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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Sandy, Jul 8, 2010.
skiing or playing cards next week ? what is the opinion as about to get on the plane ?
If ur gonna get on the plane get on the plane to NZ
Stay on topic.
Strong SW feed next Tuesday and Wednesday me thinks a 20 to 30knt cold one. IMO Southern Vic resorts will do best. Baw and LM should get smashed.20 to 30cm maybe?
Theres confidence for you!
Looks good but quick atm
Confident maybe, but a system that looked less potent than this produced 10 to 20 earlier back in June at LM. Theres still plenty of precip left below the 540 after the change and LM and Baw Baw usually pick up well after a system like this goes through. BOM saying 16 and 13 for Tues and Weds in Melbourne, Weds IMO won't crack 10.
Too close to call for me. GFS still not clear on whether moisture will meet cold air in time, the moisture is certainly there. Place your bets around late Tuesday for some action (good or bad) on Wednesday morning. This could go either way from late Tuesday IMO, but this weekend looks like a dud and and I have a bad feeling that heavy rain will arrive before snow early Wednesday.
Yes it looks like we will get a good dose of prefrontal on Tuesday, but the temps should drop Tuesday evening and dumpage from then. Wednesday and most of Thursday are looking great. Snow down to about 1200m I would reckon, and plenty of it. 40cm+ I think
reckon nsw will miss the rain, bring the snow...
Ok - looked at the models seriously for the first time in 5 days.
IMO, how I see it:
Today/tomorrow - all models (GFS/LAPS/EC) show rain - not cold enough for snow.
Tuesday next week, EC/NOGAPS/GFS seem to be in general agreement - rain, possibly lots.
Wednesday: again EC/GFS in general agreement, 850mb temps down to zero, some snow (but how much ?) - it also looks to warm up quickly afterwards 850 temps to be +ve by Thursday.
My thoughts: IMO IMO IMO
GFS = Doesn't have the cold air coming through until about Lunch time on Wed and after that about 10cms
GASP = Saying the same thing with about 5-10cms afterwards
It's borderline for temps still IMO
50mm + of rain before the snow though still
A few degrees cooler would have meant EPIC snow of 50-80cms I don't realistically expect this to occur now.
The Tue/Wed system has improved over the past 24 hours, I am not convinced just yet about how much snow.
Minimum of 5cm at this stage, but could be up to 15/20cms if things change a little more.
Given the warm strong winds (AKA The Hairdryer effect) occurring today, then rain, then another hairdryer effect on Tuesday, then rain, then some snow, there is going need to be quite a big snowfall to repair the damage. Snowmaking will be VERY limited over the next week with the warmer temps. Again this is for Vic resorts, NSW will be a little colder so they have a better chance of having the snowguns on!
It looks a whole lot better this morning- Net gain for mine 10-20cm gain but could be a whole lot more if the snow gods allow.
certanly does not look like a washout is going to occur IMHO
The Tuesday/Wednesday front looks a whole lot more precipitous to me this morning. More rain before, more snow after. The potential is there..........
IMO little doubt about a whole lot of rain on Tuesday, its just a matter of how much snow to follow.
This is just too hard to call. In terms of net gain, could possibly be really good up high for Falls / Hotham if the NW is a little cooler then expected. I think we'll see more moisture post front then whats being predicted by GFS.
Trough looks interesting but, coming a little early, though I think this will mostly impact on NSW as opposed to VIC.
You are dead right afaict, this one is going to be very hard to predict....especially with the interaction of this trough.....timing timing timing!
IMO, another slight upgrade going by EC and latest update from BOM for their 4 day (which is essentially going off EC). Latest run seems to indicate less pre-frontal IMO and Wednesday looking real good with widespread, heavy snow.
If the low can push a bit further North a bit earlier than prog'd we're in the money
IMO this afternoon's GFS run is better than this morning for Wednesday.
