Day to Day NE NSW / QLD

Ken Kato

A Local
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
5,087
47,405
563
Brisbane
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Today's sunny weather made for great lighting to really bring out the belated but brilliant autumn glory of my maple trees. The colours are a sight to see at the moment.

Some signs of the possibility of another bout of colder SW flow towards the end of this month in ensembles but the uncertainty about whether it'll be a big or small drop in temps is pretty damn high east of the ranges.
 

Greg58

One of Us
Jul 15, 2019
117
1,111
263
Bardon 5 km W of Brisbane CBD
Brisbane River hit minor last night for a bit due to the high tides. Does the BOM tend to issue flood warnings for these tidal events? I can't find anything on their website. Or is it just that common on the spring tide to be not that big of a deal?
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I notice the BOM mentioned the high tides on Twitter





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Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland

@BOM_Qld

Evening tide just near or just above HAT (Highest Astronomical Tide) along #SEQ coast this week. May lead to some localised flooding of low-lying areas near to the coast and bayside, and around tidal creeks, streams and rivers. Qld Gov tide data http://ow.ly/mprS50JvAkK


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Vinny

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
2,206
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Yeppoon Queensland
It's quite a drop to go from averaging 19deg mins to 12deg the next month here

Interesting Brisbane went from averaging 17 deg minimums now around 10.6 so far.

Sort of didn't have much of the inbetween night weather here before June but after the humidity .Autumn i guess though we don't really have autumn but May and September are similar hereabout 24 deg days and 15/16 deg nights before it transitions up or down.

It was like sleeping ontop of a sheet to sleeping under a blanket in a short period of time.

It wasrain warm humidity May , then 12 nights sort of like May here, though some warmer then winter minimums lol.
 
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Vinny

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
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Yeppoon Queensland
A not too hot not too cold 17.5 deg here this morning and 15.8 deg in Rockhampton.

Realised I need to when I'm at home during the day sometimes, don't open too many windows at this time of year .. don't need to expel any heat .. Habit from so many months of it. It's a pleasant 22/23 deg inside.

Apparently they only put the minimum R2.5 insulation here .. guess we don't need anything higher here because by September or late August it is warmer.

These homes here have a lot of windows for air flow . Lots on 2 sides i guess to get cross ventilation with a long open shape house.

I'm glad we don't have a high ceiling though.
 

Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
2,385
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363
Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 16 Jun 2022
Time: 7:25 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 9.5 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 23.9 C
Min Ground Temp: 7.6 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0.1 mm (Dew)

Temperature: 10.2 C
Relative Humidity: 97 %
Dew Point: 9.8 C
MSL Pressure: 1019.7 hPa
Wind Speed: Calm
Wind Direction: Calm

Present Weather: Fog has begun or is getting thicker during the past hour; sky or clouds visible
Visibility: 10km to 19km - Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 1/8
Ground State: Ground moist

Notes of yesterday weather - 15/6/22: Early morning mist. Most sunny in morning and partly cloudy in afternoon. The temperature was near average that rose slightly at the start of the day, then fell afterwards before rising from early morning, becoming slightly warm from the late morning. After the maximum temperature was reached in the middle of the day the temperature fell, easing to near average. Dew point was close to average that rose slightly at the start of the day, then fell before rising from early morning and became slightly above average. From the mid morning the dew point became moderately high while rising less quickly, fell a little in the early afternoon, slightly above average before rising afterwards for a brief period, moderately high. After this the dew point fell easing to slightly above average late in the afternoon and to near average during the evening. Relative humidity was near average that was stable from early, rose slightly early in the morning that was close to saturation, before falling in the morning, becoming moderately high and eased later in the morning to near average in the middle of the day. The relative humidity rose in the afternoon and evening that became slightly above average and moderately high for a period in the mid to late afternoon. Periods of calm winds with some W winds from early before light S to SW winds during the morning, shifted to between W and NW late in the morning and in the middle of the day. Light SW to E winds in the afternoon, light NNE to E later in the afternoon, before mostly calm winds in the evening.

