Day to Day NE NSW / QLD

Ken Kato

A Local
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Jul 13, 2019
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I certainly did @Ken Kato , it’s been beautiful all week.

Cloudy yesterday so didn’t make it to the forecast 27, which was fine as we were out and about.

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The sun was warm when it poked through, so would have been a bit warmer than comfortable at 27 and sunny.

Some rain must have fallen overnight as the streets were damp this morning, but no rain that we saw.

This morning was mild and cloudy, then sun broke through for a lovely afternoon.

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Even the Dragons were enjoying a Saturday sunbathe.

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Gorgeous cloud formations as the skies cleared around lunchtime today.

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Thank you, Brisbane!

Yep a band of patchy rain came through overnight last night/early this morning @rime noreason - radar loop above.

Am expecting some frost to return here locally from either tomorrow or the day after.
 
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PeteJ

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Jul 5, 2019
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Looks like a uneventful normal week until a significant but fast moving ( I think)band of showers /rain moves through Friday to Saturday. Interesting about NW cloud bands. If I am wrong please say so anybody, but if I remember that event we just had after an initial band of high cloud that didn’t do anything the main band developed over the central to eastern part of the continent, of course from moisture mostly from the NW. I always considered the real NW cloud band to start out in the Indian Ocean , even right up to Indonesia then streaming from there right across the continent. Very picky I know, just as I get a little bt irritated when every rain system has to be labelled IOD/La Niña rains. Wonder if there will be neutral rains or even El Niño rains In the future.
 

Falling_Droplet

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Jul 7, 2019
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Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 7 Aug 2022
Time: 10:45 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 8.2 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 22.2 C
Min Ground Temp: 4.5 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

Temperature: 19.7 C
Relative Humidity: 45 %
Dew Point: 7.3 C
MSL Pressure: 1016.8 hPa
Wind Speed: 10 kph - light breeze
Wind Direction: SW

Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
Visibility: 40km or more - Excellent Visibility
Cloud Cover: 0/8
Ground State: Ground dry
Gale yesterday: No
Hail yesterday: No
Thunder yesterday: No
Notes of yesterday weather - 6/8/22: Mostly cloudy, becoming partly cloudy in afternoon with Cu, Sc and Ac clouds. Light showers late in the early hours. The temperature fell from early that was hot before rising from early morning, easing to warm early in the morning and near average in the mid morning and slightly cool from the late morning. Near average temperature in the afternoon, before generally falling from the mid afternoon that became slightly warm early in the evening and warm during the evening. Dew point fell slowly from early, moderately high before starting to rise a little during the morning, easing to slightly above average in the morning. From the late morning the dew point stabilised, before falling in the afternoon and evening that was moderately high, easing to slightly above average later in the afternoon and to near average during the evening. Relative humidity generally rose slowly from early, near or slightly below average before falling from early morning, becoming moderately high in the mid morning. High relative humidity from the late morning while generally falling. From the mid afternoon the relative humidity generally rose that eased to slightly above average early in the evening. During the early evening the relative humidity rose, close to average before falling afterwards, becoming moderately high before rising slowly later in the evening, slightly below average. Calm winds from early with periods of SSW to W winds with some WNW winds later in the early hours. Light NW to SW winds from late in the early hours, light WNW to WSW winds from the late morning and light W to SW during the evening.

Today: The temperature have been close to average that generally fell from early that temporarily rose later in the early hours. From early in the morning the temperature rose. Dew point fell from early, close to average before rising a little late in the early hours before falling slowly during this morning while becoming slightly below average in the past hour. Relative humidity rose slowly from early, slightly below average and near average for a period for a period in the first half of the early hours then generally became stable from later in the early hours. During this morning the relative humidity fell that was moderately low early this morning and slightly below average in the past hour. Periods of calm winds from early with W winds at times tending NW to WSW at times later in the early hours and early this morning. Light WSW to S winds during this morning.
 

Ken Kato

A Local
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Jul 13, 2019
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Brisbane
Looks like a uneventful normal week until a significant but fast moving ( I think)band of showers /rain moves through Friday to Saturday. Interesting about NW cloud bands. If I am wrong please say so anybody, but if I remember that event we just had after an initial band of high cloud that didn’t do anything the main band developed over the central to eastern part of the continent, of course from moisture mostly from the NW. I always considered the real NW cloud band to start out in the Indian Ocean , even right up to Indonesia then streaming from there right across the continent. Very picky I know, just as I get a little bt irritated when every rain system has to be labelled IOD/La Niña rains. Wonder if there will be neutral rains or even El Niño rains In the future.

