USA North America Weather 2018/19

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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anyone care to hazard a guess as to the next couple weeks in Colorado?
Smells like Winter in Europe.
Below is the Boreal Arctic Vorex (large scale, upper level stratospheric low bound in the arctic region for winter). In laymans terms; it's full blown winter for Europe/Siberia for now with an upper level High pressure (circa Alaska/Bering Sea) limiting substantial winter systems through Western/Central USA/Canada.
IMO should see a turn for the better into the new year.

GFS (for next week)
gfs_Tz10_nhem_15.png


EC in agreeance.
Screen Shot 2018-12-09 at 7.30.50 pm.png
 

Jellybeans

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Smells like Winter in Europe.
Below is the Boreal Arctic Vorex (large scale, upper level stratospheric low bound in the arctic region for winter). In laymans terms; it's full blown winter for Europe/Siberia for now with an upper level High pressure (circa Alaska/Bering Sea) limiting substantial winter systems through Western/Central USA/Canada.
IMO should see a turn for the better into the new year.

GFS (for next week)
gfs_Tz10_nhem_15.png


EC in agreeance.
Screen Shot 2018-12-09 at 7.30.50 pm.png
The problem is there is currently a decoupled tropospheric and stratospheric polar vortex. Wait until the SSW (or close enough) for the coupling.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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The problem is there is currently a decoupled tropospheric and stratospheric polar vortex. Wait until the SSW (or close enough) for the coupling.
Sometimes people on here want the yes/no answer not the nitty gritty jargon. Just trying to keep it simple for a one line question.

Seperately, I am not so sure the warming event will eventuate IMO. We're dealing with hypotheticals (as are the models) until then.
 

Jellybeans

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Sometimes people on here want the yes/no answer not the nitty gritty jargon. Just trying to keep it simple for a one line question.

Seperately, I am not so sure the warming event will eventuate IMO. We're dealing with hypotheticals (as are the models) until then.
That's fine, simplicity is useful at certain times, like perhaps this :)

Given the Aleutian Low strengthening, alongside the Siberian/Barents-Kara High system, it will weaken the stratospheric vortex. It's a textbook downstream Niño forcing sequence. The experts (some who I have been privileged to talk to) have been on this for the last two weeks.
 

Sbooker

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That's fine, simplicity is useful at certain times, like perhaps this :)

Given the Aleutian Low strengthening, alongside the Siberian/Barents-Kara High system, it will weaken the stratospheric vortex. It's a textbook downstream Niño forcing sequence. The experts (some who I have been privileged to talk to) have been on this for the last two weeks.

What does that mean? Higher temps in Europe over Christmas/early January?
I'm hoping for the opposite.
 

Jellybeans

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What does that mean? Higher temps in Europe over Christmas/early January?
I'm hoping for the opposite.
Not necessarily higher temps, just typically less frequency of winter systems through the region.
In my opinion, it means more systems and more cold into Europe, per a SSW and +AAM (more momentum in the overall winds in the Northern Hemisphere).
 

MarzNC

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over50skifitness.blogspot.com
Anyone notice that 15-20 inches came down in the North Carolina and Virginia mountains today? All in less than 24 hours.

My home mountain in northern VA (3 hours west of Washington DC) reported 5 inches in the late afternoon. I expect the total to be closer to 10 inches at Massanutten based on what I was seeing on their webcams after dark.

http://www.skisoutheast.com/natty-l...lina-mountains-conditions-great-open-resorts/

I was supposed to drive north on Monday. Had reasons to leave early. Good thing because driving in NC/VA would not be a good idea tomorrow. I'm watching the Weather Channel in Boston. A bit funny. My husband said there was 7-8 inches in our yard. Dog loved it (same dog as my avatar).
 
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Jellybeans

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Anyone notice that 15-20 inches came down in the North Carolina and Virginia mountains today? All in less than 24 hours.

My home mountain in northern VA (3 hours west of Washington DC) reported 5 inches in the late afternoon. I expect the total to be closer to 10 inches at Massanutten based on what I was seeing on their webcams after dark.

http://www.skisoutheast.com/natty-l...lina-mountains-conditions-great-open-resorts/

I was supposed to drive north on Monday. Had reasons to leave early. Good thing because driving in NC/VA would not be a good idea tomorrow. I'm watching the Weather Channel in Boston. A bit funny. My husband said there was 7-8 inches in our yard. Dog loved it (same dog as my avatar).
Yep. The people I talk to, were not that happy that it didn't really get to DC (or north of it). But given a favourable period ahead, they will be more than fine.
 
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Fast Eddie

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Forecast snow has (finally) started in Whistler with approx 30cm falling since 0600 local time today at mid mountain snow stake. Much more to come over the next seven days as discussed.
Yep, looks like another 5-6 good bursts this side of Christmas as per all the models. Should look great if it holds.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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The elongation of the PV looks to yield some winter systems to propagate further across the West Coast & Rockies.
GFS going for a series of systems in the LR - first week of Jan, whilst EC like a solid cold outbreak on/around New Years.
Models still largely divergent beyond a week but IMO the outlook appears favourable for some top-up systems through BC & some of the Rockies. CA may fall short however.
The down side is it's a relatively dry system once it's shadowed through the Rockies.
ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_9.png
 
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Jellybeans

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Yep it looks pretty favourable, until the first week of January. Get amongst it while you can. Could be some nice jet extensions.

