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New Predictions: 8th - 15th July

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Sandy, Jul 8, 2010.

  1. ben4386

    ben4386 Hard Yards

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    lower pressures are needed sandy is right

    with a lower pressure a larger pressure gradient force is created, due to frictional effects at the centre of a low, we have convergence of air, when the air converges it rises and then cools, and reaches saturation, then precipitates out,

    therefore having a lower pressure creates more moisture, think about a tropical cyclone (which is essentially a low pressure system) lower central pressures lead to a more intense cyclone in terms of windspeed and precipitation
     
  2. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    GASP looking filthy, IMO, for this coming system. Lots of rain and then piss all snow. Die GASP!!
     
  3. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Weatherzone on board this morning as well.

     
    #203 smitty484, Jul 13, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  4. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    This is all true, however, in the case of the current system (15th), we have an embedded trough which throws another spanner in the works....as this system passes through over the next 24 to 48 hrs, pressure should fall to rougly 1008hPa maybe a touch lower.....normally that would equate to what Sandy? 20cm? But with the added effect of the trough (and possibly another embedded front which is looking to develop behind the system for Wednesday night) we could see double that? Sometimes there can be added variables to keep us on our toes [​IMG]

    I'm starting to get quitely excited about this system, a few surprises are starting to arise.....I don't want to jinx it but I strongly feel, IMO, this is the turning point in Season 2010 - make or break time baby
     
    #204 FourSquare04, Jul 13, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  5. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Correct me if I'm wrong, but none of that would happen with high pressure.
     
  6. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    The charts are irrelevant at this point in time. Much better to look at the satellite pic to see what is actually happening. If you look at it you can see the huge blob of cloud moving in from the NW. This is warm stuff and this is what is going to deliver the 80mm+ the BOM has forecast.

    The cold front is on the west side of the NW cloud band (see blue line below). Behind the cold front there is a trough which has blobs of white cloud. These are the blobs that will deliver the bulk (say 70%) of the 20-40cm snow that is forecast. The speckled cloud behind the trough will give us snow showers for about 24 hrs after the trough passes through. The speckled stuff will give us about 30% of the total snow accumulation.

    [​IMG]
     
    #206 Snow Blowey, Jul 13, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  7. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    #207 CarveMan, Jul 13, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    #208 Claude Cat, Jul 13, 2010
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  9. sorand

    sorand First Runs

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    Welcome, but, off topic.
    Suggest you use the epic thread to discuss if you must.
     
  10. Louie

    Louie A Local

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    I agree with SB. The heart wants to go with the BOM fairy tail but reality is the moisture in the first part (i.e. the majority of the whole system) is all from the tropics
     
  11. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  12. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Depends Smitty, I recall someone posting recently (unsure of which thread and who it was) that even during a high-ish pressured event (recall somewhere around 1010-1015 mark) that it delivered a larger than normal amount of snow (somewhere in the vicinity of 30cm+).
    When added variables such as troughs, embedded fronts, etc start to come into the equation, sometimes you get the odd surprise dump....if you're interested you could try searching for the thread.

    Back on Topic, As I stated in my previous post, this system has the added effect of a trough which will 'throw the spanner in the works' and increase the moisture levels significantly.
     
  13. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    [​IMG]

    two troughs aye?
     
    #213 Donza, Jul 13, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  14. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Yeah but the second one is no use over SA!!
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    #215 Claude Cat, Jul 13, 2010
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  16. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    what happens when those two great big dirty highs track across?
     
  17. Louie

    Louie A Local

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    all that warm air hitting all that cold air = instability. Could be some bad thunderstorms in this lot.
     
  18. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Nice weather, for Friday and Saturday at least.

    The upper levels (850hpa) temps are going to remain cold to cool until the next snow bearing system arrives Monday. Highs will do little damage to the new snow.
     
    #218 Stratus, Jul 13, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  19. Cuppa

    Cuppa A Local

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    #219 Cuppa, Jul 13, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  20. Dacer

    Dacer Hard Yards

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    Hmm, seems to be a little typo from BOM, although I dearly wish it wasn't.

    Quantitative rainfall Cabramurra Perisher Valley
    Today (9 am/3 pm) 0 0
    Tonight (3 pm/9 am) 0 0
    Wednesday (24 h from 9 am) 6 6
    Thursday (24 h from 9 am) 4 4

    Range 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
    Precipitation (mm) <1 1-5 6-10 11-20 21-40 41-80 >80
    The next routine forecast will be issued at 4:30 pm EST Tuesday
     
  21. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    This afternoons LAPS showing cold air not coming through until about 5am tomorrow, after 30mm - 40mm of rain.
     
