Day to Day NE NSW / QLD

Vinny

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
2,202
9,694
363
Yeppoon Queensland
I normally follow jwc on Facebook but their latest post seems more like Higgins...mentioning torment, devestation and flooding then says they estimate it a 25 percent chance. GFS I think latest run they're referring to.

They mention it moving further south into Nsw...

So I wonder if this is going to be a Se qld nnsw event again....
 

Ken Kato

A Local
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
5,081
47,345
563
Brisbane
52174041412_55f945c70b_b.jpg


Another beautiful sunrise this morning, proudly brought to you by cirrus and altocumulus cloud, the atmosphere, and the sun.

Quite chilly again though, which makes for a contrast with the only sizeable palm tree in my area. Min of 5.2C here with some isolated frost patches.
 

Weathertraveller

One of Us
Jan 23, 2020
368
3,058
263
Northern Gold Coast
I normally follow jwc on Facebook but their latest post seems more like Higgins...mentioning torment, devestation and flooding then says they estimate it a 25 percent chance. GFS I think latest run they're referring to.

They mention it moving further south into Nsw...

So I wonder if this is going to be a Se qld nnsw event again....
I've been watching the BOM forecasts for SE Qld and greater Brisbane area Vinny and they have upped the chance of rainfall and rainfall totals from Friday onwards, with Saturday now a 95% chance. The ground at my place is still saturated underneath, not soggy on top anymore, but I think we'll only need about 10mm to make it a muddy mess underfoot again. I saw the JWC FB post from earlier this morning, and I hope that doesn't eventuate.
 

Proudyno1

Hard Yards
Dec 29, 2021
41
386
83
Parkinson, QLD
I normally follow jwc on Facebook but their latest post seems more like Higgins...mentioning torment, devestation and flooding then says they estimate it a 25 percent chance. GFS I think latest run they're referring to.

They mention it moving further south into Nsw...

So I wonder if this is going to be a Se qld nnsw event again....
Yea I've been looking at a couple of pages this morning and JWC has called it quite early @Vinny, haven't even heard a peep from Higgins yet which is odd for him. Still 7 days out so it will change on the exact location but I do have to agree that this morning's EC and GFS models aren't ideal for SEQLD/NENSW.

It appears that EC and Access are interested now in a surface low developing off the Wide Bay & Burnett region, before tracking south over SEQLD, sometime on either Sunday or Monday. Latest GFS run though, is going for an upper level low over central NSW before spinning a low up around the Central NSW coast. Will check out how its looking on the next GFS run at around 9am. So still a fair bit of disagreement on the system we may be dealing with, but I think it can be agreed that there is going to be some amount of rain over Coastal QLD, within the next week.

The large high pressure system @Vinny, that you were discussing earlier this week as well, could also be very influential if a surface low system develops in Queensland, possibly stalling it for an extra 24 hours or more, as it sits in the Tasman.

.
 
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Falling_Droplet

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Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
2,384
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Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 27 Jun 2022
Time: 9:35 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 7.8 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 22.9 C
Min Ground Temp: 5.3 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

Temperature: 19.6 C
Relative Humidity: 64 %
Dew Point: 12.6 C
MSL Pressure: 1023.1 hPa
Wind Speed: Calm
Wind Direction: Calm

Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 5/8
Ground State: Ground moist

Notes of yesterday weather - 226/6/22: Sunny with Ci and Sc clouds. Smoke haze with some mist early in the morning. The temperature fell slowly from early that was cool, before rising from the early morning that eased to near average from the mid morning. After the maximum temperature was reached in the early afternoon the temperature fell that fell less quickly later in the evening, while becoming slightly cool becoming stable at the end of the day. Dew point was slightly below average while falling, before rising from early in the morning while easing to near average. From the mid morning the dew point rose slowly, then fell slowly from the middle of the day, rose slightly late in the afternoon, before falling in the evening. Relative humidity rose slowly from early, before falling quickly during the morning that was close to average and slightly above average early in the morning. Relative humidity became slightly below average from the mid morning while falling less quickly. From the mid afternoon the relative humidity rose, easing to near average in the evening. Mostly calm winds from early, before light S to SW winds from the mid morning and some SSE to ENE winds in the middle of the day. Light WNW to NNE winds from the early afternoon with some variable winds before mostly calm winds from the late afternoon. Light W to SW winds for a period during the evening.

Today: Mostly near average from early that was briefly slightly cool at the start of the day. The temperature became slightly cool early this morning and eased to near average in the last hour while rising quickly during this morning. Dew point have have been mostly near average which generally fell slowly from early, before rising from this morning. Relative humidity have been close to average that rose slowly from early, before falling quickly this morning. Mostly calm winds from early with some variable winds.
 

