Day to Day NE NSW / QLD

Multiversity

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Jul 29, 2019
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Brilliant Tweetie. Really appreciate your work.

Hello Multi.

I have only a rough grasp of this so obviously will defer to Ken and RWM, but I believe the Altocumulus layer earlier this morning sat (just) in the -10°C to -20°C (roughly) zone that favours the growth of branched ice crystals that start snow flakes. I believe it is referred to as the dendrite growth zone.

Looking at your first pic it appears to be 'snow' virga, we often go through large flakes around 10 to 12000ft in virga like this. Even though the Altocu bases are much higher than that, your Virga looks to have made it down to maybe 12-13000ft?

It is even 'thick' enough to have Mammatus features.

 

Flowin

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Jul 5, 2019
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Pinjarra Hills, QLD
I am rather bemused by the BoM’s latest seasonal streamflow forecasts (issued 6 June) for the Gregors Creek gauge upstream of Wivenhoe.
Well actually that is a bit of an understatement, I am actually falling off my chair rolling in laughter ROFL and crying in shame:headbang:

So here’s why, and I am referring to the forecast for June to August in the fourth pic below which suggests 50% chance of 600,000 Megalitres of flow. Seriously WTF.

And before I go to the criticism I do fully appreciate that forecasting seasonal timescale weather is hard to do. Forecasting seasonal rainfall is harder again, and forecasting seasonal streamflow is very very hard. So I do give credit to BoM having a go. But in this case it seems to lack human judgement to filter out the way out there forecasts.

The first pic below is how well the monthly streamflow forecasts have performed against obs and historical reference stats, over the past year, including the notable February flood event and May flood event. This just reinforces how hard it is to predict river flows in this catchment.

The second pic below shows the 1980 to 2008 comparison of the prediction algorithms again observations for June to August streamflow volumes. This alone should ring alarm bells for the current forecast 3 month volumes. There hasn’t been observed or forecast 3 month streamflow volumes as high as the current forecast in that 20 year validation period.

The third pic below shows the seasonal variations in skill scores - June to August is typically better skill, but that alone should not lead to belief in trust in the current forecasts.

And fourth pic below is the current forecasts which to me should have been detected as ‘suspect’ and marked as such.

I do appreciate that that BoM run these forecasts automatically and because there are so many flow gauge stations across Australia it would be impossible to humanly check every forecast. I also appreciate that with current climate drivers and albeit with uncertainty we have a chance of wetter periods ahead and fair chance of some decent river flows too. But I don’t have much faith in this one.

The streamflow forecasting involves some complicated statistics in pre-processing forecast rainfall to correct for bias before hydrological simulation, and also post-processing for bias in simulated flows. The statistical methods are very complex and rigorous but they ain’t fool proof. I think it is a big mistake to exclude human checking on anomalous forecasts. I do think a very simple filter of the June to Aug forecast for this gauge could have been detected with a simple anomaly filter that would warrant a human detection, review and over-ride.
Anyways it didn’t happen and this this forecast was published. Rather ordinary I think. End Rant. But at least I did get a laugh from it. o_O

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Ken Kato

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Jul 13, 2019
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Images 1 and 2 - Pics of mine in Hobart yesterday. There's still a good amount of nice autumn colours remaining.

Image 3 - Fern Tree near the outskirts of Hobart yesterday with a nice dusting of snow.

Images 4 and 5 - The autumn colours on my maples approaching their peak.... very much later than normal but very vibrant, helped by the chilly winter temps of late.

The overall pattern over the lower east of Australia's transitioning into one featuring approaching frontal systems starting to slide ESE as they get to Southeast Australia rather than arcing up over a huge part of the region with big cold blasts.
 

Sandbank

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Jul 7, 2019
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Caloundra South and Stanthorpe
Glad to have a small reprieve from this chilly weather. Missing @Sandbank s reports...must be REAL cold out there on the creek this year!
Got to minus 3.1 at my place Thurs morning Nic. Late start for frosts but really pretty nonetheless. Mrs S's pic of one of our blooms got picked up by ABC and various other news outlets. Have a goody.
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Vinny

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Jul 4, 2019
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Yeppoon Queensland
Just noticed here Meteye next weekend the SE winds strengthen a bit , dew point more around 12 deg and relative humidity around 60 percent.

Yet though it says 22 deg the feels like temp with the onshore wind makes it around 17-19 deg a few degrees (feels like ) more than when we had westerly dry winds.

