Day to Day NE NSW / SE QLD weather

Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by Jellybeans, Jul 4, 2019.

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  1. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Yeah, could be the coldest night of the week for some locations with overnight tonight/early tomorrow morning lying in the relatively sweet spot between the stronger winds prior, and the slightly milder SSE'lies after.
     
  2. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    Thanks Ken
    Yea looks cold 11 nie
     

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  3. Nature's Fury

    Nature's Fury One of Us

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  4. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    A near average maximum temperature today, with the temperature rising slowly in the afternoon to the maximum temperature. Later in the afternoon and early tonight the temperature fell quickly and became cold. During the rest of tonight the temperature has remained cold generally fell and was stable at times with a gentle breeze at times. Currently it is 9 C. The dew point stopped rising in the mid morning moderately low, then fell slightly before rising slowly during the rest of the morning moderately low. In the afternoon the dew point slowly rose returning to near average, then fell slightly in the mid afternoon, then rose later in the afternoon before falling slowly during the rest of the afternoon. Tonight the dew point have been falling slowly moderately low.

    Moderately low relative humidity during the day that was stable in the late morning and much of the afternoon, before rising quickly in the late afternoon and early tonight returning to close to average. Light and variable winds in the mid morning became W to SW, followed by S to SW in the late morning before WSW to S winds in the afternoon. In the mid afternoon were W to SW winds with some W to NW winds before calm winds later in the afternoon. Tonight winds have been mostly calm with some gently winds at times.

    Last 24 hours:

     
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  5. Retired Weather Man

    Retired Weather Man One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Location:
    Wynnum North - Brisbane - Queensland
    WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER
    26 JUNE 2020 TIME....0715
    CURRENT TEMPERATURE....9.9C
    CURRENT HUMIDITY........82%
    CURRENT DEW POINT........7C
    CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED..WSW 6Kph
    CURRENT VISIBILITY.....30KM
    CURRENT PRESSURE..1021.3Hpa
    CURRENT CLOUD......2/8 Ac, 1/8 Cc, 6/8 Ci
    CURRENT WEATHER...No significant weather
    RAIN SINCE 0900 THURSDAY..0.0mm
    SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS
    YESTERDAYS MAX TEMP..........19.8C
    THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP.......8.0C
    PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..-2.40C
    THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN......6.5C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT.......9C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR PRESSURE....1019.8Hpa
    MAX WIND GUST PAST 24 HOURS.. W 20Kph at 0923
    LAST 24 HOUR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER....No significant weather.
     
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  6. Michael Hauber

    Michael Hauber One of Us

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    Temps for last 7 days show that the extreme heat is around NE Russia and that some areas further west are cooler than average, so circulation anomalies are contributing. Interesting to note some heat around Antarctica (but middle of winter so 12 above average still comes out somewhere near -40C). The Antarctic anomalies might look like a larger area than the Siberian anomalies but that is only due to the distortion of the map being so close to the pole. Also note that the Arctic is mostly melting sea ice at this time of year so the extra heat energy goes into melting more ice rather than increasing temps which is why the anomalies do not extend into the ocean.



    Looking at SLP patterns the North Pacific high is extending into the NW Pacific towards the Phillipines more than normal. This has been a persistent feature for a few months and has been enhancing tropical trade winds and pushing ENSO conditions towards the cooler side. Tropical activity in the NW Pacific has been quiet and the tropical warm air has been pushed over land causing heavy flooding rains in China. The high pressure block also extends into NE Russia, although this part of the pattern has not been noticeably persistent. So warm air circulation from tropics towards NE Russia, and plenty of high pressure, sunshine and sinking air to further boost the warming.

     
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  7. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

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    This morning's sunrise and shelf cloud moving up from the south. Im not sure whats going on here as i thought there was no change forecasted ?
     
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  8. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Awesome photos @Gleno71
    It wasn't actually a surface change - it was the leading edge of a weak SSE wind surge at about the 950hpa level (a couple of thousand feet aloft) pushing northwards which was correctly forecast by the models.
     
