New Predictions: 8th - 15th July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Sandy, Jul 8, 2010.

  1. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 1999
    Messages:
    37,016
    Likes Received:
    323
    Yep my above prediction is based on what I think will happen..

    However a degree change either way would mean 5-55 cms! IMO

    We'll find out Thursday..
     
    #101 skiflat, Jul 11, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,816
    Likes Received:
    51,062
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    IMO GFS predicts 2 distinct bands of precipitation; 9pm Tuesday - 9am Wednesday - rain, 3pm Wednedsay, 3am Thursday, snow.
     
  3. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 1999
    Messages:
    37,016
    Likes Received:
    323
    ^^ Concur AGAIN!

    It's all about the temps!! IMO
     
  4. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,108
    Likes Received:
    291
    Location:
    Edithvale VIC
    IMO i would disagree and say GFS is suggesting the first band 5pm Tues to about 2am Wednesday. Rain tending to snow about midnight.

    Dont forget the Orographic lift effect also, I beleive we will see a LOT of moisture development from it Wednesday morning, from the moist westerly-ish feed.
    Sort of shown on the 10pm Tues charts to 4am Wed charts on Weatherzone. Not suprising really, look at how low the pressure is forecast to be.
     
    #104 Stratus, Jul 11, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  5. pezza

    pezza First Runs

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2010
    Messages:
    296
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    melbourne
    IMO i honestly think this and the next systems are season starters. i think this system will surprise us all and drop a fair amount of snow based on BOM charts.
     
  6. h2oskier

    h2oskier One of Us

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2008
    Messages:
    2,564
    Likes Received:
    25
    Location:
    vic
    something to remember... Many of our big dumps occur with a LOT of pre frontal r*%n. Things are looking good at this stage for 20cm+ IMO. Long overdue.
     
  7. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2003
    Messages:
    16,852
    Likes Received:
    8,537
    Location:
    melbourne
    4 day chart pressures for 10pm tuesday are looking very noice
     
  8. DHS

    DHS Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 9, 2010
    Messages:
    312
    Likes Received:
    10
    Location:
    South West Vic.
    I'll stick with my original prediction of 40cm+
     
  9. Bilza_Skis

    Bilza_Skis First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2010
    Messages:
    168
    Likes Received:
    0
    i had a look at the charts just then
    IMO i reckon 10 - 15 mm of prefrontal rain
    then start snowing at 11 pm tuesday night
    40+ cm is very possible
     
  10. Squidly

    Squidly One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2004
    Messages:
    1,963
    Likes Received:
    42
    Location:
    TAS
    Temps don't seem cold enough this week for widespread snow IMO, perhaps only above a certain level.
     
  11. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,108
    Likes Received:
    291
    Location:
    Edithvale VIC
    Squidly - Snow level will drop down to about 1200m once the cold air hits. Will be plenty cold enough for snow for at all resorts.
     
  12. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

    Joined:
    May 4, 1999
    Messages:
    3,376
    Likes Received:
    1,121
    Location:
    vic
    I hope the cold air does transpire, the high no. of days in Melb predicted to reach 15 or 16 max worry me but I guess a 13 on Wednesday could coincide with the cold sump in the hills.

    Optimistically, from memory some of the best NW dumps have coincided with sunny, windy, relatively mild weather in Melbourne - almost a chinook effect.
     
  13. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,108
    Likes Received:
    291
    Location:
    Edithvale VIC
    I dont see how Melbourne weather is relevant at all? There is no direct correlation between Melbournes temps and the ski resorts.
     
  14. toddler

    toddler Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 16, 2009
    Messages:
    70
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Jindabyne,Dolls Pt
    Nice little trough in the wake of the front sometime wednesday.That should mean lots of the white stuff,it should fill in all the holes,rocks and gullies.Im calling 40++.Yi ha.
     
  15. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,108
    Likes Received:
    291
    Location:
    Edithvale VIC
    This mornings charts still good. EC and GFS seem to have come bascially in line IMO now.
     