Today: Fog patches this morning. Near average temperature from early that fell before starting to rise slightly presently. Dew point have been close to average that fell from early. Relative humidity was stable from early that have been close to average. Calm winds from early.
 

Ken Kato

A Local
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
5,087
47,405
563
Brisbane
Has anyone actually lost power over the past few days? My niece up the Sunny Coast said she lost power last night....for 1 minute. XD

Not me, but I did see the other night that Energex had published a long list of areas which were earmarked for potential outages if worst came to worst.

There were also some areas in the northern suburbs of Sydney which ended up losing power as a result of the current situation.
 

Vinny

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
2,206
9,739
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Yeppoon Queensland
A negative SAM ...does that have much impact in Central and North Queensland at this time of year?

No power loss up here.....we lost it back in march from 6.30 pmto about 9 and rarely get cuts in my area. No fans back when we had that brutal Singapore like humidity and dew point and no breeze outside...luckily we had dinner early that night. Also that was when our ducted air con decided to Rip after 15 years. Must have been lot of pressure in the network back when there was that heatwave affecting my area north to Cairns.
 

Naturestorms91

One of Us
Oct 22, 2021
212
1,735
213
Bayside Brisbane - Wakerley
I thought negative SAM during winter means less cold fronts reaching mid latitudes? I am reading BoM's data and information about differences in seasonal influences from SAM.

We have upcoming negative IOD will enhance rains across central areas as well, into spring. US climate data centre confirmed a triple dip La Nina for next wet season as well.
 

Ken Kato

A Local
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
5,087
47,405
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Brisbane
I thought negative SAM during winter means less cold fronts reaching mid latitudes? I am reading BoM's data and information about differences in seasonal influences from SAM.

Nah where did you read that @Naturestorms91 ?

Negative SAM phases are typically associated with the midlatitude westerly flow and associated cold fronts reaching further north than usual. Positive SAM is the opposite.
 

CCSC

Addicted
Oct 1, 2019
43
263
133
I don't think it can be locked in just yet, even NOAA only calling a 50-60% chance of La Nina forming.
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It's worth keeping in mind the relatively low model skill at this time of year, although it does rapidly improve from now onwards.

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Given it's likely to be a marginal La Nina if it was to occur I wouldn't be surprised if US ends up calling it and BOM doesn't. Either way odds are leaning towards wetter than average spring/summer, although there remains considerable uncertainty whether La Nina thresholds are reached as the plot below shows.
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Multiversity

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 29, 2019
850
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Vinny

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
2,206
9,739
363
Yeppoon Queensland
I really hope for some good rain this spring and upcoming summer.

I was thinking the summer just gone here how humid it was more than usual then looked at the average max temps Jan - March . Well above normal I remember once it just stayed at 80 -90 percent humidity and sunny all day in spring and early summer . Few Days of 37 wth 27 at night with dps in the high 20's !

Lots of clear sunny days, not much cloud, not much wind and being near the ocean really didn't make it much cooler in summer when usually it does. Only place you could get cool was walking right when the water from the sea laps the sand . Sand dunes walk there and heat .

Guess having isolated storms as our main rain source didn't help.

Very weird year as February turned out cooler than March for maximums.

Then again November prior to that felt more like February. May was also odd being a dry month that was wetter.

Couldn't even take my dog or a walk , dog gave up after 15mins the dew point was 26 deg in November instead of the usual 19/20 deg . Had a couple of times over spring into summer had to forgo the afternoon walk with the dog for a whole week the humidity was that intense ... with not much rain .

The local air con tech who replaced our ducted unit with splits said he had been flat out that summer more than ever. Lots of break downs in systems .

As I read on a social media post from a local group a few weeks back that is not how a typical Capricorn Coast summer is , relentless heat and humidity . Sure it's humid and warm but not supposed to be unbearable to the point you have to sit inside air conditioning waiting for the sun to go down .

