Day to Day NE NSW / QLD

Nature's Fury II

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Dec 25, 2021
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I think you're going to have to update your rain event maps Ken. Some good rain accumulations yesterday. Amazing how much a whole day of light rain can add up.

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As others have said, very warm and humid today. Definitely not what you expect in May. Current obs at Brisbane are 25.1/22.4 (apparent 28.3) and Archerfield are 25.9/22.8 (apparent 29). Also been having trouble with the front door since Thursday.

Regarding the upcoming potential for this weekend I think a lot is going to depend on the strength of that high pressure system coming across. At the moment the timing and angling is going to work against any system up north significantly affecting the Qld coast. It's a strong high with high pressure arcing up very high into southern Queensland.

1. On approach it is angled NE-SW sending ridging right up into SE QLD. That will keep the troughing well to the north, probably north of WBB and likely very coastal or offshore.

2. The ridging flattens out as the high passes underneath Australia into the Tasman but by that time the trough may already be dug in very coastal or offshore and is unlikely to retrograde back into eastern Qld.

3. A low pressure system may be spawned by the trough but at this stage the high is firmly planted in the Tasman and now sending the usual ridge pattern into central Qld. This would encourage the low to move to the SE further into the ocean.

The earlier runs for this rain event late last week had a very weak high which allowed for the trough and possible low pressure system to form right over eastern Qld and have a significant impact. Not so much now that EC and GFS are in agreement over the formation of a strong high.

There's still a degree of uncertainty though as we are still about 4 days out, it's a multi-phase system with the usual unpredictability for trough/low combinations and some of the EC ensembles have land impacts. Biggest risk would be for central Qld who would probably be impacted to some extent but they need the rain and flood potential is a lot less in those drier areas. We in SEQ may dodge a bullet on this one though considering its huge rain-bearing potential.
 

Ken Kato

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I think you're going to have to update your rain event maps Ken. Some good rain accumulations yesterday. Amazing how much a whole day of light rain can add up.

SEQ 14-15.5.22.png


As others have said, very warm and humid today. Definitely not what you expect in May. Current obs at Brisbane are 25.1/22.4 (apparent 28.3) and Archerfield are 25.9/22.8 (apparent 29). Also been having trouble with the front door since Thursday.

Regarding the upcoming potential for this weekend I think a lot is going to depend on the strength of that high pressure system coming across. At the moment the timing and angling is going to work against any system up north significantly affecting the Qld coast. It's a strong high with high pressure arcing up very high into southern Queensland.

1. On approach it is angled NE-SW sending ridging right up into SE QLD. That will keep the troughing well to the north, probably north of WBB and likely very coastal or offshore.

2. The ridging flattens out as the high passes underneath Australia into the Tasman but by that time the trough may already be dug in very coastal or offshore and is unlikely to retrograde back into eastern Qld.

3. A low pressure system may be spawned by the trough but at this stage the high is firmly planted in the Tasman and now sending the usual ridge pattern into central Qld. This would encourage the low to move to the SE further into the ocean.

The earlier runs for this rain event late last week had a very weak high which allowed for the trough and possible low pressure system to form right over eastern Qld and have a significant impact. Not so much now that EC and GFS are in agreement over the formation of a strong high.

There's still a degree of uncertainty though as we are still about 4 days out, it's a multi-phase system with the usual unpredictability for trough/low combinations and some of the EC ensembles have land impacts. We may dodge a bullet on this one though considering its huge rain-bearing potential.

Indeed @Nature's Fury II , there was a scattering of 25-100mm falls since 9am yesterday. Upper Sprinbrook was one of the places which tipped over 100mm - post from earlier this morning in the event thread at: https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/a...sw-8-to-15-may-2022.91418/page-9#post-5058834
 

Nature's Fury II

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Indeed @Nature's Fury II , there was a scattering of 25-100mm falls since 9am yesterday. Upper Sprinbrook was one of the places which tipped over 100mm - post from earlier this morning in the event thread at: https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/a...sw-8-to-15-may-2022.91418/page-9#post-5058834
Missed that, thanks. Always amazing how Springbrook racks up the falls. It's interesting though that for the Feb and May rain events this year it has been the D'aguilar Ranges copping the biggest falls. In most rain events it's usually Springbrook.
 