But yeah seems like it will be more mild weather than cool .

Looks similar (feels like temp ) in Brisbane too at most feels like 19 deg.

Just right not cold or hot .haha.
 
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Ken Kato

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Jul 13, 2019
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Just noticed here Meteye next weekend the SE winds strengthen a bit , dew point more around 12 deg and relative humidity around 60 percent.

Yet though it says 22 deg the feels like temp with the onshore wind makes it around 17-19 deg a few degrees (feels like ) more than when we had westerly dry winds.

But yeah seems like it will be more mild weather than cool .

Looks similar (feels like temp ) in Brisbane too at most feels like 19 deg.
 

Vinny

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Yeppoon Queensland

Aside from issues with exports and generators being out of action due to maintenance, flood damage, and repairs, the recent prolonged cold weather's added to this and created a kind of perfect storm for SEQ and NSW.
Winter temperatures have sparked a peak in energy demand

---

On that aspect, I measured the usage of the reverse cycle split 2.5kw inverter unit new we have in the lounge ... it seems to barely used much power at all heating in the morning as our power usage is only 600 watts per day higher than late march to now time period last year. I am still trying to make sense of that because we've been using the oven more and the dryer was used a few times in May as well .

Then again if people are using electric heaters or everyone putting on their heating at the same time i guess that doesn't help .

Also there was a power station explosion in Gladstone from memory that powered all of Qld even SE ? i vaguely remember too .
 

Vinny

One of Us
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Jul 4, 2019
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Yeppoon Queensland
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So if i'm reading that right it looks like max temperatures will be about average the 18-24th. Chance of what we had in early June here with those bursts up to 25 then 27 seem a very low chance.

  • Minimum temperatures for July to September are likely to be warmer than median for almost all of Australia (chances greater than 60%), with the eastern two-thirds of the country very likely to be warmer (chances are greater than 80%).

Hmm ... so perhaps we've seen the coldest minimums earlier and July and August will be warmer.
 

Ken Kato

A Local
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Jul 13, 2019
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Brisbane
Hello Multi.

I have only a rough grasp of this so obviously will defer to Ken and RWM, but I believe the Altocumulus layer earlier this morning sat (just) in the -10°C to -20°C (roughly) zone that favours the growth of branched ice crystals that start snow flakes. I believe it is referred to as the dendrite growth zone.

Looking at your first pic it appears to be 'snow' virga, we often go through large flakes around 10 to 12000ft in virga like this. Even though the Altocu bases are much higher than that, your Virga looks to have made it down to maybe 12-13000ft?

It is even 'thick' enough to have Mammatus features.


Yep it's consistent with what the soundings showed. Those types of temps are the typical ones in the dendritic growth zone.

Speaking of seeing flakes up around those heights, one of my more memorable experiences from some years ago was seeing thousands of snowflakes continually streak past while flying at 18,000ft in a Dash-8 through a thick layer of altostratus along a cold front that was moving across NSW and Southern QLD.
I also love seeing all those snowflakes as bright white thick "streaks" at night-time illuminated by the wingtip strobe lights while descending through thick altostratus or cumulus congestus.

Their visual appearance is quite unique and very distinctive from raindrops.
 

Ken Kato

A Local
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Jul 13, 2019
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Brisbane
I find the power outages hard to believe, and i dont think it even occured as the media predicted.

Surely we use more power in the summer months ?

Always a dangerous assumption to think that it's always just the media saying a certain thing @Gleno71

In this particular case, multiple providers as well as The Australian Energy Market Operator have already said what the most significant contributing factors are.

The prolonged nature of the colder than average conditions put more demand on the system than would otherwise normally be the case at this time of year. Combine that with the other big factors all happening at the wrong time and it exacerbates the situation even more.

Whether or not there'll be any actual power outages and if so, how widespread or localised they'll be, is really anyone's guess though.
 