It was like Cairns/ Townsvilles summer weather had moved south and our rainfall had moved south to SE Qld.

And now the taps are off and it's quiet .
 

Nic Bri

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 5, 2019
640
4,936
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Mount Gravatt East
Not me, but I did see the other night that Energex had published a long list of areas which were earmarked for potential outages if worst came to worst.

It just cracked me up the idea that 1 min was a blackout. I was like you should have been alive in the 80s when SEQEB forced everyone into protest blackouts...core childhood memory there! Hehe
 
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Storm1

Hard Yards
Feb 6, 2022
56
248
33
I don't think it can be locked in just yet, even NOAA only calling a 50-60% chance of La Nina forming.
1655334387001.png

It's worth keeping in mind the relatively low model skill at this time of year, although it does rapidly improve from now onwards.

1655334255254.png

Given it's likely to be a marginal La Nina if it was to occur I wouldn't be surprised if US ends up calling it and BOM doesn't. Either way odds are leaning towards wetter than average spring/summer, although there remains considerable uncertainty whether La Nina thresholds are reached as the plot below shows.
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At least it's staying on the La Nina side of neutral for now because if it went the other way, it could generate an extremely volatile bushfire situation.
 

Retired Weather Man

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
1,587
11,515
363
Wynnum North - Brisbane - Queensland
It just cracked me up the idea that 1 min was a blackout. I was like you should have been alive in the 80s when SEQEB forced everyone into protest blackouts...core childhood memory there! Hehe
1978 t0 1980. In Townsville during these blackouts when I came off night shifts I
threw a mattress on the concrete floor of the downstairs laundry to get a breeze coming in through the doorway.
 

Nature's Fury II

One of Us
Dec 25, 2021
431
3,181
213
West Brisbane
Can't say I'm surprised by the forecasts. After a month break, we have another easterly trade surge in the final week of June and potentially again into July. That will feed moist air nicely into any system that forms, possibly even an atmospheric river.

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And CFS has really started to go all-in on a decent La Nina again this spring. Need to see if it holds though.

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Ken Kato

A Local
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
5,087
47,405
563
Brisbane
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Can't say I'm surprised by the forecasts. After a month break, we have another easterly trade surge in the final week of June and potentially again into July. That will feed moist air nicely into any system that forms, possibly even an atmospheric river.

And CFS has really started to go all-in on a decent La Nina again this spring. Need to see if it holds though.

That reminds me @Nature's Fury II ... above is something you might be interested in.
 

smeagols_ghost

One of Us
Jan 4, 2020
222
1,666
263
Can't say I'm surprised by the forecasts. After a month break, we have another easterly trade surge in the final week of June and potentially again into July. That will feed moist air nicely into any system that forms, possibly even an atmospheric rive
I was hoping for a little longer to get some more drains in, guess i'm playing in the dirt this weekend.
 

Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
2,385
13,643
363
Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 17 Jun 2022
Time: 9:20 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 6.4 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 24.4 C
Min Ground Temp: 4 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: Trace

Temperature: 18.9 C
Relative Humidity: 54 %
Dew Point: 9.4 C
MSL Pressure: 1019.1 hPa
Wind Speed: 2 kph - light air
Wind Direction: SSW

Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
Visibility: 20km
Cloud Cover: 1/8
Ground State: Ground moist

Notes of yesterday weather - 16/6/22: Fog patches in early morning. Sunny with some Cu clouds. Near average temperature from early that fell before rising from early in the morning. From the late morning the temperature rose very slowly to the maximum temperature in the early afternoon that became warm from the late morning. The temperature fell slowly in the afternoon, easing to near average from the late afternoon before falling from the mid afternoon. Dew point was close to average that fell from early, and then rose from early in the morning becoming slightly above average in the mid to late morning that was briefly moderately high. Late in the morning the dew point briefly fell sharply while returning to near average, before generally falling afterwards that was stable in the middle of the day, and rose a little late in the afternoon. Relative humidity was stable from early that was close to average before falling from the mid morning after becoming moderately high in the mid morning and rapidly for a brief period late in the morning, dropping back to slightly below average. In the afternoon the relative humidity fell slowly before rising rom the late afternoon, close to average. Calm winds from early, light NE to ESE winds with some variable winds later in the morning and a W to SSW wind change from the late morning. Mostly calm winds from the late afternoon with some WNW to SW winds at times during the evening.

