Day to Day NE NSW / QLD

Ken Kato

A Local
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
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Brisbane
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00z ACCESS-C and EC were trying to develop some sea fog around Wide Bay waters tomorrow which lasted well into the morning but 06z ACCESS-C isn't keen on the idea now. Conditions don't look too bad for it though with waters being colder than normal near the coast.

Tomorrow's front may be accompanied by a possible narrow band of some shower activity (as per EC and ACCESS-C - I haven't checked the others) moving across in the afternoon and early evening but even if any do make it across the ranges and affect some places, any rainfall accumulations look very low due to the speed at which they move across and partial evaporation into the drier westerly flow below.

They look a bit more likely along the ranges themselves, more-so near and to the south of the border.

Multimodel animation for probability of rainfall during tomorrow above. Also above is the 2-week graph for probability of rainfall for Brisbane using the 12z runs of the grand ensemble I use.
 

Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
2,435
14,030
363
Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 26 Jul 2022
Time: 7:10 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 8.2 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 22.1 C
Min Ground Temp: 5.5 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0.1 mm
Temperature: 8.4 C
Relative Humidity: 96 %
Dew Point: 7.9 C
MSL Pressure: 1016.7 hPa
Wind Speed: Calm
Wind Direction: Calm

Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 1/8
Ground State: Ground moist

Notes of yesterday weather - 25/7/22: Sunny. The temperature fell from early, before rising from early in the morning that was close to average and generally rose less quickly from later in the morning to the maximum temperature in the mid afternoon. From the mid afternoon the temperature fell that remained close to average. Dew point was close to average that fell from early, before rising during the morning that became slightly above average in the mid morning. From later in the morning the dew point fell slowly that eased to eased to near average before rising a little later in the afternoon, slightly above average. In the evening the dew point fell, close to average. Relative humidity rose from early that was close to average, briefly became slightly above average early the morning, before dropping back to near average during the morning while falling. Relative humidity rose from later in the afternoon while becoming slightly above average. Calm winds with periods of NW winds before light S to SSW winds during the morning. Later in the morning the wind tended to ENE to ESE, then variable winds in the middle of the day, became SSE to NE during the afternoon before generally tending to NNW to NE from the mid afternoon. In the evening the wind was mostly calm.

Today: The temperature fell from early that have been close to average and slightly cool in the past hour. Dew point have been close to average that fell from early. Relative humidity rose slowly early in the day becoming stable during the early hours and early this morning. Mostly calm winds from early.
 
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Ken Kato

A Local
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Jul 13, 2019
5,353
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Brisbane
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What a beautiful 25C today forecasted. Little nip min of 10C this morning. Hope to see more of this during August as our gardens need to dry out a little to give them flowering!

Both the EC ensemble and NAEFS are currently in good agreement on a spell of above average temps across much of eastern and northern Australia during the 1st week of August (see above)..... although no high probabilities of extremes currently appearing during that period for Brisbane at least.

After that 1st week, differences between the scenarios start to appear.
 
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Slovenski

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Ski Pass
Jun 7, 2019
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Max of 24.5C here, but it much cooler on the coast and the airport due to seabreeze. Today setup is like early days of seasonal thunderstorms and summer/spring. I am loving it, it amazing for the gardens. Sad reality it going back to ordinary cold winter again from tonight :(
Dont worry too much, the heat be back before you know it but this afternoon was special, been a long while since last poolside afternoon sunset session.
Annd the bloody clouds fall in. LOL
Annnd the Westerly just hit.

Annd many bloody drops. Damn
Goin back inside
FFS
 

Multiversity

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 29, 2019
898
5,551
263
view from Rosalie an hour ago of activity to SE. Captured A320 in middle of bright Cb on approach to airport after taking long way round instead of over Bardon.

KK- re: occluded front of ECL - I must have had senior moment in analysing morphology the other day - I didn't notice the letter 'L' to the left around which fronts were rotating. Pretty obvious when I looked a little closer. :rolleyes:

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Ken Kato

A Local
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
5,353
50,227
563
Brisbane
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1st image - New York City as big afternoon thunderstorms hit yesterday during the ongoing heat. Photo taken by Dan Martland and shared by the Live Storm Chasers fb page. And yes, those particular new buildings are crooked in real life by deliberate design.