Nature's Fury II

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Dec 25, 2021
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West Brisbane
Came across an old but very interesting paper with findings that are still relevant:


Based on a study of a 10 year database of storms (1978-1987), Callaghan categorised 4 classes of severe t'storms in SEQ based on broad synoptic pre-cursor types:

SE Change23%A
Strong NW Flow17%B
Weak NW Flow43%C
Other17%D

I've posted the above before, but this image was a great visual:

1.png


I found this transect really interesting. While SE'ly change (Type A) are the most dangerous severe t'storms for SEQ, they tend to pulse (largest when entering coastal plains, then dying a bit as they lose buoyancy off the ranges, then pulsing again over Brisbane Metro as they tap into the seabreeze). On the other hand, the weak NW'ly storms maintain or even increase intensity as they slowly travel over the coastal plain, often from the NW toward Brisbane. I've always had a healthy respect for those particular storms, but eye-opening to see just how strong they can be immediately off and after the ranges. For example, the Bris Airport storm with the 150+ kph gusts in 2017? were an example and of course the infamous '73 Brisbane tornado.

2.png


And finally some interesting data on severe t'storms from the 70s to 90s.

3.png


Also have to say reading the paper it's pretty impressive what Callaghan achieved in the mid-90s with computer modelling of severe t'storms in SEQ.
 
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Vinny

One of Us
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Jul 4, 2019
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Yeppoon Queensland
8.4 yeppoon forecast was 11.

12.9 at the marina...didn't feel cold at all

Car was reading about 12 to 13 driving around my street and just outside my suburb so wasn't as cold as in town.

Bits of cloud about this morning.

And now to return to something more average again with a little bit more humidity in the air.

Edited to add...forgot about the thermometer on the patio facing south....it has 11 deg here . Going by that the car reading sounds about right given lack of sun.
 

Retired Weather Man

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Wynnum North - Brisbane - Queensland

Falling_Droplet

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Jul 7, 2019
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Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 14 Jun 2022
Time: 8:00 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 10.7 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 21.3 C
Min Ground Temp: 8.3 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

Temperature: 12.7 C
Relative Humidity: 97 %
Dew Point: 12.2 C
MSL Pressure: 1022.6 hPa
Wind Speed: light air
Wind Direction: SW

Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 2/8
Ground State: Ground moist

Notes of yesterday weather - 13/6/22: Partly cloudy with Sc, Ci and Ac clouds. The temperature fell from early, close to average and more quickly in the middle of the early hours, slightly cool. During the rest of the early hours the temperature was stable or rose slowly before rising more quickly from early morning and became cool. During the morning the temperature eased and dropped back to near average while the temperature rose to the maximum temperature in the early afternoon. The temperature was generally stable before falling from later in the afternoon, close to average. Dew point was moderately low while falling slowly before rising from late in the early hours that eased to slightly below average in the morning. From the middle of the day the relative humidity became slightly below average and near average in the afternoon. From the late afternoon the dew point fell before stabilising later in the evening. Relative humidity rose from early easing from low at the start of the day, to moderately low in the middle of the early hours, while rising more slowly and to slightly below average from late in the early hours falling from early in the morning. Late in the morning the relative humidity stabilised, then rose slowly in the afternoon, close to average and more quickly from the mid afternoon to the early evening, while becoming slightly above average. Relative humidity rose slowly in the evening, close to average. Light WNW to SSW winds from early, after some variable winds at the very start of the day, before calm winds from the middle of the early hours. Light S to SW winds at times from late in the early hours, light SSW to SSE winds from the mid morning and SSSW to ESE from the early afternoon. Light and variable winds followed during the afternoon, easing to light from late in the afternoon.

Today: Near average temperature from early that was nearly stable, briefly became slightly warm late in the early hours before rising this morning. Dew point have been near average that rose slowly, then fell slowly from late in the early hours before starting to rise this morning. Relative humidity have been nearly stable and close to average. Mostly calm winds with some W to SW winds from late in the early hours.
 

Ken Kato

A Local
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Jul 13, 2019
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Purely political.

Nope @Retired Weather Man . Refer to my comments in my subsequent post about why it's not, including information from The Australian Energy Market Operator, economists, and many others.

People always like to blame everything on politics and think that there must only be one single cause behind everything. But the real world is often a lot more complicated than we'd like it to be, and there's often multiple factors coming together to cause something i.e. the holes in the swiss cheese all lining up.

Increased power demand due to weather is nothing new. It happens every time when it's hot or cold, whether it be heatwaves or cold snaps. That's why many organisations in the energy sector rely so much on forecasts to anticipate demand.

In the current case, it's not so much about whether the temps themselves have been extreme or not, but more about the longer than usual duration and geographical extent of the cold weather. Lower than usual feels-like temps also encourage more people to turn on heaters, etc even if the actual temps aren't too extreme.
The AEMO even stated that it's also likely the extra demand's been made worse by the fact that we suddenly get this cold start to winter after a string of milder winters in recent years.

