Day to Day NE NSW / QLD

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Falling_Droplet

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Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
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Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 5 Jul 2022
Time: 9:30 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 9.7 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 14.2 C
Min Ground Temp: 9 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 10.9 mm

Temperature: 11 C
Relative Humidity: 97 %
Dew Point: 10.6 C
MSL Pressure: 1014.6 hPa
Wind Speed: light air
Wind Direction: SSW

Present Weather: intermittent, slight rain
Visibility: 2000m to 3999m - Poor Visibility
Cloud Cover: 8/8
Ground State: Ground moist

Notes of yesterday weather - 4/7/22: Cloudy with Cu, Ac and Ns clouds. Light rain periods from mid afternoon. The temperature fell slowly from early, slightly warm becoming warm for a brief period late in the early hours before rising a little during the morning while easing to near average and to cool from the mid morning. From later in the morning the temperature fell slowly, while becoming cold and fell a little more quickly from the mid afternoon while becoming very cold. In the evening the temperature fell very slowly, after easing to cold late in the afternoon, easing to cool in the early evening and further during the evening to near average later in the evening. Dew point fell from early, before starting to rise a little during the morning, close to average, dropping back to slightly below average from the mid morning. From the late morning the dew point became stable, rose a little from the mid afternoon, close to average, becoming stable in the evening. Relative humidity was moderately low which rose very slowly before early, then fell during the morning, easing to near average in the mid morning before stabilising from later in the morning, while becoming moderately high. In the early afternoon the relative humidity became high and briefly very high in the mid afternoon, while rising from the mid afternoon. In the evening the relative humidity rose slowly that eased to moderately high, and to slightly above average later in the evening. Mostly light WNW to SSW winds from early with some variable or calm winds at times, shifting to NW to SW during the morning with some variable winds. Some periods of calm winds from early in the evening with some NW to SW winds and calm winds at times.

Today: Light rain at times from early. The temperature fell very slowly from early, close to average, before rising slowly this morning, while dropping back to cool. Dew point have been near average that was stable before rising a little during this morning. Relative humidity have been stable from early which was near average, becoming high in the past hour. Mostly calm winds at times with some W to SSW winds, and SW to SE presently.
 

Vinny

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Jul 4, 2019
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Yeppoon Queensland
5.9 deg apparent temp now in Samuel Hill

7.7 Yeppoon

1656982080864.png


For some reason the WSW wind picked up guess that's why it dropped the apparent temp.

Weatherzone has it lower

1656982199182.png
 
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William

A Local
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Jan 1, 1970
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Cairns
Cairns Aero (default Cairns reporting station, mangrove swamp) has reached 20, Cairns Racecourse (better reflection of most urban areas) briefly reached 19. The local weather station in my suburb has reached a peak of 16.8 after starting at 16.4.
This is some seriously odd ball weather. If I get the time in a few weeks I'll see if I can extract the hourly obs for Cairns and try to find other comparable temps reported between 10am to 3pm. The lowest max temps unfortunately don't reflect other similar cold events as just a couple of minutes of cloud break before an hourly reading can jump the temp considerably.
 

Ken Kato

A Local
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
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Brisbane
139mm from all this rain in my gauge.

Not sure why but GFS has cold days continuing but OCF doesn't . Noticed the same pattern for my area

OCF and GFS Brisbane below , has 14 deg next week again in Brisbane.

1657000804709.png

If you have a look at GFS and compare it to some of the other models that also make up the OCF system (EC, UK, ACCESS-G, etc), you'll probably see why.

GFS is just one of the models in OCF. OCF attempts to remove any recent systemic biases from the models and takes an average of their forecasts to arrive at its final forecast temps.
 
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Proudyno1

One of Us
Dec 29, 2021
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Parkinson, QLD
Max of 12.5 here today, exact same maximum as yesterday, with 6mm in the gauge. Ground is saturated again and also noted that the creeks are starting to run a little bit around the area.

Even though the rain feels like ice, I do have to admit I have a soft spot for the cold and have been thoroughly enjoying this weather :). Looks like QLD weather will be returning tomorrow with a very warm temperature of 21 degrees.
 

Vinny

One of Us
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Jul 4, 2019
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Yeppoon Queensland
19 deg in Yeppoon tomorrow that's 2 deg below average, Thursday 21 average, Friday 20 below again, Sat, Sun and Mon 19 deg (2 deg below again) , next Tuesday 22 deg here finally a degree above average.

Also the min average is 12 at this time of year , every min forecast is below that right through to next Tuesday.
 

Vinny

One of Us
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Jul 4, 2019
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Yeppoon Queensland
Gfs is still going with some big rain from next Friday up my way....thing is though is Gfs ever right because I cannot remember it correctly predicting any rain events in the wet season just gone here.it would hype it up only for it to not eventuate

It is going for 147mm in Yeppoon from Friday to Sunday .

That would be awesome if it was totally correct as we need about that much .

I'll take anything even 10mm.

136.8mm wasn't far off.
 

Seabreezes

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Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
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South West Rocks, NSW
Rain developed here today. 1.4mm in the 24hrs to 9am, and there's been 21.8mm since 9am. The rain has been gradually picking up here throughout the day.

The next 24 hours or so are looking pretty wet for the Mid North Coast.

A flood watch is current for every MNC river catchments (all for possible minor flooding, except for the Bellinger with possible moderate flooding).