  22. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    LAPS, GFS and GASP were all showing this (cold air) last night and this morning.

    [​IMG]

    Did I miss something ?
     
    #222 skiflat, Jul 13, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  23. Budgiesmuggler

    Budgiesmuggler A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm going skiing this weekend at Hotham or Falls.

    PLS let there be LOTS of new snow.
     
  24. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Well this mornings GFS / EC still show it crossing roughly just after midnight. GASP, who looks at that, should be a censored word on here really! [​IMG]
     
    #224 Stratus, Jul 13, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  25. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    Hope that's wrong...
     
  26. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Interesting that the BOM took almost 2 hours longer than normal to release their NSW snowys forecast this morning....must be a tough one to predict eh
     
  27. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    There's always a silver lining.
    Remember the NW moisture wouldn't be there if it wasn't for the low sucking it down.
    This is always the exciting part...models and maps are irrelevant.
    They've accurately predicted moisture arriving from the NW, now it will be how fast the cold air approaches.
    I'm on Mt William watch.
     
  28. Scarecrow86

    Scarecrow86 Hard Yards

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    ACCESS has the 544 line over the alps about 3-4am also, so seems on the money there. IMO

    Edit: which makes sense as ACCESS replaces LAPS. Duh. [​IMG]
     
    #228 Scarecrow86, Jul 13, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  29. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    What are your thoughts afaict? IYO do you think it will come through earlier or later? BOM seem to think later but I'm not sure if they mean the 2nd burst in their forecast or a delayed arrival of the 1st burst.....
     
    #229 FourSquare04, Jul 13, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  30. Louie

    Louie A Local

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    ?? - was there at normal time. I saw it just after 5:30 and posted it in this thread on the way in to work at ~6:30.
     
    #230 Louie, Jul 13, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  31. choc

    choc One of Us

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    Yeah, they just did an update, not uncommon... to add the warnings I think.
     
  32. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    #232 FourSquare04, Jul 13, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  34. Louie

    Louie A Local

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    and in both the original and update they are still going for 1-1.5 metres of snow over the next 72 hours. I cant see them keeping this in the 4:30 update unless their dealer has provided some particularly good crack cocaine for them to smoke on the afternoon shift....
     
  35. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Four Square - I now reckon 2am for western Vic resorts for the cold air. Its now trackable with Sat Images and AWS temps so it makes it easier to follow.
     
  36. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    As a rough guide from the VIC/SA boarder if it's a fast moving front 6 hours, if it's slow moving up to 10 hours.
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    From memory, it takes about 12 hours (on average) for cold change to arrive after seeing in Adelaide. So that makes it around 3am for Buller (I'd expect them to see it first), which is in keeping with what the models are saying.
    IMO.
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Afternoon LAPS run has the 540 line hitting buller around 4am. IMO
    Looks very, very wet, the sooner it gets there the better, because I don't see a lot afterwards.
     
  39. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Still concered about 850hPa temps. Just me?

    Latest BoM
    [​IMG]

    Not that it means much.
     
    #239 Stratus, Jul 13, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  40. snowpyro

    snowpyro Hard Yards

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    IMO the BOM know something we all don't and there will be 1.5meters of fresh by friday morning [​IMG]
     
    #240 snowpyro, Jul 13, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yes, from the start it's been a problem. MLAPS shows we only have below zero 850 temps for a period of 10 hours (starting 4am tomorrow). IMO
     
    #241 Claude Cat, Jul 13, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  42. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Also chance of showers/rain after this snow too

    IMO
     
  43. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I dunno if I agree with that, I know the models show the blue line moving on, but where is the warmer air coming from?
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I think there is a chance of this too, but more likely it will dry up first. IMO
     
    #244 Claude Cat, Jul 13, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  45. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Yep IMO Won't be too much, Buller and Southern resorts mostly!
     
  46. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM have dialled back the precipitation in this arvos forecast. They are now going for 15-30cm of snow.
     
  47. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Yes just dependant really on what totals we get tomorrow morning before 9am and as mentioned what time the wet stuff turns to white stuff according to BOM
     
    #247 loweee, Jul 13, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  48. SNJ

    SNJ One of Us

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    I think from here we need to just all sit back and watch it unfold. Dont worry about the models as the system is upon us. There will be a few that will stay up till midnight tracking it, the rest can wake up in the morning to a cover of snow. How much is obviously the question. But as we all know it all comes down to how long before the front reaches the mountains.
     
  49. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    This afternoons GFS has the cold air coming through 2am. Seems a good guess now that its going to be around this point.
     
  50. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    something to do while watching the poor bastards in the tour de france climb around 5000m vertical tonight.
     
    #250 Snow Blowey, Jul 13, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013