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Day to Day NE NSW / QLD weather

Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by Jellybeans, Jul 4, 2019.

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  1. Lani

    Lani One of Us

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    Our forecasts are so changeable day to day at the moment. One moment we look to get a possible couple of showers or storms, then nothing, then storms, then nothing, then showers, it changes twice a day for today, tomorrow and the following two days. It's so frustrating. I give up, it's so desperate now that any late changes in forecasting are just another kick in the teeth. Why are the models so unreliable at the moment or does it depend which model you're looking at?
     
  2. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    A bit of all of the above @Lani

    Because SEQ's frequently been near the eastern edge of a lot of the shower and thunderstorm activity (unlike say large sections of NSW), it's always going to be touch and go in those situations. That's always the case in those types of situations or any other kind of weather phenomena for that matter.

    In saying that, if you look back through all the posts that people have made that display say the ACCESS-C model forecast maps, you'll find that it's been extremely accurate most of the time.

    And of course there's the age old golden rule when it comes to rainfall from showers and storms - never ever pin your hopes on that kind of activity or forecast rainfall amounts if you want reasonable rainfall unless you're in the middle of a forecast widespread area of them (not dry storms) or you're lucky enough to be directly under one of the heavier showers or storms. It's pot luck unless you are.
     
  3. TweedStorm

    TweedStorm One of Us

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    Whoohoo we have a nice day with a light onshore breeze today No howling northerly or southerly . This feels more like it! Great little waves down at Snapper but crowded as expected
     
  4. Dylan Kearney

    Dylan Kearney Addicted

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    Thanks for all that info.
    I’m fairly well versed in the unpredictability of the weather and how to watch the radars
    More so just looking at discussing finer details of the actual weather set up and what the limiting factors are.
     
  5. PlumbBob

    PlumbBob One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    ok, sorry, thought you were new/ish with 11 post's - thnx for reply, 10-4
     
  6. Batten down the hatches

    Batten down the hatches One of Us

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    Strange day on the Sunshine Coast today - the drive to work had wet greasy roads and it’s continued to have the lightest of rain all day, it’s literally like mist/fog haha nothing on the radar....not complaining though as light as it is my grass seems to be getting a nice soaking from it. When are we creating a new thread for Sunday or is it still too far out
     
  7. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    And another late season typhoon barrelling across the Phillipine Sea. It really does make you wonder what's going on, why there is so much energy up there compared to down here in the SH (not just Australia but the SH in general). Probably best left for another thread though.
     
  8. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

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    Can understand you're frustration Brisbane's forecast for next week is 34,35,34,35,36. Be interesting to see if that forecast holds. I don't think I can recall Brisbane having so many days in the mid 30's ? Ipswich and Gatton I can understand
     
  9. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

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    The thing that gets me is where is all the evaporation going from the Coral and Tasman sea? I'm presuming it's being transported to another part of the world and dumping that region with rain ? I'm sure there are flooding rains in some part of the world as I type this?
     
  10. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

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    Pretty much what @PlumbBob stated. By Saturday morning the Access C model can give a indication on where activity is likely to develop etc but it's never !00% even though that model has been pretty good at forecasting the development of storm activity and the direction. The storm I chased on the sunny coast a few weeks back, the Access C model nailed the forecast on that particular occasion.
     
  11. Chilled

    Chilled Addicted

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    I'm keen on doing a thread for the weekend later tonight, but probs won't get around to it. just a quick glance Saturday could have some potential even early Sunday morning profiles are moist, should see cloudy skys that morning maybe some showers, but by the afternoon it could become more unstable with strong shear I'd like to see a more direct thread on the setup aswell.
     
  12. comet

    comet One of Us

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    I Agree Mega - it really does make you wonder what is going on. My "internal radar" can't read the signals anymore. Not that it was ever brilliantly accurate, but now it has no idea where it is going.
     