2nd image - Latest EPSgram for Brisbane with items of note circled, namely those high probabilities of lots of cloud and the warmer temps during those time periods.

3rd - What my yard was like a few days ago and what it's been like more or less for many months. I would've worn shoes (hat water was cold) but didn't want them to get soaked.

4th image - GFS going a bit wild there compared to the others.

Min of 4.8C here but only very patchy light frost due to this morning being too dry for anything more extensive.
 
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Ken Kato

A Local
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Jul 13, 2019
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Brisbane
I noticed that but on Meteologix GEM and EC were showing something from the 5th,

Do you mean on the 5th itself? The standard version of EC only goes out to 10 days and therefore, its current forecast ends on the 5th. Its ensemble goes out to just over two weeks but it too, currently still doesn't have that much for your area.

GEM also only goes out to 10 days.
 

Ken Kato

A Local
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Jul 13, 2019
5,353
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Brisbane
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I looked at our area and temperatures for the day seem normal not above average .

Ah yeah the 5th. Ok that makes sense.

This is the EC ensemble for Yeppoon @Vinny
I've circled the days where it's currently got reasonable probabilities for min and/or max temps to be above average. The ones a bit beyond that from the 5th to the 8th currently have a fair bit of uncertainty. It's not going for those temps to be extreme or anything at the moment but the maps showing the probabilities of above/below average temps only show exactly that - the probabilities. Not how much/little they're going to be above or below average. The two are often correlated but not always.

Also have to be careful when comparing temps to monthly averages during the early or late parts of a particular month outside of the middle of winter or summer because typical temps near the start of the month can be a lot different to those near the end of that month. These graphs and maps take that into account by using the simulated climate for the given time of the month.

It's not too uncommon for us to start getting more frequent bursts of warmer weather in August in amongst the cool or cold temps, but it is significant when it's sustained for long periods.
 

Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
2,435
14,030
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Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 27 Jul 2022
Time: 9:05 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 9.4 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 26.1 C
Min Ground Temp: 4.6 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

Temperature: 13.7 C
Relative Humidity: 52 %
Dew Point: 4 C
MSL Pressure: 1018.6 hPa
Wind Speed: 9 kph - light breeze
Wind Direction: WSW

Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 0/8
Ground State: Ground moist

Notes of yesterday weather - 26/7/22: Sunny before some Cu clouds later in the afternoon. The temperature fell from early that have was close to average and slightly cool before rising from early in the morning, easing to near average in the mid morning and to warm from late in the morning. After the maximum temperature was reached in the mid afternoon the temperature fell for the rest of the day, though rose for a period early in the evening with the temperature consequently becoming hot for the rest of the evening. Dew point was close to average that fell from early, then rose from early in the morning becoming slightly above average in the mid morning before rising very slowly from later in the morning becoming moderately high. From early in the evening the dew point fell becoming slightly above average and to near average during the evening. Relative humidity rose slowly early in the day becoming stable during the early hours and early in the morning. Relative humidity fell from the mid morning while becoming moderately high, easing to slightly above average later in the morning and to near average in the afternoon. From the mid afternoon the relative humidity rose, slightly above average before falling from early in the evening that dropped to moderately low and to low later in the evening. Mostly calm winds from early, then light N to NW winds late in the morning, Light N to NE in the middle of the day before light W to NW winds during the afternoon, tending to NW to NNE from the middle of the day before a light WNW to WSW wind change early in the evening, shifting to W to WSW later in the evening.

Today: The temperature steadily fell from early dropping to warm at the start of the day, to slightly warm in the middle of the early hours and to near average early in the morning. From early this morning the temperature rose that became slightly cool in the past hour. Dew point fell from early, slightly below average and moderately low later in the early hours before rising from early this morning. Relative humidity rose very slowly from early that was very low before rising from early this morning, while easing to moderately low. Light W to WSW winds that was briefly moderate at the start of the day with a brief period of WSW to SSW winds during this morning.
 