  16. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,108
    Likes Received:
    291
    Location:
    Edithvale VIC
    Blizzard conditions likely on Wednesday too.
     
  17. Neslot

    Neslot One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2002
    Messages:
    1,840
    Likes Received:
    68
    Location:
    Sydney, AUS, NSW
    Frog likes it, he's calling 20-35CM on Wednesday... Let's hope it comes off!
     
  18. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    71,606
    Likes Received:
    26,071
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
    True but having said that i dont like Melbourne to have max's over 14C if there is a front around.
     
    #118 Vermillion, Jul 12, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  19. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 12, 2000
    Messages:
    76,128
    Likes Received:
    40,809
    Location:
    Les Hautes Montagnes
    Nostalgia perhaps? Back when I was a kid that's all we pretty much had to predict snowfall - 12 and raining in Melbourne meant snow - 13 and raining was still OK, 14 was mostly rain at Buller unless is was blowing from the south.
     
    #119 CarveMan, Jul 12, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  20. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    71,606
    Likes Received:
    26,071
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
    snaparooooo.

    Yes you are right CM lower than 12C in Melbourne to me meant snow to the bottom of the runs at Buller. Of course this does not always apply but as a general guide. Much like i prefer Mt William to be below 4C for snow.
     
  21. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    21,953
    Likes Received:
    14,460
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW
    GFS is the most positive of what i can see. GASP, LAPS and Meso-LAPS don't show much happening after the rain. GFS has nice colours after the cold air.
     
  22. PolePlant

    PolePlant Guest

    Same in our house.
    That and ring API lodge was only reports around.
    No snow reports on TV till about the 80's I think
     
    #122 PolePlant, Jul 12, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  23. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    64,163
    Likes Received:
    11,508
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    I've been off line since Friday. (I'm now in a nice cold Melbourne, and not a humid, hot Tokyo!!!)

    Still looks promising IMO.
     
    #123 Sandy, Jul 12, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  24. Miffy

    Miffy Addicted

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2009
    Messages:
    383
    Likes Received:
    188
    Location:
    Southern Highlands
    [​IMG]

    Snow Forecast looks good, GFS for Wednesday is looking damn sweet IMO
    Im going for 30cm, there is basically no natural base to wash away so we'll be back to square one but hopefully this is followed up by more falls in the coming weeks [​IMG]
     
    #124 Miffy, Jul 12, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,816
    Likes Received:
    51,062
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    A little hard to tell with LAPS - I'd like to see this afternoons runs before commenting too much, but IMO LAPS indicates that the system will favour NSW, - it still seems to indicate 20 to 30cm or more north of the border, while Victorian alps might get as little as 10 to 15cm.
    Looking at the 9am GFS run, IMO, before the cold air comes through there's in the region of 25 (Vic) to 50 (NSW) mm of rain, followed by a similar amount of (hopefully) snow later on Wednesday.
     
    #125 Claude Cat, Jul 12, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  26. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    5,830
    Likes Received:
    3,127
    Location:
    Wollongong
    Still a very tough one to call, all the models are still a little unsure.....I agree with you CC wait for this arvo's runs and see.

    This system is starting to remind me of Late August 2005 dump where we saw a solid day of rain before the cold air injection hit in the early hours of the morning and then it puked for the rest of teh day - end result was around a 30cm dump (at Hotham in particular as I was there and it was EPIC!)

    As The Frog has already suggested in his long range update this morning, I tend to agree that this week will be just the start of better things to come and we'll see more systems and fronts stack up and deliver the goods in the coming weeks....about frickin' time eh!
     
  27. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,288
    Likes Received:
    13,646
    Based on the ACCESS-R/A runs this morning I call fizzer IMO. Rain rain rain with a little bit of snow.

    ACCESS-A doesn't predict 850 hPa <= 0 degrees until Tuesday 16:00 GMT. Until this point there is lots of predicted precipitation. Beyond this point..there is not much left.

