1. SPECIAL NOTE TO NEW REGISTRATIONS

    If you recently registered and have not received a confirmation email - please check your 'Spam or Junk' folders. Especially if your email is Hotmail. More help with confirmation issues

    NOTE: This notice may be closed.

    Dismiss Notice

New Predictions: 8th - 15th July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Sandy, Jul 8, 2010.

  1. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    5,653
    Likes Received:
    2,936
    Location:
    Wollongong
    And with the gale force NW/W/SW winds it will be hard to get an accurate total amount too.
     
  2. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,096
    Likes Received:
    287
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Good point actually ^.

    Ok latest GFS out.

    Cold air still progged to come through midnight Tuesday, however at 850temps, cold air doesn't arrive till Wednesday morning...this is a little concerning. Looks like MORE moisture pre-front (up to 30mm), and a little less moisture post front (25mm).

    Weak high moving in fast so most snow showers will be drying up around Thursday evening.

    So not as good as yesterdays update, about 50:50 rain:snow IMO. Still good falls to be had once it gets cold enough though.
     
  3. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,288
    Likes Received:
    13,636
    Victorian BoM has gone from 'Blizzards / Snow' on Tuesday / Wednesday to 'Snow / Chance of snow'.

    Yibbedah Yibbedah..that's all folks for this front (in Victoria at least).
     
  4. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    21,345
    Likes Received:
    13,458
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW
    Todays GFS is a carbon copy of yesterdays and this morning. The only thing thats changed is the 24 hrs charts have shifted 12 hrs. Yesterdays charts were showing more colour behind the 540 line, but if you broke it down you could see that most of the colour got there before the 540 line did.

    You must remember that the preceipitation shown is that which has accumulated over the 24 hr period (starting from T=0hr). But the 540 line changes every time increment of the model.
     
    #154 Snow Blowey, Jul 12, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  5. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,096
    Likes Received:
    287
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Err no its not. Its quite different from yesterdays 4pm update, which is what I based my comparison on.
     
    #155 Stratus, Jul 12, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  6. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2003
    Messages:
    965
    Likes Received:
    140
    Location:
    Northern Beaches, Sydney
    I hope the BOM charts are what we get as it look around 30/70 rain/snow.
    The feed for this system seems to be more South-westerly than the last couple so hopefully we have some cooler air ahead of the front with a bit less rain. The fact that it will also hit at night will also be helpful.
    I am still thinking only 20cm for NSW and hoping for allot more.
     
  7. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    21,345
    Likes Received:
    13,458
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW
    The 10am wednesday chart is an exact copy as one of the charts from this mornings and yesterdays forecast. It may have shifted forward 3-6hrs though. Unless you looked at every 3 hr increment yesterday and this morning you wouldn't have seen it.

    Thats why it's very worthwhile looking at each time increment around the critical periods, especially for timing of cold air and precipitation.
     
  8. Dynafan

    Dynafan First Runs

    Joined:
    May 8, 2010
    Messages:
    35
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Newcastle N.S.W.
    Well if you have nothing - you have nothing to lose . We have VERY little on the ground . We don't have much to lose . Such is life as an Aussie skier in Oz . It's now roll the dice time . The next 48hrs WILL IMO give us more than we have ON THE GROUND , right now . How MUCH we do actually get will be the season STARTER .
    Somehow a 2 metre season seems an impossible dream right now . To my way of thinking it all depends on how fast TOMORROW we get to freezing point , whilst the moisture IS there . This will determine how much ON THE GROUND we get from this system . The sooner it actually GETS to freezing TOMORROW will determine the overall value of the system .
     
  9. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,096
    Likes Received:
    287
    Location:
    Melbourne
    I do realise that. The fact is, the 4am Wednesday 14th chart issued today is different from the 4am Wednesday 14th chart issued yesterday. Similar but different. Certainley not a carbon copy. But if you can show me the 4am Wednesday chart issued yesterday, I would be happy to be proved wrong. [​IMG]
     
    #159 Stratus, Jul 12, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  10. Mattoman

    Mattoman Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2008
    Messages:
    94
    Likes Received:
    15
    The weatherzone chart seems to show slightly less moisture around the mountains for Tuesday then it previously did, still enough to do some damage to what is currently there im guessing. IMO Wednesday will deliver a nice amount of snow 15 - 25cm for NSW and possibly another 5cm by the end of Thursday. So hopefully there will be some nice snow by Friday and the weekend.
     
