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NSW/ACT Northern Tablelands - Cold Fronts with Snow Chances Winter 2020

Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by Paul Cirrus, May 1, 2020.

  1. Paul Cirrus

    Paul Cirrus Early Days

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    Hi all, i had this thread going in the wetherzone for years so thought I would bring it here.
    I think it may just be a good year this year with enso conditions. Any snow there today ?
     
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  2. oldgeezer

    oldgeezer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Same height ASL as Thredbo village so hope it gets some. Walcha too maybe?
     
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good thread. What are your thoughts on expending it 'Northern Tablealands'? Might have a bit more reach and interest.

    Anyhow, looking dry North of Cesnock. It's best chance of polar moisture was probably last night.
    10-12mm for the region so a good drop considering it was frontal.
    I doubt it saw flakage though.
     
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  4. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Do people still ring the guy at the Guyra petrol station for obs or do they have a webcam these days?
     
  5. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    What about Kaputar?
     
  6. Greysrigging

    Greysrigging One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Some old Guyra pics ( End of June 1977 )
     
  7. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler One of Us

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    Ummm, you do know that Thredbo Village is at 36° S, whereas Guyra is at 30° S, correct? Latitude makes all the difference in winter; Guyra's average winter max is 10° C-ish, which equates to about 450 m AMSL at 36° S on the windward slopes (even Rosewood, NSW @ 460 m has a colder max than Guyra @ 1,330 m)…a massive difference!

    As for Guyra's snow chances—I'm not expecting anything more than a dusting there all year, as usual. Too far north for anything substantial.
     
  8. oldgeezer

    oldgeezer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    And? Nothing new there.

    It is always a big deal on the Nth Tablelands to get a bit of snow and if it gets any it can only be in conditions like these. The road being closed in 1984 up the escapment from Pt MacQ by snow close to Walcha still sticks in the memory.

    Don't rain on the parade.
     
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  9. Paul Cirrus

    Paul Cirrus Early Days

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    This thread mainly for the northern half of nsw towards the coast and the se qld's who go to visit. Doesn't matter what lattitude its on or where it is. It is the same height as thredbo village but yeah much further north but it gets more than a dusting most years. I was there 2 years ago and highway shut. Massive snow. Can happen 10 times a year to twice. Better than any major town that far north. I haven't bothered with stanthorpe one i discovered guys, absolutely great 5 hour drive from brisbane and very popular when it on. I think this year will be good. Forecast for this town gives a good indication for the surrounding so i'll keep the name.
     
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  10. INDI

    INDI Hard Yards

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    From memory the Mt Dowe AWS on the Mt Kaputar massif is about 1460m asl, not the highest point which is about 1524m asl. Stunning part of NSW.
    A couple of interesting things about Mt Kaputar - the most northerly stand of snow gums in Oz, also lore has it that, being on the edge of the western plains, you can see 10% of the area of NSW from the highest geodetic trig point.
     
  11. INDI

    INDI Hard Yards

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    It would be great to have an aws at Point Lookout, between Ebor and Wollomombi Falls. Altitude there is 1575m asl, with insane views down the Bellinger Valley out over the Pacific Ocean.
    One of the better lookouts in the country, up in the snow gums.
     
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  12. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Grumblebum Ski Pass: Gold

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    I worked in Armidale from July to July a few decades ago. 2 or 3 times there was enough snow to be extremely annoying but not useful. It's like snow on Barrington Tops. No surprise but not frequent. The westerlies howling down Beardy St mall is more bitter memory.
     
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  13. oldgeezer

    oldgeezer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    My favourite Guyra story back when I was a kid was about the panther people would spot from time to time. It was a bit scary those stories but we lived an hour away so it was not too much of a worry.
     
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  14. INDI

    INDI Hard Yards

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    Like the famous Blue Mountains black panther - with multiple, multiple sightings recorded by Rex Gilroy
     
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  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    You Guyra & NT folk may be in for a surprise Monday night, Tuesday AM.
    30% chance of snow above 1000 IMO.
     
  16. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Regional forecast giving you a shot @ being on the money.


     
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  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM now going for 1100m snow in Northern Tablelands.
    Gently gently they're getting there.
     
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Radar showing a blob of moisture inbound to Armidale/Guyra right now. 20-30mins away.
    Armidale sitting on 0.8°C.

