More rain ? oh we needed that 
Sure looks stormy just now
Sure looks stormy just now
Day to Day NE NSW / QLD
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Summery night during the descent into winter
Despite only being two-and-a-half weeks from the start of winter, parts of the southeast have had a record-breaking hot night more typically seen in the heart of summer. In NSW, Yamba sweated through its hottest May night in 112 years of records, staying above 22.1°C all night. In comparison...
www.weatherzone.com.au
Min temp percentile rankings for yesterday morning (for most places).
And a WZ article about the unseasonably warm min temps (record-breaking in some places in NSW) in the SE of Australia which also extended to the ski resorts in the VIC/NSW alpine region.
Wow that was dramatic for a while.
Initially thought it was hail , not even joking
Massive drops of rain, really heavy and slow
Yep same here, just got huge drops of rain which almost sounded a bit like hail and now it's absolutely roaring down.So humid here I put the washing out quite early and next to no breeze ,overcast ....can't get it dry. Hopefully tomorrow.
They had the festival of the wind south of here on the weekend but there was no wind down on the beach.
Forecast has Se wind picking up later on in the week up to 50km hr on bom meteye making feels like temps around 20 21 rather than 27 28 like now ....should keep any potential mozzie away2 loads of washing taken down before heavy shower here. So much for a day of the week with minimal amount of rain forecasted! Nothing ever get dry!Looks like central qld might get more out of this Friday and Saturday's system than se qld.
Great news @Vinny. We don't need anymore down in the SE!
Random heavy showers
Sun trying it's best to dry it out
Has a front moved thru that has triggered this latest rain? Weather on the GC was nice around lunch time now looks bad again ?
Can confirm this shower was heavy we flew through western edge of it and the sudden sound of the drops hitting the 172 startled me.
Yep same here, just got huge drops of rain which almost sounded a bit like hail and now it's absolutely roaring down.
Yes crazy night time temps! We are exactly 7c above average for the month. If this long range GFS forecast comes true, we will be in for quite a shock.
Summery night during the descent into winter
Despite only being two-and-a-half weeks from the start of winter, parts of the southeast have had a record-breaking hot night more typically seen in the heart of summer. In NSW, Yamba sweated through its hottest May night in 112 years of records, staying above 22.1°C all night. In comparison...
www.weatherzone.com.au
Min temp percentile rankings for yesterday morning (for most places).
And a WZ article about the unseasonably warm min temps (record-breaking in some places in NSW) in the SE of Australia which also extended to the ski resorts in the VIC/NSW alpine region.Mowed the lawn this afternoon the lawn was still wet like it is in the early morning. There's no "dryness' in the air.
I was coming home this evening and the outside of the windscreen was fogging up and only way to fix it was keep the wipers going.
It has been the same here in Sydney. It happens on my way to work every day before sunrise.
I'm sorry mate, but seriously, it's about time you gave the whinging about everything a rest.
It is really becoming tiresome reading your posts.
Ken has been extraordinarily patient.Uh oh, don't let the media know this one. It's actually meteorologically correct:
*Smaller thunderstorms that occur with rotating updrafts are referred to as mini supercells.
(p. 394 of Ahrens, Meteorology Today, 12th Edition).
I am rather over this heavy wet air.
I got a 375ml can of beer out of the fridge when I got home and got distracted for 20mins. I reckon the condensation on the outside of the can in those 20mins outside the can exceeded the 375ml in the can
The last 24 hrs satellite estimated total precipitable water gives good context for the bigger picture of the atmospheric moisture flows.
No wonder those small cells on the radar have so much juice in them. They're literally tapping into the tip of that atmospheric river. Interesting to see what that big easterly trade burst looks like when transporting huge amounts of moisture.
Personally, I actually don't mind negative posts made by people about their own local weather. Doesn't bother me at all. I know everyone's different though.
It's only when they take out their frustrations on other people (and any posts they make) in unprovoked attacks and mocking which irritates me. That really crosses the line for me.
A few more images from overnight last night and this morning from the Emporium Hotel webcam overlooking part of the Brisbane CBD.
Also the latest 10-day chance of rainfall graph for Brisbane from the CMC/GEFS/Navy grand ensemble.
Actually managed to get a further 35mm here locally from yesterday's stuff.
I seem to be the latest victim of the big mould outbreak - I noticed yesterday that mould was now growing on my kitchen floor in front of my fridge. And having trouble opening my internal doors. First time I've ever seen either of those things happen at my place in my 40 years of living here.
Some lingering weak instability around today into part of tomorrow but any thunder potential should be very localised at best and nothing at worst.
This is the new normal in Toowoomba...
Pic just now
So still , not a breath of breeze.