~~

Severe Weather Warning

for HEAVY RAINFALL

For people in Mid North Coast and parts of Northern Tablelands Forecast Districts.

Issued at 4:14 pm Tuesday, 5 July 2022.
The threat of localised heavy rainfall to persist about the Mid North Coast and parts of the Northern Tablelands, while easing throughout the Hunter.
sww05072022.png

Weather Situation: Onshore flow combined with an upper trough will continue to bring persistent rainfall. A coastal trough is also forecast to develop across the northeast later this evening then deepen in response to a highly amplified upper trough and associated low on Wednesday, before pushing further offshore late Wednesday.


HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING may develop across the Mid North Coast and southeastern areas of the Northern Tablelands later this evening, continuing through Wednesday and easing late Wednesday. Six-hourly rainfall totals between 60 to 90 mm are possible, with some very isolated six-hourly totals reaching up to 125 mm.
Rainfall will further contribute to flooding already being experienced and maintains the potential for landslides.

DAMAGING WINDS are no longer expected across the warning area. However, strong and gusty winds may still provide the risk of trees toppling in softer and very saturated soils, particularly about the coastal fringe and ranges.


Locations which may be affected include Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie, Taree, Kempsey, Sawtell and Dorrigo.

Severe weather is no longer occurring in the Hunter district and the warning for this district is CANCELLED.


~~


Coffs spent most of the day around 14 degrees but it's actually got warmer since the wind swung to ESE after sunset and the heavier rain developed this evening. It has warmed to a late maximum today of 17.6°C at 7:16pm.
 

Ken Kato

A Local
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Jul 13, 2019
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Brisbane
1657012662176.png


The EC ensemble meteogram for Brisbane's going for another lowering of max and particularly min temps by the weekend (due to the way the UTC time positions are marked on that graphic, the min temps are for the next day).

There are some outliers which become less keen on sustaining the colder min temps later into the weekend but otherwise, looks somewhat chillier.
 

Flowin

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 5, 2019
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Pinjarra Hills, QLD
Japan’s JAXA global rainfall watch recently released 3D rainfall watch making their 3D scans available

It doesn’t scan all rainfall but does get notable rainfall when/where the satellite orbit swathes pass over.

I found this example 1:33pm 31 October 2020 caught the north western areas of Halloween 2020 SEQ hail storms and offshore NSW (but unfortunately the swathe did not fully cover SEQ coastal areas). Edit: I also recently read that the insurance claims from the Halloween storms did eventually exceed $1billion.

image below shows the swathe coverage, and this video link shows the 3D structure

F0DA832A-AB5C-4B8D-ABB6-4F33646E4A97.png

NASA also produce 3D scans , but don’t publish all of them.
 

Ken Kato

A Local
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
5,307
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Brisbane
52195466777_1702b8ca92_b.jpg


52196470816_d90dceea4e_c.jpg


52196491213_423d7541b7_b.jpg


Image 1 - Yesterday's example of "it's not taking much for my yard to get pools of water".
Image 2 - Current radar.
Image 3 - Current view at my place this morning.

Yep still raining here too. Fog also rolled in last night while it was raining, which then became mist after awhile.

Looks like Brisbane's max temp so far since 9am yesterday is 13C (reached at 6:30 this morning) but I'd have to double check to see if there were any higher temps overnight.

For perspective, the record lowest max temps for the winter months in Brisbane using both the new and old site are 11.3C for June (set in 1916)..... 10.6C for July (1938)..... and 10.2C for August (1954).
 

Ken Kato

A Local
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
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Brisbane
The media sadly uses the "feels like " temp these days for click bait. I always go by the official temp which is what we should be going by , unless the bom is happy to use the feels like temp as the official figure

As I was saying the other week, the feels-like temp is exactly that @Gleno71 - what it theoretically *feels* like to many people after factoring in things like winds, humidity, etc because those factors can often make it feel a lot colder or hotter than what the actual temp indicates.

Of course there is a degree of subjectivity to feels-like temps but I don't see a problem with including it in forecasts. I don't think it's rocket science. For example, there's often times when there's gusty southwesterlies but the actual temp belies the fact that it feels a lot cooler than what it indicates.
Or to use another example, someone who looks at a forecast temp for the day of say 31C to decide whether heat stroke might be a factor for outdoor work all day might think it's no big deal... but the feels-like temp might be closer to 40C because it's so humid with no winds.

The actual air temp is a scientific physical measurement of the average kinetic energy of air molecules vibrating around. Just like how speed is a measurement of how much distance an object covers in a certain time. Or how density is a measurement of how much mass something has for a given volume.

Perception/feels-like should never be confused with the true measurement. The two are separate things. If an accurate calibrated speedo shows that you're going at 100km/hr but you feel like you're going at 80km/hr, it doesn't mean you're going at 80km/hr. Or if something weighs 40kg using accurate calibrated scales but it feels like it weighs 60kg, it doesn't mean its weight is 60kg.

To put it more simply, one is what it feels like..... the other is what it actually is. Simple :)
 

Weathertraveller

One of Us
Jan 23, 2020
384
3,187
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Northern Gold Coast
63mm here, and currently not raining, looks like a couple of more showers may come through. I got all excited when I saw a tiny bit of blue sky to my west, but the clouds covered it again quickly. My yard is so very saturated water is just sitting on the surface even though it's on a slope. I hope it clears by lunchtime, or am I being optimistic ?
 
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