Day to Day NE NSW / QLD

Vinny

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Saw this


Australia’s east coast could be hit by a rare “triple La Niña” that brings flooding rains and cooler weather for the third summer in a row, a senior US government scientist says.

Experts say the prospect of a triple La Niña is real, but there is disagreement between different computer models and Australia could yet avoid a return of summer floods.
 
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Ken Kato

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Another icy morning here. Min of 3.2C.
 

Retired Weather Man

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Despite all the expectant media hype about this current cold snap, it is not as cold as previous years as the SW winds overnight have kept temps up. On the Granite Belt the temps have just scrapped below zero and we are yet to see the usual minus 5's and below yet. Should this current anchored high in the Bight finally decide to park itself over us or better still just off the coastline, and produce a light northerly flow to counteract the normal SW landbreeze , them the minimums locally will really plunge. What is different this time however are the persistent max temps below 20 in the Brisbane area with cloudless conditions. The sun certainly appears to have lost a bit of "oomph" this winter so far locally.
 
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Retired Weather Man

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Despite all the expectant media hype about this current cold snap, it is not as cold as previous years as the SW winds overnight have kept temps up. On the Granite Belt the temps have just scrapped below zero and we are yet to see the usual minus 5's and below yet. Should this current anchored high in the Bight finally decide to park itself over us or better still just off the coastline, and produce a light northerly flow to counteract the normal SW landbreeze , them the minimums locally will really plunge. What is different this time however are the persistent max temps below 20 in the Brisbane area with cloudless conditions. The sun certainly appears to have lost a bit of "oomph" this winter so far locally.
As a sign that the high might be starting to move is the winds here have a more southerly and even SSE component so far this morning, currently at 0830 wind is SSE 6Kph.
 

Falling_Droplet

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Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 11 Jun 2022
Time: 9:30 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 6.4 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 18.2 C
Min Ground Temp: 3.5 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

Temperature: 14.6 C
Relative Humidity: 57 %
Dew Point: 6.2 C
MSL Pressure: 1017.7 hPa
Wind Speed: 8 kph - light breeze
Wind Direction: W

Present Weather: No cloud development observed
Visibility: - 40km or more - Excellent Visibility
Cloud Cover: 0/8
Ground State: Ground moist

Notes of yesterday weather - 10/6/22: Sunny. The temperature fell until later in the middle of the early hours, before rising from later in the early hours. Slightly cool in the early hours and cool during the middle of the early hours and from early in the morning. Wind chill observed at times in the first half of the early hours and from the middle of the early hours to early morning. The maximum temperature was reached in the mid afternoon, before falling afterwards, easing to near average during the evening and slightly cool late in the evening. Dew point fell very slowly from early, before rising from early morning, moderately low, became stable in the afternoon before falling very slowly from the late morning. Relative humidity rose from early that was low and became moderately low before falling from later in the early hours, dropping back to low and to moderately low in the morning before easing to slightly below average from the mid morning. Relative humidity rose from the mid morning, dropping to moderately low in the evening. Light W to SW winds with some W to NW, S to SW and calm winds at times, before light WNW to SW winds in the morning and afternoon and then light WNW to WSW winds in the evening.
 

G00n

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IMG_1567.jpg


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Despite all the expectant media hype about this current cold snap, it is not as cold as previous years as the SW winds overnight have kept temps up. On the Granite Belt the temps have just scrapped below zero and we are yet to see the usual minus 5's and below yet. Should this current anchored high in the Bight finally decide to park itself over us or better still just off the coastline, and produce a light northerly flow to counteract the normal SW landbreeze , them the minimums locally will really plunge. What is different this time however are the persistent max temps below 20 in the Brisbane area with cloudless conditions. The sun certainly appears to have lost a bit of "oomph" this winter so far locally.
Agree with this. I've seen much lower winter temps overnight in SEQ but the maximums this week have been surprisingly low with the lack of cloud cover and milder winds (compared to last week at least). Springfield Lakes frost images from this morning.

IMG_1567.jpgIMG_1566.jpg
 

Rays74

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PeteJ

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“but there is disagreement between different computer models and Australia could yet avoid a return of summer floods.”
All these articles are interesting but these sort of statements are useless to say the least and dangerous more like it. Don’t these people remember cyclone Debbie and the monsoon. What if is very active next season, unless we end up in a definite El Niño and drought.
 

Storm1

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“but there is disagreement between different computer models and Australia could yet avoid a return of summer floods.”
All these articles are interesting but these sort of statements are useless to say the least and dangerous more like it. Don’t these people remember cyclone Debbie and the monsoon. What if is very active next season, unless we end up in a definite El Niño and drought.
Anything is possible.
 

Vinny

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Even the grass to walk on outside bare foot is cold lol not icy though

Only going for 18 deg today here in Yeppoon .

