USA North America Weather 2018/19

Jellybeans

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Yeah that one next week has upgraded well on both models. It was but a shower on EC last week. But to play devils advocate it does peak a little early so there's some warm air in the mix so maybe marginal below ~1200m for Whistler's region.
Fantastic duration though!
Screen Shot 2019-01-04 at 5.21.06 pm.png



I hear ya.
Observationally, the PV has been in flux for a month now, nothing overly strong and established so we're seeing a good spread of winter system across the Northern Hemi on the whole - that said I reckon the US Rockies & interior are being short changed ATM.
There's loads of sources written in DEC being turned on their head right now, I am not specifically directing my post at you mate.

THIS is doing a whole lot better than what was penned HERE & HERE to name a few...
Yeah fair enough, all good. The PV has been not overly strong, and now we have an SSW. It's also not very coupled with the SPV and TPV levels, so it will be interesting to see why.

I was just noting that the more Nina-esque ENSO atmospheric state was largely to blame for the shift in the jetstream towards the PNW/BC, rather than Cali. That will be changing over the month.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Strat Warming (SSW) event evident on on JMA's plots, resulting in the break down and displacement of the Northern PV.
In short, we are seeing -'ve Zonal Winds in the strat, which could spell a reset of a lot of the block patterns we've seen in the Pacific & Atlantic over the past fortnight.
IMO expect more range in warm/cold snap systems through the mid-latitudes - including North America as below.
chk_t10_nh.gif

pole10_nh.gif


A frigid system in the East of the US looks to mark a shift in the pattern, next week. Solid -'ive anoms looking likely from Friday.
High establishing itself over Pac Nor-West, circa the start of next week.
 

Fast Eddie

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3-4.5 feet of new snow for Mammoth, storm total.
When it dumps in Mammoth it really dumps. Utah copping it too with Snowbird and Alta all time yesterday.

More snow coming for Whistler this week but slightly warmer so mid mountain snow level. Looks to continue on and off for the following week too.
 
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bondibob

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Wondered what the result of an -AO and SSWs on west coast/BC?

Is this a good set up for potential in the long term?
 

Jellybeans

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Wondered what the result of an -AO and SSWs on west coast/BC?

Is this a good set up for potential in the long term?
Not so good for the West Coast/BC. The second half of Jan and first week or two of Feb are expected to be good for the Eastern US. The SSW itself is still pretty slow in downwelling though....
 
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bondibob

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Not so good for the West Coast/BC. The second half of Jan and first week or two of Feb are expected to be good for the Eastern US. The SSW itself is still pretty slow in downwelling though....

Any significant update as to whistler arrive 28th for 10 days. Hoping for at least a few powder days

Go
 

Jellybeans

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Any significant update as to whistler arrive 28th for 10 days. Hoping for at least a few powder days

Go
The vibe is for the Eastern US to receive most of the cold and snow risks for the last week of Jan and First week of Feb. GFS shows a break for BC, from 23rd of Jan to the 28th/29th, and a few scenarios in the extended range at the end of the month. At the moment, I am busy during the day tomorrow, but I am going to do a blog "blitz" on the weekend, so more extended thoughts then.
 

bondibob

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The vibe is for the Eastern US to receive most of the cold and snow risks for the last week of Jan and First week of Feb. GFS shows a break for BC, from 23rd of Jan to the 28th/29th, and a few scenarios in the extended range at the end of the month. At the moment, I am busy during the day tomorrow, but I am going to do a blog "blitz" on the weekend, so more extended thoughts then.
I seen a few of the 384 maps but way to far down the track. I assume 5 day rule in bc before any confidence in out comes
 

bondibob

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I seen a few of the 384 maps but way to far down the track. I assume 5 day rule in bc before any confidence in out comes
Oh thanks by the way jelly.. always appreciate your input. I miss not going to japan this year. Way more people seem invested in that forum.
 

POW Hungry

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Any significant update as to whistler arrive 28th for 10 days. Hoping for at least a few powder days

Go
It looks to be a case of 'shoulda been here last week' by the time you get there.
This weekend looks to provide a ~20cm top up, followed by a follow-up moderate system Tuesday (22nd). The latter looks to have some good moisture transport by Tuesday. Potentially upwards of 25-30cm is possible in the Garabaldi/Whistler region IMO.
I personally think you'll see many a blue bird days on a plentiful base for West Coastal BC, throughout your timeframe. Largely a result of stubborn Northern Pacific High anchored somewhere over OR/WA.