  11. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,297
    Likes Received:
    9,743
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    My thoughts after looking at all models......
    NSW to get more rain than vic, maybe +20 to 30mm.
    Pre-frontal rain maybe less in Vic than expected.
    Turning to snow tues about 9pm- post first front.
    Total precip to be around a 50/50 mix in vic resorts. 25mm-25cm (40ish leeward)
    NSW 60/40ish at 50mm-30cm
    Accumulation will seem average but leeward may do well.
    Turning glug on thurs as temps rise so no dry stuff out back post event.
    Finally enough for out of resorts I reckon.
    All in my opinion of course...
     
  12. Miffy

    Miffy Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2009
    Messages:
    382
    Likes Received:
    187
    Location:
    Southern Highlands
    IMO- BOM are on drugs, forecasting snow to 1400m lowering to 1200m during tuesday and mostly sunny for wednesday??? No sign of rain on their NSW forecast at all! If that comes off ill eat my keyboard
     
  13. wangster

    wangster A Local

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2008
    Messages:
    5,832
    Likes Received:
    301
    NSW Snowy Mountains BOM forecast as at this afternoon:

    [​IMG]
     
    #163 wangster, Jul 12, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  14. DHS

    DHS Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 9, 2010
    Messages:
    312
    Likes Received:
    10
    Location:
    South West Vic.
    In your opinion [​IMG]
    In my opinion, it is still on and will be huge
     
    #164 DHS, Jul 12, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  15. Bilza_Skis

    Bilza_Skis First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2010
    Messages:
    168
    Likes Received:
    0
    looking at the latest GFS
    IMO i reckon 20 mm of prefrontal
    then 30+ cm wednesday to 1300
     
  16. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2003
    Messages:
    965
    Likes Received:
    140
    Location:
    Northern Beaches, Sydney
    #166 Outlooker, Jul 12, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  17. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,608
    Location:
    wollongong
    Interesting system...i've been out of the loop for a few days...
    seems to be ebbing and flowing between good and bad.
    gotta say that I agree with the thunderstorm forecast...it just felt like that in the mountains today...like something big was coming...and that was without seeing any forecasts
     
  18. Ralph_implement

    Ralph_implement A Local

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2009
    Messages:
    8,474
    Likes Received:
    5,186
    Your caps lock is broken....IMO
     
    #168 Ralph_implement, Jul 12, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  19. Matt.D

    Matt.D Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Feb 13, 2003
    Messages:
    559
    Likes Received:
    42
    Location:
    Millgrove
    IMO in Vic were gonna get 30mm - 50mm of rain and 15cm of snow at Buller, Hotham & Falls, Lake Mountain & Baw Baw to pick up 20cm behind the front after heaps of rain.
    NSW 40mm - 60mm of rain and 15cm to 20cms of snow. I think the trough ahead of the front will cause more rain further north and particularly on north facing slopes. I'm not too worried how much rain we get as there's next to no natural snow left now.
     
  20. walrusballs

    walrusballs Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2010
    Messages:
    64
    Likes Received:
    17
    Does IMO mean In My Opinion???
     
  21. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,297
    Likes Received:
    9,743
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Yes. We have to use it. Its policed very heavily. IMO
     
    #171 The Plowking, Jul 12, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  22. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2002
    Messages:
    24,945
    Likes Received:
    8,583
    I'm interested in that follow up burst of moisture overnight Wednesday through Thursday...I'm liking the little parting gift on offer IMO
    GFS IMO is showing 6-7x 6 hour blocks where the 5440-5400 is over the NSW resorts and precipitation rates averaging @30mm-40mm
    Should IMO save 2010 from the ignominy of a 5cm Spencers Creek reading
     
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,796
    Likes Received:
    49,078
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Stay on topic.
    IMO
     
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,796
    Likes Received:
    49,078
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    9pm GFS has bumped up the precipitation [​IMG]
    But, IMO, most of it is pre-cold change. .
     
    #174 Claude Cat, Jul 12, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  25. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    21,345
    Likes Received:
    13,458
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW
    Meso Laps also going for big numbers in central west nsw and snowies. Hopefully the rain in the central west comes off. Would do wonders for the dams on the Macquarie and Lachlan Rivers. Both currently very low.
     
  26. Louie

    Louie A Local

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 1999
    Messages:
    9,119
    Likes Received:
    1,535
    Location:
    NSW
    bloody hell - BOM are now sayinhg 1-1.5m (yes - metres) of snow for wed-thursday.