Yeah classic/textbook NW cloudbands stretch from the eastern Indian Ocean near Indonesia down across central and southeast Australia in the form of a big unbroken band.

But like a lot of things in weather, there are variations to that. For example, the band can sometimes start closer to the northern NT/WA coastal border. Or it can stream more towards an ESE direction, therefore affecting areas further east than the more traditional areas.

The areas at which their southern end merges with any approaching fronts and upper troughs also often become poorly defined once the latter systems have progressed further east. Therefore, it sometimes becomes hard to see which part of a cloudband is still a pure NW cloudband and which part is mainly caused by the front and/or upper trough, especially once the northwestern end of the cloudband's contracted southeastward and becomes chopped off from its source region in the eastern Indian Ocean.

Similar with La Nina induced rains as far as variations to textbook setups go.

In order to see if a NW cloudband really is a NW cloudband or a rain event really is induced by La Nina, the various aspects of the setup have to be diagnosed in detail to see if the relevant mechanisms are causing that setup. There's also often a range of mechanisms that contribute to a setup's cloud or rain as well.
 

Ken Kato

A Local
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
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Brisbane
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Above - Rainfall percentages so far this month which show parts of inland Southern QLD and NSW have already exceeded their August average (although the rain amounts in the more interior parts are fairly low compared to the coast).

But as can be seen, it's never wise to assume the entire state will experience a dry month just because the first few days of the month appeared to be in a dry pattern. In a big state like QLD, there are often big variations to rainfall and temps.

Dewpoint of 4.6C at the moment (11:30am) in Brisbane. Min of 6.5C at my place this morning with winds preventing the min temp here from getting too low.
 
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Vinny

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Jul 4, 2019
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Yeppoon Queensland
I still don't think Yeppoon or Rocky will see much rain this month .

Was that a NW cloud band last month when Qld had those cold day temps?

Much drier today , this time yesterday we had a dew point of 19.3 deg and 87 percent humidity wheras 24 hrs later it is 13.4 deg and 60 percent. Tomorrow even lower again.

Had a look at the BOM Meteye and it has above average dew points returning from Friday into Saturday here.


7 days into August and minimums here are 3.8 deg above average .
 

Ken Kato

A Local
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Jul 13, 2019
5,353
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Brisbane
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Magnolias starting to bloom:

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Bare willows illuminated by the late afternoon sunlight:

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Cherry blossoms (a bit past their peak):

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Some phone photos I snapped at the Mt Coot-tha Botanic Gardens late this arvo. The 1st and 2nd images were taken only a few minutes apart and aside from showing the still-vibrant colours courtesy of the Tongan eruption earlier this year, they also show just how quickly the hues change.

Unfortunately, I was a few days too late to catch the peak of the Japanese cherry blossoms in full bloom there (they usually bloom pretty early here) which I was a bit bummed about. But there were still some blossoms left on the trees albeit with more leaves than blossoms now.
 
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Falling_Droplet

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Jul 7, 2019
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Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 8 Aug 2022
Time: 9:25 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 6.2 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 22.7 C
Min Ground Temp: 3.2 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

Temperature: 16.5 C
Relative Humidity: 50 %
Dew Point: 6.1 C
MSL Pressure: 1019.5 hPa
Wind Speed: 10 kph - light breeze
Wind Direction: SSW

Present Weather: No cloud development observed
Visibility: 40km or more - Excellent Visibility
Cloud Cover: 0/8
Ground State: Ground dry

Notes of yesterday weather - 7/8/22: Sunny. The temperature was close to average that generally fell from early that temporarily rose later in the early hours. From early in the morning the temperature rose, before falling from the mid afternoon which temporarily stabilised in the mid morning. Dew point fell from early, close to average before rising a little late in the early hours before falling slowly during the morning while becoming slightly below average from the mid morning. From late in the morning the dew point rose a little, easing to near average before falling from early in the afternoon, slightly below average and briefly moderately low late in the afternoon and early in the evening. Relative humidity rose slowly from early, slightly below average and near average for a period for a period in the first half of the early hours then generally became stable from later in the early hours. During the morning the relative humidity fell that was moderately low early in the morning and slightly below average from the mid morning. From the mid afternoon the relative humidity rose that became moderately low in the evening and eased to slightly below average late in the evening. Periods of calm winds from early with W winds at times tending NW to WSW at times later in the early hours and early in the morning. Light WSW to S winds during the morning, shifted to NW to SW during the afternoon, W to SW from the mid afternoon, W to WSW in the evening and WNW to WSW from the mid evening.