    ACCESS-R basically shows the same pattern. Pure Westerlies follow the initial front. There is no synoptic prediction of a deep low forming.

    EDIT : Same with ECMWF. Predicts a quickly moving front moving into a Westerly airstream once the initial moisture has passed.
     
  28. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2002
    Messages:
    25,206
    Likes Received:
    8,855

    as I posted earlier PG...I'm hoping for the GFS moisture model to have a breakout win, because the BOM models have IMO fairly consistently lacked moisture post cold air arrival over the past 48 hrs.
    Thursday may be a little surprise though.
     
    #128 MisterMxyzptlk, Jul 12, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  29. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    71,606
    Likes Received:
    26,071
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
    Looks like we have a showdown then. BOM models vs. GFS.
     
  30. PolePlant

    PolePlant Guest

    IMO
    Radar and Synoptic looks like another pineapple express on the way from central Aus.
    The last cold front that slipped south had a warm to ocluded front at the centre of the trough.
    The next one is showing the same so no reason why it wont do the same as last and slip south after hitting WA.
    Based on betting odds
    Looks like we will get a sprinkle of snow if we are lucky after another blow and rinse.
    With a big high to follow.

    Even if we got a big dump with the big high coming in behind it doesnt look like snowing soon after that so any would need to be taken advantage of in the ensuing few days before it turns to snot with no base.
    A short lived thrill if we are lucky but no ongoing accumulation.
     
  31. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,288
    Likes Received:
    13,646
    IMO whether or not the moisture arrives or not is neither here nor there. It is the difference between a 10 cm or a 20 cm dump.

    For a 40cm+ 'mega' dump IMO you need a big low pressure system forming somewhere...and I just don't see it happening.

    In other words - even if ACCESS is underpredicting moisture we still aren't going to get a big dump because the synoptic predictions suggests a fast moving westerly flow with a big high pressure system following it.
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,816
    Likes Received:
    51,062
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Which is what EC has been saying all along, IMO.
    We'll have a better idea later this afternoon. I want to have a look at the sat pictures too.
     
  33. Hobber

    Hobber A Local

    Joined:
    May 22, 2002
    Messages:
    13,235
    Likes Received:
    59
    Location:
    Sydney
    IMO the BoM forecasts have been depressingly accurate so far this season... hopefully the accuracy holds...
     
  34. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 28, 2009
    Messages:
    54
    Likes Received:
    11
    i feel thursday will deliver much colder winds but dont know about moisture. snow level may drop under 1000metres.
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,816
    Likes Received:
    51,062
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    First of the afternoon model runs is through, LAPS seems to be consistent with good moisture levels. The system is a very fast one, the cold air over the alps is gone with 24 hours, IMO.
    Still very hard to determine how much moisture will fall as snow vs. rain.
     
  36. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    21,953
    Likes Received:
    14,460
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW
    Latest LAPS is pretty ordinary. Showing 50mm of rain followed by 10cm snow. But i'm sticking with GFS for now.
     
  37. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2000
    Messages:
    4,155
    Likes Received:
    185
    Location:
    Kings-bloody-wood, NSW, Australia
    I can't see this system delivering much IMO.
    There seems to be a strong NW stream across the central/eastern part of the continent, which has seen literally all the promising systems of this season take a hard SE course around the SA/VIC border - this stream is quite apparent on the sat loops. Combine this with what I feel is a system peaking over WA and it just doesn't fill me with joy.

    I want to be disproven, believe me, cause currently, this season sucks.
     
  38. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 1999
    Messages:
    37,016
    Likes Received:
    323
    Looking at LAPS and the 3pm GFS run..

    Still sticking by

    Bucket loads of rain before hand, but there is no natural to wash away so it doesn't matter really.