The lack of big dry changes 'continent cleaners' is quite astonishing so far this year. Is this simply due to variation in the long wave pattern or does la nina itself force a preferred long wave pattern/cold front regime/high positioning?Also got woken in the middle of the night by a very small but heavy shower. Not even the road here dried out over the last few days as we are in a fairly sheltered and leafy area. A remarkable period of weather over the last 6 months. Would take it any day over months of the quidge! We'll be in drought again before we know it.Heavy dump of rain around 3.00am here in inner city. Nature - thanks for your analysis re the AR- I can see why it was so heavy.
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 17 May 2022
Time: 8:10 AM
Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 20.3 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 27.7 C
Min Ground Temp: 18.6 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0.1 mm (Dew)
Temperature: 21.9 C
Relative Humidity: 99 %
Dew Point: 21.8 C
MSL Pressure: 1016.4 hPa
Wind Speed: 3 kph - light air
Wind Direction: SW
Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 5/8
Ground State: Ground moist
Notes of yesterday weather - 16/5/22: Partly cloudy with Cu and Sc clouds. Early morning fog on the surrounding forest. Very hot from early with the temperature generally stable, before easing to hot early in the morning as the temperature started to rise. The temperature briefly rose sharply in the mid morning, warm, then rose more slowly through to the maximum temperature in the middle of the day. After stable temperature, then temperature fell during the afternoon while easing to slightly warm that temporarily rose in the mid afternoon. In the evening the temperature and hot and was stable before falling a little later in the evening. Dew point was high that was generally stable from early before rising in the morning, then fell from the middle of the day before stabilising in the evening that was moderately high at times in the evening. Relative humidity was stable from early, close to average before falling in the morning, moderately high, high from the late morning and very high from the early afternoon. From the mid afternoon the relative humidity rose, becoming stable in the evening easing to moderately high early tonight, slightly above average later tonight. Calm winds early with some E winds at times before tending to S to WSW from late in the early hours with periods of calm winds before S to SW or W to SW winds in the morning, shifting to W to NW before S to SW winds in the mid morning. During the morning the wind veered to N to NE to E to NE in the middle of the day, then veered to S to WSW in the afternoon before mostly calm winds from the late afternoon.
Today: Stable temperature from early that was hot at the start of the day, becoming very hot before rising this morning while easing to hot. Dew point have been high that was stable in the early hours before rising this morning. Relative humidity have been close to average that have been stable, elevated and close to saturation. Mostly calm winds from early with some W to SSW winds early this morning and S to SW presently.
Is there any research done between the correlation of the saturated ground table and mould?
I'm just thinking about the damp and mould in relation to the water sitting just below the ground surface.
At least in SEQ I don't think the ground can hold much more water , so the "rising damp" is becoming a problem?
Obviously, humidity in the air has its own part to play.
Is there an updated map to view how saturated the ground is currently?
Cheers.
I haven't looked at the longwave patterns recently but I do know generally speaking that ENSO does interact with them, especially in lower latitudes, as does the SAM in higher latitudes.
We're so used to yearning for rain.
Haha I do that all the time though, regardless of the ongoing rain here.
I've always pondered whether I should use "at best" for the higher potential of a certain type of weather or "at worst"
Yep agreed, I think we might be in the minority when it comes to public opinion about that though haha
Reminds me of this comment I came across the other day which I also posted in here.
Depends on how shallow or deep a layer you want to look at. Here's an example showing the estimates of rootzone soil moisture as at a couple of days ago compared to normal.
Depends on how shallow or deep a layer you want to look at. Here's an example showing the estimates of rootzone soil moisture as at a couple of days ago compared to normal.
Thanks , I knew I had seen a map like that before.
That really illustrates la Nina like conditions over eastern parts of QLD.
I guess we can be thankful for the lack of cyclones this year.
Toowoomba seems to do very well with weather systems from the NE of us.All these claims of excessive dew points are a bit inverted across the state today. Had a lovely 18°C dew point this morning in Cairns. Quite the nip in the air, very pleasant.
The dew point in Brisbane just dropped below 20C for the first time since early Saturday morning.
I would say most Mays would go by without a single dew point above 18C here, given the average for May is around 10-12C.
1st and 2nd images - Yesterday’s 9am vapour pressure anomalies and min temp percentile rankings.
3rd and 4th images - Archerfield weather camera and current radar. Convection forming in similar areas to yesterday.Interesting tidbit from SEQ water:
• Approximately 454,000 megalitres has been released from Wivenhoe Dam since Friday 6 May. Completion of Drain Down will require additional releases of approximately 606,000 megalitresno matter now much rain we get , it still doesnt sit well with me to see how much we let run out to see rather than capture....
Aura glow afternoon sunset just now
Geez those cooler southeasterlies feel so nice outside compared to what it was like earlier today!