Nic Bri

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I woke up during the night sweating....worrying I had the spicy cough....nope just the humidity. Pics
My yard yesterday with overflowing back gutter
On a walk today this is normally a dry dirt track there is that much water leaching out the hills its now a stream
Dog post bath begrudgingly trying to dry off after being covered in mud from the dog park.
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AnnerleyX1

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Apparent temperatures pipped 30 today. Can’t ever remember that happening in May. All the Indian summer high 20s days I remember happening in years past this late in autumn have been dry northwesterly influenced ones.
Our doors to the house are always gripping to the frame when the humidity levels reach this high. Also, did anyone experience their tiled floors were actually sweating today? I couldn't believe it, never has this ever happened before. The fridge and toilets were dripping with condensation, just insane I tell ya!!

Yep, all of my doorknobs are sweating too, and walking around the concrete floors of the house leaves footprints. Bet there’s gonna be a big mould problem around town in the coming weeks…
 

Warlock_01

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Apparent temperatures pipped 30 today. Can’t ever remember that happening in May. All the Indian summer high 20s days I remember happening in years past this late in autumn have been dry northwesterly influenced ones.


Yep, all of my doorknobs are sweating too, and walking around the concrete floors of the house leaves footprints. Bet there’s gonna be a big mould problem around town in the coming weeks…
Yep for sure, we've had a mould issue here in the hinterland for a while with this wet weather, and growing now at a rapid rate, very hard to get it under control at the moment. After this big wet is over, a lot of chlorine or 30 seconds will be sprayed!
 

Ken Kato

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It's still raining here in Bonogin and the radar isn't picking it up. Must be some major orographic lift from the surrounding mountains, unbelievable!

Lots of small specks showing up so maybe one of them started to develop right over you before the next radar frame, or they're occurring under the radar beam being the shallow drizzly showers that they are.
 

Proudyno1

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Dec 29, 2021
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Our doors to the house are always gripping to the frame when the humidity levels reach this high. Also, did anyone experience their tiled floors were actually sweating today? I couldn't believe it, never has this ever happened before. The fridge and toilets were dripping with condensation, just insane I tell ya!!
Yep its been insane today. First time I have ever put the AC on dry mode, it was just so uncomfortable with dew points approaching 26.5 at 2:00pm. The random slow-moving moderate showers aren't helping either.
 

smeagols_ghost

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Missed that, thanks. Always amazing how Springbrook racks up the falls. It's interesting though that for the Feb and May rain events this year it has been the D'aguilar Ranges copping the biggest falls. In most rain events it's usually Springbrook.
Surprisingly problematic. The roads and infrastructure need significant work to make them more resilient to being washed out but negotiations with the locals and national parks are long.

Been up there multiple times for landslips in my short time working on the coast.

Some very interesting properties up on top of the range.

Beautiful rainforest thou, watch out for stinging plants.
 
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Ken Kato

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Forecast min values of the Fog Stability Index for overnight tonight/tomorrow morning which takes into account the stability and moisture in the lower atmosphere as well as wind speeds above the ground.

A pea-souper remains a possibility for many areas (fog has started forming in some areas already) especially with the sodden ground and min temps forecast to reach the current dewpoints, but fog potential will be lower in areas where low cloud stays too extensive for too long or doesn’t lower to ground level.

Fog remains a possibility for the first couple of days this working week in some areas.
 
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Timbuck

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Gold Coast Hinterland and the Border Ranges are getting hammered right now, looks like its moving into the tweed catchment as well.

yep. hasn’t stopped here at highland park all day , just drizzle and crap. And then the last few hrs solid rain.

just got back from cairn , Tully , Lucinda…. With a proper deluge and came back to this.

I can not complain , yes fishing got stuffed up.. but my house is on a hill. Very grateful for that.
sure not looking forward to the end of the week with another wet signal on the way.
I did manage to capture a white rainbow on the flight home.
I’ve never seen one. Very cool.

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Nature's Fury II

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Dec 25, 2021
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Ken by pea-souper do you mean just a thick low fog or a thick low fog that will linger well into tomorrow morning?

And good falls again today. GC has almost had its own mini-event in the last 48 hours to make up for their relative lack of rain in the main event late last week. A number of locations in the hinterland approaching 100 mm for the last 24 hours.
 

Gleno71

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Ken by pea-souper do you mean just a thick low fog or a thick low fog that will linger well into tomorrow morning?

And good falls again today. GC has almost had its own mini-event in the last 48 hours to make up for their relative lack of rain in the main event late last week. A number of locations in the hinterland approaching 100 mm for the last 24 hours.
Thats what's confusing me ..main event over but now we are getting the heavy rains.
 