  13. Stumer1

    Stumer1 One of Us

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    Been a while since we've seen a storm like this,

     
  14. comet

    comet One of Us

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    Yes - it is puzzling.
    I can't understand why we are selling our ground water out of the country. To me that is nonsensical. Surely we need that groundwater precisely for droughts like this.
     
  15. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

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    Totally Agree with you there
     
  16. Seabreezes

    Seabreezes One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    PlumbBob, Chilled, one drop and 6 others like this.
  17. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    @Gleno71 i like to look at the recent total Precipitable water estimates that are near real time here http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-ti...colors&prod=global2&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5
    Shows animations for up to five days past. And satellite water vapour image animations as well.
    They provide a unique understanding of water in the air but neither are perfect.
     
  18. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Don’t give up.
    Just remember some situations are tougher than others.
     
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  19. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    Much cooler today with the maximum temperature slightly below average. The temperature was variable during the late morning to mid afternoon. During the late morning and middle of the day the temperature was stable or falling before rising in the afternoon. Dew point was near average and rose during the morning and early afternoon before becoming stable. Relative humidity was quite stable today and near average. Wind have been S to ESE in the morning, ESE to ENE from the late morning, ENE to NE from the late afternoon and N to NE since 9pm.
     
  20. Retired Weather Man

    Retired Weather Man One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Location:
    Wynnum North - Brisbane - Queensland
    WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER
    DATE...29 NOV 2019 TIME....0735
    CURRENT TEMPERATURE...24.8C
    CURRENT HUMIDITY........80%
    CURRENT DEW POINT.......21C
    CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED..NNW 10Kph
    CURRENT VISIBILITY......18KM
    CURRENT MSL PRESSURE...1018.4Hpa
    CURRENT CLOUD..........1/8 Cu, 5/8 Ac, 6/8 Ac
    CURRENT WEATHER......Smoke haze
    RAIN SINCE 0900 THURSDAY...0.0mm
    SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS
    YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.........28.2C
    THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP......21.9C
    PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..+2.10C
    THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN.....21.2C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......21C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP........1016.3Hpa
    PAST 24 HOURS MAX WIND GUST...E 24kph at 0922
    PAST 24 HR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER...Smoke haze.
     
  21. Seaweed

    Seaweed Hard Yards

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    Probably most of the moisture ended up in India
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10...ill-likely-delay-onset-of-wet-season/11624550
     
  22. PeteJ

    PeteJ One of Us

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    Seeing we are briefly back on this thread I'll quickly write this. With my limited abilities to read models after we get through the westerlies, there seems to be a serious heat build-up happening over Australia towards the end of next week. Now back to the new thread.
     
  23. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    Location:
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    Ferny Grove Weather
    Date: 29 Nov 2019
    Time: 7:55 AM

    Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 20.3 C
    Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 28.6 C
    Min Ground Temp: 18.9 C
    Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm
    Temperature: 26.2 C
    Relative Humidity: 58 %
    Dew Point: 17.3 C
    MSL Pressure: 1018.1 hPa
    Wind Speed: 12kph - light breeze
    Wind Direction: NNE

    Present Weather: Smoke haze
    Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
    Cloud Cover: 5/8
    Ground State: Ground dry

    Notes of yesterday weather - 28/11/19: Fine. Cloudy with sc and ci clouds in the morning with cloud clearing from the early afternoon becoming cloud-free late in the afternoon. Smoke haze. A warm morning with the temperature stable early in the day. The temperature was variable from the late morning to mid afternoon and was temporarily stable or fell during the late morning to early afternoon. Dew point was near average rising during from early in the day and stabilsing in the afternoon and evening. Moderately low relative humidity early and near average for the rest of the day. Light S to SE winds early in the day becoming S to ESE from mid morning, ESE to ENE from the late morning, ENE to NE from the late afternoon and N to NE later in the evening.

    Today: Near average and stable dew point. Before sunrise the temperature mostly rose or was stable before falling from 3am. Relative humidity have been near average so far today. Light NW to NE winds and calm between 4 am and 6am.
     