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  9. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    Location:
    Ferny Grove, QLD
    Ferny Grove Weather
    Date: 26 Jun 2020
    Time: 9:05 AM

    Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 5.9 C
    Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 21.4 C
    Min Ground Temp: 5.3 C
    Rain since 9am yesterday: 0 mm

    Temperature: 16.3 C
    Relative Humidity: 65 %
    Dew Point: 9.7 C
    MSL Pressure: 1021.4 hPa
    Wind Speed: 1kph - light air
    Wind Direction: SSW

    Present Weather: Clouds generally forming or developing during the preceding hour
    Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
    Cloud Cover: 1/8
    Ground State: Ground moist

    Notes of yesterday weather - 25/6/20: Sunny with some cu clouds from the late morning and ci clouds in the afternoon. A cool morning with the temperature falling slowly or was stable during much of the early hours whilst the temperature generally fell. In the morning the temperature rose quickly in the first half of the morning and was stable during much of the afternoon. In the late afternoon and early evening the temperature fell quickly and became cold and remained cold in the evening while the temperature continued to fall but was stable with a gentle breeze at times. The dew point was stable and low in the early hours, then rose in the morning moderately low then fell slightly before rising slowly during the rest of the morning moderately low. In the afternoon the dew point slowly rose returning to near average, then fell slightly in the mid afternoon, then rose later in the afternoon before falling slowly during the rest of the afternoon. In the evening the dew point fell slowly moderately low. The relative humidity was near average early, moderately low relative humidity during the day that was stable in the late morning and much of the afternoon, before rising quickly in the late afternoon and in the early evening returning to close to average. A light breeze eased but persisted in the early hours with W to SW winds with some W to NW winds, with periods of calm winds. Winds were calm during the rest of the early hours from 4:30am, and this morning winds were initially light S to SW, then light and variable winds in the mid morning became W to SW, followed by S to SW in the late morning before WSW to S winds in the afternoon. In the mid afternoon were W to SW winds with some W to NW winds before calm winds later in the afternoon. In the evening winds have been mostly calm with some gently winds at times.

    Today: A cold night initially in the early hours, easing to cool with the temperature falling slowly or stabilising from 3pm. This morning the temperature has warmed quickly. The dew point fell slowly in the early hours and became moderately low, stable later on in the early hours before starting to rise this morning returning to near average. Near average relative humidity while slowly rising from early before falling sharply this morning becoming moderately low. Calm winds in the early hours before light WSW to SSW winds in the last 30 minutes.
     
  10. Rays74

    Rays74 Hard Yards

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    Good size frost in Toowoomba City this morning
    Officially it was 2.7c at 6am (BOM observation)
    Apparent temp was -0.2c

     
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  11. Slovenski

    Slovenski One of Us

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    Raining metal again
    When is the next decent real stuff coming?
    Spring?

     
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  12. dogski

    dogski One of Us

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    Some pretty warm temps coming up for SE QLD next week with temps in Toowoomba
    forecast to reach 22C which is 5C above average for July.
     
  13. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    good
     
  14. chunky

    chunky Old n' Crusty

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    Still some decent frost forecast for tomorrow morning.
     
  15. WarwickEye2Sky

    WarwickEye2Sky One of Us

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    Finally had our first below freezing temperature of the winter season the other morning, at minus 2. This morning was around minus 1. Hard to believe we are almost in July and we just now recorded our first temperature below 0. We had a couple of days around freezing in late May also. Above average temperatures and below average rainfall continues....
     
  16. chunky

    chunky Old n' Crusty

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    Any good frosts your way?
     
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  17. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    A near average maximum temperature wit the temperature becoming stable in the early to mid afternoon. Cool tonight with the temperature falling very steadily before stabilising late tonight. The dew point stopped rising in the mid morning before becoming mostly stable but was a bit variable from the mid morning close to average. In the mid afternoon the dew point rose briefly and then fell slowly during the rest of the afternoon and during tonight whilst remaining close to average before stabilising late tonight.

    Close to average daytime relative humidity fell quickly during the morning, was stable in the afternoon before rising later in the afternoon initially rising very quickly. Light WSW to SSW winds from the mid morning, SSW to SE from the late morning, becoming SSE to ENE in the early afternoon, then ESE to NE in the mid afternoon, followed by S to SE tending E to SE in the late afternoon. Winds have been almost entirely calm.

