USA North America Weather 2018/19

Wardy

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Jun 7, 2010
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The edge of the bell curve
It did. And not just along the coast. Georgia is a mess.

92 out of 100 counties in the state of North Carolina where I live have flash flood warnings for tomorrow. Could get over 5 inches of rain in the next day in central NC. NC State Fair was supposed to open in Raleigh but will delay a day. That's a big deal financially. Most counties in central NC have cancelled school due to the threat of high winds, rain, and tornadoes. Univ. of Wilmington on the coast just re-opened for classes on Oct. 8 after severe flooding and damage from Hurricane Florence. Students had to evacuate on Sept. 10, a few days before the storm made landfall right over campus. Had to cancelled classes again for the end of this week.
Good luck with the clean up and recovery @MarzNC
 
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MarzNC

One of Us
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Jun 8, 2017
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Raleigh, NC, USA
over50skifitness.blogspot.com
Good luck with the clean up and recovery @MarzNC
Thanks but I'm very lucky. Our house is about 15 miles east of where the worst of the winds hit hard yesterday evening. Nothing much to clean up. Have been enough high winds in the last 30 years that no trees are left near the house to worry about. Including when Hurricane Fran went right over in 1994. Looking up into an eye at the stars is a weird feeling, just before the wind shifts to the other direction.

Our county and one county to the west are closed for the day because there are too many power outages for traffic lights and downed trees on the roads. It was a narrow band where the winds picked up late in the day and caught people off guard.

This time there are significant areas with power outages all over North Carolina, from the mountains to the coast. It takes 8-10 hours to drive from west to east, so that's a lot of territory for the power company to cover. The wind blew down some really big trees with soaked roots in Chapel Hill, where the original campus of the University of North Carolina is located.
 
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Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Aug 24, 2015
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My preliminary winter outlook for Winter 2018-19 is now out.

https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/10/october-preliminary-northern-hemisphere.html

An abstract of my outlook. Full details in link above.

"So in summary, my forecast is for a rapidly descending to positive QBO, weak-moderate basin-wide El Niño with perhaps some weird atmospheric feedback, neutral/slightly +PDO, strong -EPO, a -AO and -NAO and a much further south than usual Aleutian Low. Also some potential Scandi blocking, and blocking over the Barents-Kara Sea."
 
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Wardy

One of Us
Jun 7, 2010
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The edge of the bell curve
My preliminary winter outlook for Winter 2018-19 is now out.

https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/10/october-preliminary-northern-hemisphere.html

An abstract of my outlook. Full details in link above.

"So in summary, my forecast is for a rapidly descending to positive QBO, weak-moderate basin-wide El Niño with perhaps some weird atmospheric feedback, neutral/slightly +PDO, strong -EPO, a -AO and -NAO and a much further south than usual Aleutian Low. Also some potential Scandi blocking, and blocking over the Barents-Kara Sea."
Thorough... :thumbs:
 
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Bogan Daddy

Hard Yards
May 26, 2018
39
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cool and warm in banff at the moment. locals very happy. not much snow on the ground. some in forecast this week but its well late. last 2 years sunshine was open by now.
 

Bogan Daddy

Hard Yards
May 26, 2018
39
23
58
OK, It's a relative thing I guess. It's been way warmer this year than the last 4. So it's cooling, but comparatively warm compared to previous years. Nothing really open yet and they lost alot of cover to rain a week ago. Spoke with my sister in law and in starts like this it comes after Haloween and often with a bang. Big white had 20-30 in the last couple of days.
 

Scooter

One of Us
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Mar 1, 2001
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Brisbane, QLD, Australia
cool and warm in banff at the moment. locals very happy. not much snow on the ground. some in forecast this week but its well late. last 2 years sunshine was open by now.

Was surprised when I read this the other day - they had those good snowfalls a few weeks ago and Banff was looking positively wintery for awhile so figured it was set for the start of the season but I guess warm/wet will put paid to that. Still reckon that Banff gondola webcam is one of the best (but it doesn't seem to be working right now).

Keep the on the ground updates going @Bogan Daddy
 

gareth_oau

Pool Room
Ski Pass
Dec 27, 2008
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Canning Vale, Perth
Was surprised when I read this the other day - they had those good snowfalls a few weeks ago and Banff was looking positively wintery for awhile so figured it was set for the start of the season but I guess warm/wet will put paid to that. Still reckon that Banff gondola webcam is one of the best (but it doesn't seem to be working right now).