    Mt Buller 5-15cms
    NSW resorts 10-20cms

    IMO

    Not a huge chance of much more than this IMO

    Season starter = Nope

    IMO
     
  39. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

    Joined:
    Dec 19, 2008
    Messages:
    2,726
    Likes Received:
    242
    Location:
    Sydney
    IMO the best predicton in the past few hours is the cat's. There are so many variables that it is so difficult to call at this juncture. At the positive end of the spectrum we have the Dark Lord who is confident of some goodness whilst others at the other end indeed see the potentially nasty scenario that could eventuate.

    As these things go, the truth is usually between and going by the law of averages we need something reasonable to stick since we have already had so many missed systems and rain events.
     
  40. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    71,606
    Likes Received:
    26,071
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
    Hence why i am keeping quiet.
     
  41. shaunstoddart

    shaunstoddart First Runs

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2009
    Messages:
    191
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne Vic
    It appears there is now more prefrontal moisture. Its looking worse than it did 2 days ago. [​IMG]
     
    #141 shaunstoddart, Jul 12, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  42. DHS

    DHS Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 9, 2010
    Messages:
    312
    Likes Received:
    10
    Location:
    South West Vic.
    I like it when the charts downgrade 48 hrs out. I would think a nice upgrade tomorrow and away we go. Sat looks pretty good to me, high has weakened and is moving. Let the good times roll.
    Still say 40cm+
     
  43. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

    Joined:
    Dec 19, 2008
    Messages:
    2,726
    Likes Received:
    242
    Location:
    Sydney
    I'm willing to sacrifice 20cm of machine snow for a reasonable net gain on this system otherwise this season will begin to fizz as the sands keep running through the hourglass of our short season window.
    The best hope going is that we get a pleasant surprise and the loss from the prefrontal is reversed with a net gain (if the timing of moisture + cold air works out Tuesday night).

    Cross everything you can cross my son
     
  44. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 12, 2000
    Messages:
    76,128
    Likes Received:
    40,809
    Location:
    Les Hautes Montagnes
    The rain doesn't fuss me - check my blog for a pic from today - there is stuff all natural snow to melt anyway, and manmade snow is pretty resilient.
     
  45. roystein

    roystein Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2010
    Messages:
    60
    Likes Received:
    0
    IMO the (potentiaL) lack of moisture is only indicated by GASP. look at the bigger picture in terms of precipitation so far this past 6 months, and more specifically moisture infeed from NW WA over late autumn early winter. I believe moisture will not be a problem. the charts all indicate a snow bearing low and associated cold front. the satellite again shows an infeed of moisture from NW WA over the past 24 hours.

    season starter IMO.
     
  46. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 1999
    Messages:
    37,016
    Likes Received:
    323
    Yep moisture is gonna be there very nice as rain IMO

    The issue is when we change from the NW to Northerly and then finally the SWest feed.

    That is where the moisture appears to be lacking, but at the same time the pressure is relatively low!

    It's all about temps and elevation !
     
  47. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    5,830
    Likes Received:
    3,127
    Location:
    Wollongong
    Wow, this is going to be real interesting....I'd say it's about 50/50 based on the posts in this thread.

    BOM chart update came out about an hour ago and they are still on board, in fact their forecasts have not changed a lot for the last couple of days.....I'm backing them. IMO It's make or break time and going on previously similar seasons they have mostly kicked off around this period in mid July.
     
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,816
    Likes Received:
    51,062
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    IMO 3pm GFS, is reasonably consistent with previous runs. Perhaps a slight downgrade of moisture post cold air.
     
  49. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 1999
    Messages:
    37,016
    Likes Received:
    323
    As I normally say, ^^ Concur...

    For this system, I am just going to sit back til Thursday now as we are all pouring/reading/hoping way too much into the charts for what I think is quite a difficult system to pick.

    I'll still with my predictions and see how much hat I have to eat, hopefully a whole large hat [​IMG]

    IMO
     
    #149 skiflat, Jul 12, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,816
    Likes Received:
    51,062
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    It's very difficult system to predict, IMO, yes it will most likely be very wet initially, but how much snow afterwards is difficult to guess.