Gleno71

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Wonder when "Winter" will start...at this rate might not be for another 5 weeks. Winter in qld already is short but we might only get 1.5 to 2 months cool.
Definitely a shorter winter in SE Qld when compared to Sydney, though this time last year I'm fairly certain we were getting single digit minimums
 

Nature's Fury II

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Thats what's confusing me ..main event over but now we are getting the heavy rains.

Maybe something to do with the upper low still in place offshore the Whitsundays and funneling inflow around to the south-east? If you look on satellite there's a huge tail of moisture up to PNG. I'm guessing a little bit of moisture injection on the far southern edge of that tail over GC. Ken will be able to answer this one accurately.
 

Nature's Fury II

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Someone posted earlier that the record for latest date reaching 15 minimum in Brisbane was May 18th or something? Our delayed cold days/nights reminds me of 2010 when Brisbane didnt reach 30 for the first time that spring/summer until the second week of December (for comparison it normally does in late September, early October at the very latest).
 

Flowin

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A rough attempt at streamflow volume tally that is not caught by dams this year. Mary River down to the border where gauges are available.
1. Mary River at Moy Pocket
around 950,000 megalitres (ML)

2. Lockyer Creek to Clarendon
around 700,000 ML

3. Bremer River to Walloon
around 400,000 ML

4. Warrill Creek to Amberley
around 400,000 ML

5. Logan River to Yarrahappini
around 1,300,000 ML

6. Nerang River to Glenhurst (mostly spill from Hinze Dam)
around 200,000 Ml

That alone only where gauges are available is around 4 million ML.
Could probably add another 2 million for Wivenhoe releases not counted in the gauges above
And also another say 1 to 1.5 million for other catchments without reliable downstream volume accumulation gauges or gauges I have excluded like Albert River, Pine River, Caboolture River, Sunshine Coast creeks and rivers, plus the catchment areas downstream of the gauges included above.

So maybe all up around maybe 7 to 8 million megalitres flowing to the ocean this year so far between Mary River and the Border. Certainly not an average flowing year!

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Vinny

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Yeppoon only had about 3 maybe 4 nights in the 20s in May last year . I remember all windows closed , doona on etc.. Stopped using ceiling fan mid April as season just changed and it got cool and less humid like a switch went off .


Looks like some sort of wet stuff here on Friday. Saturday and Sunday or showers or maybe just drizzle . Probably 20mm here 10mm in Rockhampton then it moves south and 200 mm south again i bet.
 

AnnerleyX1

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Someone posted earlier that the record for latest date reaching 15 minimum in Brisbane was May 18th or something? Our delayed cold days/nights reminds me of 2010 when Brisbane didnt reach 30 for the first time that spring/summer until the second week of December (for comparison it normally does in late September, early October at the very latest).
Yeah, that was me. Just had another look at the data, and it was the 16th in 1965 and the 18th in 1980. Both of those months were much cooler than this one though, averaging around 16C, and neither month saw a single minimum above 20C. Obviously it’s the 16th now and it’s struggling to drop below 22C, and the next few nights are looking pretty toasty, so might as well call that record broken already.

Looking ahead… there’s an outside chance that it could drop below 15C on Thursday or Friday morning, but it depends when that showery stuff moves in from the south east I guess. Then we’ve got another damp cloudy weekend, so I’m gonna place my bets on the Monday or Tuesday after that being our first sub-15C morning. Which is just absurd considering our May average is ~14C…
 

Ken Kato

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Maybe something to do with the upper low still in place offshore the Whitsundays and funneling inflow around to the south-east? If you look on satellite there's a huge tail of moisture up to PNG. I'm guessing a little bit of moisture injection on the far southern edge of that tail over GC. Ken will be able to answer this one accurately.

I wasn't keeping close tabs on it but from what I saw, it looked like a case of local orographic uplift of the light moisture-laden NNE flow. When the air's has that much moisture, it doesn't take much for air parcels to rise, even if the broader region's instability isn't strong.

One thing I did notice was towering cumulus clouds at dusk yesterday towards that general direction so there would've been a bit of instability around at the time.... just not broadly strong (the updrafts didn't look to reach high altitudes judging by the WV imagery).
 

Ken Kato

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A further 106mm of rainfall was recorded since 9am yesterday by the Clagiraba Road alert gauge in the vicinity of Mt Tamborine while the Mt Tamborine alert gauge itself recorded 100mm in that time period.

