New york, 2ft of snow! (And a good debate about Global Warming)

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by snowishing, Oct 14, 2006.

  1. rollercoaster

    rollercoaster First Runs

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    I thought it was quite obvious by the next sentence I quoted Taipan...you know, the one about signing the new kyoto agreement...oh well I guess I should have made that clearer for some people.
     
    #102 rollercoaster, Nov 2, 2006
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  2. Taipan

    Taipan Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    can you understand the difference between correlation and causality?
     
  3. Taipan

    Taipan Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    #104 Taipan, Nov 2, 2006
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  4. Taipan

    Taipan Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I will give the global warming supporters an A+.

    Their media campaign is absolutley outstanding. Listening to the media campaign, they have known for at least 25 years that man is to blame for all global warming catastrophe's.

    But please dont listen to a huge number of alternate scientists who have been completely drowned out for political purposes.

    The fact that Strewns report came out yesterday and legislation also was introduced yesterday into the house of commons says exactly what this was all about.

    This was never about science, this was about politics. They knew long before the report was prepared what the out come was, because the UK government had asked strewn to suppply a report which would deliver them the answer that they had originally wanted.
     
  5. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Q.
    Are we agreed that climate change occurs WITHOUT human intervention??

    If so, name a couple of examples in the last 1500 years.(Don't include the last two hundred, with fossil fuel burning)
     
    #106 Sandy, Nov 2, 2006
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  6. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I agree that climate change occurs both with and without human influence. I could cite any number of volcanic eruptions for short term effects, naturally occuring changes to groundwater vegetation gain/loss and subsequent downwind weather changes, etc.

    But...

    I could also give examples of urban heat island effects that have a similar change downwind, man induced groundwater and vegetation change with subsequent local climate change, etc.

    What is your point?
     
  7. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Matched only by the skeptics campaign. Again you fail to present a balanced opinion. I see no point in arguing the science when you focus on false accusations.
     
    #108 filski, Nov 3, 2006
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  8. The Ravenous Frenchman

    The Ravenous Frenchman First Runs

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    Here's some data for you:

    Mean daily maximum (MDM) Thredbo 2006: 16.0
    Previous record: 15.2 in 1990

    Mean daily maximum (MDM) Perisher 2006: 14.5
    Previous record: 11.6 in 1991 [​IMG]

    Mean daily maximum (MDM) Thrdbo AWS 2006: 11.2
    Previous record: 9.4 in 1977 [​IMG]

    Certainly very warm at higher elevations.
     
    #109 The Ravenous Frenchman, Nov 3, 2006
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  9. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Climate changes regardless of human intervention. There was a natural warm period from about 900AD until around 1300AD, and a cool period from around 1400AD until the 1800s. These were natural variations in climate, not just short term variations due to single volcanic eruptions.

    You cite 80 years of decreased Actic sea ice as PROOF of man made global warming, but IT IS NOT.

    My point is this:
    There are NATURAL warming and NATURAL cooling events in our climate. If we are in a natural warming trend, and the temperature continues to climb, then man made global warming may not be as bad as most people think it is!!!! Conversely, if we are in a natural cooling trend, but the temperature continues to climb, then man made global warming could be WORSE than most people think it is!!!! Think about it. Most of the thinking in man made global warming revolves around observations of temperatures (and C02) in the last 150 years.(and is also compared with C02 in the ice record) You yourself offered as PROOF sea ice observations, that man made global warming is real. This is NOT convincing to me. You have failed to extract any natural warming or cooling before arriving at that assumption.

    To be clear, these are the things I struggled with over my 15 years of skepticism. We are ACTUALLY in ONE of the Earth's cooling cycles. The precession of the equinox shows that we are around 8000-9000 years into a cooling phase. There are other natural warming and cooling phases as well. many are not understood. However, I think man made global warming IS real.

    Regardsless of whether you think man made global warming is true or not, it is better to ASSUME we are in a natural cooling phase, that man made global warming IS real, and that we should take measures to minimise it.
     
