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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Sandy, Jul 8, 2010.
On Topic would be good. (Predcitions: 8th - 15th July)
And not rants (go to BBQ for that)
I will add this again as these are my predictions and I have enough IMO added.
Rain for the weekend and then rain for Tue/Wed and will be lucky to see more than a few cms IMO, maybe up to 8cms maximum if things change a little for this prediction period.
I predict that I won't be going skiing this weekend.
Saturday will be OK..warm and cloudy later...rain around dinner time
sunday wet and orrible
next week looks OK imo
don't think it will be as warm
Sunday was my only shot this weekend unfortunately... but anyway, this from BOM for Buller:
Cloud increasing. Rain at times from the late morning. Winds northerly averaging up to 65 km/h tending north to northwesterly 65 to 75 km/h during the morning.
Precis: Rain later. Windy.
Min -2 Max 4
Cloudy. A few showers, falling as snow at times on the higher peaks. Winds northwesterly averaging up to 65 km/h tending west to northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h around dawn.
Precis: A few showers. Windy.
Min 1 Max 4
It should pick up a bit from Wednesday IMO.
Going by this afternnons GFS it is all yuck. What skidown said above. No worthwhile snow this wekeend and then heaps of rain followed by 5-10cm mid next week IMO.
Not looking good for this weekend....just look at the BOM forecast for Perth to see that this system is not very 'cold' especially for early to mid July standards. Plenty of moisture that's for sure, but temps are too high. 17 for today, 15 for tomorrow then back to 18 on Saturday = not good at all. Definitely a better chance of snow for mid next week as this follow up system will be much colder, fingers crossed it delivers our first decent snowfall for the season.
IMO, NSW resorts should miss 'most' of the nasty wet stuff this weekend where as VIC resorts should see a bit more of it. NSW BOM are currently forecasting some rain for NSW overnight Saturday then some snow above 1800m for Sunday, IMO this will change in the next 24 to 48 hrs to a reduced amount of rain.
The models are not nice indeed tonight, and i cant see them changing too much.
Anyway enjoy the rain this weekend and be thankful it's not another week of clear skies, and nights not cold enough to snowmake. Some weather is better than no weather, it's only from the 2nd half of this month ill get worried.
Concur - EC: IMO says rain on Saturday, and also on Tuesday. 850 temps are better on Wednesday, but it's brief - I'm not sure there will be much in it after the cold arrives. EC has been pretty consistent on both these, although I did think the bulk of the moisture was going to go south on Saturday, - IMO that's not going to happen.
IMO the input of moisture was just too late for it to have any chance to mix with the cooler air, become more unstable and cool. Oh well better luck next time this wont be the last front this season.
Low off North Island is our problem i reckon. Sub Tropic Lows there often cause a blocking scenario- chain reaction.
Concur - <span style='font-size: 8pt'>This is not like 2006 remember</span>
Weekend looks shocking no doubt about it.
Follow up front on Wednesday, still looks very good IMO.
Weekend isn't looking too flash. 14-15 looks okay. Will need a good one afterwards.
Really IMO we should have put out 2 threads, one for the first and one for the second system as they are distinctly different.
Just to clarify for n00bs, the first front on the 11th ish is dead in terms of snow, it will be rain rain rain. The next front on the 14-15th is looking more promising at this stage, but it could still bring rain before the snow.
Yes, the 2nd front is looking better on this arvos run. IMO. Definitely snow in it at the moment.
Ive been thinking snow all along. I like GASP over GFS for this one, and it seems more realistic. GFS is pulling moisture in from nowheresland at a funny time, hopefully it comes to its senses.
Maybe this will be the front to break the chronic SDS around here.
Go over the vibe notes...i'm checking my significant weather notes
Oh yeah Verm I agree...GFS seems to be pushing that moisture a bit unrealistically
maybe its lost its love affairs with ECL's and now has NW moisture
but hang on....last week GFS was progging a massive belt of NW moisture that never came...remember
Looks exactly how it looked yesterday IMO. Potential for very good falls.
Both GFS and GASP showing the same thing. Heaps of pre frontal rain, and not much moisture once the cold air moves in.
That said in the back of my mind there's a vibe thing going on where i feel it is that time of year when conditions may turn out much better than what the forecasts are dishing up.
From the BBQ thread:
I like that opinion!
Also from the BBQ thread.
This prog chart for Monday looks like a carbon copy of the 2nd chart Sandy posted.
Could it possibly happen.....
Looking more more positive on this morning GFS, with less rain this weekend, less rain mid next week, and more snow to follow.
Interesting that ACCESS-A (11.0 km resolution) has much less predicted precipitation than ACCESS-R (37.5 km resolution).
Does MALAPS behave in a simlar fashion relative to LAPS?
Yes usually IMO.
The July 2003 fall was as a result of a frontal system coupled with a deep complex low, not a weak narrow frontal system with limited sth'ly fetch and Warm Humid NW'ly winds. If you look at the depth of the system in the first and second charts, by comparison, this system is only a behby IMO, once i reaches the SE that is. Im sure our WA counterparts would beg to differ lol.