PeteJ

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 5, 2019
653
4,130
263
66
Toowoomba
This upcoming rain system starting to be discussed in the NSW/ACT Thread. Watched a story on Landline about the devastating affects of the late Feb flood and following rain on farming on the Northern Rivers. It mainly focused on Lismore, Casino and downstream. Probably rural industries in SE QLD would be in the same predicament. Any major rainfalls would make an already miserable situation even worse.
 

Nature's Fury II

One of Us
Dec 25, 2021
431
3,165
213
West Brisbane
Way too much uncertainty to be able to call anything right now and we might possibly not know for days yet. Proudly's earlier post sums up the latest model trends pretty well. EC ensembles are all over the place as well with a variety of scenarios and no particular trend being favoured.

What is clear though is that this set-up does have significant potential for very serious rain and flooding. Model trends seem to be shifting toward far coastal regions/offshore for QLD and onshore along the NSW coast.

EC and CMC show the higher-end potential for SEQ/NE NSW:

27.6.22 12z EC.png
27.6.22 12z GEM.png

Also of interest is that we are going to have massive easterly trade winds across almost the entire length of the Pacific feeding into the system during this event.

27.6.22 850hpa zonal wind.png
 

Gleno71

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
1,368
8,089
363
Gold Coast, Queensland
Personally, I don't bother looking beyond 3-4 days as things can change and unless you are in a flood prone area , Whats the benefit of knowing if its going to rain beyond 7 days unless massive amounts are forecast or if you are a farmer ? I rarely watch weather pages now except for the SBS page as in my opinion , it seems to be all about "which page gets the forecast right " . There are way too many weather pages out there with different opinions and it becomes too confusing.

Sometimes i wish social media was never invented

Cheers
 

Ken Kato

A Local
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
5,081
47,345
563
Brisbane
52176069369_da1a4fa77b_b.jpg


At the risk of stating the obvious (and as is often the case with these types of setups), if/where/when an ECL or deep trough develops will be crucial as to who gets the heavier rain.

If an ECL develops fairly early on in the piece, it'll quickly start focusing the heavier rainfall in coastal areas to its south at the expense of areas to its north (although even the latter may still get some reasonable rain from the upper trough/low before that happens).

If it develops later in the piece or it doesn't become a well-defined low, the rainfall will probably cover a broader area.

On the other hand, if a deep surface trough forms instead of an ECL, its positioning would also effect rainfall. A bit too far offshore and the heaviest falls would remain offshore. Close to the coast and areas near and to the south of it would get a deluge.

Although the surface of the soil here isn't as sodden anymore, it still feels and looks wet. The lower temps haven't been helping with evaporation that's for sure.
 

Ken Kato

A Local
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
5,081
47,345
563
Brisbane
1656301299470.png


Poor Perth in W.A has only had 60.6mm and their average is 126.2mm and no cold fronts coming in the outlook.

Meanwhile normally dry NT and Qld is potentially getting rain.

Crazy.


1656301470466.png



It's also been remarkably dry all up and down the east coast as well @Vinny
 
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Ken Kato

A Local
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
5,081
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Brisbane
Just to add to my previous comment about Sydney, what's even more of a feat is the fact that June is typically the wettest month of the year there (although it's almost a tie with March). And yet, aside from the fact that their rainfall so far this month is in the lowest 5% of all past Junes, it's almost a tie with their 3rd driest month (Sep) of the year in terms of monthly median rainfall.

Similar story with Brisbane so far this month - we're also in the lowest 5% of all past Junes.

Neither are record breakers though.

But there's still a few days to go til the month's over so it remains to be seen whether that stays the case.
 

Ken Kato

A Local
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
5,081
47,345
563
Brisbane
1656303900169.png


I knew the westerlies wouldn't last . Our region is a magnet of south East/ east trades. Not sure what's keeping this particular. high further south . Typical summer pattern coming up . Fronts have disappeared . I think Ken mentioned a while back that the rosby wave have influence on highs and lows but I can't remember

E to SE winds still aren't that common in winter here @Gleno71
W to SW winds are the dominant winds here in winter, and especially as you get later into the season.

Always a good idea to avoid assuming that synoptic weather patterns always neatly follow a calendar. There'll always be periods during a season when a particular synoptic pattern bucks the overall seasonal norm.

In fact, you'll rarely get westerlies lasting through the entire winter without some kind of break from synoptic scale winds coming from another direction.

But if an onshore flow were to become dominant for the rest of this season or not, then that would be pretty unusual, even given the lingering remnants of a LaNina-like atmospheric behaviour.