    Last 24 hours:
     
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  18. Retired Weather Man

    Retired Weather Man One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Location:
    Wynnum North - Brisbane - Queensland
    WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER
    27 JUNE 2020 TIME....0800
    CURRENT TEMPERATURE...12.9C
    CURRENT HUMIDITY........85%
    CURRENT DEW POINT.......12C
    CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED..WSW 7Kph
    CURRENT VISIBILITY.....30KM
    CURRENT PRESSURE..1024.5Hpa
    CURRENT CLOUD......1/8 Cu
    CURRENT WEATHER...No significant weather
    RAIN SINCE 0900 FRIDAY..0.0mm
    SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS
    YESTERDAYS MAX TEMP..........20.8C
    THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP.......9.9C
    PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..-0.95C
    THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN......8.3C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......12C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR PRESSURE....1022.2Hpa
    MAX WIND GUST PAST 24 HOURS.. SE 24Kph at 1454
    LAST 24 HOUR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER....No significant weather.
     
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  19. chunky

    chunky Old n' Crusty

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    Well I headed out for some Astro shooting at about 11.30pm last night to the Scenic Rim. It got to around 7 degrees and was a balmy 10'ish at Carrs Lookout about 3am. I was getting sleepy so didn't venture across to Killarney and the Warwick area to see if any frost was about but I'm guessing it would have been minor. It was a lot warmer than I thought it would be.
     
  20. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    Location:
    Ferny Grove, QLD
    Ferny Grove Weather
    Date: 27 Jun 2020
    Time: 10:30 AM

    Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 8.7 C
    Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 22.3 C
    Min Ground Temp: 7.7 C
    Rain since 9am yesterday: 0.1 mm (Dew)

    Temperature: 20.1 C
    Relative Humidity: 57 %
    Dew Point: 11.3 C
    MSL Pressure: 1024.2 hPa
    Wind Speed: 7 kph - light breeze
    Wind Direction: SW

    Present Weather: No cloud development observed
    Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
    Cloud Cover: 0/8
    Ground State: Ground dry

    Gale yesterday: No
    Hail yesterday: No
    Thunder yesterday: No

    Notes of yesterday weather - 26/6/20: Sunny with some ac and sc clouds in the early morning clearing. Cold in the early hours initially and easing to cool with the temperature falling slowly or became stable from 3am. In the morning the temperature warmed quickly. The temperature was stable in the early and mid afternoon. A cool evening with the temperature falling steadily before becoming stable in the late evening. The dew point fell slowly in the early hours and became moderately low, stable later on in the early hours before starting during the morning returning to near average. The dew point stopped rising in the mid morning before becoming mostly stable but was a bit variable from the mid morning close to average. In the mid afternoon the dew point rose briefly and then fell slowly during the rest of the afternoon and during the evening whilst remaining close to average before stabilising in the late evening. Near average relative humidity while slowly rising from early before falling sharply this morning becoming moderately low and became near average during the daytime. In the afternoon the relative humidity was stable before rising later in the afternoon initially rising very quickly. During the evening the relative humidity became high. Calm winds early before light WSW to SSW winds from the mid morning, SSW to SE from the late morning, becoming SSE to ENE in the early afternoon, then ESE to NE in the mid afternoon, followed by S to SE tending E to SE in the late afternoon. Winds were mostly calm in the evening.

    Today: A slightly cool night with the temperature falling slowly or was stable during most of the early hours, before rising quickly in the early morning and then rose more slowly from the mid morning. The dew point was close to average which was stable at first in the early hours, then fell slowly later on in the early hours, then rose rose quickly during the morning and stabilised from the mid morning and has remained close to average. High relative humidity in the early hours rose slowly before sharply falling this morning moderately low. Calm winds overnight before WSW to S winds from the mid morning.
     
  21. WarwickEye2Sky

    WarwickEye2Sky One of Us

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    Yes, we had our heaviest frost of the season. My solar panels were also covered with ice!
     
  22. chunky

    chunky Old n' Crusty

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    Wow - I should have stayed :( I thought at 4am it wasn't cold enough. I guess I didn't go far enough west :(
     
  23. chunky

    chunky Old n' Crusty

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    Lots of middle and low cloud tomorrow morning. Not sure how good that will be for a colourful sunrise?
     
  24. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    A slightly warm today with the temperature rising quite steadily from the mid morning to the maximum temperature in the mid afternoon. After falling during the rest of the afternoon and early tonight the temperature became stable for an hour from 8pm, then resumed falling before rising tonight but is close to average. The dew point fell slowly from the mid morning, more quickly in the afternoon and was a bit variable and became moderately low at times in the mid afternoon. Later in the afternoon the dew point rose sharply for a brief period back to near average, and have been generally stable through to tonight, though started to rise a little late tonight.

