Hi all , have noticed warmer temps forecast for next week in BC. We will be in Revelstoke and Big White. Is there any chance of the forecast improving. Thanks
It's a risky system due in the next coupla days, it's a big ole mid-winter pineapple but I think BW/Revelstoke BC will do ok. Coastal resorts will suffer a bit before Thursday eve when the cooler air arrives. Next Thursday is ages away but I see that one presenting similar outcomes.
So an update on the North American situation. An MJO Phase 8 is currently forecast to be fairly strong on several models. An MJO Phase 8 may introduce troughing on the East Coast and high pressure on the West Coast. GEFS shows an entrance to Phase 8 and an extreme weakening during Phase 8. EPS shows a less extreme weakening, starting in Phase 8 and completing in Phase 1. This guidance is for beyond the 12th of Feb. BOM POAMA, JMA and UKMO suggest a strong Phase 8 and weakening in Phase 1/2. This assessment is based on RMM index, GEFS OLR maps don't show such a strong Phase 8 MJO. Some words from Judah Cohen So possibly less snow for the Rockies.
No skiing today. Tahoe is shut! Well you could have paid US$159 (134 for old farts) for a couple of lifts on the lower mountain, but that's just about it. High winds everywhere, and the snow has been bucketing down here at Heavenly for the past couple of hours. So far the snow is still heavy wet Sierra cement. Fingers crossed for tomorrow.
Interesting... A wind storm (perhaps the same one??) has also crippled resorts in ID & WY. Jackson Hole is closed until further noticed after high voltage lines were brought down. HERE.
Looks like a pineapple on the 15/16th followed by frequent snow top ups after that. My honest opinion? US & Canada resorts (west) are with 1-2 weeks of their season peak, I think. Some big blocking patterns at the moment with a weakening polar vortex, and some poor jetstreams - compared to last month.
Anyone wanting to know more about the cleanup work in Jackson hole: https://liftblog.com/2017/02/11/chronicles-from-a-crazy-week-in-jackson-hole/
Speaking of Jackson just made a diversion of sorts on the way to Salt lake now the weather has cleared and everything is back on deck. Icy as in town but hopefully up top hasent suffered to much from the last 2 days of blue bird. Weather and condition reports to come but with in excess of 30inchs since the lifts last spun it could be a bit of fun.
Thanks for sharing. A resort has paid a big price for not having power redundancies. This could have been much worse if it had happened during lift ops hours. Fatalities may have been likely had this been the case. I suspect state and local council have intervened here with having Lower Valley Energy re-instate the power in 4 days. 26 Power poles in 4 days? Into frozen land... That's a huge effort.
Jackson running at full steam today. Waiting in line at 720 and still only made 3rd tram. Either way got some nice hike to lines but the snow was weird. A bit upside down and sun effected by 1130. Either way a great way to end a USA mission. Touring tomorrow should be epic on north facing slopes.
Next Tuesday/Wednesday sees another cold core low hitting PNW & Coastal BC. Whistler and the likes should see 15-20" or so out of it.
Has been dumping at the East Coast all week and forecast into the next week or so. Related to Phase 8/1 MJO.
I am unconvinced. MJO influences monsoonal regions, these are cold core systems with Arctic origins - the correlation negligible IMO.
Climatology for Phase 8 MJO in February. Notice big juicy low centered on Eastern USA. This is the current situation. Lows centered on Alaska and Eastern USA. High over Europe, contrary to Climatology though.
This is when all the other factors come into play. MJO causes blocking in the Western US and the jetstream speeds up and hits the North Eastern USA. This could be the effect of the -AO. But moving on... Later in the week, the jetstream dumps into California. And causes widespread rainfall and snowfall in the Sierras too. And a fair bit of the Oroville catchment too.
Perhaps you are suggesting the same thing, but a strong MJO during phase 8/1 correlates to colder, drier conditions in Jan, Feb, Mar (JFM) as below, hence why I think the recent snowfalls on the East Coast aren't correlating to the current MJO wave but more influenced by the -AO, at-least as far as the East Coast US goes: REF: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#composite
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au/2017/02/north-america-on-long-term-19th-feb.html My latest long term outlook for West Coast USA/Canada.
Fresh tracks @ Banff resorts today with snow forecast to continue all week. Looking good in the Rockies.
Plenty of rain below 2200m. Mammoth looks like it'll do well. Tahoe will be a wash out... Resorts up high might be spared in Tahoe though.
Looks like i picked the right year for a few late late season days @ mammoth! May is still a long way off, lets hope it stops co ming by then else it might all be rain
It's cold and the promised goods haven't arrived - just as you said with a few cm of super dry here and there - nice for fresh corduroy and a little play out back but no deep fresh stashes ATM.
@Mctavish it needs to be warmer than -15 for a decent dump to fall. They typically get good dumps during March in Banff when funnily enough it starts to warm up (which isn't far away now)
Fizz here in Banff and surrounding resorts. Initial forecast was for 20cm. Think Sunshine ended up with 5cm and LL with 2cm. Here in Banff we would have had 1cm max. Didn't get any fresh this year, but the clear weather has been good. Here's hoping for a few Spring falls over East Coast now I can chase.
Not surprising, Fernie can do really well from these sporadic / isolated falls. Fernie Snow Valley just seems to suck it all in and the Grizz delivers the goods more often than not
Unfortunately i left Montana a week or so ago and the infamous Bridger bowl cloud finally arrived dropping 6 feet of blower! Ah well maybe next time. Ha ha
Fernie copped a nice late season dump, would have been locals and seasonal blow ins only to enjoy it - lucky ducks Over 1m in the last week
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/no-butterflies-just-tropical-rainfall Interesting article into the effect of MJO on Snowfall and Weather across the US.
My latest long term snow forecast. https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au/2017/03/north-america-on-long-term-15th-march.html
Looks to be just the timing was spot on with the mjo over the W-hem. A little late bu....t So there is no confusion POW is correct this low came off the continent and bombed. It was not the classic low that sweeps in from the Atlantic with a negative tilt. The low was not spawned by the enriched moisture but it did get boosted. .
Yes it came out of the South which suprised me. My Daughter is in Baltimore , so I have been weather watching a little out of general interest , rather than snow biz. She has had last 2 days off school ..."snow days ". Has been some carnage up and adjacent the Eastern seaboard. More to come this weekend tho not quite as far South as Stella.
My facebook feed is full of late winter powder runs from Revie and Kicking Horse. One day, the whole season for me... Or seasons...
While we clamber over each other for 10-15cm in the Aussie alps this weekend, spare a thought for the Sierras who stand to receive up to 36" (90cm) of new snow by this weekend... This adds to Mammoth's 170-330" current base. lordy lordy... #atmosphericriver
Unbelievable season they have had this year. Wonder if it will be the best ever on record? I saw that they are going to be open until July, which is not uncommon, but at this rate there will be snow until next season unless they get torrential rain!