Graph of observed temp and apparent temp for Archerfield above. Time on the horizontal axis and degrees on the vertical axis.
You can also see the typical Scenic Rim ranges blocking of the cloud in those southeasterlies.
STW (automatically circled) current for that activity around the Sunshine Coast hinterlands re locally heavy rainfall as well.Will be some inflow into the Lockyer/Bremer catchments from those stationary storms. Already isolated falls of 25-50 mm.
Very nice. Been getting some beautiful sunsets up here in Cairns the last few days too. This was Friday.
Aura glow afternoon sunset just now
As we head into the (drier?) winter months, is it better to leave dam levels above 100%?
It seems ludicrous to release excess water downstream of the dams, when normal human usage can bring down the levels naturally?
There is council sign boards in Toowoomba that say Low Water restrictions , not "No" water restrictions.
So as a resident and rate payer I'm asked to conserve water but then dams are releasing excess water without a thought of actually conserving it for the lean times?
Bit of a rant I know , but confused also.
I like rivers being able to be let run for environmental flows with bigger flushing events in the mix. But this has to be weighed up with societal needs. Runoff from hard urban landscapes is highly variable peaky flow, sees water not benefitting people or the environment heading out to sea.
If I had my way, water would cost more, a lot more. There is a reasonable amount of water that people should expect to be provided at reasonable or cheap rates. Beyond that charges should increase in pretty dramatic order.
Excess capture in dams that can handle 100%+ filling should be captured with groundwater/aquifer injection programs. This makes it available for environmental purposes with gradual discharge into rivers, increasing medium and longer term base flows. Also becomes available for extraction in leaner times.
Like with a lot of things, I suspect reality's more complicated than it first seems @Rays74
As far as I understand it, the basic premise behind most dam releases such as those from Wivenhoe has always been to deal with an immediate and potentially big threat to safety if it isn't managed properly. That immediate and more certain threat has to override (and rightly so) any longer term and more strategic planning of water storage management i.e. you have to make sure there's no imminent catastrophes first.
Also, it's hard to tell with much confidence at longer ranges when you might need a valuable buffer in storage levels in case there is a heavy rain event. Even though rainfall typically decreases in winter, history shows that we've still had occasional heavy rain events during that season in our region. So it'd be a dangerous gamble banking on a lack of any big rain events in winter and leaving dams nearly full without any safety buffer for potential floods in case a big rain event happened. The results could be absolutely disastrous if it was an exceptionally big rain event.
Your rates are also paying for safe dam management that avoids catastrophes, not just having an adequate drinking water supply.
Dams can also be very different in different ways. Some reservoirs are smaller and generally fill up quicker. Some dams were also specifically built with flood mitigation in mind such as Wivenhoe. How a dam is managed when there's flooding rain and levels soar also depends on the type of dam. The rates at which a particular reservoir goes down with water usage also depends on its size vs the population size. That's on top of things like evaporation rates, rainfall, etc.
That’s a good summary. The dams do need a hard target to work to.
Leaving it high after a rain/flood event poses risks for more and higher releases and potential damage if there is another rain/ flood shortly after.
Leaving it low after a rain/flood event poses risks to water security if the future weather is prolonged dry.
A firm line makes it more clear for the decision makers.
That is mainly for dams with gates, and most dams don’t have gates.
On side matter if I recall correctly June 2016 was the last ECL that had big winter rainfalls in SEQ (land rains not ocean) for what I would call a true ECL event. Happy to be corrected if there was one more recent than that. I would not be surprised if we get an ECL this winter as it has been a while and we have an interesting mix of climate drivers and phasing. Ten years ago I never thought about IOD for QLD impacts. My views on that are changing. Below the 10 May update on IOD.
Well if you want entertainment, 00z GFS has it all. Troughing with heavy showers over south-eastern Qld, then a 980 hpa hybrid cyclone that almost hits SE QLD/NE NSW, then a huge winter blast with big dump of snow all the way up to the SE Qld ranges, then an ECL over the NSW central coast. Most of it is unlikely to happen (or at least as aggressively) but never seen such variety in one ext GFS run.
Would anyone be aware of the approximate percentage where each wivenhoe fuse plug would erode? Tried finding it online, but I can only find the heights of the fuse plugs. Kind of curious to see what would of happened if wivenhoe was a tad fuller before the 2022 event.
I have wondered if GFS has its “clock speed” a little bit wrong after it changed to the FV3 upgrade a few years ago.
It's still also far too aggressive in spinning up circulations as well.
Most of this season it has been pretty poor when compared with EC but it did stubbornly stick to the trough digging in over WBB in the final phase of last week's event when compared to other models which ended up being close to the mark.Similar threads