    Moderately low relative humidity during today before rising sharply (10% in 3 minutes) later in the afternoon returning to near average for rest of the day. Light S to WSW winds from the mid morning, SSW to SSE in the late morning, S to SW in the afternoon with some W to SW winds before backing later in the afternoon to ESE to ENE, followed by mostly calm winds tonight.

    Last 24 hours:

     
  25. Sandbank

    Sandbank One of Us

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    A quite solid shower to start the day here. That and the gusty Southerly mean the whiting are once again safe. The radar looking pretty colourful actually. It would be no surprise if we surpass the 2 to 6mm forecast today. 5.5mm to 6am.
     
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  26. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Yep, we can thank the nearby surface trough just near the coast for that.
    I got woken up by the sounds of rain on the roof. Not expecting too much in the way of totals here though and much of this activity looks likely to be reasonably coastal.
     
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  27. Big T

    Big T Hard Yards

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    Gee some of you take some really good photos, always appreciated my end. Waking up on Sunshine Coast today and rain looks set in , quite light but very nice to lie in bed and watch. Might stay here a while. Happens not nearly enough.
     
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  28. Retired Weather Man

    Retired Weather Man One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Location:
    Wynnum North - Brisbane - Queensland
    WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER
    28 JUNE 2020 TIME....0820
    CURRENT TEMPERATURE...14.1C
    CURRENT HUMIDITY........91%
    CURRENT DEW POINT.......12C
    CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED..WSW 5Kph
    CURRENT VISIBILITY.....13KM
    CURRENT PRESSURE..1025.3Hpa
    CURRENT CLOUD......4/8 CuSc, 8/8 AcAs
    CURRENT WEATHER...Slight rain
    RAIN SINCE 0900 SATURDAY..1.4mm
    SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS
    YESTERDAYS MAX TEMP..........22.0C
    THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP......12.4C
    PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..+0.90C
    THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN.....11.0C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......12C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR PRESSURE....1023.6Hpa
    MAX WIND GUST PAST 24 HOURS.. SE 29Kph at 1920
    LAST 24 HOUR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER....Slight showers overnight Saturday grading to slight rain areas Sunday morning.
     
  29. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

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    Ken im struggling to see on the charts where the surface trough is located? BOM Queensland forecast does not mention any instability on the coast ? I was wondering what was causing the increase in cloud, it started yesterday a band of cloud moved up from northern NSW yesterday arvo and has hung around since, i know you mentioned od a SE surge a few pages back, but this seems to be a seperate system ?
     
  30. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Hehe I had a feeling you might ask about that @Gleno71
    It's quite a localised trough which I've circled in the above EC wind and ACCESS-C graphics (via WZ) for 7am this morning.
    In fact, ACCESS-C almost has a tiny low forming offshore in its northern end at one stage where it digs in the most. Being so localised, it's hard to spot it on standard MSLP charts, even those with smaller isobar spacings. You can see the winds being deflected by the trough and the wind convergence helping with the uplift of air (also enhanced a bit by the backing with height wind profiles). There's also some offshore CAPE in its vicinity helping with the embedded heavier convection, some of whose upper parts have then been streaming onto the coast on the NNE flow at 700hpa.
    The key thing here is, when it comes to very localised small troughs, it's better to look at the low level wind fields to see where they're being deflected and/or convergence rather than broader synoptic MSLP charts.
     
  31. Michael Hauber

    Michael Hauber One of Us

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    Interesting to look through the uppers and try and decipher it.

    250hp (9am Ec) suggests upper trough might be out to sea. Note wind speeds slowing down which can often mean air sinking into the lower levels causing stability.


    :
    500hp - hard to place a defined upper trough, particularly in the northern end, but position to the west of us much better for instability.



    600hp: don't usually look much at 600 and 700hp layers, but the divergence of the course is interesting (and the wind speeding up quite a lot). Not sure if this is so much a cause of the instability, or a reaction to the rising air.