    #110 Sandy, Nov 3, 2006
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  10. rollercoaster

    rollercoaster First Runs

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    Certainly can. It looks like the prime is beginning to understand that difference as well. Never thought I'd see the day. [​IMG]
     
    #111 rollercoaster, Nov 3, 2006
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  11. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    Geez - anyone know about what I wrote - appears not. Wouldn't rely too heavy on five seconds worth of ice data - if indeed the dating is correct. How can such a huge subject be taken down to some ice core samples.....science is infantile, and politically motivated science is absurd because people are prepared to maybe overlook real facts for the sake of a few dollars. The hysteria is that akin to 9-11, these days are indeed jovial because the way human beings are starting to behave...it has to be a joke right. Cannot see the point on debating the science on this....it is all politically convoluted and as if that were to be honest!

    Too much us and them type attitide...similar to the terrorism / Islam thing...instead of banding together and focusing on what can be done.....like a holden v ford debate this is....but the governments want division, because division permits control easier. Freak I am sick of being like a guinnea pig caged in its' run.....that is what life on this planet is, then many worship the few, like movie or music stars, because they got out of the caged run....same for this debate, we are being caged into yet more behaviour.

    Anyone out there use a ghey leaf blower tool....the most girly gardening tool yet invented, and serious on global warming....what a freaking hypocritical thing....fossil fuel burning to blow leaves around....make me want to job the d'head using it. Any degree of seriousness on this topic is p155ed against the wall if ANYONE uses this or similar appliances.

    Just had to vent the leaf blower thing - bet Koshie on Ch7 Sunrise Cool the Globe has got one.
     
  12. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    You may have mis-read my initial post. I was criticising Taipan for citing about a decades worth of data from last century in order to debunk the problems associated with the arctic now. He hasn't bothered to check the reasons for that data.

    I agree with you on the rest. The wonderful chart of gores shows for the last 10000yrs we are in a very different period to anything that has been recorded in millions of years - sustained warmth at a level that should have triggered the cooling period you speak of. The problem is that human induced GW didn't exist 1000 yrs ago let alone 10000... or did it? Why the sustained warmth for so long?

    Just one question that needs to be answered.
     
    #113 filski, Nov 3, 2006
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  13. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I have something to say on the dating of ice cores but it'll take me a while to dig it out, no time now (working 16hrs a day latley).
     
    #114 filski, Nov 3, 2006
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  14. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Actually, there is some evidence to suggest human induced GW started to influence the climate as early as 8000 years ago....
     
    #115 Sandy, Nov 3, 2006
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  15. slalom pete

    slalom pete Hard Yards

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    Were we able to test ice cores 8000 yrs ago?
     
    #116 slalom pete, Nov 4, 2006
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  16. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ice cores go back over 700,000 year.
     
  17. adminvb

    adminvb First Runs

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    Evidence for human induced GW 8,000 years ago? That would be interesting reading. Got a link Sandy?
     
  18. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I remember reading a few months ago about evidence that pointed to human induced warming in Europe many thousands of years ago. Basically they were able to find a correlation between a period of warming with a period of large scale clearing of land.

    And for those who will say "how can they possibly know for sure those two things were linked in a cause and effect type relationship" I remember the article not portraying their theory as fact but simply saying this is the best expanation we have so far for this warming period in question.

    Sorry but I can't find the link anymore so can't provide any real detail, just what I remember of it. Its possible it may even have been something linked and discussed in this forum in a past global warming thread.
     
  19. daj

    daj First Runs

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    >I could point out so many holes in Manns work it would make you cry.

    Taipan, point us to a SINGLE science paper which provides an alternative to Mann's analysis which contradicts his findings. Just one will do.

    There must be dozens given your tone...

    Regards,

    Hill Billy

    PS, The E&E paper was not peer reviewed and is not an alternative as the authors now deny they attempted to provide an alternative and stuffed the analysis up anyway.
     