Keep the on the ground updates going @Bogan Daddy

good live webcam in Canmore located here
https://canmorealberta.com/webcams/main-street
 

Bogan Daddy

Hard Yards
May 26, 2018
39
23
58
Making snow at the moment. LL lost all its base down low and they have started to build it up. The lake itself started to freeze about week ago and then melted again. Sunshine is making snow in valley but been getting snow up higher. Still very high the snow line ATM. Louise is due to open in a week or so. Not much natural cover down low. Been watching it on the Banff web cams. They forecast the snow and then its pretty hit and miss. Seriously worried about Whistler in January and Rain. I'd still go just to get to Valbella meats in Cannore and have more standing rib and jerky!
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
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CO looks to get a nice top up this week.
Courtesy of a anchored trailing high over MT/North Dakota, a polar outbreak sends snow all the way south for Texas/highland Mexico etc. by Tuesday/Wednesday this week. Quite a dynamic system with rainfall ahead of the cold air looking treacherous.
Temp records look fragile on the back end of it all.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_6.png


gfs_T2ma_us_11.png


Jet stream looking quite vigorous, come Tuesday. >200knts through the NE is a serious driver.
gfs_uv250_us_11.png
 

MarzNC

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jun 8, 2017
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Raleigh, NC, USA
over50skifitness.blogspot.com
NYC (proper) could see it's first snowfall on Thursday.
Boston could get snow too this week. I was just at the Boston Ski Expo. Every rep of a ski area or ski resort in the U.S. northeast was planning on starting snowmaking this weekend. Even though the American Thanksgiving is early, Nov. 22, this season there will be lots of options for skiing that holiday weekend.

Killington in VT and Wildcat in NH got the most diehards this weekend.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Boston could get snow too this week. I was just at the Boston Ski Expo. Every rep of a ski area or ski resort in the U.S. northeast was planning on starting snowmaking this weekend. Even though the American Thanksgiving is early, Nov. 22, this season there will be lots of options for skiing that holiday weekend.

Killington in VT and Wildcat in NH got the most diehards this weekend.
Quite the potential for it being a rain event in the NE IMO, rather than top to bottom and low level snow. There’s alot of warm/moist advection once it comes across the SE of the States.

Right now I think places like VT need a prolonged cold dry period for snowmaking - it’s what these resorts excel at.

The follow up system this weekend holds the most potential for snow making (and natural snow) in the NE resorts with more fridgid temps progged.
 

Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
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Aug 24, 2015
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It has gone warmer in the last few runs IMO. Still potential, although lesser, though it would be snow then rain.
 

MarzNC

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jun 8, 2017
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Raleigh, NC, USA
over50skifitness.blogspot.com
Quite the potential for it being a rain event in the NE IMO, rather than top to bottom and low level snow. There’s alot of warm/moist advection once it comes across the SE of the States.
What's even more entertaining for me is that the ski areas in the southeast (NC, VA, WV) were able to start snowmaking in the last few days. Even had a couple in North Carolina opened a couple trails on Sunday just to make a little news. Those hills are a few hours west of where I live.

Snowshoe in WV is on Ikon now. Lots of people are watching the snowmaking there since a lot of new guns were installed over the summer. Not supposed to get much rain before a solid week of cold temps right before the American Thanksgiving on Nov. 22. May well get some days when 24-hr snowmaking it possible.

The winners for the cold temps in the next week in the U.S. northeast will be Whiteface and Jay Peak (northern NY, VT) and Tremblant (Québec).
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
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May 28, 2000
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CO looks to get a nice top up this week.
Courtesy of a anchored trailing high over MT/North Dakota, a polar outbreak sends snow all the way south for Texas/highland Mexico etc. by Tuesday/Wednesday this week. Quite a dynamic system with rainfall ahead of the cold air looking treacherous.
Temp records look fragile on the back end of it all.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_6.png


gfs_T2ma_us_11.png


Jet stream looking quite vigorous, come Tuesday. >200knts through the NE is a serious driver.
gfs_uv250_us_11.png
 

Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Aug 24, 2015
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And here is my final seasonal outlook for North America:
https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/11/north-american-winter-outlook-2018-19.html

Extract:
  • I forecast California to have an above average snowfall season.
  • I forecast Colorado/Utah/NM/AZ to have an average, maybe even slightly above average snowfall season
  • I forecast the PNW and BC to have a below average snowfall season.
  • I forecast the Eastern US (New England and Mid Atlantic) to have a moderately-strongly above average snowfall season, particularly in December and February
IMG_5765.jpg
 
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MarzNC

One of Us
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Jun 8, 2017
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Raleigh, NC, USA
over50skifitness.blogspot.com
And here is my final seasonal outlook for North America:
Sounds good to me given where I'm going to be skiing this season.

