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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Born2ski, Aug 12, 2016.
Enjoy, perfect timing, should be all time.
Uh, oh! 24-46" (60cm down bottom/120cm up top) reported in Mammoth in the last 24 hours.
Pac system on the weekend looks very similar to the current one (albeit warmer with it's pineapple origins). It's only just coming into range for the mesoscale models and looking massive again. Mammoth stands to receive up to 10-15 feet over the week.
I also see some rain in there on Sunday as well.
Some crazy totals already stacking up.
With another round to come its going to be deeeeep
My brother reports 40 inches in the past few days at Sugarloaf in Maine.
That's some serious snowmaking!
Lucky for that
More to come I suspect.
It's supposed to do 10-20" overnight here in Aspen. Nothing like Tahoe or Mammoth, but light and fluffy!
Northstar, Tahoe CA. Baking Marshmallows overnight with 18" (46cm) of fresh.
5-8" has fallen here in Snowmass. I need to get out ASAP
40-84" for Mammoth in 48 hours (storm total). Looking very Japan-like, minus the the light/dry. The 'gram is lighting up with pretty amazing images and videos already. Wow.
Well light and dry powder at Aspen. Amazing!!!
Yeh, it's east coast I know. It's actually a really good hill with fresh snow on it. 860m's of vert, all fall line. I wouldn't travel halfway round the world just ski there but for those that live nearby it's one of the best options in that region.
On of the top 6 on the East Coast, def agree. I just couldn't help myself!
Sierra Nevada well over 72" in the next 10 days
40" for Utah mountains and Jackson Hole area in Wyoming.
PNW does well too at about 50" in parts of the Coastal ranges.
Been light on this week with snow in Fernie but has kept very dry an cold so the snow from previous dumps has kept very well cat skiing for a few days has proven that with some very nice dry untouched an deep stashes still left. Mostly skiing at -20c so been a great test of the warm kit! But beautiful blue bird days an no wind. Looking forward to some good top ups this coming weekend and into next week. The base has held well.
Just a reminder to giving seasonal outlook advice... This from 26NOV.
Obviously they're racking up one of their best starts in the last 10 or so years. Gotta back your calls up with facts IMO.
Definitive post about weather....at your peril
Yes, yes, yes Gotta do better. Seasonal Prediction changes all the time, It got PNW right and California wrong... and you really only get the facts when it falls
No intention of singling you out Jelly, your contributions are solid and consistent! I am just cautious of those who are (overly) reliant on recommendations & advice of this forum. I, for one, like the reputation this forum has amongst all snow enthusiasts.
Pretty tough to predict crazy back to back to back rivers like the Serra's are coping right now in fairness.
Back on topic, wow it's going to be tough to complete the JMT in July this year.
That said, the seasonal report of the Sierra's suggests the season is currently sitting well-below average HERE, albeit reported a day ahead of the two big dumps, this week.
Yes so cold today in Fernie that even my phone told me it was too cold after I took it out of my pocket to take some pics.
Found a little untouched pow at the top of Currie bowl.
Been pretty chilly in SP too. About to return to something more reasonable.
Mammoth Pass - GFS meteogram for short range precip totals still going large. I am to lazy to total them but 7-10 feet of fresh by Monday is not out of the question.
Wow, Mammoth (and also Tahoe to a lesser extent) getting absolutely smashed with snow.
About time, those guys really need it. They've suffered long enough at the hands of El Nino
Is that the Cat Skiing to the skiiers left of Fernie's Easter bowl? Forget the name.....
What are the temps like there? Surely 'light and dry' there would be what around -10 to -15 compared to 'light and dry' in Oz at like -2 hahaha
I remember being on the hill at Fernie in -20 with a F'ing cold wind and that wasn't fun. Kept a lot of people off the hill but in reality wasn't really worth it unless there was mimimum 15cm+ of fresh, or you're only there for a week and trying to milk every minute
Yeah I saw the temps rising a bit, if they get rain then a freeze, that massive base will stick until July/August at this rate
-21 Celsius, not a cloud in the sky.
What, like kicking horse?
What's the depth like at SP ATM?
107cm mid mountain, 141cm up top. Or close enough.
Depth is not fantastic, skiing is alright without being shite or outstanding. A bit of fresh will help.
As always, depth doesn't mean much as long as the rocks are covered.
Nah I think your referring to Island lake, I used FWA:
Bit cheaper without the bling of island lake but great terrain around $430 for the day with pick up / drop off. Average about 10 runs in a day.
Fark, this one is mapping out a beast for California & Tahoe; tonight through Tuesday. Look at that fall rate Sunday eve (Local), 8-10cm per hour thanks to a split in the jetstream giving a pronounced embedded trough/frontal boundary.
GFS still going for some rain in the mix late-morning Sunday, whilst EC says snow right through. Depths will be difficult to forecast/report as high winds expected during the bulk of the heavy falls. Village could see 7-10 feet, upper mountain may see upwards of 15-20ft drifts IMO.
Another top up due next Thursday PM, via another Pac Low - maybe 20-24 in (~ 0.5m) due in that one.
This equates to ~350mm of precip for the Sierras, or roughly speaking +3.5m of snowfall by Monday AM.
So more snow in 2 days than Buller gets in a whole season. Honey we're moving to Tahoe!
Except that whole last five seasons or so thing
I'll move north when La Niña comes.
I just revisited freeze levels, could be pretty dire on Sunday for much of the Tahoe resorts. Big 'ole pineapple for them potentially.
It's possible to have too much snow.
I was in Mammoth in Feb 2009 (i think) just after a 6 ft dump and it was a shitshow. Mammoth got 11 ft that February.
Access was a mess, half the mountain staff were digging out lifts and stuff, everything was delayed, avi danger closed runs, the stupid amount of snow flattened out many of the interesting bits, and Sierra snow isn't the light fluffy stuff of Colorado.
Sure it beats 'not enough snow' but an uber dump of snow isn't as good as it sounds
The by-product of deep spring base and amount of precip. to the Sierras/state of California is the more astonishing thing for this system IMO.
Hey @Zeroz - was it Feb 2010 maybe? I did my first CO season Jan - April 2010 and whilst it was epic I remember Cali got slammed with a couple of those super systems and there was one in particular that basically shut everything down. One memory I had was Ski patrol were basically having to go out and rescue everybody it was that deep.
Cab driver in LA says it hasnt been this wet or cold for over 5 years
Nice Blog entry on this event.
Nice to see you back.
The jetstream is forecast to stick around California for the most part. California is going to just keep getting hit IMO if this pattern continues.
Yep that's it, Island Lake Lodge. Never went there, was tempted. Wouldn't mind a trip to Baldface now but that's closer to Nelson and I'm sure you'd have to book very well in advance thanks to our man T-Rice