  20. Mr. Mook

    Mr. Mook One of Us

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    This is a very good example why a lot of people don’t want to believe in global warming.
    3 isolated facts have been taken out of context and a comment made to indicate that they are evidence of “global warmingâ€. So let’s put them into context.
    <ul><li>The OLDEST of the 3 weather stations has only been in operation since 1966 – so we only have 41 years data to start with anyway.</li><li>The AWS has only been Automatic since 1997. From 1966 to 1996 it was a manual station – IE someone had to climb the damn mountain every day to collect the data!</li><li>Manual weather stations have a high degree incomplete data. For the AWS 1966 – 2004 the data is only 62% complete, for the Village 1969 – 2004 it’s 80% and for Perisher 1976 – 2004 it’s 66% source - http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/ca_nsw_names.shtml </li></ul>

    Too much data is missing - almost 40% in one case.

    rollercoaster once said I have an “everything is all right†attitude. I don’t. But I also don’t have an “everything is all wrong†attitude either.

    The climate is changing. And some “relatively†isolated bad things are happening. But is it actually BAD? And if so why? What is “bad climate�

    And are there REALLY that many more catastrophic events or is it that as a result of much better communications and an ever expanding human population we simply are hearing about them more often? How many droughts happened between 1800 and 1900? How many floods? How many cyclones devastated the North West coast of Australia? How many years were hotter than average? How many years were colder than average?
    What is the “average†anyway except an arbitrary number arrived at as a result of calculations based on just over 100 years of weather data collection? The oft quoted SOI isn’t even based on that much data!
    from http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soihtm1.shtml


    As Sandy has said repeatedly in this thread - Yes the climate is changing but you can not prove that human actions are the cause as you do not have enough hard evidence directly linking it to human activity.

    Does that mean I believe we do not need to do anything about greenhouse gas & fossil fuel use? Of course not! Pollution of any kind is bad, and anything we can do to reduce it is good.

    Do I think we should continue to clear land and develop poisonous chemicals and products that will still be around in thousands of years? No way. Let’s develop alternatives to non-degradable plastics and, for that matter, nuclear waste as well. Let’s come up with ways of feeding people that don’t require them destroying forests at unsustainable rates.

    Are all these things causing global warming/climate change? I don’t believe so. And I also don’t believe that getting rid of all of them will reverse global warming/climate change.

    Personally I feel too much effort is being put into “the end is nigh†campaigns that could be better spent on actually trying to fix the problems we have right now.
     
    #121 Mr. Mook, Nov 5, 2006
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  21. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Busy weekend.
    I'll see if I can find that....
     
    #122 Sandy, Nov 6, 2006
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  22. slalom pete

    slalom pete Hard Yards

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    Heard this morning that the csiro is predicting a 6 degree rise in temps by 2070 and a 40% drop in rainfall for nsw.Did they just pluck these figures out of thin air or what?They can't even forecast the weather right 7 days out let alone in 60 yrs time!
     
  23. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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    CSIRO do the weather forecasts ?
     
  24. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Slalom Pete, if you've heard those numbers through the media they may well have taken the extreme end of the CSIRO's predictions to make a better story.

    See this link http://www.csiro.au/files/files/p3ct.pdf for an introduction to the CSIRO's recent efforts at predicting climate change in Australia. These studies produced a range of warming between 1 to 6C by 2070.

    It probably helps to prove the point many are making here of how easy it is for someone (especially media) to take results of climate change studies (or even do biased studies designed to get a certain result, not that I am suggesting CSIRO has done this)out of context to suit the agruement they are making and quite possibly their further political stand point.
     
    #125 BlueHue, Nov 6, 2006
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  25. Taipan

    Taipan Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ah its lovely to be back with all the scared weird little guys.

    Now this isnt for Daj. This is for other readers wanting to understand what is going on.

    In the last week or two since the stern report, the media has been in a frenzy. If you were easily led you would have been out on the street in Sydney and other capital cities screaming for government action.

    Well the apocalypse has been cancelled.

    Here is a fairly straightforward report that gives a good overview of what climate change is happening.

    Unfortunately various interest groups and a small number of scientists are doing an excellent job of leading the worlds population astray for their own purposes in labelling catastrophic climate change by man made action.

    Climate chaos? Don\'t believe it

    Make sure you also download the 40 page report that supports the article.

    Daj start on about page 7

    I particularly like these couple of comments about Mann.