    ( i personally think they are injecting LSD and a myriad other hasucinogens - IMO)

    I have never seen a "6" on the precipitation scale - and even a 4 is very rare.


    http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/snowy.shtml

    <div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header"> Code:</div><div class="ubbcode-body ubbcode-pre" style="height: 150px;"><pre>
    Forecast for Tuesday
    Rain developing through the middle of the day, becoming heavy late afternoon and
    overnight. Strengthening northwesterly winds, reaching gale force strength late
    in the day and overnight.
    UV Alert:
    Thredbo Top Station Rain developing, windy. Max: 4
    Perisher Valley Rain developing, windy. Max: 7
    Cabramurra Rain developing, windy. Max: 8

    chance of snow 1500 m 1900 m
    Day (6 am/6 pm) 0 % 2 %
    Night (6 pm/6 am) 95 % 95 %

    Forecast for Wednesday
    Snowfalls increasing through the day with blizzard conditions developing. Strong
    to gale force westerly winds.
    Thredbo Top Station Snow, blizzard. Min: -2 Max: -2

    chance of snow 1500 m 1900 m
    Day (6 am/6 pm) 95 % 95 %
    Night (6 pm/6 am) 95 % 95 %

    Forecast for Thursday
    Snow showers becoming isolated, during the morning and clearing during the
    afternoon. Moderating southwesterly winds.
    Thredbo Top Station Snow showers clearing. Min: -4 Max: -1

    Forecast for Friday
    Fine and sunny with southwest winds.
    Thredbo Top Station Fine and sunny. Min: -7 Max: 1

    Snow Depth Observations Depth (cm)
    Spencers Creek (1830 m - out from Charlotte Pass) 24.1 cm
    Deep Creek (1620 m - SW of Cabramurra)) 1.6 cm
    Three Mile Dam (1460 m SW of Kiandra) 0 cm
    Source: Snowy Hydro, updated weekly, Last updated: 8 July 2010
    Quantitative rainfall Cabramurra Perisher Valley
    Today (9 am/3 pm) 0 0
    Tonight (3 pm/9 am) 0 0
    Wednesday (24 h from 9 am) 6 6
    Thursday (24 h from 9 am) 4 4

    Range 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
    Precipitation (mm) &lt;1 1-5 6-10 11-20 21-40 41-80 &gt;80
    The next routine forecast will be issued at 4:30 pm EST Tuesday
    </pre></div></div>
     
    #176 Louie, Jul 13, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  27. snow king

    snow king First Runs

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2007
    Messages:
    1,629
    Likes Received:
    0
    they have nothing for today or tonight though. IMO i think they have made a slight typo....
     
  28. Eskimoo

    Eskimoo First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2010
    Messages:
    35
    Likes Received:
    0
    yeh definitely typo. gave me a freaking heart attack it did!
     
  29. choc

    choc One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2004
    Messages:
    5,391
    Likes Received:
    54
    Yeah, they've been getting those precip values on the wrong line for a few weeks.
     
  30. Hobber

    Hobber A Local

    Joined:
    May 22, 2002
    Messages:
    13,235
    Likes Received:
    59
    Location:
    Sydney
    Maybe they meant 6mm and 4mm
     
  31. snowpyro

    snowpyro Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Apr 30, 2009
    Messages:
    121
    Likes Received:
    21
    no...
     
    #181 snowpyro, Jul 13, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  32. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    21,345
    Likes Received:
    13,458
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW
    All looks pretty legit to me. Possibly the 6 should be for Tuesday (3pm to 9am wednesday) and the 4 for 24 hrs from 9am wednesday. Saying 80mm+ of rain followed by 20-40cm of snow once the cold front comes through.

    Look at the satellite picture and you can see where the numbers are coming from. That big cloud mass moving in is just about all heavy rain and storms. If a line of storms hit the right spot we could see more than 100mm of rain in short time.
     
  33. warrie

    warrie Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2008
    Messages:
    416
    Likes Received:
    80
    Location:
    Sydney
    Both the sat photo and the ground view from Jindy look pretty ugly in terms of rainfall this arvo. When it starts getting heavy will determine how spoiled your day is.And tomorrows blizzards won't be much fun either. But a 6 by the BoM will mean smiles by Thursday... W
     
  34. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    21,345
    Likes Received:
    13,458
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW
    The BOM's 6 won't be bringing smiles - unless you are into white water rafting!
     