IMHO you're lucky to not be heading East where the PV looks to establish a solid UL fetch directing a series of cold frigid systems, and largely dry air, into the Eastern States of the US and Canada - Looking very unpleasant for the last week of Jan out East. This is supported by both EC & GFS.
gfs_Tz10_nhem_21.png
 
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Jellybeans

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It looks to be a case of 'shoulda been here last week' by the time you get there.
This weekend looks to provide a ~20cm top up, followed by a follow-up moderate system Tuesday (22nd). The latter looks to have some good moisture transport by Tuesday. Potentially upwards of 25-30cm is possible in the Garabaldi/Whistler region IMO.
I personally think you'll see many a blue bird days on a plentiful base for West Coastal BC, throughout your timeframe. Largely a result of stubborn Northern Pacific High anchored somewhere over OR/WA.

IMHO you're lucky to not be heading East where the PV looks to establish a solid UL fetch directing a series of cold frigid systems, and largely dry air, into the Eastern States of the US and Canada - Looking very unpleasant for the last week of Jan out East. This is supported by both EC & GFS.
gfs_Tz10_nhem_21.png
But then the MJO and GWO comes into play.... they are talking big systems there in that last week of Jan. And of course as you note, still the effect of the +PNA for the Western US anyway.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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But then the MJO and GWO comes into play.... they are talking big systems there in that last week of Jan. And of course as you note, still the effect of the +PNA for the Western US anyway.
MJO is a great primer for high amplitude systems, but does corrolate to + moisture for these deep fetch systems.

Big systems yes, but intensely cold and dry for most of the Eastern States IMO.
With the exception of the cold outbreak on the 22/23rd next week it’s a lip-cracking week or two IMO. People will perish in these -I’ve anom temps unfortunately.
 

Jellybeans

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MJO is a great primer for high amplitude systems, but does corrolate to + moisture for these deep fetch systems.

Big systems yes, but intensely cold and dry for most of the Eastern States IMO.
With the exception of the cold outbreak on the 22/23rd next week it’s a lip-cracking week or two IMO. People will perish in these -I’ve anom temps unfortunately.
So the MJO should add moisture to the NE, and connect with the intense cold in a nor'easter.

I am not doubting that it will be very cold and dry at times, the two come together. But there is potential for some big deep lows bringing snowfall to the East Coast.

Impacts down the line of a +NAMT and later the +EAMT will bring a very conducive environment to low development and snowfall in the East.
1719294449_17.1_19mt.PNG.63bb632da648077276c95f2120cb91a6.PNG
 

FourSquare04

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Got a mate in Whistler right now.

No reports yet but I would imagine that's because they aren't getting any snow. A check of their daily report indicates they have had about 20cm in the last week......

@POW_hungry any big storms brewing on the horizon to hit there?
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Got a mate in Whistler right now.

No reports yet but I would imagine that's because they aren't getting any snow. A check of their daily report indicates they have had about 20cm in the last week......

@POW_hungry any big storms brewing on the horizon to hit there?
Tuesday (next 48 hours) sees a good low make landfall on the Pac NW And SW BC. Not a lot beyond that though. On the brightside, it’s got some good depth on it with virtually all terrain open.
 

Jellybeans

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https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2019/01/north-america-on-long-term-22nd-jan.html
My latest take on the long term of North American weather

My conclusions:

"So IMO, the BC/PNW (+ Tahoe and Inland PNW) should see a good period from the 30th Jan to the 10th of Feb. Then the focus shifts south to CO/UT/AZ/NM from the 10th onwards, however as the month progresses there may be a strong +PNA ridge in the West. The Eastern US sees a relaxation (I won't call it a proper break, because systems can still happen) from the 4th to 10th Feb, and then a good period for snowfall (probably more than the current short term forecast) until the end of Feb."


More on the GWO, NAO, AO and the MJO, plus the model outlook in the link above.
 

Bogan Daddy

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Any significant update as to whistler arrive 28th for 10 days. Hoping for at least a few powder days

Go
got back last friday. not great I am afraid. rained to 1600m first 2 days, cleared and we had no snow and big inversions. lots of ice around the place, lots of changing snow. The terrain was great as were the views. make sure you eat at the rimrock cafe good luck.
 

Fast Eddie

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got back last friday. not great I am afraid. rained to 1600m first 2 days, cleared and we had no snow and big inversions. lots of ice around the place, lots of changing snow. The terrain was great as were the views. make sure you eat at the rimrock cafe good luck.
Looking pretty good for tomorrow though. Probably a foot of fresh
4A496713-0026-4C3E-9959-96A556C7B292.png
up top
 
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FourSquare04

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That's the risk you take with Whistler - can luck out and get good freezing levels & good snow, but can also have bad luck and get rain, rain, rain. Pretty bad luck to get freezing levels as high as 1600m in the middle of January though :(
 

bondibob

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My 10 days starts on Monday. Not overall concerned about what happens Witt the weather, put obviously keen for at least 2 or 3 powder/fresh snow days. I’ll report from the hill.

It’s going to be fun exploring regardless.