    Philip Muller (2004) a physicist at Berkley said of the two canadian (McIntyre and McKitrick) scientists work -

    "...hit me like a bombshell, and i suspect it is having the same effect on many others. Suddenly the hockey stick, the poster child of the global warming community, turns out to be an artifact of poor mathematics."


    or this

    In February 2005 the German television channel Das Erste interviewed Ulrich Cubasch a climatologist, who said that he had been unable to reproduce the Mann et al "hockey stick" graph, whereupon he -

    "discussed the objections with his colleagues, and sought to work through them. Bit by bit, it became clear to him that the two Canadians were right..... Between 1400 - 1600 the temperature shift was considerably higher then, for example, in the previous century. With that, the core conclusion, and also that of the entire IPCC 2001 report was completely undermined."
     
    #126 Taipan, Nov 6, 2006
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  26. rollercoaster

    rollercoaster First Runs

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    Bad climate??? Climate is never bad. What is bad is climate change...fast climate change. A change of just a few degrees can wipe out an entire species. Is that bad enough? A change of just a few degrees can wipe out hundreds/thousands of species. For the majority of us that is bad...an "everything is all wrong" kind of BAD. Yes this has happened before in earths history...but at a global rate so as to prevent adaptation? Actually, yes. But they are called generally called mass extinctions. If you mean that "everything is all bad" = disadvantage to humans alone...then that is interesting.
     
    #127 rollercoaster, Nov 6, 2006
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  27. daj

    daj First Runs

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    Taipan, once again an unpublished & non-peer reviewed report by someone none of us have ever heard of before.... Even you must be troubled by many of his arguments... like suggesting that the warming is due to heat islands, like sea level isn't rising, like the fictional State of Fear is a credible source of material. The stuff about the Chinese fleet in 1441 is pure fantasy (try a little independent research for a change). Have a look at the hockey stick figures.. he uses Mann's analysis to criticise Mann! He suggests that Soon and Baliunis found a Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm period (guess you have forgotten that Soon and Baliunis didn't even require the Little Ice Age to be cold or Medieval Warm Period to be warm in their study). I could go on and on, but we both know your opinion won't change, and this report is hardly the stuff of good science.

    BTW, try googling the author. He certainly has had some pretty odd ideas.

    Meanwhile, I still wait for the SINGLE peer reviewed science paper from you.

    Hill Billy
     
  28. slalom pete

    slalom pete Hard Yards

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    Another piece of political scaremongering by this time the South aust premier mike rann at the water summit in canberra.He said this is not a 1in100yr drought but a 1in1000yr drought.How the hell would he know what sort of droughts we've had?
     
  29. Mrstr_Chief

    Mrstr_Chief One of Us

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    Its an assumption, arent all scientific predictions just assumptions....
     
    #130 Mrstr_Chief, Nov 7, 2006
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  30. rollercoaster

    rollercoaster First Runs

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    He is probably just expressing the fact that we have not seen a drought like this since records were kept 100 years ago. Therefore he is just using an arbitrary figure of 1000. :rolleyes:
     
    #131 rollercoaster, Nov 7, 2006
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  31. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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    He was quoting the MDBC (Murray Darling Basin comittee) folks who reckon this is the case.

    There are pretty reasonable records of erosion, vegetation change, fire and other indicators in the environmental record for the recent past.

    A big call the 1000 year call, but conceivably true.

    Remember, the fact that YOU don't know something, doesn't mean that someone else doesn't know it or that it isn't well studied.
     
    #132 climberman, Nov 7, 2006
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  32. D-eye

    D-eye Photographer and skier Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    1421 - http://www.1421.tv/
     
    #133 D-eye, Nov 7, 2006
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  33. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Scroll down to the middle of this brief from the Murray Darling Basin commission and there is graph of annual totals of Murray inflows for the whole river system:

    drought brief here

    Annual inflows averaged over a few years for this current drought now appear to be well below annual inflows for the 1930-1940's and 1890's droughts. The call for a 1 in 1000 yr drought in that context, like Climberman said, might be concievably true!

    I'd have to agree though, still definitely a big call.

    It would be interesting to know how this drought fits into the scheme of natural variation in Australian rainfall patterns over the last few thousand years.
     
    #134 BlueHue, Nov 7, 2006
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