Looking very blocked off the West Coast. That big Low should push it into the Western PNA region unfortunately with time.
IMG_6004.PNG
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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The elongation of the PV looks to yield some winter systems to propagate further across the West Coast & Rockies.
GFS going for a series of systems in the LR - first week of Jan, whilst EC like a solid cold outbreak on/around New Years.
Models still largely divergent beyond a week but IMO the outlook appears favourable for some top-up systems through BC & some of the Rockies. CA may fall short however.
The down side is it's a relatively dry system once it's shadowed through the Rockies.
ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_9.png
Incoming for Pac Nor West. Below is for Whistler:
E74D8EE3-B395-4422-9550-CDB069F7FFCE.jpeg
 
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Jellybeans

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Looks like a massive storm over two days. Freeze level looks about 1000m maybe a little higher during the day?

I arrive 28th for 10 days...
Yep the 3rd looks like a Snow level of about 900-1000m, warming slowly as the day goes on.
4th looks like 1400-1500m snow level, with FLs at 1700-1800m, cooling in the early evening into the night.

Later in the month, doesn't look awfully great....
 

bondibob

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Yep the 3rd looks like a Snow level of about 900-1000m, warming slowly as the day goes on.
4th looks like 1400-1500m snow level, with FLs at 1700-1800m, cooling in the early evening into the night.

Later in the month, doesn't look awfully great....
Yeah I have seen your long range forecast - and always read all
With interest. I appreciate the effort you put in to them.

I have also been reading a Canada forum as well. Was supposed to be a below average year with blocky favouring east coast and Cali.

Not overly concerned, plenty of snow on the ground and years of Thredbo have taught me to accept whatever you get. We have been very lucky on our travels to date across usa, and japan. So due a off week eventually.

Will you be updating your long range soonish?
 

Jellybeans

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Yeah I have seen your long range forecast - and always read all
With interest. I appreciate the effort you put in to them.

I have also been reading a Canada forum as well. Was supposed to be a below average year with blocky favouring east coast and Cali.

Not overly concerned, plenty of snow on the ground and years of Thredbo have taught me to accept whatever you get. We have been very lucky on our travels to date across usa, and japan. So due a off week eventually.

Will you be updating your long range soonish?
Yep, but the BC has been pretty snowy with a relaxation of the pattern described above (favouring East and Cali). People I am talking to are saying that pattern should go through into February.

My long range will be out tonight, if nothing major happens in between.
 

Wardy

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The edge of the bell curve
Avi control Thursday morning going to make for a delayed start at Whistler and looooooong queues and waits in the morning IMO. Heading up tomorrow for first lifts but will aim for a late morning start Thursday.
 
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Jellybeans

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Will you be updating your long range soonish?
Yep, but the BC has been pretty snowy with a relaxation of the pattern described above (favouring East and Cali). People I am talking to are saying that pattern should go through into February.

My long range will be out tonight, if nothing major happens in between.
And here it is:
https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2019/01/north-america-on-long-term-2nd-jan.html

A MJO Phase 6-7-8 orbit, current +AAM amplification and ultimately the slow downwelling of the now official SSW, will bring a good 10 days to the West Coast (we are still in a +AO, in terms of the TPV). Then the Eastern US gets it's turn from midway through the month, well into February IMO, given all of the above drivers favour them for cold.
 
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bondibob

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And here it is:
https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2019/01/north-america-on-long-term-2nd-jan.html

A MJO Phase 6-7-8 orbit, current +AAM amplification and ultimately the slow downwelling of the now official SSW, will bring a good 10 days to the West Coast (we are still in a +AO, in terms of the TPV). Then the Eastern US gets it's turn from midway through the month, well into February IMO, given all of the above drivers favour them for cold.
thanks Jelly as always very interesting read - even tho not sounding like favourable long term for my trip to BC in late January/early feb
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Looking like a repeat next Tue/Wed with another 2 foot+ on the cards as per GFS and EC. Interior BC is also picking up respectable scraps.
Yeah that one next week has upgraded well on both models. It was but a shower on EC last week. But to play devils advocate it does peak a little early so there's some warm air in the mix so maybe marginal below ~1200m for Whistler's region.
Fantastic duration though!
Screen Shot 2019-01-04 at 5.21.06 pm.png


It's all good fun, a seasonal forecast. The patterns just turned closer to Nina for a while, that is all.
I hear ya.
Observationally, the PV has been in flux for a month now, nothing overly strong and established so we're seeing a good spread of winter system across the Northern Hemi on the whole - that said I reckon the US Rockies & interior are being short changed ATM.
There's loads of sources written in DEC being turned on their head right now, I am not specifically directing my post at you mate.

THIS is doing a whole lot better than what was penned HERE & HERE to name a few...
 
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