Insulation in this house is a low R value ... so yes it is insulated and a modern house but it's for a warm climate .

These cool spells the house really feels it .

Even in summer it isn't hot inside probably only 26-28 inside it's the humidity inside same as outside that makes it feel warmer. You can't really build a brick veneer house to reduce humidity, i guess though that is why there are so many big windows on the breeze side .

But all that glass with just plastic vertical blinds covering them i guess doesn't keep it that "warm"

Then again maybe we get used to it being over 22 deg inside all year so when it drops to 18 deg inside it's freezing ? lol

6.8 deg this morning

Monday looks like the last single digit morning in Yeppoon

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Falling_Droplet

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Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 12 Jun 2022
Time: 11:00 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 9.3 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 19.3 C
Min Ground Temp: 7.4 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

Temperature: 15.2 C
Relative Humidity: 52 %
Dew Point: 5.4 C
MSL Pressure: 1014.7 hPa
Wind Speed: 15 kph - gentle breeze
Wind Direction: SW

Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 5/8
Ground State: Ground dry

Notes of yesterday weather - 11/6/22: Sunny. The temperature initially fell that was slightly cool while becoming cool, generally stabilised during the middle of the early hours before rising from later in the early hours, slightly cool. After the maximum temperature was reached in the mid afternoon the temperature fell, dropping back to near average in the evening. Dew point was moderately low that fell very slowly from early, before rising slowly from early in the morning and fell slowly from the early afternoon. Relative humidity initially rose, slightly below average, generally fell from the middle of the early hours, becoming moderately low from late in the early hours and fell more quickly in morning, easing to slightly below average from the mid morning. In the afternoon the relative humidity fell slowly before rising slowly from the late afternoon that eased to moderately low in the evening. Light W to SW winds from early with periods of calm winds in the first half of the early hours. Light W to SW winds from early in the morning with some W to NW winds early in the morning and followed by a brief period of variable winds. Light WNW to WSW winds from later in the morning with some W to NW winds in the early evening.

Today: Near average temperature from early that stopped falling at the start of the day and rose slowly during the early hours before falling later in the early hours. The temperature rose from early in the morning, slightly cool and became cool in the past hour. Dew point have been moderately low that rose slightly from early, fell from the middle of the early hours before rising during this morning. Relative humidity rose slightly from the start of the day, generally fell slowly from the middle of the early hours before stabilising from mid this morning. Light NW to SW winds with SSW winds.
 

AnnerleyX1

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Temps in Gympie over the last 3 months. See if you can work out when the pattern change hit .

0AA20E3E-E958-438D-86EE-3BACC35B7991.jpeg


I had a look at a few different locations’ graphs to see which one would show the most dramatic dip - Gympie seems to be in the sweet spot for being coastal and north enough to get the full brunt of Mayuary’s unseasonable warmth/mugginess, while also being inland enough to cop some very cold nights once the westerlies hit this month.

The weather over the last few days in Brissy has just been perfect. Would’ve liked to see some easing of those southwesterlies so we could maybe get some <5C nights in the city proper (which are like hens teeth these last few years!) but these days around 15-17C with good sunshine are just heaven. The perfect thing to make up for May’s god awful house-destroying humidity.
 

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Gleno71

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We certainly have had some cold nights on the Southern part of the GC, Coolangatta being 5c or lower for the past 4 or so days. Nothing unusual in my opinion. This time last year Coolangatta had similair minimums over a 5 day period. I Am really not a fan of this "feels like temperature " the media throw around at times. The official temperature is what we should go by unless the BOM are happy to make the "feels like temp" the official temp.
Some pics from this morning .
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Ken Kato

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We certainly have had some cold nights on the Southern part of the GC, Coolangatta being 5c or lower for the past 4 or so days. Nothing unusual in my opinion. This time last year Coolangatta had similair minimums over a 5 day period. I Am really not a fan of this "feels like temperature " the media throw around at times. The official temperature is what we should go by unless the BOM are happy to make the "feels like temp" the official temp.
Some pics from this morning .
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Nice pics.

The feels-like temp isn’t just a media thing though. It’s also displayed on the Bureau’s site and app as the Apparent Temperature.
 

smeagols_ghost

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We certainly have had some cold nights on the Southern part of the GC, Coolangatta being 5c or lower for the past 4 or so days. Nothing unusual in my opinion. This time last year Coolangatta had similair minimums over a 5 day period. I Am really not a fan of this "feels like temperature " the media throw around at times. The official temperature is what we should go by unless the BOM are happy to make the "feels like temp" the official temp.
Some pics from this morning .
_6120004.jpg
Personally I use the feels like/apparent temp as a gauge for what level of wind blocking clothes I’ll need to grab for wherever I’m working that day.