  35. toddles

    toddles Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2003
    Messages:
    557
    Likes Received:
    1
    Location:
    FTG
    I am sick of all the pessimism on this forum, constant complaining about the pressure being too high, the cold air coming too late, no moisture left and what not. IMO, I dont think pressure changes anything. If its cold and there is precipatation, it will fall as snow, its as simple as that.
     
  36. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    70,827
    Likes Received:
    25,117
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
    *face palm*

    Anyway, it's going to be wet, and there will be more rain in the mountains than forecast for the general areas (orographic lift). Not good today, tomorrow could be better.
     
  37. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    63,509
    Likes Received:
    10,671
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    Actually, it does.....

    I took records for Hotham from 1984 - 1996, and surface pressure has a LOT to do with snow. And that is not IMO.

    For example, from those records, I can show that if the temperature is say, -2 and the location for the cold front & trough is correct, and the sea level pressure hits 996hP, there will always be more snow than if the pressure is 1010hP. (between July and mid September)
     
    #187 Sandy, Jul 13, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  38. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

    Joined:
    Dec 19, 2008
    Messages:
    2,726
    Likes Received:
    242
    Location:
    Sydney
    That's just the reality of what is happening today Toddles in terms of models (that rhymed - cool). Let's just hope we are rewarded tomorrow
     
  39. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2006
    Messages:
    21,942
    Likes Received:
    1,234
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Going to be lots of prefrontal, I don't think I'll look at the cams until Thur, but then everything should be nice and white [​IMG]
     
    #189 smitty484, Jul 13, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  40. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2004
    Messages:
    40,801
    Likes Received:
    8,433
    Location:
    Narbethong, Vic
    Joises! I admit to knowing nuffin bout wevver, but even I can see why pressure is so important.
     
  41. Squidly

    Squidly One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2004
    Messages:
    1,963
    Likes Received:
    42
    Location:
    TAS
    High pressure means suppression of clouds, lower pressure means more cloud development particularly height, you will never get much snow from a thin layer of cloud.
     
  42. gusso

    gusso Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 26, 2010
    Messages:
    26
    Likes Received:
    3
    Can someone tell me what this means? sorry im a noobie.
    Range 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
    Precipitation (mm) &lt;1 1-5 6-10 11-20 21-40 41-80 &gt;80

     
  43. Louie

    Louie A Local

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 1999
    Messages:
    9,119
    Likes Received:
    1,535
    Location:
    NSW
    Bingo. 100% correct. Pressure is a good indicator of where there is cold air and moisture but is not a pre-requisite for snow.

    (a x cold) + (b x wet ) = Y cm snow.

    (a x cold) + (b x wet ) + high pressure = Y cm snow.

    (a x cold) + (b x wet ) + low pressure = Y cm snow.


    IMO.
     
    #193 Louie, Jul 13, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  44. Charlie

    Charlie Still the most depraved poster here Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2002
    Messages:
    24,301
    Likes Received:
    7,945
    Location:
    Gippsland
    Without sorrow1
    [​IMG]
    Edit:
    Don't hit me Sandy, it's still on topic!
     
    #194 Charlie, Jul 13, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  45. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2006
    Messages:
    21,942
    Likes Received:
    1,234
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Where is the moisture going to come from with higher pressure?
     
  46. Louie

    Louie A Local

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 1999
    Messages:
    9,119
    Likes Received:
    1,535
    Location:
    NSW
    the number "6" correlates to "&gt;80mm" precipitation in the indicated time period
     
  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,796
    Likes Received:
    49,078
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Stay on topic. Predictions for this period only.
     
  48. Bato

    Bato One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2005
    Messages:
    3,175
    Likes Received:
    661
    Location:
    Davos/Jindabyne/Brunswick Heads
    IMO it looks like 50mm+ of rain starting mid to late afternoon, turning to snow by 2-3am Wednesday morn, GFS indicates 30cm+ of snow.
     
  49. shep12

    shep12 First Runs

    Joined:
    May 11, 2005
    Messages:
    232
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    casino nth nsw
    I hope you are right cousin having said that it is very warm at the momment. I hope the front is as cold as they say and gets here in time to turn some of the moisture into the good stuff
     
  50. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2006
    Messages:
    21,942
    Likes Received:
    1,234
    Location:
    Brisbane
    BOM are certainly on the bandwagon for snow Wed through to Thur/Fri. They have some pretty impressive numbers progged for NSW, it all comes down to timing.