If that comes on top of a number of pre-existing problems like generators being out of action, power costs being extremely high due to economy and geopolitical issues such as the war in Ukraine, not enough forward planning on building more resilience into the domestic energy supply, then it should come as no surprise that it becomes a lot harder to keep up with energy demand when weather suddenly exacerbates the effects from those other factors.

I wouldn't have mentioned it in this thread if the weather didn't have a part to play at all.
 
Last edited:

Multiversity

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 29, 2019
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would be interesting to see if this has been built upon - UQ was doing research into this as well I think.

Came across an old but very interesting paper with findings that are still relevant:


Based on a study of a 10 year database of storms (1978-1987), Callaghan categorised 4 classes of severe t'storms in SEQ based on broad synoptic pre-cursor types:

SE Change23%A
Strong NW Flow17%B
Weak NW Flow43%C
Other17%D

I've posted the above before, but this image was a great visual:

1.png


I found this transect really interesting. While SE'ly change (Type A) are the most dangerous severe t'storms for SEQ, they tend to pulse (largest when entering coastal plains, then dying a bit as they lose buoyancy off the ranges, then pulsing again over Brisbane Metro as they tap into the seabreeze). On the other hand, the weak NW'ly storms maintain or even increase intensity as they slowly travel over the coastal plain, often from the NW toward Brisbane. I've always had a healthy respect for those particular storms, but eye-opening to see just how strong they can be immediately off and after the ranges. For example, the Bris Airport storm with the 150+ kph gusts in 2017? were an example and of course the infamous '73 Brisbane tornado.

2.png


And finally some interesting data on severe t'storms from the 70s to 90s.

3.png


Also have to say reading the paper it's pretty impressive what Callaghan achieved in the mid-90s with computer modelling of severe t'storms in SEQ.
 

Flowin

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 5, 2019
2,904
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Pinjarra Hills, QLD
Nope @Retired Weather Man . Refer to my comments in my subsequent post about why it's not, including information from The Australian Energy Market Operator, economists, and many others. I'm not a fan of always blaming everything on politics just by default. People always like to blame everything on politics and think that there must only be one single cause behind everything. But the real world is often a lot more complicated than we'd like it to be, and there's often multiple factors coming together to cause something i.e. the holes in the swiss cheese all lining up.

Increased power demand due to weather is nothing new. It happens every time when it's hot or cold, whether it be heatwaves or cold snaps. That's why many organisations in the energy sector rely so much on forecasts to anticipate demand.

In the current case, it's not so much about whether the temps themselves have been extreme or not, but more about the longer than usual duration and geographical extent of the cold weather. Lower than usual feels-like temps also encourage more people to turn on heaters, etc even if the actual temps aren't too extreme.

If that comes on top of a number of pre-existing problems like generators being out of action, power costs being extremely high due to economy and geopolitical issues such as the war in Ukraine, not enough forward planning on building more resilience into the domestic energy supply, then it should come as no surprise that it becomes a lot harder to keep up with energy demand when weather suddenly exacerbates the effects from those other factors.

I wouldn't have mentioned it in this thread if the weather didn't have a part to play at all.
Daily fluctuations as well would play a big part. The two plots below from OpenNEM on NEM watch.
Solar in middle of day bringing substantial support and contribution to generation - but not many needing heating at that time. And then late evening or early morning when temps drop and people want heating but the solar ain't doing anything.

1pm yesterday
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7am this morning
1655173346177.png
 

Vinny

One of Us
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Jul 4, 2019
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Yeppoon Queensland
I've still got a full 5000gallon tank to use on a sprinkler in the garden....

Haven't mowed nearly a month.

We have town water just the tank was put in apparently in 07 there was some rule about new homes having compulsory rainwater tanks.

Amazes me how up here went from an average minimum of 19deg in May to 12 this month so far....it's like we skipped a month in between.
 

Ken Kato

A Local
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
5,353
50,227
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Brisbane
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Some areas still on track to get a decent dose of fog during the next couple of mornings. There's already some shallow fog forming here.

One thing I forgot to mention was that Brisbane's 7-day rolling average of max temps up to the other day was the lowest for June since 2012.

That's also contributed a lot to the vibrancy of the very delayed autumn colours on my trees - some pics from today above.
 