  24. WarwickEye2Sky

    WarwickEye2Sky One of Us

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    We had a nice little lightning active cell approach us from the west yesterday evening. It would have been a direct hit if it didn’t completely fall apart before arrival.
     
  25. WarwickEye2Sky

    WarwickEye2Sky One of Us

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    5mm here so far this month and 1.8mm at the official gauge here. Hope we can score a decent downpour during the next 3 days...
     
  26. Michael Hauber

    Michael Hauber One of Us

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    Low level moisture flows show persistent easterly anomalies in the east Indian Ocean associated with IOD, and persistent westerlies in West Pacific associated with modoki el nino. This leaves a gap over Indonesia/PNG and so air moves in from the south east to fill this gap. So our moisture is being shifted towards Africa and India in the Indian Ocean, and out into the central North West Pacific (easterly anomalies further east so its not making it as far as the Americas).

    925mb anomalous winds Aug 1 to Nov 26:

    Also look at SLP and pressure is much higher in general over Australia. So as well as the low level flows there is a general sinking over Australia, which means that surface air is being mixed with dryer air from above.

    SLP anomalies Aug 1 to Nov 26

     
  27. PeteJ

    PeteJ One of Us

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  28. PlumbBob

    PlumbBob One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Thats interesting to know, MH, Aus, the biggest Isl in the world surrounded by oceans and yet the evap of them dont fall on this land smack in the middle of it all, well, not like it used to.
    Thnx, I can understand that, makes very good sense, I think.
     
  29. Inclement Weather

    Inclement Weather Hard Yards

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    I'm not sure whether it is appropriate to post here about the judgment this morning by the NSW Supreme Court finding for the plaintiff in the representative action against the dam operators (SEQ Water, SunWater, and Queensland Government). The judgment can be found at this link: https://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/nsw/NSWSC//2019/1657.html. It's a well written judgment that is easy to follow - you don't have to be a lawyer to understand it. The upshot is that the judge found that the dam engineers breached their duty of care by negligently ignoring the Dam Manual by assessing water inflows based on rain that had already fallen with existing inflows rather than taking into account the forecast heavy rain; and thereby, did not release water earlier to protect the large urban area downstream, but rather withheld it to prioritise the protection of local rural bridges. Indeed there was a declared flood event that ended on the 2 January despite the forecast for heavy rain in the week ahead. The judge held that the flood event should have continued in compliance with the manual, which would have allowed for releases, but another flood event was not declared until the 6 January, and by the time actual releases commenced on the 7 January, it was too late for any meaningful mitigation measure. The judge, at the end of the day, simply rejected the engineers' evidence as unreliable. It is significant that the Manual was revised in 2009 to place greater emphasis on forecast rain rather than water already on the ground. It seems that the engineers did not get the memo. The irony is that despite the releases, not a single bridge was inundated as a result of it - so they saved the bridges but sadly not the downstream urban areas.
     
  30. Nic Bri

    Nic Bri One of Us

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    I read this too today, from what I can see the next flood event will be just as bad. I have shot so much work for land development and developers over the past 8 years. I am continuously astounded at some of the sites that are given the go ahead for new residential suburbs or tower developments with underground car parks. They are areas that are clearly flood plain and will ultimately flood at one point or another regardless of what amount of mitigation occurs upstream.
     