     
  32. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

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    Thanks Ken much appreciated, yeah im just trying to learn more about when we get a SE flow and differant setups that can occur, i know last week you mentioned we had capping which kept the cloud around. I noticed yesterday the GC had a lot of cloud but Brisbane was mainly cloud free, but im presuming the hinterland might have something to do with that. And also noting that SE QLD can get wet weather from both the ocean and from inland moisture, where as Perth for example, seem to get there wet weather from once source which is a cold front, probably explains why perth is a lot drier. I wonder if that rule of thumb applies the other continents where the west is a lot more drier than the east.
     
  33. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

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    Thanks Mike , im presuming Divergence is the opposite to Convergence ?
     
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  34. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Yeah that was a solid inversion near the bottom of the midlevels that trapped the moist rising air under it rather than the capping near the surface that you often get on hot days near the coast from an afternoon seabreeze.

    Perth has a classic mediterranean type of climate with hot dry summers and cool wet winters. Most of their winter rainfall comes from cold fronts and some from the showery colder SW flow in their wake. The dryness of their climate is mainly from a combo of the prevailing dry easterly flow in summer that usually lies on the northern flank of the high pressure belt as well as the cold ocean off the west coast. A similar situation exists in other parts of the world such as California where dry land extends to the coast and most rainfall is from wintertime cold fronts.
     
  35. Michael Hauber

    Michael Hauber One of Us

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    correct
     
  36. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    Location:
    Ferny Grove, QLD
    Ferny Grove Weather
    Date: 28 Jun 2020
    Time: 9:50 AM

    Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 12.2 C
    Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 23.5 C
    Min Ground Temp: 10.1 C
    Rain to 9am today: 1.2 mm (0.3 mm since 9am)

    Temperature: 15.7 C
    Relative Humidity: 90 %
    Dew Point: 14 C
    MSL Pressure: 1024.5 hPa
    Wind Speed: kph - light air
    Wind Direction: SSW

    Present Weather: Slight showers of rain
    Visibility: 10km to 19km - Good Visibility
    Cloud Cover: 8/8
    Ground State: Ground moist

    Notes of yesterday weather - 27/6/20: A sunny day before some sc clouds in the late afternoon. The temperature fell slowly or was stable during most of the early hours before rising quickly in the early and mid morning. The temperature was stable or rose at times during the evening due to some cloud. The dew point was close to average which was stable at first in the early hours, then fell slowly later on in the early hours, then rose rose quickly during the morning. The dew point fell from the mid morning, more quickly fell in the afternoon and was a bit variable and became moderately low at times in the mid afternoon. Later in the afternoon the dew point rose sharply for a brief period back to near average, and was generally stable for the remainder of the day, though started to rise a little in the late evening. High relative humidity in the early hours rose slowly before sharply falling in the morning and became moderately low relative humidity during the day. The relative humidity rose sharply in the late afternoon (10% in 3 minutes) returning to near average for rest of the day. Calm winds early were followed by light S to WSW winds from the mid morning, SSW to SSE in the late morning, S to SW in the afternoon with some W to SW winds before backing later in the afternoon to ESE to ENE, followed by mostly calm winds in the evening.

    Today: Light showers during the late early hours and this morning from 5am. The minimum temperature occurred in the late evening of yesterday with the temperature in the early hours of today remaining above the lowest temperature during the evening of yesterday (1 C higher). Initially the temperature rose in the early hours before falling slowly during the rest of the early hours. The dew point slowly rose in the early hours and this morning close to average. The relative humidity fell a little at the start of the early hours before rising during the rest of the early hours whilst remaining close to average. High relative humidity this morning with the relative humidity falling quite slowly. Mostly calm winds early with some SSW to W winds in the first hour of the day before WSW to SSW winds developed from the mid morning.
     
  37. Sandbank

    Sandbank One of Us

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    Just 1 fisherman brave enough today. I think the word inclement is accurate.
     
  38. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Here's the latest rainfall suggestion from CFSV2 for the Week 2 to 4 period from now for Brisbane (unfortunately the raw data used for this script is precip rate in mm/sec so I've had to convert it to a mm/day equivalent.... but it's not technically daily rainfall amounts so I wouldn't treat these figures as such).

    It uses a lagged ensemble of 16 members (4 members for each of the past 4 runs). The legend in the upper right part of the graph should be self explanatory. In layman's terms, the thick green vertical bars represent where a fair number of the scenarios are clustering around while the outer thin green error bars represent its more extreme high/low scenarios.