Tuesday is going to be wet, but we should get some reasonable falls on Wednesday to compensate. NOGAPS is pretty much in line with this.
EC is still marginal on temperatures on Wednesday, IMO.
Forecast for Wednesday
Snow with possible blizzards. Strong to gale force westerly winds.
Thredbo Top Station Snow. Min: -1 Max: 0
Bom seems upbeat with their arvo update. Finger crossed for some upgrades.
Blizzard with westerlies... awesome! Fill in the top of the mountain
Laps and MLaps going from between 10mm to 20/25mm of rain tonight.
still dont like the 850 temps though.
It's all touch and go IMO
any chance for a follow up front after the wednesday
New commentary from WeatherZorrrne:
WZ going for 20 - 40cm.
think theres is a good chance that a front will come through , eeeventually
deleted, off topic
That's in another thread, predictions 19-21 July
I can't see next weeks setup being anything but a gain. There is going to be sheet loads of rain before it snows, but by that time natural base below 1900m will be just about nothing so that's not big deal. The 30cm following will be very good for filling in the off piste terrain though.
I make it 50mm of rain tuesday, 20cm snow on wednesday and then 10-15cm on thursday.
Yeh fair point, you can't really loose with 20cm+ of snow after a shiteload of rain when there is nothing for the rain to wash away in the first place!
I'm hopeful now Wednesday will produce very nicely. Putting aside the detailed elements of the models which paint a fairly line ball scenario in terms of when the cold arrives relative to the moisture, its just the movement/development of the system on the synoptics is exactly what I've associated with heavy snowfalls in the past. There does not seem to be any of that side slipping to the south we've seen so often in recent years, just a good strong front barreling into a prefrontal rainband.
On the money Bluey. Nothing ventured nothing gained....
No real base at the moment so wash away the so called start and lets go...... 50-100mm of rain before 30cm of snow is a start in the right direction.. IMO
Looks to be moving pretty quick on this mornings runs.
Tues Rain then 15-20 is my call atm.
hmmmmmm looking very very nice
Yeh wednesday is looking great IMO, slightly better for NSW from what I can gather - would be perfect as I am arriving there on the friday.
30+ cm tuesday night
then 15 cm wednesday
45 cm all up
hope your right
Perisher are hoping for comparative year with 1991 that started out simlar and finished at 281cm snow depth. This system would really need to deliver the goods this week to make it happen.
Models and charts look good but the pre-frontal on Tuesday will not be pleasant. Should be 20cm in this one.
Actually im gonna change my forcast for this on
IMO the could be a bit more than 15 cm on wednesday after looking a the charts on a 2nd look
possibly 25 cm on wednesday
now 55 all up if this system comes over perfect
BOM are now giving a "5" for the quantitative rainfall for Tuesday from 9am.
Latest GFS charts suggest colder air arrving earlier, and now up to 30cm of snow, with the 5400 line crossing about midnight Tuesday.
mLAPS and GASP have very little moisture predicted IMO.
All the models have fallen into line with cold temps.
Just pray GFS(the moisture model) gets it right this time.
GASP never predicts moisture right.
Its a classic setup, NW to SW'ly, with pressure progged to be down to 1006hPa. GFS has the moisture spot on IMO.
any chance of snow in oberon plateau for wed
Still looks like loads of prefrontal, IMO
Perhaps not so bad, as the little base we had all is all gone as of this weekend.
It's certainly not that positive when you look at the charts in 6 hr increments. Most of the moisture on tuesday will be rain. But i still think we'll get about 30cm on tuesday/wednesday.
Yes, I agree that Wednesday looks very good, IMO
Lets hope it hangs together until then.
35% rain, 65% snow (on the tad optimisitc side) is what i'm thinking. Still, a very fine line in terms of timing.
Mt Buller 5-15cms
NSW resorts 10-20cms
Could still go either way. into an EPIC dump or even more rain, we are relying on temps to drop in time for the moisture.