If I’m say going inland from the Goldie, or up to Springbrook and there’s a big gap in the temp and apparent I’ll grab something wind blocking as opposed to a heavier coat.

And in summer, if the apparent is higher I’ll try and do anything particularly strenuous at dawn or not long after.

It’s a shorthand for me not having to dig though the rest of the forcast and think about it.
 

Vinny

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Tiny bit warmer this morning 8.2 deg Biloela on 0.2 deg. Mackay 8.1 . Even Townsville joined in this time with 8.9 deg. Cairns on 19.2 deg .

We've gone from warm humid to damp humid rain to dry cool in such a short time lol.

Looking forward to more "average" temps . 14 deg night with 23 days going to feel quite warm .

I know it got cool this time last year but I'm sure the maximum temps were warmer. Friday it tried to hit 20 but not quite on 19.7 deg, last temp over 20 deg was last Wednesday on 21deg.

Must be a Qld thing finding anything under 20 "cold " lol .
----
Ok done some digging and winter isn't over yet ....

June last year maximums 8th to the 12th yep maximums definitely warmer . In fact winter overall last year only one 19.1 deg maximum in June. There was a couple of days in July around 19.1 then 19.4 and there was a 19.9 deg max .

So we've had 4 maximums under 20deg so the same as all of winter last year and we're only in June .

Looking at winter minimums last year here June to August... trying to find a pattern like this June of 7,6,6,7 then 8 i couldn't find. There was a similar cold spell in June last year but only half the time , 3 mornings here.The longest cold spell was July 6 nights but even with that 4.5 deg it was warmer with 8, 9 and 10.

So it's like we're having a more "mid winter" cool morning burst earlier .

June-August last year minimums in Yeppoon: highlighted below 10 deg.

Second image was the maximums last year same time .

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Ken Kato

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The ‘ash rise’, 45 minutes before sunrise was quite bright and lit up the base of the 19000ft (5.8km) layer if Altocumulus this morning.

Phone wouldn’t focus properly so pic is blurry.

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Funny you mention that @Tweetie , I saw very ashy sunrises and sunsets in TAS during my trips there in recent days too. Sunrise and sunset from yesterday above.

Also got some decent turbulence/wind shear on short finals onto RWY30 on Saturday to the gasps of some onboard not surprisingly. Ended up touching down noticeably left of centreline.
 

Vinny

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Yeah they build the homes to keep cool .

Glad we don't have high ceilings which some places here have to keep cool .I know someone in NZ who has them , in a climate like that it harder to heat.

If we had carpet though all the sand getting into it and then I've heard stories of mushrooms growing in damp carpet in Townsville when it gets really tropical once though i wouldnt want that happening here lol.

Doesn't seem to be any substantial rain for the next 10 days here looking ahead. Be interesting to see if this stays the same in July and August.

Looks like the sun comes out today , was a lot of cloud over the weekend not thick but just enough to cover the sun.
 

Tweetie

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Funny you mention that @Tweetie , I saw very ashy sunrises and sunsets in TAS during my trips there in recent days too. Sunrise and sunset from yesterday above.

Also got some decent turbulence/wind shear on short finals onto RWY30 on Saturday to the gasps of some onboard not surprisingly. Ended up touching down noticeably left of centreline.
This ash is intriguing.

Don't remember this with Pinatubo in 1991, maybe most of the effects were lower and more in the northern hemisphere.

Considering how short lived the Tongan blast was it is amazing how far it has spread. Rather than coming through in waves, as it did in the first 3 or so months it is now more or less constantly there.

The stuff that went the highest in the central plume can still be seen, way before and way after sunrise/sunset.

Re the turbulence, yeah there would have been some serious flapping of arms and legs on the flight deck to dump the thing in the touchdown zone relatively smoothly. I remember a politician who was a passenger on one of my efforts said 'I didn't know a controlled crash was part of the ticket price'. Bloated piece of effluent, can't remember it's (his) name.

Some nice ice Virga again this morning.

C9FC5FC5-21C2-4A31-81B3-7898721DC116.jpeg

This bit had a faint Parhelia suggesting hexagonal prism crystals. Formed colder than -20°C?

A0331DE6-138D-4DB3-992D-DED9A704D7FA.png
 
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Multiversity

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There was a photo of impressive aurora over Tasmania on Twitter over the weekend - did you happen to see it KK?

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Funny you mention that @Tweetie , I saw very ashy sunrises and sunsets in TAS during my trips there in recent days too. Sunrise and sunset from yesterday above.

Also got some decent turbulence/wind shear on short finals onto RWY30 on Saturday to the gasps of some onboard not surprisingly. Ended up touching down noticeably left of centreline.
 