    Both should see a snow/sleet shower shortly IMO.
     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  21. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Poor kids still going to school up there. We used to get a day off when this happened.
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, they haven’t had enough time off this year or anything aye ;)
     
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  23. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I can assure you that home learning is not time off for anyone involved!
     
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  24. warrie

    warrie One of Us

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    Link to Mt Dowe webcam. https://ozforecast.com.au/cgi-bin/weatherstation.cgi?station=11215

    No snow at present as per chat re snow at Guyra 2nd June...... W
     
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  25. WilliamVC

    WilliamVC First Runs

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    beautifully shot!
     
  26. AnnerleyX1

    AnnerleyX1 Early Days

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    Seems like a pretty good chance of snow about the NT’s next Monday afternoon/night and into Tuesday morning? Cutoff low going on a QLD-bound adventure purely to piss off everyone waiting for snow down south.

    Might head down if it keeps looking good.
     
  27. Paul Cirrus

    Paul Cirrus Early Days

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    Um if your heading from queensland, borders are closed.
     
  28. Danial Benson

    Danial Benson First Runs

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    Hey guys, hows it looking for monday / tuesday
     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Monday night might see snow above 1200m, but Tuesday 1-5am is the window of opportunity for snow above 1000m on the NT's IMO.

    Moisture however may be an issue.
    Brief showery stuff. Unfortunately I can't see much chance of accumulation.
     
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  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    This trough band forms the best chance of snow for the NT's IMO.
    Due around 1-3am (tonight) tomorrow AM.
     
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  31. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I would have thought the cloud band hitting now would be snow up high. 7 degrees at Tamworth (400m).
     
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sounding for Armidale 10am.
    FL: 1500m
    With these sorta upper level temps you'd expect snow down to ~1200m IMO.
    Marginal at best for NT's.
    [​IMG]

    Note: Armidale currently 4.1ºC (1000m ASL)
     
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  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some instability floating around in that trough which is now circa Griffith.
    Looks like one TS with deep convective bands on the IR Sat this arvo. Still a chance IMO.
     
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  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    +5C and precip registering @ Armidale just now.
     
  35. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    No they are not!!
     
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  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mount Dowe, Kaputar with a light dusting this morning:
     
  37. AnnerleyX1

    AnnerleyX1 Early Days

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    Headed down, and yeah, just not enough moisture really. Some settled snow south of Walcha, and on and off showers of sleet and flakes all morning in Guyra but not enough to settle. Temperatures plenty cold enough (-1 to 1 C) but just weak bands of showers.
     
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  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bugger, yeah moisture was always going to be an issue unfortunately.
     
  39. chunky

    chunky Old n' Crusty

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    Anyone watching the forecast for Monday thru to early Tuesday?
     
  40. canestocks

    canestocks Hard Yards

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    Thought we had a chance on Monday o_O but it seems Tuesday is a better chance.

     
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  41. chunky

    chunky Old n' Crusty

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    At one stage the forecast was showing snow through the day around Guyra and down near Walcha but it has all changed now.
     
  42. canestocks

    canestocks Hard Yards

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  43. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    We used to glide out of Armidale airport. Coukd leave Tamworth on a beautiful sunny winter day to find a foot of snow on Armidale airport
     
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  44. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    My father was an engineer with the PMG. We used to camp at Kaputar in school holidays. It was a treat to go and watch TV in the repeater station. Lots of fond memories.
     
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  45. chunky

    chunky Old n' Crusty

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    Well meteye is showing more around Guyra for longer from tomorrow afternoon. Promising - cross fingers.
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah GFS upped the moisture on 00z. Fair chance of 2-4cm above 1100m IMO.
    Armidale might see some wintery mix flakes by around midday.
     
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  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's been snowing on Mount Dowe, Kaputar for much of today:
     
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  48. AnnerleyX1

    AnnerleyX1 Early Days

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    <1C at Armidale with precipitation recorded in the last hour.
     
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  49. warrie

    warrie One of Us

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    Not lore but Physics. 1524 m x 12.5 then get sq root gives distance to horizon in km. Gives 138 km. Then pi x 138 squared = about 60,000 sq km, NSW is 800,000 sq km so if land was flat in all directions from summit you could see 7.5 %. Too hilly to east but westward OK so maybe you can really see 5% of NSW.................w
     
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  50. chunky

    chunky Old n' Crusty

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    Sleeted quite heavily on the drive up from Armidale to Guyra about 4.30pm and huge flakes in Guyra for about 30mibs after 5. Settled down now but still lightly snowing.