Ken Kato

A Local
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
5,353
50,227
563
Brisbane
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Next week still looking to have a fairly good likelihood of somewhat higher temps overall in SEQ but at this stage, nothing too crazy for most of those days as far as our region's concerned
(on a few of those days, the afternoon max temps may also be prevented from becoming too warm by some cloud and the possible odd bit of shower activity around).

Meanwhile, 9 degrees in Applethorpe at the moment (midday), 11.3 in Toowoomba, and 17 in Brisbane, with the occasionally gusty W to SW winds in many places (50km/hr at Brisbane Airport, 59km/hr in Toowoomba, etc) shaving a number of more degrees off those figures. Midday temps above.
 

Naturestorms91

One of Us
Oct 22, 2021
255
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213
Bayside Brisbane - Wakerley
Would be cold weather but its sunny, and the impacts from COVID, flu cases and economic changes may be the reason that my business not receiving bookings for kayaking and canoeing session this Friday. We unfortunately had to cancel the activity because we receive only two bookings. Normally 14! We haven't cancelled the activity since middle of last year.

It seems the trend of people in the community don't want to go on the water. Its a bloody good beautiful sunshine out there! We rarely see like this year due to ongoing cloudy and rain flooding weather especially the first 6 months of 2022.
 

Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
2,435
14,030
363
Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 28 Jul 2022
Time: 8:00 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 5.4 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 20 C
Min Ground Temp: 3.2 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

Temperature: 8.5 C
Relative Humidity: 87 %
Dew Point: 6.4 C
MSL Pressure: 1023.1 hPa
Wind Speed: Calm
Wind Direction: Calm

Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 0/8
Ground State: Ground moist

Notes of yesterday weather - 27/7/22: Sunny. The temperature steadily fell from early dropping to warm at the start of the day, to slightly warm in the middle of the early hours and to near average early in the morning. From early in the morning the temperature rose that became slightly cool from the mid morning and near average at times in the early afternoon. From the mid afternoon the temperature fell, slowing in the early to mid evening which was near average and became slightly warm for a period during the middle of the early hours. Dew point fell from early, slightly below average and moderately low later in the early hours before rising slowly from early in the morning. From the middle of the day the dew point fell slowly before rising slowly in the evening while remaining moderately low. Relative humidity rose very slowly from early that was very low before rising slowly from early in the morning, while easing to moderately low. During the morning and afternoon the relative humidity fell before rising from the mid afternoon. In the evening the relative humidity became low, and eased to moderately low later in the evening. Light W to WSW winds that was briefly moderate at the start of the day. Light WNW to WSW winds from the morning with brief periods of WSW to SSW winds a times before tensing WNW to W in the evening, tending to mostly W to SW during the evening before calm winds late in the evening.

Today: The temperature fell relatively steadily from early that dropped from near average at the start of the day to slightly cool during the early hours , before starting to rise during this morning, that was cool. Dew point was moderately low, easing to slightly below average from the middle of the early hours while falling very slowly before rising from early this morning. Relative humidity rose from early, moderately low while easing to slightly below average from the middle of the early hours, before starting to fall slightly during this morning. Mostly calm winds from early before light W winds from late in the early hours.
 

Vinny

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
2,466
11,092
363
Yeppoon Queensland
Weather.com has above average minimums from the 30th right up to the 11th of August , instead of 13 deg which is the average it is saying 16-17 then dropping to about 15 then 14 towards that time .

Meteologix shows some potential warm days as well , for example ACCESS G has 29 deg at 4pm on next Saturday however a lot of other models are showing 20-21 deg. ACCESS has it warming up a bit from next Thursday but will remain to be seen if it eventuates .
 

Naturestorms91

One of Us
Oct 22, 2021
255
2,088
213
Bayside Brisbane - Wakerley
Weather.com has above average minimums from the 30th right up to the 11th of August , instead of 13 deg which is the average it is saying 16-17 then dropping to about 15 then 14 towards that time .