Seabreezes

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Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
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South West Rocks, NSW
2.4mm in the 24hrs to 9am from some light rain.

There will be no rain here for at least the next 7 days, if not longer.
The longest dry spell so far this year has been just 4 days (Jan 9 to Jan 12).
The longest dry spell during 2021 was 9 days (May 25 to June 2).
The dry spell here has now lasted for 10 days, which makes it the longest dry spell since the 16-day dry spell from Oct 2nd to 17th 2020.

The next chance of rain looks to be from around Saturday evening. It currently looks like the bulk of the showers will remain off the coast though, with much less falling over land.

Just 2.4mm has fallen so far this month. At the moment, it's currently the driest month here since August 2017 (2.2mm).
Similar story for other places on the northern MNC so far this month: Coffs Harbour 0.4mm, Dorrigo 1.6mm, and Kempsey 1.0mm.
 

Vinny

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
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Yeppoon Queensland
No fog here . It was 16.1 deg minimum, 2.5 deg above average.

You'd think with i think warmer than normal sea temps up here and higher humidity we would be seeing more rain...but no systems coming through...0.6mm this month...might be the driest on record (records go back to 1994) if we don't get at least another I think 5.2mm before the month is up.

Been a year of long dry spells broken up by some rain followed by dry . Be interesting to see what the next 6 months does up here. If it follows the usual pattern then it won't usually be until November or December we see some heavier falls....even then we are going to have to have some above average months to make the high 900smm average.

If that Indian Ocean dipole pattern forms maybe I'm guessing late July or from August we might see some rain
 

Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
2,435
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Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 15 Jun 2022
Time: 9:30 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 10 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 22.2 C
Min Ground Temp: 8 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

Temperature: 18.3 C
Relative Humidity: 85 %
Dew Point: 15.8 C
MSL Pressure: 1023.4 hPa
Wind Speed: 2 kph - light air
Wind Direction: S

Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 1/8
Ground State: Ground moist

Notes of yesterday weather - 14/6/22: Partly cloudy with Cu and Sc clouds. Near average temperature from early that was nearly stable, briefly became slightly warm late in the early hours before rising in the morning. The temperature was a little variable from the mid morning to the mid afternoon with the maximum temperature reached in the early afternoon and the temperature fell afterwards. Late in the evening the temperature rose slightly. Dew point was near average that rose slowly, then fell slowly from late in the early hours before starting to rise in the morning and afternoon becoming slightly above average in the middle of the day. From the mid afternoon the dew point fell that eased to near average from the early evening and rose a little late in the evening. Relative humidity was nearly stable and close to average from early, fell sharply for a brief period in the mid morning before falling slowly afterwards, becoming slightly above average from the late morning. From the early afternoon the relative humidity rose, was briefly moderately high in the mid afternoon remained near average for the rest of the day. Mostly calm winds with some W to SW winds from late in the early hours. Light S to SW winds during the morning and SSE to SW later in the morning with some SSE to ESE winds. During the afternoon the wind shifted to E to SE, with a period of of winds shifting to N to NE in the mid afternoon and to E to NE late in the afternoon. Calm winds from the late afternoon.

Today: Early morning mist. The temperature have been near average that rose slightly at the start of the day, then fell afterwards before rising from early this morning. Dew point have been close to average that rose slightly at the start of the day, then fell before rising from early this morning and became slightly above average. Relative humidity was near average that was stable from early, rose slightly early this morning that was close to saturation, before falling this morning, slightly above average. Periods of calm winds with some W winds from early before light S to SW winds during this morning.
 

Vinny

One of Us
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Jul 4, 2019
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Yeppoon Queensland
Doesn't feel muggy but it's quite high humidity and dew point for June at the moment here 18 deg and humidity hasn't dropped below 75 percent

1655267096396.png



The dew point mean is 12.8deg at 9am and 13.6deg at 3pm according to the BOM

Mean humidity is usually 65percent in June at 3pm and 74 in the morning.

But high humidity in itself doesn't equal rain as summer here shows ... not yet anyway...
 

Ken Kato

A Local
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
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Brisbane
Brisbane River hit minor last night for a bit due to the high tides. Does the BOM tend to issue flood warnings for these tidal events? I can't find anything on their website. Or is it just that common on the spring tide to be not that big of a deal?
1655277393492.png

Warnings are only issued for abnormally high tides due to things like storm surge effect and significant sea level anomalies along the coast at the time @Proudyno1 .
 
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