Day to Day NE NSW / QLD

Ken Kato

A Local
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
5,087
47,405
563
Brisbane
The Access on Windy says a different amount has next 10 days accumulation 1.2mm must not be ACCESS - G. like on Meteologix which has 0.3mm?

I think that'd just be due to the interpolation of point location totals being slightly coarser in one compared to the other @Vinny

They both use ACCESS-G3.

The difference between 1.2mm vs 0.3mm is insignificant, especially compared to the vast differences between the models for the forecast rainfall amounts for Yeppoon at the moment.
 

Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
2,385
13,643
363
Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 21 Jun 2022
Time: 7:45 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 7.9 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 22.7 C
Min Ground Temp: 5.4 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

Temperature: 9.4 C
Relative Humidity: 97 %
Dew Point: 9.1 C
MSL Pressure: 1022.2 hPa
Wind Speed: Calm
Wind Direction: Calm

Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
Visibility: 20km
Cloud Cover: 1/8
Ground State: Ground moist

Notes of yesterday weather - 20/6/22: Partly cloudy with Cu and Sc clouds. The temperature generally fell very slowly that was rather variable from early that was slightly warm becoming warm later in the early hours. From early morning the temperature rose, easing to near average through to the maximum temperature in the early afternoon, As the maximum temperature was reached the temperature was a little variable before falling during the afternoon and evening, close to average but was briefly slightly warm early in the evening. Dew point was close to average that was generally stable, fell a little later in the early hours before rising from early morning. From the middle of the day the dew point fell a little, rose a little from the mid afternoon before falling more quickly in the evening. Relative humidity was slightly below average from early that rose slowly from early before falling from the morning while easing to near average. From the mid afternoon the relative humidity rose. Mostly calm winds from early before some S to SW or W to SW winds at times in the morning before shifting to S to SSW from the mid morning. In the early afternoon were S to ESE winds, shifted to S to WSW before mostly calm winds in the evening with some variable winds.

Tody: The temperature fell from early that was near average becoming slightly cool this morning while starting to rise. Dew point have been close to average that fell from early before rising this morning. Relative humidity have been close to average that rose slowly from early. Mostly calm winds from early.
 

Sandbank

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
756
6,784
263
Caloundra South and Stanthorpe
Average Min (1.8 deg) and Max (14.9 deg) just slightly below long term June averges for Stanthorpe. A 1.4 deg start, still and gorgeous clear skies for the shortest day of the year. Absolutely perfect.
20220621_073235.jpg
20220621_072953.jpg
20220621_072900.jpg
 
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Proudyno1

Hard Yards
Dec 29, 2021
41
400
83
Parkinson, QLD
1655768854799.png

Will be very interesting to see if this plays out. IIRC GFS predicted the last rain event in May early as well (albeit with exaggerated totals), before ACCESS-G and EC jumped on board a bit later. There are a couple of EC ensembles forecasting 25-75mm but the majority are forecasting just some coastal showers over the next 10 days.

Not sure how other soils in SEQLD are faring, but the soils at my place are still surprisingly muddy, even after the last 2-3 weeks of sunshine. I'd say anything over 25mm will easily get the ground saturated again and anything over 50, will get the creeks going again. Definitely something to keep an eye on over the next few model runs.
 

Vinny

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
2,207
9,739
363
Yeppoon Queensland
1655768854799.png

Will be very interesting to see if this plays out. IIRC GFS predicted the last rain event in May early as well (albeit with exaggerated totals), before ACCESS-G and EC jumped on board a bit later. There are a couple of EC ensembles forecasting 25-75mm but the majority are forecasting just some coastal showers over the next 10 days.

Not sure how other soils in SEQLD are faring, but the soils at my place are still surprisingly muddy, even after the last 2-3 weeks of sunshine. I'd say anything over 25mm will easily get the ground saturated again and anything over 50, will get the creeks going again. Definitely something to keep an eye on over the next few model runs.
I'd love another 50-100mm. Yeppoon just sucked that rain last month up like a giant sponge .

Sandy soil in my area is a bit dry though not dusty type sandy yet. Luckily the sun isn't strong yet.

I'm hoping it falls in areas that didn't get much rain this season eg
Mackay and my area if you take the airport for example at Mackay
average rainfall to Jun
1189.2mm
87.9 day(s)

total for 2022
727.6mm
92 day(s)


461.6mm short of year to date rainfall.
------
Yeppoon :

average rainfall to Jun
656.9mm
75.2 day(s)

total for 2022
423.4mm
69 day(s)

So 233.5mm short year to date
------
Rockhampton only need 71.1 mm to get year to date rainfall (Must be because it has a lower annual rainfall )


If you go to Emerald out west they are already ahead this year if nothing fell this month...

average rainfall to Jun
305.6mm
34.3 day(s)

total for 2022
316.2mm
28 day(s)


Going south on the coast, Bundaberg is about 200mm ahead year to date and even Gladstone is above average 611mm vs 545mm.


