North America Weather 2018/19

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Wardy, Aug 27, 2018.

  1. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Yeah fair enough, all good. The PV has been not overly strong, and now we have an SSW. It's also not very coupled with the SPV and TPV levels, so it will be interesting to see why.

    I was just noting that the more Nina-esque ENSO atmospheric state was largely to blame for the shift in the jetstream towards the PNW/BC, rather than Cali. That will be changing over the month.
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Whistler looking the tits today:
     
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    2 feet of snow at Mammoth & counting....
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Strat Warming (SSW) event evident on on JMA's plots, resulting in the break down and displacement of the Northern PV.
    In short, we are seeing -'ve Zonal Winds in the strat, which could spell a reset of a lot of the block patterns we've seen in the Pacific & Atlantic over the past fortnight.
    IMO expect more range in warm/cold snap systems through the mid-latitudes - including North America as below.

    [​IMG]

    A frigid system in the East of the US looks to mark a shift in the pattern, next week. Solid -'ive anoms looking likely from Friday.
    High establishing itself over Pac Nor-West, circa the start of next week.
     
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    3-4.5 feet of new snow for Mammoth, storm total.
     
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  6. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie Hard Yards

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    When it dumps in Mammoth it really dumps. Utah copping it too with Snowbird and Alta all time yesterday.

    More snow coming for Whistler this week but slightly warmer so mid mountain snow level. Looks to continue on and off for the following week too.
     
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  7. snowtyres

    snowtyres Hard Yards
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  8. bondibob

    bondibob Hard Yards
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    Wondered what the result of an -AO and SSWs on west coast/BC?

    Is this a good set up for potential in the long term?
     
  9. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Not so good for the West Coast/BC. The second half of Jan and first week or two of Feb are expected to be good for the Eastern US. The SSW itself is still pretty slow in downwelling though....
     
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  10. bondibob

    bondibob Hard Yards
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    Any significant update as to whistler arrive 28th for 10 days. Hoping for at least a few powder days

    Go
     
  11. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    The vibe is for the Eastern US to receive most of the cold and snow risks for the last week of Jan and First week of Feb. GFS shows a break for BC, from 23rd of Jan to the 28th/29th, and a few scenarios in the extended range at the end of the month. At the moment, I am busy during the day tomorrow, but I am going to do a blog "blitz" on the weekend, so more extended thoughts then.
     
  12. bondibob

    bondibob Hard Yards
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    I seen a few of the 384 maps but way to far down the track. I assume 5 day rule in bc before any confidence in out comes
     
  13. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    It depends. For exact scenarios for sure. Trend can be predicted further out.
     
  14. bondibob

    bondibob Hard Yards
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    Oh thanks by the way jelly.. always appreciate your input. I miss not going to japan this year. Way more people seem invested in that forum.
     
  15. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Certainly more of a vibe there, but doesn't mean Whistler/NA isn't good.
     
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  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    It looks to be a case of 'shoulda been here last week' by the time you get there.
    This weekend looks to provide a ~20cm top up, followed by a follow-up moderate system Tuesday (22nd). The latter looks to have some good moisture transport by Tuesday. Potentially upwards of 25-30cm is possible in the Garabaldi/Whistler region IMO.
    I personally think you'll see many a blue bird days on a plentiful base for West Coastal BC, throughout your timeframe. Largely a result of stubborn Northern Pacific High anchored somewhere over OR/WA.

    IMHO you're lucky to not be heading East where the PV looks to establish a solid UL fetch directing a series of cold frigid systems, and largely dry air, into the Eastern States of the US and Canada - Looking very unpleasant for the last week of Jan out East. This is supported by both EC & GFS.
    [​IMG]
     
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  17. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    But then the MJO and GWO comes into play.... they are talking big systems there in that last week of Jan. And of course as you note, still the effect of the +PNA for the Western US anyway.
     
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    MJO is a great primer for high amplitude systems, but does corrolate to + moisture for these deep fetch systems.

    Big systems yes, but intensely cold and dry for most of the Eastern States IMO.
    With the exception of the cold outbreak on the 22/23rd next week it’s a lip-cracking week or two IMO. People will perish in these -I’ve anom temps unfortunately.
     
  19. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    So the MJO should add moisture to the NE, and connect with the intense cold in a nor'easter.

    I am not doubting that it will be very cold and dry at times, the two come together. But there is potential for some big deep lows bringing snowfall to the East Coast.

    Impacts down the line of a +NAMT and later the +EAMT will bring a very conducive environment to low development and snowfall in the East.