Not that it matters to anyone but people who live in the American southeast, here's the 2018-19 forecast by the meteorologist who does forecasts for SkiSoutheast. Most of the ski areas are in North Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia, but also applies to Tennessee (Ober Gatlinburg) and Maryland (Wisp). Snowshoe in WV is part of Alterra (was Intrawest) and is the biggest ski resort within a day's drive of DC/Baltimore. SkiSE serves the metropolitan areas of Atlanta, Charlotte, and Raleigh/Durham. Folks in Florida who drive 8-12 hours to NC/WV for ski vacations read it too. Beech Mountain in the NC mountains is over 5000 ft.

http://www.skisoutheast.com/brad-panovichs-2018-2019-winter-forecast/
 

Kletterer

Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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Nov 26, 2014
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More for Mammoth coming imo. Double header making a beeline for California atm. Some healthy totals also on EC.
beeline.png
beeline2.png
 

Fast Eddie

One of Us
Jul 27, 2015
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F8B5576A-615A-4F65-8EE2-58FB0FB4BAF3.jpeg
Looks like Whistler is about to cop a direct hit from back to back systems from this weekend until Xmas. Some serious snow totals being thrown around on GFS.

Catch up time after a slow November.
 
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Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Aug 24, 2015
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IMG_5863.PNG

EC is on the same page as GFS. Good time to be in Whistler with 3m+. Deeper inland BC looks pretty good too, relative to it's location.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Mountain High (24" base) & Big Bear (36" base) getting some love from this main system through California yesterday & today.
Hasn't looked this good in early December for a few years...
Mt High:
borderlinecam.jpg


Big Bear, CA:
mjpeg.jpg
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
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May 28, 2000
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Eastern Burbs of Sydney
IMG_5863.PNG

EC is on the same page as GFS. Good time to be in Whistler with 3m+. Deeper inland BC looks pretty good too, relative to it's location.
Despite it only being the first week of DEC, Whistler has struggled in the last month by comparison to other resorts, which is a little surprising. A bit of a slow start... It needs this.
 

Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Aug 24, 2015
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Canberra
Despite it only being the first week of DEC, Whistler has struggled in the last month by comparison to other resorts, which is a little surprising. A bit of a slow start... It needs this.
It certainly does. The season forecast was never great for Whistler.
 

Bogan Daddy

Hard Yards
May 26, 2018
39
23
58
Yep. I can feel the rain coming still in january. Big white is about par, banf is about 20-30 behind too. Wish we had stayed with big white.
 

Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Aug 24, 2015
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Debunked if it cracks your quoted 3m though right?!
Maybe. But there's still plenty more season to go. And the Xmas well into January period, looks to favour a Eastern US troughing trend, on the back of a forecasted SSW and Niño forcing.
 

Bogan Daddy

Hard Yards
May 26, 2018
39
23
58
not my 3m. I think its 50 to 80 cnts for what its worth. bit more on top. Problem is the freezing level is still 12-1300m. So rain on the lower slopes likely. Mountain watch did have a lower freezing level. Just seems to have thredbo written all over it.
 

Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Aug 24, 2015
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not my 3m. I think its 50 to 80 cnts for what its worth. bit more on top. Problem is the freezing level is still 12-1300m. So rain on the lower slopes likely. Mountain watch did have a lower freezing level. Just seems to have thredbo written all over it.
That's fair enough. 3m was always going to be for the peaks.
 

Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Aug 24, 2015
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anyone care to hazard a guess as to the next couple weeks in Colorado?
Pattern looks like the next week below average, 17-24 Dec above average in the back of a NP Jet extension into California, caused by a +EAMT pattern, inducing a stronger Aleutian Low, which itself induces a SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) that makes a negative AO setup occur after Christmas. This creates a +PNA pattern, which is likely to stifle the NP Jetstream in hitting California, bringing moisture inland, allowing the creation of a ridge over Western US.

So the week before Christmas looks good, the weeks after, not so good. But of course this doesn't mean a system can't come through, it just reduces the chance of one with strong snowfall accum numbers.

And this isn't a guess, this is the outline of the next month's atmospheric pattern. As much as I admire what Gratz has done for medium term snowfall forecasting (and I have had a few discussions with him and BA via the comments section), he doesn't forecast into the Week 3-4 range IIRC. If you wanted the next 7 days, go to him or yr.no for your specific location.
 
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absentskier

Smug bozo
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Jun 10, 2010
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Pattern looks like the next week below average, 17-24 Dec above average in the back of a NP Jet extension into California, caused by a +EAMT pattern, inducing a stronger Aleutian Low, which itself induces a SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) that makes a negative AO setup occur after Christmas. This creates a +PNA pattern, which is likely to stifle the NP Jetstream in hitting California, bringing moisture inland, allowing the creation of a ridge over Western US.

So the week before Christmas looks good, the weeks after, not so good. But of course this doesn't mean a system can't come through, it just reduces the chance of one with strong snowfall accum numbers.

And this isn't a guess, this is the outline of the next month's atmospheric pattern. As much as I admire what Gratz has done for medium term snowfall forecasting (and I have had a few discussions with him and BA via the comments section), he doesn't forecast into the Week 3-4 range IIRC. If you wanted the next 7 days, go to him or yr.no for your specific location.
He doesn’t like to forecast 3-4 weeks out for very good reason.
 
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