Northern Tablelands Snow Chances Winter 2020

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Paul Cirrus, May 1, 2020.

  1. Paul Cirrus

    Paul Cirrus Early Days

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2019
    Messages:
    18
    Likes Received:
    78
    Location:
    Brisbane, Suburb is Windsor
    Hi all, i had this thread going in the wetherzone for years so thought I would bring it here.
    I think it may just be a good year this year with enso conditions. Any snow there today ?
     
    W0nkey D0nkey, INDI, whether and 3 others like this.
  2. oldgeezer

    oldgeezer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2016
    Messages:
    1,407
    Likes Received:
    1,350
    Location:
    Grandpa oh and computer programmer too.
    Same height ASL as Thredbo village so hope it gets some. Walcha too maybe?
     
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,813
    Likes Received:
    26,923
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Good thread. What are your thoughts on expending it 'Northern Tablealands'? Might have a bit more reach and interest.

    Anyhow, looking dry North of Cesnock. It's best chance of polar moisture was probably last night.
    10-12mm for the region so a good drop considering it was frontal.
    I doubt it saw flakage though.
     
    Donzah and piolet like this.
  4. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2000
    Messages:
    10,784
    Likes Received:
    818
    Location:
    Jimi on Weatherzone. Killara, Sydney
    Do people still ring the guy at the Guyra petrol station for obs or do they have a webcam these days?
     
  5. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2010
    Messages:
    615
    Likes Received:
    884
    Location:
    Redfern
    What about Kaputar?
     
  6. Greysrigging

    Greysrigging One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2019
    Messages:
    738
    Likes Received:
    2,312
    Location:
    Darwin
    Some old Guyra pics ( End of June 1977 )
     
  7. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2019
    Messages:
    315
    Likes Received:
    599
    Location:
    Maragle, NSW; 948 m AMSL; 35° 51’ 30.06” S
    Ummm, you do know that Thredbo Village is at 36° S, whereas Guyra is at 30° S, correct? Latitude makes all the difference in winter; Guyra's average winter max is 10° C-ish, which equates to about 450 m AMSL at 36° S on the windward slopes (even Rosewood, NSW @ 460 m has a colder max than Guyra @ 1,330 m)…a massive difference!

    As for Guyra's snow chances—I'm not expecting anything more than a dusting there all year, as usual. Too far north for anything substantial.
     
  8. oldgeezer

    oldgeezer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2016
    Messages:
    1,407
    Likes Received:
    1,350
    Location:
    Grandpa oh and computer programmer too.
    And? Nothing new there.

    It is always a big deal on the Nth Tablelands to get a bit of snow and if it gets any it can only be in conditions like these. The road being closed in 1984 up the escapment from Pt MacQ by snow close to Walcha still sticks in the memory.

    Don't rain on the parade.
     
    AshestoAshes, whether, Homer and 3 others like this.
  9. Paul Cirrus

    Paul Cirrus Early Days

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2019
    Messages:
    18
    Likes Received:
    78
    Location:
    Brisbane, Suburb is Windsor
    This thread mainly for the northern half of nsw towards the coast and the se qld's who go to visit. Doesn't matter what lattitude its on or where it is. It is the same height as thredbo village but yeah much further north but it gets more than a dusting most years. I was there 2 years ago and highway shut. Massive snow. Can happen 10 times a year to twice. Better than any major town that far north. I haven't bothered with stanthorpe one i discovered guys, absolutely great 5 hour drive from brisbane and very popular when it on. I think this year will be good. Forecast for this town gives a good indication for the surrounding so i'll keep the name.
     
    whether and INDI like this.
  10. INDI

    INDI Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 16, 2010
    Messages:
    65
    Likes Received:
    32
    Location:
    NSW northern rivers
    From memory the Mt Dowe AWS on the Mt Kaputar massif is about 1460m asl, not the highest point which is about 1524m asl. Stunning part of NSW.
    A couple of interesting things about Mt Kaputar - the most northerly stand of snow gums in Oz, also lore has it that, being on the edge of the western plains, you can see 10% of the area of NSW from the highest geodetic trig point.
     
    rocketboy and Untele-whippet like this.
  11. INDI

    INDI Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 16, 2010
    Messages:
    65
    Likes Received:
    32
    Location:
    NSW northern rivers
    It would be great to have an aws at Point Lookout, between Ebor and Wollomombi Falls. Altitude there is 1575m asl, with insane views down the Bellinger Valley out over the Pacific Ocean.
    One of the better lookouts in the country, up in the snow gums.
     
    Snow Blowey and Homer like this.
  12. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Grumblebum Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2014
    Messages:
    33,536
    Likes Received:
    30,741
    Location:
    Coastal suburban boonies.
    I worked in Armidale from July to July a few decades ago. 2 or 3 times there was enough snow to be extremely annoying but not useful. It's like snow on Barrington Tops. No surprise but not frequent. The westerlies howling down Beardy St mall is more bitter memory.
     