Today: The temperature fell from early, slightly cool, before rising from early this morning, after becoming cool early this morning and easing during this morning to near average presently. Dew point fell from early, slightly below average before rising from early this morning, while easing to near average. Relative humidity was near or slightly below average from early that rose slowly from early before falling during this morning. Mostly calm winds from early with some WNW to WSW winds at times and SSW presently.
 

Ken Kato

A Local
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
5,087
47,405
563
Brisbane
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The first 3 pics of mine above (taken during my recent trips to TAS) are of the heritage listed bridge in Richmond.... the oldest stone-span bridge in the nation.
It was actually quite remarkable just how much autumn foliage was still hanging onto the trees in the broader region. It was almost like it was only just past its peak there. Those bare ones in those pics were the few exceptions.

Speaking of autumn colours, the last 3 pics are of some of my maple and birch trees in the last few days. The autumn colours may have been extremely late this year but boy oh boy, they sure have made up for it! The chilly sunny weather to start off this winter has really brought out the best in them. If those relentless cloudy rainy conditions with warm nights in May had continued til now, those colours would be nowhere near as vibrant as they are now (a big bulk of the leaves were still green by the end of last month which is highly unusual for here).
 

Ken Kato

A Local
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
5,087
47,405
563
Brisbane
Off topic , but speaking of Tasmania
Pics from earlier this week...
Apparently the road to Cradle mountain.

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Nah that's Pinnacle Road @Rays74 (the one that leads up to the top of Mt Wellington near the back of Hobart and from where I took my pics from as well). That's also why it's been taking so long to re-open this time.

Cradle Mountain is in central TAS.

Speaking of weather outside our area, toasty heatwave spreading across parts of Europe atm. Max temps forecast to push past the 40C mark in some parts of France. Even London's going for a max of 32C today. That falls well short of their record of 38C but still very much hotter than average for them and still decent for 51N latitude, courtesy of a SW flow, a high sitting over mainland Europe, and their ever-present warm Gulf Stream. That's after a min of 20C which isn't too far off Brisbane's average midsummer min temp.

A couple more cool nights coming up for here locally with some additional marginal frost potential.
 

Rays74

One of Us
Ski Pass
Feb 8, 2020
630
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Nah that's Pinnacle Road @Rays74 (the one that leads up to the top of Mt Wellington near the back of Hobart and from where I took my pics from as well). That's also why it's been taking so long to re-open this time.

Cradle Mountain is in central TAS.

Thanks for the correction.
I was going off 2nd hand information.
Impressive deep powder snow though.
 

Vinny

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
2,206
9,739
363
Yeppoon Queensland
Yeah hopefully not dry again in cq and nq. Neg iod is apparently a strong chance now.


Had our lilly pilies cut back this afternoon they were about 6 to 7m high now down to 2 ..apparently there were 10 people and 3 trucks but they had it done in an hour.

I think lilly pillies respond well to a hard prune..could have had it done in summer but I think it was too dry until may rain.

A couple of houses back they had them pruned in October last year and they've come back bushy and healthy seems they're a tough native.

Had some tuckeroos trimmed too though not as hard.Also a tough plant.

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Vinny

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
2,206
9,739
363
Yeppoon Queensland
Just saw on the jwc page odds are high now for a negative Indian Ocean dipole.

2019 I think we had that sudden stratospheric warming.?..I remember in late November we had westerly winds and 42 deg .Not very common up here you usually get one day over 32 deg in summer . Only temp in the 40s I've experienced here in 10 years...humidity was in the 20 percent range. We had a bushfire in Yeppoon. but it was deliberately lit .
 
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