Today: The temperature fell from early which temporarily rose for a period during the early hours which was slightly cool at the start of the day, near average during the early hours and briefly was slightly warm for a period in the early hours when the temperature temporarily rose. The temperature then rose from early this morning that became cool, easing to slightly cool in the past hour. Dew point have been slightly below average that fell slowly from early before rising a little this morning. Relative humidity was slightly below average from early which temporarily dropped to moderately low for a period during the early hours while the relative humidity temporarily fell. From early this morning the relative humidity fell that became moderately low. Mostly calm winds from early with a period of W to SW or S to SW during the early hours before light WNW to SW winds early this morning with some calm winds before light SSW to SW winds during this morning.
 

Ken Kato

A Local
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
5,353
50,227
563
Brisbane
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A few more frost photos from here this morning. That makes it the 13th confirmed frost here so far this year, which is now only one below my annual average of 14 (but impossible to say categorically this year because there were a few "possibles" while I was away).

2-week chance of rainfall graph also above, using the grand ensemble.
 

Naturestorms91

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Oct 22, 2021
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Bayside Brisbane - Wakerley
Temperatures doesn't seem want to go past 23C anymore these days. It tend to struggle reaching that high even in sunny conditions. Looking in past July-September max temp records from BoM in 2020 and 2021 the period had more 25C days than 2022 so far. This year must be coldest on record.

August outlook doesn't much 25C days. Looking at 2020 and 2021 data there is 10 days in 2021 and 8 in 2020.
 

Ken Kato

A Local
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Jul 13, 2019
5,353
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Brisbane
Temperatures doesn't seem want to go past 23C anymore these days. It tend to struggle reaching that high even in sunny conditions. Looking in past July-September max temp records from BoM in 2020 and 2021 the period had more 25C days than 2022 so far. This year must be coldest on record.

August outlook doesn't much 25C days. Looking at 2020 and 2021 data there is 10 days in 2021 and 8 in 2020.

That's also tied in with the fact that max temps have been warmer than normal in recent years compared to this winter @Naturestorms91

For example, every year after 2016 has featured above average to very much above average max temps for the July-September period across most of Australia (the average in this context based on all the available station data since the turn of the 20th century).

Even during 2016, most of the eastern and northern coast of Australia had above average max temps with widespread below average temps inland, and a number of years leading up to have also featured above average temps across large parts of the nation.
 

Vinny

One of Us
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Jul 4, 2019
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Yeppoon Queensland
Yep 2 days ago tried to hit 25 and got to 24.4 ... having said that we did hit 26.6 on the 6th of June back when I was saying will winter ever arrive ... then it did after that lol. But yeah hasn't been going much over the average.

I remember it hitting 30.7 deg in August on the 19th 2 years ago .

Last year I also remember it kept going past 25 deg every second week it seemed.

Looking at weather.com looks like from this Thursday to Sunday above average min temps , Mon - Wed back to average again. From the 18th onwards it almost looks like September weather with 24-25 deg days and 15-16 deg nights.

I think if we didn't have that 12 deg day last month it wouldn't have been that low of an average for July.

We need 27.8 mm this month more to fall to get the average.
 

Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
2,435
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Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 9 Aug 2022
Time: 8:05 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 6.7 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 22.2 C
Min Ground Temp: 3.9 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

Temperature: 11.4 C
Relative Humidity: 87 %
Dew Point: 9.3 C
MSL Pressure: 1020.7 hPa
Wind Speed: 2 kph - light air
Wind Direction: S

Present Weather: No cloud development observed
Visibility: 40km or more - Excellent Visibility
Cloud Cover: 0/8
Ground State: Ground moist

Notes of yesterday weather - 8/8/22: Sunny. The temperature fell from early which temporarily rose for a period during the early hours which was slightly cool at the start of the day, near average during the early hours and briefly was slightly warm for a period in the early hours when the temperature temporarily rose. The temperature then rose from early in the morning that became cool, easing to near average from the mid morning. From later in the morning the temperature was near average or slightly cool before slightly cool temperature from the late afternoon, after falling from the mid afternoon. Dew point was slightly below average that fell slowly from early, becoming moderately low in the mid morning before rising a little during the morning while easing to slightly below average from later in the morning. From the middle of the day the dew point fell a little, briefly rose quickly late in the afternoon, before falling slowly in the evening, close to average. Relative humidity was slightly below average from early which temporarily dropped to moderately low for a period during the early hours while the relative humidity temporarily fell. From early in the morning the relative humidity fell that became moderately low, slightly below average from the mid morning. From the late afternoon the relative humidity rose that eased to slightly below average, eased to near average from late in the afternoon and to slightly above average late in the evening. Mostly calm winds from early with a period of W to SW or S to SW during the early hours before light WNW to SW winds early in the morning with some calm winds before light S to SW winds from the morning with some SSE winds later in the morning. Light WSW to SSE from early in the afternoon, SSW to SSE from the mid afternoon before shifting to W to SW late in the afternoon. Mostly calm winds in the evening with some WNW to WSW winds at times.

Today: Slightly cool from early, becoming cool in the past hour that fell from early before rising from early this morning. Dew point have been close to average that fell slowly from early before rising from early this morning. Relative humidity have been close to average while rising before starting to fall during this morning. Mostly calm winds from early with some W winds at times, tending to S to SSW presently.
 

Naturestorms91

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Oct 22, 2021
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Bayside Brisbane - Wakerley
That's also tied in with the fact that max temps have been warmer than normal in recent years compared to this winter @Naturestorms91

For example, every year after 2016 has featured above average to very much above average max temps for the July-September period across most of Australia (the average in this context based on all the available station data since the turn of the 20th century).

Even during 2016, most of the eastern and northern coast of Australia had above average max temps with widespread below average temps inland, and a number of years leading up to have also featured above average temps across large parts of the nation.
Yep I was looking at that data yesterday. I remembered very well that warmer July to September period lead to warm summer across the eastern seaboard and drier conditions in the north and central areas. Positive IOD and negative SAM seems the reason for this case.

2019 was memorable one that lead to severe drought and bushfires until December when the stormy change arrived from the mid latitudes.

This morning's OCF update still having 20-21C days into next week as well mins around 8C. if this keeps up for rest of August it will be coldest month again similar to July.
 

Vinny

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Jul 4, 2019
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Yeppoon Queensland
Weird how where I am May was so wet then June very very dry then July wet again and now August looks dry again . I'd be very surprised if we even get average rainfall despite what the BOM says i don't think we will see anything substantial here .

Said 11 deg but it got to 7 this morning with a feels like temp of 3.5 deg.
 

Ken Kato

A Local
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
5,353
50,227
563
Brisbane
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Image 1 - The multivariate ENSO index (factors in atmospheric aspects of ENSO such as MSLP/wind direction and speed/cloudiness and is therefore often a more useful overall indicator of ENSO state compared to SST's alone) is similar to the La Nina in 2010 but I suspect he' might be referring to the Northern Hemisphere summer of 2010 (not our 2010/2011 summer) and how it compares to their current summer.

Images 2 and 3 - EC ensemble lightning probabilities for the 10am-4pm and 4pm-10pm periods respectively for this coming Saturday. Currently, some of the models are trying to raise CAPE to near 1000j/kg around then (ahead of the next change) but although shear's also fairly strong, it looks quite linear. An early arrival of cloud cover/rainfall (such as the one in the ICON forecast above) is also a potential complicating factor for any thunder potential.
 

Rays74

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Feb 8, 2020
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Interesting article in regards to upwards lightning observed in Oklahoma, reaching up to 20km into space.

Not sure if that would be defined as a sprite, but a very interesting phenomenon rarely observed or studied.


More technical aspects of the research is here...

 

Multiversity

One of Us
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Jul 29, 2019
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Really liking that cold/warm/occluded front

1660009087637.png


52273191706_5e35077ff6_c.jpg


1660009179207.png



1660009199566.png


Image 1 - The multivariate ENSO index (factors in atmospheric aspects of ENSO such as MSLP/wind direction and speed/cloudiness and is therefore often a more useful overall indicator of ENSO state compared to SST's alone) is similar to the La Nina in 2010 but I suspect he' might be referring to the Northern Hemisphere summer of 2010 (not our 2010/2011 summer) and how it compares to their current summer.