Meteologix shows some potential warm days as well , for example ACCESS G has 29 deg at 4pm on next Saturday however a lot of other models are showing 20-21 deg. ACCESS has it warming up a bit from next Thursday but will remain to be seen if it eventuates .
OCF showing hint of warmer days and nights at the end of 10 day run. This model is average of ensembles including ACCESS.
 

Ken Kato

A Local
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
5,353
50,227
563
Brisbane
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Image 1 - My yard and my neighbour's looking as lush green as ever (despite the frosts) when it does get the limited sunshine.

Images 2 and 3 - Forecast frost for tomorrow morning. Pretty widespread again.

Images 4 and 5 - A couple of summaries from the recent WZ article whose link I posted above for anyone interested.

Not a lot of additional rain required now during the remainder of this year for parts of SEQ and eastern NSW to achieve the wettest year on record.

I'm reluctant to use Brisbane in this example because there's been some days of missing data this year so I'll use Amberley instead - 1343.2mm so far this year, which means only a bit over 50mm to go before the record for wettest year is broken (1398.1mm set during the infamous La Nina of 1974).

Meanwhile, Sydney's on 1951.4mm so far this year so only 243mm to go until they break their record as well.
Lismore Airport's AWS only recently came back up after a lengthy outage due to flood damage but it's quite possible they may have already broken their record given the totals so far this year from one of my friend's who lives just near there.
 

Naturestorms91

One of Us
Oct 22, 2021
255
2,088
213
Bayside Brisbane - Wakerley
RWM your min is quite a lot lower than ours this morning. Got down to 10C at 10pm last night and hang around 9C at night until 8am this morning got back to 10C again. Now its 12.5C.

In relating note as Ken mentioned there is signs of warmer weather next week. Max of 25-27C across the SEQ and NR next Thursday with mins around 15C. Signs of Spring there.

Meanwhile, Darwin that has seen consistent under 30C days and mins around 15C is finally going back to above 30s in day and 20s at night this weekend. Next week, Jabiru is heading back to mid 30s. Bit of a build up hint there.
 

Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
2,435
14,030
363
Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 29 Jul 2022
Time: 9:05 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 5.3 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 21.8 C
Min Ground Temp: 3 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

Temperature: 14.2 C
Relative Humidity: 76 %
Dew Point: 10 C
MSL Pressure: 1022.2 hPa
Wind Speed: Calm
Wind Direction: Calm

Present Weather: No cloud development observed
Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 0/8
Ground State: Ground moist

Notes of yesterday weather - 28/7/22: Sunny. The temperature fell relatively steadily from early that dropped from near average at the start of the day to slightly cool during the early hours, before starting to rise during the morning, that was cool easing during the morning to near average from the mid afternoon. The temperature rose slowly from the late afternoon before falling from the late afternoon that was slightly cool from early in the morning. Dew point was moderately low, easing to slightly below average from the middle of the early hours while falling very slowly before rising from early in the morning. From later in the morning the dew point was generally stable before rising a little later in the afternoon before falling in the evening. Dew point was temporarily near average late in the afternoon and early in the evening. Relative humidity rose from early, moderately low while easing to slightly below average from the middle of the early hours, before falling during the morning and returned to moderately low from the mid morning. From late in the morning the relative humidity fell slowly, easing to slightly below average from the middle of the day before rising from the late afternoon that eased to near average in the evening. Mostly calm winds from early before light W winds from late in the early hours. Wind became SSE to WSW during the morning, W to SSW or S to ESE in the afternoon with some variable winds before light WNW to SSW winds late in the afternoon. Calm winds in the evening with W winds in the middle of the evening.

Today: Slightly cool from early became cool early this morning while the temperature fell. After rising from early this morning the temperature have eased to slightly cool. Dew point fell from early, before rising from early this morning, slightly below average and to near average in the past hour. Relative humidity rose slowly from early before falling during this morning, close to average. Mostly calm winds from early.
 
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