    Being a 2 to 4 week output, the timings and amounts should NEVER be treated at face value of course but this model does seem to suggest that there might be a bit of moisture during the middle'ish part of next month.

    Will write a script to show some of its other parameters such as surface pressures, 500hpa heights, total atmospheric RH, CAPE, etc:

    [​IMG]
     
  39. Warlock_01

    Warlock_01 One of Us

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    A cool one here today in Bonogin, temp still at 15
     
  40. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Quite the contrast to here today...bright and sunny, but the wind ruins what would have been a near-perfect day as usual.
     
  41. 4107

    4107 One of Us

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    Some decent dark rain clouds out at Lowood currently
     
  42. chunky

    chunky Old n' Crusty

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    You can really see the spin back onshore from this on radar.
     
  43. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    Drizzle and light shower became less frequent from the late morning, occasional in the afternoon before clearing in the afternoon. A cool day returning to near average tonight. The dew point continued to rise during the morning and in the early afternoon close to average, then fell during the rest of the afternoon. Tonight the dew point has remained close to average and has been generally falling slowly.

    High daytime relative humidity was stable in the late morning, fell slowly in the afternoon before remaining high tonight while rising. Light SSW to SW winds in the late morning and in the afternoon with some S to SSW winds in the afternoon before backing from the mid afternoon and became S to SE in the late afternoon. Tonight winds has been mostly calm except for some WSW to SSW for a brief period at 8:30 pm.

    Last 24 hours:
     
  44. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    EC’s next upgrade is still on track to become fully operational on the 30th (UTC).

    As with most model upgrades that don’t involve a major revamp of their physics or resolution, this one also only has mainly minor changes in overall skill (including for TC’s) according to the latest scorecards from all it’s pre-operational test forecasts over the last several months..... but a few of the interesting new aspects are 1) the TC size product based on wind radius, 2) completely revamped CIN calculation which has made it a lot more realistic, and 3) work’s underway to revamp CAPE calculation as well using the same most-unstable parcel that the revamped CIN uses..... BUT this is for a future upgrade, not the upcoming one.

    The graphic above shows an example of how the much lower (more realistic) CIN in the post-upgrade version of EC compares with the previous version for a thunderstorm setup last month in Europe and the US. In this graphic, CIN in excess of 50j/kg is applied as a translucent grey mask which masks out areas of CAPE greater than 100j/kg.

    Here's a few highlights from the ECMWF's summary of changes:

    " New metrics for Tropical cyclones.
    TC “size” will be represented by radii for mean 10m wind thresholds of 18, 26 and 32 m/s (34, 50 and 64 knots) to denote the furthest distance (in metres) away from the centre of the TC at which each of the wind speed thresholds are exceeded. Each of these are computed for each of four earth-relative quadrants, i.e. in NE, SE, SW and NW, delivering a total of 12 “size metrics” for each TC at each time step.

    For Convective Inhibition (CIN) the following two changes will be implemented:
    CIN is computed with a completely revised code using virtual temperature correction;
    CIN and Convective Available Potential energy (CAPE) both refer to the same (most unstable) parcel curve.
    This will provide an estimate for CIN which is much more in line with parcel theory and forecasting practice and will improve usability for diagnosing deep moist convection.

    Please note that in the CAPE and CIN provided from the IFS the surface parcel is not considered. Instead, for all the model levels in the lowest 60 hPa mixed layer parameters are used. This is in line with the notion that the updraught in thunderstorms will probably involve a deeper layer near the surface rather than just the surface air parcel. Please note that the CAPE computation is not changed in cycle 47r1 because of the implications that such a change may have on users, e.g. for re-forecasts and for the EFI. Instead, a set of new CAPE and CIN parameters are under preparation including most-unstable and mixed-layer CAPE/CIN which all will use the virtual temperature correction. These will become available later in an IFS cycle after 47r1.

    In addition, CAPE and CIN both represent the most unstable parcel in cycle 47r1. In earlier cycles, CAPE represents the maximum value encountered when considering parcel curves departing from each model level, from the surface up to 350 hPa, whilst CIN represents the minimum encountered amongst those curves. As a result CIN and CAPE can represent different air parcels, which makes interpretation more difficult. In cycle 47r1 both CAPE and CIN refer to the same (most unstable) parcel which improves usability for diagnosing deep moist convection. "
     
    chunky, Seabreezes, TrentG and 7 others like this.
  45. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Doors are starting to play up again, soil moisture is becoming very dry again. Little if any rain in 10-day outlook. Still waiting on some sort of pattern change but certainly not seeing any signs of it yet. Really starting to wonder if or when it's ever going to happen.
     