Images 2 and 3 - EC ensemble lightning probabilities for the 10am-4pm and 4pm-10pm periods respectively for this coming Saturday. Currently, some of the models are trying to raise CAPE to near 1000j/kg around then (ahead of the next change) but although shear's also fairly strong, it looks quite linear. An early arrival of cloud cover/rainfall (such as the one in the ICON forecast above) is also a potential complicating factor for any thunder potential.
 

Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
2,435
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Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 10 Aug 2022
Time: 11:00 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 7.2 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 22.2 C
Min Ground Temp: 4 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

Temperature: 19 C
Relative Humidity: 58 %
Dew Point: 10.7 C
MSL Pressure: 1024.6 hPa
Wind Speed: 8 kph - light breeze
Wind Direction: SE

Present Weather: No cloud development observed
Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 0/8
Ground State: Ground dry

Notes of yesterday weather - 9/8/22: Sunny with some Cu clouds, and partly cloudy later in the afternoon. Slightly cool from early, becoming cool in the morning that fell from early before rising from early in the morning. From the mid morning the temperature was near average, before falling from the mid afternoon, slightly cool and near average in the evening. Dew point was close to average that fell slowly from early before rising early in the morning. From the mid morning the dew point fell slowly, becoming slightly below average from the late morning. From early in the evening the dew point was near average while falling. Relative humidity was close to average while rising before starting to fall during the morning. From the mid afternoon the relative humidity rose that was close to average. Mostly calm winds from early with some W winds at times, tending to S to SW in the morning, light WSW to SSE winds in the afternoon with some W winds, before shifting ESE to ENE early in the evening. Calm winds during the rest of the evening.

Today: The temperature generally fell from early, before rising quickly from early this morning that have been slightly cool or near average. Dew point have been near average from early that fell from early, before rising from early this morning. Relative humidity generally rose slowly from early, before falling during this morning, close to average. Mostly calm winds from early with some WSW to SSW winds, before light SSW to SSE winds during this morning.
 

Ken Kato

A Local
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
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563
Brisbane


Interesting article in regards to upwards lightning observed in Oklahoma, reaching up to 20km into space.

Not sure if that would be defined as a sprite, but a very interesting phenomenon rarely observed or studied.


More technical aspects of the research is here...


Apologies if I've misinterpreted your 2nd sentence @Rays74 but sprites and jets are two different phenomena.

Sprites are directly associated with big +ve cloud to ground lightning strokes and they usually appear well above the tops of Cb's. In contrast, jets shoot directly up from inside a thunderstorm independent of a +ve cloud to ground lightning bolt, and also travel a fair bit slower than sprites (Gigantic Jets can also reach great heights).

I never get tired of upward lightning - they can be truly spectacular as can be seen in the video example above.
 

Rays74

One of Us
Ski Pass
Feb 8, 2020
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Apologies if I've misinterpreted your 2nd sentence @Rays74 but sprites and jets are two different phenomena.

Sprites are directly associated with big +ve cloud to ground lightning strokes and they usually appear well above the tops of Cb's. In contrast, jets shoot directly up from inside a thunderstorm independent of a +ve cloud to ground lightning bolt, and also travel a fair bit slower than sprites (Gigantic Jets can also reach great heights).

I never get tired of upward lightning - they can be truly spectacular as can be seen in the video example above.


Thanks for clarifying.

I think I had to visualise the difference in my head haha.

Cheers

Screenshot_2022-08-10-13-11-52-22_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg
 

Flowin

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Ski Pass
Jul 5, 2019
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Pinjarra Hills, QLD
im supposed to be camping at imbil and taking in the magnificence of the mary valley show.
I drove thru the Mary valley yesterday after Monday night in Maryborough and went out thru Tiaro and Kilkivan Goomeri then thru Brisbane valley Yarraman to Esk, Fernvale etc. to home.
The flood markers at Maryborough and various spots up through the Mary valley were reminders of the recent repeat floods this year which although devastating were also much needed after the chronic prolonged drought across many years to 2021.
 
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