    INDI likes this.
  13. oldgeezer

    oldgeezer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2016
    Messages:
    1,407
    Likes Received:
    1,350
    Location:
    Grandpa oh and computer programmer too.
    My favourite Guyra story back when I was a kid was about the panther people would spot from time to time. It was a bit scary those stories but we lived an hour away so it was not too much of a worry.
     
    INDI likes this.
  14. INDI

    INDI Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 16, 2010
    Messages:
    65
    Likes Received:
    32
    Location:
    NSW northern rivers
    Like the famous Blue Mountains black panther - with multiple, multiple sightings recorded by Rex Gilroy
     
    oldgeezer likes this.
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,813
    Likes Received:
    26,923
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    You Guyra & NT folk may be in for a surprise Monday night, Tuesday AM.
    30% chance of snow above 1000 IMO.
     
  16. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Messages:
    644
    Likes Received:
    1,887
    Regional forecast giving you a shot @ being on the money.


     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,813
    Likes Received:
    26,923
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    BoM now going for 1100m snow in Northern Tablelands.
    Gently gently they're getting there.
     
    whether and oldgeezer like this.
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,813
    Likes Received:
    26,923
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Radar showing a blob of moisture inbound to Armidale/Guyra right now. 20-30mins away.
    Armidale sitting on 0.8°C.

    Both should see a snow/sleet shower shortly IMO.
     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,813
    Likes Received:
    26,923
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,813
    Likes Received:
    26,923
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
  21. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    75,156
    Likes Received:
    58,143
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    Poor kids still going to school up there. We used to get a day off when this happened.
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,813
    Likes Received:
    26,923
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Yeah, they haven’t had enough time off this year or anything aye ;)
     
    mick chopps likes this.
  23. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    75,156
    Likes Received:
    58,143
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    I can assure you that home learning is not time off for anyone involved!
     
    Swiss, Claude Cat and POW_hungry like this.
  24. warrie

    warrie Addicted

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2008
    Messages:
    476
    Likes Received:
    223
    Location:
    Sydney
    Link to Mt Dowe webcam. https://ozforecast.com.au/cgi-bin/weatherstation.cgi?station=11215

    No snow at present as per chat re snow at Guyra 2nd June...... W
     
    INDI and POW_hungry like this.
  25. WilliamVC

    WilliamVC First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2020
    Messages:
    1
    Likes Received:
    0
    beautifully shot!
     
  26. AnnerleyX1

    AnnerleyX1 First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2020
    Messages:
    5
    Likes Received:
    9
    Seems like a pretty good chance of snow about the NT’s next Monday afternoon/night and into Tuesday morning? Cutoff low going on a QLD-bound adventure purely to piss off everyone waiting for snow down south.

    Might head down if it keeps looking good.
     
  27. Paul Cirrus

    Paul Cirrus Early Days

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2019
    Messages:
    18
    Likes Received:
    78
    Location:
    Brisbane, Suburb is Windsor
    Um if your heading from queensland, borders are closed.
     
  28. Danial Benson

    Danial Benson First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2020
    Messages:
    1
    Likes Received:
    0
    Hey guys, hows it looking for monday / tuesday
     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,813
    Likes Received:
    26,923
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Monday night might see snow above 1200m, but Tuesday 1-5am is the window of opportunity for snow above 1000m on the NT's IMO.

    Moisture however may be an issue.
    Brief showery stuff. Unfortunately I can't see much chance of accumulation.
     
    INDI likes this.
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,813
    Likes Received:
    26,923
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    This trough band forms the best chance of snow for the NT's IMO.
    Due around 1-3am (tonight) tomorrow AM.
     
    INDI likes this.
  31. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    23,741
    Likes Received:
    17,883
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW
    I would have thought the cloud band hitting now would be snow up high. 7 degrees at Tamworth (400m).
     
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,813
    Likes Received:
    26,923
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Sounding for Armidale 10am.
    FL: 1500m
    With these sorta upper level temps you'd expect snow down to ~1200m IMO.
    Marginal at best for NT's.
    [​IMG]

    Note: Armidale currently 4.1ºC (1000m ASL)
     
    whether likes this.
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,813
    Likes Received:
    26,923
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Some instability floating around in that trough which is now circa Griffith.
    Looks like one TS with deep convective bands on the IR Sat this arvo. Still a chance IMO.
     
    Homer likes this.
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,813
    Likes Received:
    26,923
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    +5C and precip registering @ Armidale just now.
     
  35. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2017
    Messages:
    1,032
    Likes Received:
    848
    No they are not!!
     
    INDI likes this.
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,813
    Likes Received:
    26,923
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Mount Dowe, Kaputar with a light dusting this morning:
     
  37. AnnerleyX1

    AnnerleyX1 First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2020
    Messages:
    5
    Likes Received:
    9
    Headed down, and yeah, just not enough moisture really. Some settled snow south of Walcha, and on and off showers of sleet and flakes all morning in Guyra but not enough to settle. Temperatures plenty cold enough (-1 to 1 C) but just weak bands of showers.
     
    whether and POW_hungry like this.
  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,813
    Likes Received:
    26,923
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Bugger, yeah moisture was always going to be an issue unfortunately.