Multiversity

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Nice study Tweetie. I snapped these photos this morning at Rosalie - a complex sky is a description I think you've used before & is how I would describe this. There was the higher stuff and then this lower dark mass with what looked like threads/trails descending from it - ice or snow? even - comments would be appreciated.

The F20 at about 10000' was still visible below the cloud.









This ash is intriguing.

Don't remember this with Pinatubo in 1991, maybe most of the effects were lower and more in the northern hemisphere.

Considering how short lived the Tongan blast was it is amazing how far it has spread. Rather than coming through in waves, as it did in the first 3 or so months it is now more or less constantly there.

The stuff that went the highest in the central plume can still be seen, way before and way after sunrise/sunset.

Re the turbulence, yeah there would have been some serious flapping of arms and legs on the flight deck to dump the thing in the touchdown zone relatively smoothly. I remember a politician who was a passenger on one of my efforts said 'I didn't know a controlled crash was part of the ticket price'. Fat piece of crap, can't remember it's (his) name.

Some nice ice Virga again this morning.

C9FC5FC5-21C2-4A31-81B3-7898721DC116.jpeg

This bit had a Parhelia suggesting hexagonal prism chrystals. Formed colder than -20°C?

A0331DE6-138D-4DB3-992D-DED9A704D7FA.png

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Screenshot_20220613-071454_Flightradar24[1].jpg
 

Falling_Droplet

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fernygroveweather.com
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 13 Jun 2022
Time: 9:30 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 7.4 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 20.2 C
Min Ground Temp: 4.2 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

Temperature: 15.2 C
Relative Humidity: 64 %
Dew Point: 8.3 C
MSL Pressure: 1019.7 hPa
Wind Speed: 3 kph - light air
Wind Direction: S

Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 3/8
Ground State: Ground dry

Notes of yesterday weather - 12/6/22: Partly cloudy with Sc, Ci, Cc and Ac clouds. Near average temperature from early that stopped falling at the start of the day and rose slowly during the early hours before falling later in the early hours. The temperature rose from early in the morning, slightly cool and became cool in the late morning. The temperature eased to near average during the afternoon while rising before falling from the mid afternoon while easing to near average and back to slightly cool later in the afternoon. The temperature briefly stabilised late in the afternoon and fell in the evening that was close to average. Dew point was moderately low that rose slightly from early, fell from the middle of the early hours before rising during the morning and early afternoon. Afterwards the dew point fell before rising very slowly from the late afternoon. Relative humidity was low rose slightly from the start of the day, generally fell slowly from the middle of the early hours, becoming very low briefly in the early morning before easing during the morning to slightly below average in the late morning. In the afternoon the relative humidity fell more quickly, easing to moderately low and to low in the evening, while rising from the mid morning. Light NW to SW winds with SSW winds, light to moderate WNW to WSW winds from the late morning, easing to light in the evening tending to SSW to WSW at the very end of the day.

Today: The temperature fell from early, close to average and more quickly in the middle of in the early hours, slightly cool. During the rest of the early hours the temperature was stable or rose slowly before rising more quickly from early this morning and became cool. Dew point remained moderately low while falling slowly before rising from late in the early hours that eased o slightly below average this morning. Relative humidity rose from early easing from low at the start of the day, to moderately low in the middle of the early hours, while rising more slowly and to slightly below average from late in the early hours falling from early this morning. Light WNW to SSW winds from early, after some variable winds at the very start of the day, before calm winds from the middle of the early hours. Light S to SW winds at times from late in the early hours.
 

Tweetie

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Nice study Tweetie. I snapped these photos this morning at Rosalie - a complex sky is a description I think you've used before & is how I would describe this. There was the higher stuff and then this lower dark mass with what looked like threads/trails descending from it - ice or snow? even - comments would be appreciated.

The F20 at about 10000' was still visible below the cloud.











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Screenshot_20220613-071454_Flightradar24[1].jpg
Hello Multi.

I have only a rough grasp of this so obviously will defer to Ken and RWM, but I believe the Altocumulus layer earlier this morning sat (just) in the -10°C to -20°C (roughly) zone that favours the growth of branched ice crystals that start snow flakes. I believe it is referred to as the dendrite growth zone.

Looking at your first pic it appears to be 'snow' virga, we often go through large flakes around 10 to 12000ft in virga like this. Even though the Altocu bases are much higher than that, your Virga looks to have made it down to maybe 12-13000ft?

It is even 'thick' enough to have Mammatus features.

 
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Vinny

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Yeah i noticed my hands were dry too.

Though in 2017 it must have been dryer I remember lips cracking constantly.

Up here we went Easterly and now ENE but humidity is still lowish 38 percent dp 4.3 deg tomorrow morning should see the humidity up more to a dew point of 10 then around 16 with humidity more in the high 60s.

It' nearly 2 deg warmer in the front vs yesterday only difference no cloud today.
 
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