On top of that, the 2003 system peaked in the bight and was essentially the absolue perfect conditions for such a large fall to occur. This system lacks in upper support (based on the models IMO)and is not supported by a the LWT or polar jet to any great extent(again IMO). I see rain, rain and more rain and then 10-20cm across NSW alpine areas, maybe a bit more for select Vic resorts. So its not all bad, but a fall like 2003 is simply not on the cards. More than anything however, i would like nature to prove me wrong.
id like to place my bet. 25cm gain for 1800+ at thredbo. 5cm gain for 1800- IMO
You may not recall (but I do!! ), that 2003 fall was preceded by a warm, humid northerly, along with TWO DAYS OF RAIN.
The cover at Falls creek went from over 50cm down to 38cm by the morning of Wednesday 23rd July.
It then started snowing around 10pm on the 23rd. By 6PM on the 25th(44 hours), the base went from 38cm to 141cm.
IMO the two systems are similar in some ways. As I mentioned, the key is the developing trough in central Australia. There's also jetstream cloud, and the timing of when and where it arrives is VERY important, IMO.
So what do you think Sandy? 'Could' next Wednesday's system 'potentially' impact in a similar way to the 2003 system In your opinion?
I'm really not sure. The key, as I've said is the trough formation. If it forms over central Australia, it means there is no ridge of high pressure there. That would leave the way open for a cutoff low to form in the NE Bight area IMO.
If you look at the second and third maps from my previous post (1st and 2nd in this post, see below), you can see a week cold front on the 22nd July 2003, with little prospect for good snow.
However, on the 23rd Jul 2003, you can see the trough line having developed in just ONE DAY, extending from the NT to western NSW. The trough, you might say, "sucked" the cold front north(because of the lack of high pressure), and led to the formation of the cut off low in the Bight.
What is interesting, is that we KNOW a trough will almost certainly form in central Australia around Monday.
At the moment, I think there might be a 30% chance of something similar to 2003 happening around tue/wed.
If it does, then we could be looking at 50cm + IMO, by Thursday.
Yeah very true Sandy RE timing. Im just calling it as i see it though. Theres a cold front and a trough but very little chance of a decent cold pool IMO. To me, that is the main difference. The 2003 system had a very big cold pool and excellent uppers to boot. Uppers arent too bad in this case i suppose, but ground temps will be too high for anything decent IMO. I still see the moisture as a good thing though because, as you said, there is still a small chance it could turn into something decent. If that means rain then so be it but at least it leaves the door open.
Well going by the latest model runs, in particular EC, anything could happen next week.....latest run is now showing the system moving through faster than expected and peaking Tuesday (where as it was showing to peak on Wednesday or earlier runs), and IMO, a slight upgrade....the next 24 to 48 hrs could get VERY interesting.
On the plus side, EC is still calling for the system to come through and has been consistently calling it for about the last week or so....IMO we're due for an upgrade system but I really don't want to jinx it and I'm thinking the other forum regulars are keeping quiet about it in order to not jinx it too
The models are certainly changing.
IMO for the better
Not for writing off yet
The differences between EC and GFS on this mornings update are major.
Like FourSquare menioned, EC has this system peaking far too early.
GFS certainley showing the favourable scenario with reagrds to high placement at the moment IMO. GFS has also been calling this from a long time back (extended), and its scenario hasn't changed too much. EC has been chopping and changing a bit more since the system appeared at +240hrs.
I reckon at about +120hrs, EC will settle into line and tell the real story.
Which GFS are you looking at afaict?
The 7 day WZ GFS is pretty much in line with EC but it's showing a large moisture band progged to hit before the cold stuff kicks in.....is this an older run?
bom joining the positive party with their arvo update. http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDG00073.shtml
10pnm tues chart is a classic snow chart. no other word for it.
The ACCESS-G output for Tuesday looks interesting. 20-50 mm rain/per 6 hours predicted from the NW between Tuesday 13th 0600-1200 GMT. Cold air then hits at 1800 GMT with follow-up precipitation of up to 10 mm/per 6 horus for the next 24 hours from the WSW.
Will be interesting as we get closer to the event (and can view the ACCESS-R results in 3-hourly intervals) to see what if the timing is more snow-friendly.
GFS was shooting for something like that 48hrs ago.
Still very labile IMO which is the best we can hope for at this stage
I'm not feeling as depressed anymore, IMO.
IMO, things are changing for the better and IMO, based on this afternoons BOM charts, snow-forecast, and the other thingies that I don't follow but take the word of you guys on (NOGAPSECACCESSGPSAMAGINGIES) things are looking better every couple of hours for Tuesday next week.
yep... i really have a good feeling about this IMO i am getting excited
Before everyone gets too excited, there is a significant divergence between the predicted 850 hPa temps between the ECMWF ensemble and deterministic forecast at +144 hours.
Whereas the MSLP comparisons are dead-on
I'm no expert, but to me that upper diagram suggests a small amount of spread between the ensemble members regarding the position of the 0 degree 850 hPa line at +144 hours.
Good news on the latest runs for this weekends system IMO.
GFS has the system slipping furthur SE, with not too much rain progged for the Alpine areas. Its suggesting 10mm max for Saturday. Very boderline though, and the slightly higher pressure across the alps should fend off most moisture development.
it will snow well because FG has already changed his travel plans and has gone north instead. this is all we need to know. Just make sure you all thank him on his return. He is our sacrifice to Hughie!
The 850 temps would have us sunbaking at Buller IMo
This afternoons EC Deterministic run not too good. Big high ridge and wet westerlies for the 14th.
So, WTF?!?! Is it on or is it not on?
Too far out to tell. You'll get a better idea inside 100 hours.