So I guess if it was from about Gladstone to Mackay the rainfall event (if it eventuated ) that would be ideal .

I don't think you need anymore rain in SE Qld until 2023 ? Not meaning that as a smartarse comment , seriously saying you don't right? No deficits anywhere in rainfall .
 

Ken Kato

A Local
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
5,087
47,405
563
Brisbane
1655775248584.png

Will be very interesting to see if this plays out. IIRC GFS predicted the last rain event in May early as well (albeit with exaggerated totals), before ACCESS-G and EC jumped on board a bit later. There are a couple of EC ensembles forecasting 25-75mm but the majority are forecasting just some coastal showers over the next 10 days.

Not sure how other soils in SEQLD are faring, but the soils at my place are still surprisingly muddy, even after the last 2-3 weeks of sunshine. I'd say anything over 25mm will easily get the ground saturated again and anything over 50, will get the creeks going again. Definitely something to keep an eye on over the next few model runs.

The multiweek EC ensemble products were actually predicting that May rainfall from about 2 weeks out @Proudyno1

The upcoming potential widespread rainfall's also been appearing in the EC deterministic for a number of days now but only every now and then. Its ensemble's currently undecided on what'll happen.

GFS can be handy for a "something might happen a couple of weeks from now" type of early heads-up and they do sometimes eventuate but its false alarm ratio is so high at that range that it's hard to tell whether it'll be one of those scenarios that do come off, or if it's just a mirage that disappears in future runs. On average, its longer range synoptic skill is less than that of models such as EC.

For example, it wasn't that long ago when GFS was consistently trying to push significant snowfalls up over the Downs whereas most other models kept it south of the border.... and the end result was that snowfalls stayed south of the border.

Of course, I'm not saying for one moment that GFS won't come off. It could come true and it'd be a pretty foolhardy person to write it off yet. Just that at this range, it's always better to keep a really open mind about it all until things firm up.

This is another one of those situations where it's often better to use a bit of a middle of the ground approach between the various models (with a bias towards the historically more reliable models) rather than a "which model will win" type of mindset.

Above is a 2-week multimodel graph for Brisbane. It uses the ensemble means of the past two runs of the CMC ensemble (red), FNMOC ensemble (blue), and GEFS (green). The key thing here is that it does seem to suggest that something might happen but for Brisbane at least, it's more a question of whether it'll be just some showers or a big rain event.

I know what you mean though... it can be interesting to speculate and see which scenario gets closest.
 

Vinny

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
2,207
9,739
363
Yeppoon Queensland
Latest GFS on 36mm next Wednesday also a pattern of strengthening SE winds very windy . Starts off on Sunday then really windy mid week. Both OCF and GFS have the minimum temps here rising.

I've notice more wind this month and last than for the past several months when it was flooding down in Brisbane we had weeks of very light winds and occasionally it would go SE here in January and it was still very light winds. Very troughy with storms .

Don't really need much wind to keep it cool here now it already is.

The EC model (copy pasted from another page) this morning to me looks more realistic, GFS always seems to be exaggerating .

1655776642669.png
 

Proudyno1

Hard Yards
Dec 29, 2021
41
400
83
Parkinson, QLD
1655775248584.png



The multiweek EC ensemble products were actually predicting that May rainfall from about 2 weeks out @Proudyno1

The upcoming potential widespread rainfall's also been appearing in the EC deterministic for a number of days now but only every now and then. Its ensemble's currently undecided on what'll happen.

GFS can be handy for a "something might happen a couple of weeks from now" type of early heads-up and they do sometimes eventuate but its false alarm ratio is so high at that range that it's hard to tell whether it'll be one of those scenarios that do come off, or if it's just a mirage that disappears in future runs. On average, its longer range synoptic skill is less than that of models such as EC.

For example, it wasn't that long ago when GFS was consistently trying to push significant snowfalls up over the Downs whereas most other models kept it south of the border.... and the end result was that snowfalls stayed south of the border.

Of course, I'm not saying for one moment that GFS won't come off. It could come true and it'd be a pretty foolhardy person to write it off yet. Just that at this range, it's always better to keep a really open mind about it all until things firm up.