    Seabreezes, TrentG, Sandbank and 5 others like this.
  46. Sandbank

    Sandbank One of Us

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    11mm to 6am. A strange day at the coast with slow light rain all day to about 3pm. Have a great Monday folks.
     
  47. Retired Weather Man

    Retired Weather Man One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Location:
    Wynnum North - Brisbane - Queensland
    WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER
    29 JUNE 2020 TIME....0805
    CURRENT TEMPERATURE...12.7C
    CURRENT HUMIDITY........85%
    CURRENT DEW POINT.......10C
    CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED..WSW 9Kph
    CURRENT VISIBILITY.....35KM
    CURRENT PRESSURE..1025.2Hpa
    CURRENT CLOUD......1/8 Sc
    CURRENT WEATHER...No significant weather
    RAIN SINCE 0900 SUNDAY..Trace
    SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS
    YESTERDAYS MAX TEMP..........18.1C
    THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP.......9.9C
    PAST 24 HOURS TEMP ANOMALY..-2.25C
    THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN......9.3C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT......11C
    AVERAGE 24 HOUR PRESSURE....1025.2Hpa
    MAX WIND GUST PAST 24 HOURS.. SE 20Kph at 1636
    LAST 24 HOUR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER....Slight rain Sunday morning, clearing in the afternoon. No rain recorded.
     
  48. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

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    I thought sinking air from a high encourages cooling, not warming ? Im only going by the fact that here in Aus , out heat is caused by heat low's, not high's in our summer ?
     
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  49. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Nope gleno, it’s the other way around. Sinking air in highs warms as it descends through the atmosphere. Just that the warmer air is typically found aloft above an inversion. Not only that but surface temps contribute to whether highs or lows favour a particular area (not highs or lows causing cooler or warmer surface temps). For example, heat lows don’t cause heat... it’s the intense surface heating that causes heat lows.
     
  50. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    Location:
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    Ferny Grove Weather
    Date: 29 Jun 2020
    Time: 8:45 AM

    Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 9.6 C
    Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 17.3 C
    Min Ground Temp: 8.5 C
    Rain since 9am yesterday: 1.2 mm

    Temperature: 15.8 C
    Relative Humidity: 76 %
    Dew Point: 11.6 C
    MSL Pressure: 1025.1 hPa
    Wind Speed: 7kph - light breeze
    Wind Direction: SSW

    Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
    Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
    Cloud Cover: 1/8
    Ground State: Ground moist

    Notes of yesterday weather - 28/6/20: Cloudy with cu and ns clouds. Drizzle and light showers in the early hours and during the morning, became less frequent from the late morning, occasional in the afternoon before clearing later in the afternoon. A warm morning with the temperature in the early hours of today remaining above the lowest temperature during the evening of the previous evening. Initially the temperature rose in the early hours before falling slowly during the rest of the early hours. A cool day before returning to near average in the evening. The dew point rose slowly from early continued to rise during the morning and in the early afternoon close to average, then fell during the rest of the afternoon. In the evening the dew point remained close to average while generally falling slowly. The relative humidity fell a little at the start of the early hours before rising during the rest of the early hours whilst remaining close to average. The relative humidity was high during the day became stable in the late morning, fell slowly in the afternoon before remaining high in the evening while rising. Mostly calm winds early with some SSW to W winds in the first hour of the day before WSW to SSW winds developed from the mid morning with some S to SSW winds in the afternoon before backing from the mid afternoon and became S to SE in the late afternoon. In the evening winds were mostly calm except for some WSW to SSW winds for a brief period at 8:30 pm.

    Today: The temperature was stable for 2 hours from 3am and otherwise fell in the early hours to a near average minimum temperature before warming quickly this morning. The dew point fell in the early hours close to average, which was also stable for 2 hours before rising this morning. High relative humidity in the early hours rose slowly before sharply falling back to near average this morning. Mostly calm winds today, with SSW to WSW winds before SSW to WSW winds in the last 30 minutes.