Whenever they happen for a prolonged period in winter and you're wondering why, always have a look at: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Southern-Ocean
I've posted the current graph above. You can see with an instant glance that the SAM's going strongly positive which is consistent with onshore flow.
 

Weathertraveller

One of Us
Jan 23, 2020
368
3,058
263
Northern Gold Coast
52176069369_da1a4fa77b_b.jpg


At the risk of stating the obvious (and as is often the case with these types of setups), if/where/when an ECL or deep trough develops will be crucial as to who gets the heavier rain.

If an ECL develops fairly early on in the piece, it'll quickly start focusing the heavier rainfall in coastal areas to its south at the expense of areas to its north (although even the latter may still get some reasonable rain from the upper trough/low before that happens).

If it develops later in the piece or it doesn't become a well-defined low, the rainfall will probably cover a broader area.

On the other hand, if a deep surface trough forms instead of an ECL, its positioning would also effect rainfall. A bit too far offshore and the heaviest falls would remain offshore. Close to the coast and areas near and to the south of it would get a deluge.

Although the surface of the soil here isn't as sodden anymore, it still feels and looks wet. The lower temps haven't been helping with evaporation that's for sure.
That picture looks very much like parts of my yard here Ken, the soil moisture is certainly above average and I think it won't take much at all to make it a muddy mess again, so not looking forward to more rain. BOM have upped their rain forecasts again this afternoon with it starting Thursday, but the weekend and Monday is looking wet wet wet in the greater Brisbane area according to BOM forecasts. I personally won't be surprised if we get over 100mm.
 

Sandbank

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
755
6,766
263
Caloundra South and Stanthorpe
Keeping an on the commentary here. We've only really just dried out. The erosion damage was just fixed a week ago from the last flood. Keeping all available digits crossed it goes where it's needed this time.

An 0.2 deg start gave us a lighter frost, but some happy furry friends. The South-Westr broke up our run of perfect still winter days a tad.
20220627_165925.jpg
20220627_164330.jpg
20220627_080024.jpg
20220627_075729.jpg
 

Rainbomb

One of Us
Dec 3, 2019
193
1,448
263
Caboolture
2 parts of the system. The most likely light-moderate rain from the NW rainband over Friday/Weekend. Then the unpredictability of the development of the coastal trough/low and where it forms. 7 days until that part happens and lots of things can go wrong until then. This year is the Sort of year where everything seems to line up perfectly for every event and we get the worst case scenario.
 

Gleno71

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
1,368
8,089
363
Gold Coast, Queensland
1656303900169.png




E to SE winds still aren't that common in winter here @Gleno71
W to SW winds are the dominant winds here in winter, and especially as you get later into the season.

Always a good idea to avoid assuming that synoptic weather patterns always neatly follow a calendar. There'll always be periods during a season when a particular synoptic pattern bucks the overall seasonal norm.

In fact, you'll rarely get westerlies lasting through the entire winter without some kind of break from synoptic scale winds coming from another direction.

But if an onshore flow were to become dominant for the rest of this season or not, then that would be pretty unusual, even given the lingering remnants of a LaNina-like atmospheric behaviour.

Whenever they happen for a prolonged period in winter and you're wondering why, always have a look at: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Southern-Ocean
I've posted the current graph above. You can see with an instant glance that the SAM's going strongly positive which is consistent with onshore flow.
Thanks Ken , im sorry I just sometimes repeat myself too much and get frustrated with myself because I don't understand the patterns all the time .
 

Ken Kato

A Local
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
5,081
47,345
563
Brisbane
Thanks Ken , im sorry I just sometimes repeat myself too much and get frustrated with myself because I don't understand the patterns all the time .

All good, it's probably easier to remember two single overarching principles rather than trying to understand the intricacies of all the patterns.

Firstly, that one I mentioned - synoptic patterns and weather conditions will rarely be the textbook type for a particular season through the entire season. There'll always be exceptions from time to time. It's when those exceptions are persistent, frequency, or intensity are a lot less or more than normal for a given phase of ENSO, IOD, SAM, etc that it becomes unusual.

Secondly, if you're mystified about what's causing a certain type of weather, just have a look at what the surface and midlevel winds/temps are doing on maps from sources like Windy, Stormcast, etc. Most of the time, that'll give you an instant idea of why a certain type of weather's happening.
 

Proudyno1

Hard Yards
Dec 29, 2021
41
386
83
Parkinson, QLD
Just got home from work to check out some of the models, wow EC is looking very interesting. A lot more members are starting to jump on the train, but like @Nature's Fury II mentioned, they are still generally all over the place. GFS runs have been fairly consistent over the last few days, and access can't decide if it will flood SEQLD or Sydney.

All the ingredients are there, now we just have to wait and see what will eventuate.
 
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