Brisbane’s min temp so far overnight/this morning is 21.8C – this is 8C above our May average min temp and more impressively, it's even a touch higher than our average midsummer min temp (which is 21.6C for Jan at the current CBD site).

Also, if this doesn’t fall any further before the official 9am reset time, it'll only be 0.1C short of equallng our record for highest min temp for May (which was 21.9C set in both 1892 at the previous site and 2016 at the current site).

Some places on the NSW coast have even broken their records for highest May min temp. For example, Grafton Research Station's min temp so far this morning is 21.5C which is unlikely to drop too much more before the 9am reset, and beats their previous record of 18.8C.... but this site doesn't have a terribly long record.
Port Macquarie has equaled their record of 19.8C.

Meanwhile, here are the lights of a rather ghostly-looking Brisbane glowing through the fog as captured by the Emporium Hotel webcam overnight and early this morning.
 
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Vinny

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We've had this humidity plus our summer was muggier than usual combined with clear sunny days barely any winds...not much rain...only thing making it bearable just is the sun is not feeling as strong .our may is usually 15.7deg average min. Still running the aircon in dry mode in one room at night...never had to do that in 10years I've been here....this isn't north qld.

Feels like here we've had no relief from humidity since October. This rain in May hasn't dropped the humidity much.

Even though lack of rain the humidity must be the reason why the lawn is still growing with some rain every 10 days needs mowing since October....weeds growing fast too .normally now it slows down and thenno mowing until late september.

20 deg here this morning 100pc humidity ...crazy.....
 

Nic Bri

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Had to cancel the bushwalking activity at Kumbartcho this Wednesday. It seems really sodden and wet grounds to do hiking and bushwalking around our region these days.
It certainly is, whenever I go for a walk in the reserves I periodically check to see if there are leeches on me it feels that tropic around here. :emoji_face_palm:
 

Falling_Droplet

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fernygroveweather.com
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 16 May 2022
Time: 9:30 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 20.8 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 26.7 C
Min Ground Temp: 18.3 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 3.3 mm

Temperature: 25.1 C
Relative Humidity: 85 %
Dew Point: 22.4 C
MSL Pressure: 1014.2 hPa
Wind Speed: Calm
Wind Direction: Calm

Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 4/8
Ground State: Ground moist

Notes of yesterday weather - 15/5/22: Cloudy periods with Cu and Sc clouds. Early morning fog on surrounding forest. Light showers from early until the middle of the day. Very hot from early while the temperature rose very slowly before rising a little more quickly in the morning while easing to hot and then to warm from the mid morning. The minimum temperature occurred at 9am yesterday and yesterday's maximum temperature occurred 9am today. The temperature eased to slightly warm later in the morning and was temporarily near average during the middle of the day. From the mid afternoon the temperature fell that became warm late in the afternoon, hot during the evening and very hot late in the evening. Dew point was high that rose very slowly from early and more quickly during the morning, fell slowly from the middle of the day, more quickly from the mid afternoon and very slowly in the evening. Relative humidity was elevated, stable, near saturation and 100 % at times from early, which was close to average, quickly becoming very high from the mid morning. Relative humidity fell a little during the afternoon, while remaining very high before rising from the mid afternoon and became stable in the evening, easing to moderately high in the early evening and slightly above average later in the evening. Light ESE to NE winds from early before shifting to ESE to ENE in the mid morning with some S to SE winds later in the morning. In the afternoon were E to NE winds before tending N to ENE later in the afternoon with mostly calm winds in the evening.

Today: Early morning fog on the surrounding forest. Very hot from early with the temperature generally stable, before easing to hot early this morning as the temperature started to rise. Dew point remains high that was generally stable from early before rising this morning. Relative humidity was stable from early, close to average before starting to fall this morning, moderately high. Calm winds early with some E winds at times before tending to S to WSW from late in the early hours with periods of calm winds and some W to NW winds this morning.
 

Ken Kato

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Mins look for SEQ/NE NSW look like staying above average for quite awhile as per the EPSgrams above for Lismore and Brisbane.

At least the max temps look like coming down later this week and weekend although probably still with a fair bit of moisture present with the possible increase in rainfall.

A number of members of the ensemble still trying to push some westerlies through towards the end of this month but not many of them are keen for those westerlies to be particularly strong or causing a big drop in max temps yet.
 
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