  31. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I understand what you are saying @Inclement Weather but it is not quite that simple. And for the last sentence, the two most important bridges Fernvale and Mt Crosby were inundated deliberately as decisions to release water.
    I was not involved in the 2011 floods, but I know the difficulties of the job those engineers had. I know them personally, and I think today’s judgment is not a fair reflection of their integrity and genuine care.
    I am not a weather expert but I know weather is very complex, is not consistent, and likewise forecasting is not consistent. Uncertainty is a key challenge. I know that precipitation is one of the most difficult weather outcomes to predict and to get it right for intensity, location and timing. I do have a lot of knowledge of flooding and I know that even if the rain errors are small then flood estimate errors can be much larger. When multiple catchments are involved the uncertainty is big.
    I am a big fan of weather forecasting for intelligence of what may happen. It has improved a lot and I continue to be impressed by how forecasts can be great but also note some are dismal. How do you know which forecasts, which products, are right, at the time, and then consistent then across multiple events.
    I really don’t think you can look at the forecast millimeters and make decisions about floods with heavy reliance on forecasts when there are competing risks with extraordinary consequences.
    I know forecasts are not perfect. You can’t ignore them, but you can’t fully rely on them either. How forecasting is used depends on the stakes involved. Inconvenience like I forgot my umbrella is annoying but I would still work with the forecast for that because the downside risk is low. Taking actions with reliance on forecasts that may cause impacts to others is another thing, and then much more difficult when there are huge stakes involved. 3 million people rely on the water supply from that dam. 300,000 people lives are stake if that dam failed. There were about 7000 people in the class action.
    The main thing that I am concerned about is that the judgement only analysed the forecasts for the 2011 flood and supposedly there was a way it could have been a different outcome is something different was done with those forecasts. Many other rain events are different to that and forecasts also. I think this has a long ways to go.
    The potential solutions lie in some sort of forecast confidence. And I don’t mean probability of precipitation outputs, it needs to be something like x% chance of rain in the region, y% chance it will happen on a specific catchment, and z% chance the catchment downstream will have rain at same time delayed, or earlier.
    Can models do that ? I don’t know.
    Do we need expert meteorologists to vet or judge the weather models?yes.
    End rant, but it is a touchy subject for me.
     
    #2881 Flowin, Nov 29, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2019
  32. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep totally agree.
     
  33. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    #2883 Flowin, Nov 29, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2019
  34. sharkbait

    sharkbait One of Us

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    A very localised patch of rain here at Burleigh atm. An unfamiliar sound on the roof!
     
  35. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    A slightly warm day with the temperature a bit variable in the morning. The dew point is remaining near average and been mostly stable today. Relative humidity also was near average over the entire day. Light N to NE winds became E to NE from the mid morning, ENE to NE from mid afternoon and became NW to NE in the evening.
     
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  36. Retired Weather Man

    Retired Weather Man One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Location:
    Wynnum North - Brisbane - Queensland
    WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER
    DATE...30 NOV 2019 TIME....0735
    CURRENT TEMPERATURE...25.8C
    CURRENT HUMIDITY........71%
    CURRENT DEW POINT.......20C
    CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED..NNW 17Kph
    CURRENT VISIBILITY......25KM
    CURRENT MSL PRESSURE...1014.4Hpa
    CURRENT CLOUD..........1/8 Ci
    CURRENT WEATHER......Smoke haze
    RAIN SINCE 0900 FRIDAY...0.0mm
    SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS
    YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.........29.6C
    THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP......22.0C
    PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..+2.85C
    THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN.....21.3C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......21C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP........1015.9Hpa
    PAST 24 HOURS MAX WIND GUST...N 36kph at 1637
    PAST 24 HR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER...Smoke haze.

    Re Brisbane floods. We of course will pay for it. Up again will go rego, water, tolls, fares, power prices, infrastructure will be put back ( again ).
     
  37. TweedStorm

    TweedStorm One of Us

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    We had a real nice late evening storm roll through here late evening and delivering 10 mls rain. Nothing serious but one loud CG nearby stirred things up. Hoping for something similar late today.
     