This is another one of those situations where it's often better to use a bit of a middle of the ground approach between the various models (with a bias towards the historically more reliable models) rather than a "which model will win" type of mindset.

Above is a 2-week multimodel graph for Brisbane. It uses the ensemble means of the past two runs of the CMC ensemble (red), FNMOC ensemble (blue), and GEFS (green). The key thing here is that it does seem to suggest that something might happen but for Brisbane at least, it's more a question of whether it'll be just some showers or a big rain event.

I know what you mean though... it can be interesting to speculate and see which scenario gets closest.
100% agree, I do like looking at the long range GFS forecasts just as a sort of 'heads-up' approach of what could be coming. The amount of times over the summer GFS was forecasting a cat 4 cyclone streaming down the QLD coast and smashing Brisbane was quite funny.

Still it's important to keep an eye on things, the reason I'm a bit interested in this possible rain, even if its only 50mm, is the potential to keep the ground sodden over winter. With La Niña, still hanging around, and the IOD beginning to turn negative, it could be a very interesting situation heading into spring and summer. Hopefully we can have a break from the intense rainfall, but I have a feeling this La Niña still has a couple of tricks up it's sleeve.

Anyway that's all speculative, lets enjoy our lovely winter days while they last, the next week is looking amazing.
 

Rays74

One of Us
Ski Pass
Feb 8, 2020
630
6,961
263
I was just reading some articles about the winter and summer solstice.

I found it interesting that we have approximately 4h 30m less sunlight compared to summer solstice.

Didn't realise the gap was that large!

Input your city or location into the search box.

 

Naturestorms91

One of Us
Oct 22, 2021
212
1,735
213
Bayside Brisbane - Wakerley
I was just reading some articles about the winter and summer solstice.

I found it interesting that we have approximately 4h 30m less sunlight compared to summer solstice.

Didn't realise the gap was that large!

Input your city or location into the search box.

Do you mean 3 hours and 29 minutes?

Today is at 10 hours and 24 minutes as shortest day.
On 21st of December its 13 hours and 52 minutes.
That equals 3 hours and 29 minutes.

Unless you live down in Sydney that is about 4 hours and half.
 

Rays74

One of Us
Ski Pass
Feb 8, 2020
630
6,961
263
Do you mean 3 hours and 29 minutes?

Today is at 10 hours and 24 minutes as shortest day.
On 21st of December its 13 hours and 52 minutes.
That equals 3 hours and 29 minutes.

Unless you live down in Sydney that is about 4 hours and half.

Yes sorry!
I'm in Toowoomba , so yes that would be 3h 29m.

4h 30m would confuse the milking cows and cause the curtains to fade quicker LOL
(JOKING)
 

Gleno71

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
1,369
8,102
363
Gold Coast, Queensland
Our most ‘northerly’ sunrise for this year.
The red mark is the southern most sunrise around Dec 21.
Quite an arc of horizon in 6 months.

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Its weird to see the opposite in the NH . Was watching a live you tube show from LAX and when the sunset over there , it was setting in the north west . During the day the sun seems to be in a more southern direction.
 
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Vinny

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
2,207
9,739
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Yeppoon Queensland
OCF and GFS still sticking with something up my way OCF about 16mm in total from Mon-Wed and GFS back from extreme levels to 23mm on Thursday.

25mm would be perfect . Just enough to keep the garden going.

When I go into Meteologix by July 1 which is still a fair way out by next Friday morning

EC models have us on pretty much nothing a couple of mm

GEM has 20mm , Access has 35mm and of course GFS the most on 51mm.

I'll keep fingers crossed for 20-30mm.

Hopefully something falls in areas that do need it not areas that don't.

---

Edited to add : I do my online shopping for pick up today looks like I won't be buying lettuce , tomatoes or brocolli ... frozen veges plenty available seems so cheap might have to go that way not going to pay $11.99 for a kg of tomatoes ... frozen brocolli is about 5 bucks a kg or less. ... no such thing as frozen lettuce lol but it's not lettuce weather really at the moment for meals...


I don't know why capsicums are so expensive as I thought they grew further north and no floods there...
 

Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
2,385
13,643
363
Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 22 Jun 2022
Time: 9:30 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 7 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 23.4 C
Min Ground Temp: 4.8 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

Temperature: 18 C
Relative Humidity: 67 %
Dew Point: 11.7 C
MSL Pressure: 1023.2 hPa
Wind Speed: Calm
Wind Direction: Calm

Present Weather: No cloud development observed
Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 0/8
Ground State: Ground moist

Notes of yesterday weather - 21/6/22: Sunny with some Cu and Sc clouds. The temperature fell from early that was near average becoming slightly cool from early morning while starting to rise. From the mid morning the temperature became near average and slightly warm from the middle of the day while reaching the maximum temperature in the early afternoon. The temperature fell in the afternoon and evening, close to average. Dew point was close to average that fell from early, rose in the morning, rose slowly in the mid morning before falling from the mid afternoon, though briefly rose in the late afternoon. Relative humidity was close to average that rose slowly from early, before falling from the morning. From the early afternoon the relative humidity rose that was slightly below average eased to slightly above average late in the afternoon and near average in the evening. Mostly calm winds from early, then S to SW from the mid morning, tending SSE to ENE later in the morning. Light and variable winds in the middle of the day and early afternoon before tending W to SW during the afternoon before mostly calm winds from the late afternoon.

Today: Near average temperature at the start of the day became slightly cool during the early hours and early this morning while falling. As the temperature rose this morning the temperature has eased to slightly cool. Dew point fell from early that was near average becoming slightly below average from later in the early hours, before rising from early this morning, while easing to near average. Relative humidity rose slowly from early before falling this morning that has been close to average. Mostly calm winds.
 

PlumbBob

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 5, 2019
440
4,217
263
Molendinar
Just now...
Super deep red colour sunset.
A few stars can be seen.

I'm not an astrologer , perhaps Mars and Venus (or Jupiter).

IMG20220622175404.jpg
IMG20220622175345.jpg
Thats one Sirius star ;-) 'constellation Canis Major' All the visible planets are up over in the East before sunrise @Rays74
Nice pics of late Ray..
BTWay, most astrologers would not even know if the moon was up on a particular night unless they looked and it wasnt cloudy, let alone identifying a planet.
Its an astronomer that know what them points of lights are :p :cool:
------------------------------------
---------------
Looks a bit of wet around on the cards at close of month and start July. see how the Synoptics play out, noticed at the time a possible large high in the south will have an influence depend how strong and what latitude it gets up to, this could be a decider in how well the moisture profiles would work, long way out and plenty of senarios, eg, mid and upper level wind profiles, whether any off-shore lows come to be etc ?
-----------
Watching on with interest.....
 

Rays74

One of Us
Ski Pass
Feb 8, 2020
630
6,961
263
Thats one Sirius star ;-) 'constellation Canis Major' All the visible planets are up over in the East before sunrise @Rays74
Nice pics of late Ray..
BTWay, most astrologers would not even know if the moon was up on a particular night unless they looked and it wasnt cloudy, let alone identifying a planet.
Its an astronomer that know what them points of lights are :p :cool:
------------------------------------
---------------
Looks a bit of wet around on the cards at close of month and start July. see how the Synoptics play out, noticed at the time a possible large high in the south will have an influence depend how strong and what latitude it gets up to, this could be a decider in how well the moisture profiles would work, long way out and plenty of senarios, eg, mid and upper level wind profiles, whether any off-shore lows come to be etc ?
-----------
Watching on with interest.....
Kind , thoughtful words.
Great knowledge you have too.
Cheers.
 

Vinny

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
2,207
9,739
363
Yeppoon Queensland
The state government has given the 40million so Mt Morgan south of Rockhampton can build the water pipeline and should save Rockhampton council apparently 5000 dollars a day in trucking water down there..and get the residents off level 6 water restrictions where you are only allowed to water your garden with a watering can or small container.

Screenshot_20220623-065844_Water Storage.jpg


Screenshot_20220623-070711_OneDrive.jpg
 

Ken Kato

A Local
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
5,087
47,405
563
Brisbane
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More very-belated autumn colour spam from my maples, courtesy of the chilly weather that kicked off our winter. They're now finally past their peak. The colours had to be seen to be believed this year. Their sheer vibrance level rivalled the ones in the autumn of 2015. I actually had to turn down the saturation levels of the photos after uploading because the extremely vibrant colours blew out the saturation in the original raw pics. And even then, it wasn't quite enough. When you look at them in person, they almost looked like they were fluorescent.

A few chillier nights/mornings coming up for us this weekend.

Some areas might also get fog tomorrow morning.
 

Vinny

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
2,207
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Yeppoon Queensland
Looks like Yeppoon is heading for the driest June on record (records go back to 94).


0.8mm the driest is 6.0mm in 2017

The average is 52.8mm.

Last year was above average.

GFS still sticking with some shower event and temps dropping but pushed it to about July 1

14 deg in Rocky as a maximum... that's ridiculously cold given the average is 23deg for July

1656026286316.png


Should I just ignore GFS ? Access has about 4mm by the next 10 days.