Thanks jelly and POW for the updates
 

bondibob

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Hard packed two days in whistler. Snow is a great condition tho top to bottom. Can’t complain at all. Very surprised by the place really.
I love it here, seems like snow in the forecast for Thursday and Friday. Got cat skiing on Friday so hoping in dumps had on Friday.
 

absentskier

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Hard packed two days in whistler. Snow is a great condition tho top to bottom. Can’t complain at all. Very surprised by the place really.
I love it here, seems like snow in the forecast for Thursday and Friday. Got cat skiing on Friday so hoping in dumps had on Friday.
What are you surprised at?
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Categorically PUKING in Mammoth tonight:
2019-02-03_14-10-03.png

Sierra Nevada's will see upwards of 5-6 feet out of this system.
Fall rates are easily in the 2-3 inches per hour tonight and tomorrow night.
nam3km_asnow_swus_61.png
 
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Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
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Categorically PUKING in Mammoth tonight:
2019-02-03_14-10-03.png

Sierra Nevada's will see upwards of 5-6 feet out of this system.
Fall rates are easily in the 2-3 inches per hour tonight and tomorrow night.
nam3km_asnow_swus_61.png
Yeah a perfectly placed low in tie with all the added westerly momentum around.

IMG_6324.PNG

Just the 10 day forecast to visualise how much snow is falling at Lake Tahoe, more on the peaks.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Not sure how they got any lifts spinning but Mammoth has picked up 46-62” in the last 72 hours. Still using heavy machinery in the village square to remove snow (midday local time)
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Same old story in Mammoth today with another puking over night...
Now it’s the Rockies turn, with J Hole reporting 3 feet in two days. And you can bet your bottom dollar is blower powder over Mammoths. What a system.
 

absentskier

Smug bozo
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Jun 10, 2010
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Same old story in Mammoth today with another puking over night...
Now it’s the Rockies turn, with J Hole reporting 3 feet in two days. And you can bet your bottom dollar is blower powder over Mammoths. What a system.
It’s nuts. Mammoth has a 5 metre base at the summit!
 

Donzah

Formerly know as Aldi whorehouse.
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I've got a mate heading over soon.
Doing the SF Tahoe mammoth LA loop.

I said the i80 and 395 may be a bit interesting
 
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Jellybeans

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Here is some more advanced discussion based on Eastern US Weather(touching on Western US weather too), I was having that may be of interest of people here:
  1. From about now until the 16/17 Feb, we should see a +EAMT produced pattern. The jet starts extended according to the graphic I posted earlier on the 12th. We are currently in a -EAMT, so the extension impacts start within days of the start of the +EAMT period. The PNA impacts should start to be felt from the 18th or so, and continue for a 10 day period. This should push the Aleutian ridge more into the -EPO domain, more so than the NWP forecast IMO.
IMG_6337.PNG


2. EPS shows a big fat low developing around the 16th, descending over the Mongolian ranges and into the Himalayas, fully disturbing the +EAMT by the 18th. This will weaken the push of the ridge into the -EPO domain, but I still think it should be further West than it is in this chart. The messy low situation on the West Coast is probably going to be maintained, so we need that low off Labrador to move further southwest in longer term runs. That would further allow the gradient curated -NAO (via the MSLP level Low over Siberia). This is indicating that the processes that curate the cold stable Siberian High are starting to break down or otherwise known as the beginning of the end for winter. However I do believe there is still plenty of room for more ridging in Siberia, it is just winter is starting to lose it's feet. Don't dismiss winter for North America yet though, as the breakdown of this winter stability can curate some unstable patterns that generate big winter storms.

IMG_6338.PNG


3. Overall I think the Western US will do well over the next 10 days, but so will the Eastern US will still see the conveyor belt of storms behind it, on the 12th, 16th and 20th pretty roughly. The last week of February is the "peak" of this particular period, but I see no reason to discount potential for winter storms in the first two weeks of March. But after then, I think we are pretty much out (no random 12" early April storms, as one would expect). The next three weeks from now are what we are looking for. I think it is a pretty good indicator to see plenty of options, into the reality that tropical forcing in particular is driving a lot of this pattern. The extratropics will cooperate until the end of the month, and we could see a -AO/-NAO develop by then, but it really is on the back of the MJO and the WWB was getting very strong in the West-Central Pacific in the 150E-180 region, on the back of a ER wave, with the MJO and general Niño like state interact with it in the background.




IMG_6341.GIF





FT is currently increasing, which is an indicating of poleward propagation of +FT anomalies, but I wouldn't be surprised with a bit more of a jump, although I would prefer the WWB a bit further to the West for maximum +FT effect. These are improving signals, but it isn't like there isn't already an abundance of westerly momentum in the atmosphere anyway.
 
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