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  38. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    Location:
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    Ferny Grove Weather
    Date: 30 Nov 2019
    Time: 8:30 AM

    Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 20.2 C
    Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 31.9 C
    Min Ground Temp: 18.8 C
    Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm
    Temperature: 28.9 C
    Relative Humidity: 47 %
    Dew Point: 16.5 C
    MSL Pressure: 1013.7 hPa
    Wind Speed: 8 kph - light breeze
    Wind Direction: NNE

    Present Weather: Smoke haze
    Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
    Cloud Cover: 0/8
    Ground State: Ground dry

    Notes of yesterday weather - 29/11/19: Fine and partly cloudy with cu and sc clouds and easing in the afternoon. The temperature was variable from mid to late morning. Mostly light NW to NE winds in the early hours, becoming E to NE from the mid morning, ENE to NE from mid afternoon and NW to NE in the evening.

    Today: Light NE to NW winds today with some calm winds in the early hours of today. Dew point have been near average and stable. Relative humidity was near average overnight though has fallen quite quickly this morning.
     
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  39. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    #2889 Ken Kato, Nov 30, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 30, 2019
  40. Stumer1

    Stumer1 One of Us

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    The atmosphere around Australia is behaving like we're in a strong El Nino at the moment, let's hope that it breaks down like one and it gets very wet.
     
  41. Retired Weather Man

    Retired Weather Man One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wynnum North November 2019 data and spring summary.

    Nov...... Average temp 0.75C above average, rainfall 40% of average.

    Spring...Average temp 0.55C above average, rainfall 135.2mm ( average 231mm )

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  42. Wetdreams

    Wetdreams Hard Yards

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    This cloud formation caught my eye when driving back from the beach earlier.
    Didn’t get to see it changing, but looked like the top was shot out of a cannon.
     
  43. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Rainfall analyses for November above. Not surprisingly, a sad sorry tale yet again.
     
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  44. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Next week for us from Monday:
    36C
    36C
    37C
    38C
    37C
    36C

    Gympie:
    38C
    36C
    38C
    39C
    39C
    39C

    If that's not a heatwave, I don't know what is.
     
  45. comet

    comet One of Us

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    I passionately agree! Building on a flood plain is morally reprehensible.
    I had better stop before I say things I will regret.
    But I will continue a little.
    In my opinion flood areas need to be turned into parks and never ever, ever have buildings built upon them.
    Is there no end to blind, ruthless greed? Where has our humanity gone?
    Here endeth this rant...
    :whistle:
     
  46. comet

    comet One of Us

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    Yes! let's hope so. Goodbye dry, horrible La Nina....please do not come back.
     
  47. Bone Dry

    Bone Dry One of Us

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    I think the term is Weathergeddon.
     
  48. Retired Weather Man

    Retired Weather Man One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
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    Location:
    Wynnum North - Brisbane - Queensland
    WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER
    DATE...1 DEC 2019 TIME....0735
    CURRENT TEMPERATURE...25.7C
    CURRENT HUMIDITY........79%
    CURRENT DEW POINT.......22C
    CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED..N 15Kph
    CURRENT VISIBILITY......20KM
    CURRENT MSL PRESSURE...1008.4Hpa
    CURRENT CLOUD..........1/8 Cu, 2/8 Sc, 5/8 Ac, 3/8 CiCc
    CURRENT WEATHER......Smoke haze
    RAIN SINCE 0900 SATURDAY...0.0mm
    SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS
    YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.........29.8C
    THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP......21.6C
    PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..+1.20C
    THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN.....21.4C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......21C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP........1010.5Hpa
    PAST 24 HOURS MAX WIND GUST...N 50kph at 1419
    PAST 24 HR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER...Smoke haze throughout. Brief thunderstorm early Saturday night.
     
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  49. Stumer1

    Stumer1 One of Us

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    I'm seeing 34, 35, 37 and 37 for Kingaroy this week, won't be long before 40 is predicted. I wonder what happen if it never rains again?
     
  50. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    Location:
    Ferny Grove, QLD
    Ferny Grove Summary for November and Spring 2019. Well below average rainfall, hot days and cool nights.

     
    Seabreezes, DDstorm, Gleno71 and 4 others like this.