GEM and GFS the only ones going for big amounts. 20-50mm
 

Multiversity

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 29, 2019
850
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This article caught my attention & the photo really caught my attention - it's in Auchenflower, Bris, just around the corner.



Rare ‘triple’ La Niña climate event looks likely — what does the future hold?​

Meteorologists are forecasting a third consecutive year of La Niña. Some researchers say similar conditions could become more common as the planet warms.
1656026252668.png
 

Ken Kato

A Local
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
5,087
47,405
563
Brisbane
Looks like Yeppoon is heading for the driest June on record (records go back to 94).


0.8mm the driest is 6.0mm in 2017

The average is 52.8mm.

Last year was above average.

GFS still sticking with some shower event and temps dropping but pushed it to about July 1

14 deg in Rocky?

1656026286316.png

Never put complete faith into a single model by itself at that kind of range @Vinny , especially GFS.

Always look at a range of models. GFS is going for 14C because its scenario is for a thick cloudband over Rocky that day with some rain, and SW winds undercutting it.
 

Vinny

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
2,207
9,739
363
Yeppoon Queensland
Rare ‘triple’ La Niña climate event looks likely — what does the future hold?

I hope we see some cloud and wind and showers this summer , the last summer was horrendous and not what a "usual" Capricorn Coast summer is like. I can take humid days , but no breezes in the afternoon , no clouds , dew points over 25 degrees for 2 to 3 weeks ... no thanks. Dog gave up walking along the beach it was that humid and still . I suppose that is what living in Far North Qld is like?

SE Qld might have had low light levels ... here it was like the sun was burning a hole in the sky on you every day as we had very few clouds other than when we got an isolated storm .

Seems like La Nina has failed twice ? for parts of Central Qld ... though there must be other factors that have failed as well MJO this year . Some places seem to have been in a dry spell since 2017.
 

Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
2,385
13,643
363
Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 24 Jun 2022
Time: 9:30 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 7.1 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 23.4 C
Min Ground Temp: 4.6 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0.1 mm (Dew)

Temperature: 18.6 C
Relative Humidity: 62 %
Dew Point: 11.3 C
MSL Pressure: 1022.3 hPa
Wind Speed: light air
Wind Direction: NW

Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 0/8
Ground State: Ground moist

Notes of yesterday weather - 23/6/22: Sunny with some Sc clouds. Smoke haze. Near average temperature from early while falling becoming stable late in the early hours. The temperature became slightly cool early in the morning before rising quickly while easing to near average during the morning. From the mid morning the temperature became slightly warm that rose through to the maximum temperature in the mid afternoon. Afterwards the temperature fell, dropping back to near average from later in the afternoon. Dew point was close to average that fell from early, became stable from late in the early hours before rising from early morning. Dew point rose more slowly from the mid morning, fell in the afternoon, briefly rose again in the late afternoon before falling again afterwards. Relative humidity rose slowly, close to average before falling during the morning after briefly becoming slightly above average early in the morning and back to near average afterwards. In the afternoon the relative humidity became slightly below average before rising from later in the afternoon, close to average and briefly slightly above average early in the evening. Mostly calm winds from early. Light winds of between S and NE from the late morning with periods of calm winds, Light NW to NE winds in the afternoon with periods of calm winds. Mostly calm winds in the evening.

Today: Smoke haze. The temperature fell from early that was close to average before rising from early this morning after becoming slightly cool and eased back to near average during this morning. Dew point have been close to average that fell from early, became temporarily slightly below average early this morning and back to near average during this morning while rising. Relative humidity rose slowly from early, close to average and became slightly above average this morning before starting to fall presently. Mostly calm winds from early, before some NW winds in the last few minutes.
 

Multiversity

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 29, 2019
850
5,183
263
Vinny - Bris/SEQ/NNSW could certainly do without that summer from hell. The whole convergence zone just needs to get pushed couple of hundred kms north over Capricorn & it's all yours. Give me a cool Trade thanks very much.

I hope we see some cloud and wind and showers this summer , the last summer was horrendous and not what a "usual" Capricorn Coast summer is like. I can take humid days , but no breezes in the afternoon , no clouds , dew points over 25 degrees for 2 to 3 weeks ... no thanks. Dog gave up walking along the beach it was that humid and still . I suppose that is what living in Far North Qld is like?

SE Qld might have had low light levels ... here it was like the sun was burning a hole in the sky on you every day as we had very few clouds other than when we got an isolated storm .

Seems like La Nina has failed twice ? for parts of Central Qld ... though there must be other factors that have failed as well MJO this year . Some places seem to have been in a dry spell since 2017.
 
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