Day to Day Northern Territory

Greysrigging

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Just in case y'all have forgotten how hot it has been this month ( Darwin Airport site so far ).... consider these stats...
Average max December at the Airport since 1941 - 32.7c
Previous highest average max for Dec ( 2002 ) - 34.4c.
Average max temps so far Dec 2019 as of today. - 35.4c
Now for a site in the far north deep in the tropics this is an unprecedented reading ( given there is usually very little deviation from max and min temps closer to the equator )
A full 2.8c above the normal monthly mean temps and 1c higher than the previous record for the month of December.
The IOD has a bit to answer for it seems....
And Tindal ( Katherine ) is even more extreme, currently running at 5.2c above the December mean maximum temperatures.
A post I put up on the Katherine site yesterday...
"To give some NT perspective to the unprecedented heat torturing Australia atm.... the AWS at Tindal is running at 5.1c above the monthly average at 40.7c This is an incredible reading for a station so deep in the tropics at 14.5S of latitude !
And the next 7 days show some 43's and a 44c on Boxing Day in the forecast ! Already exceeded the previous Dec maximum temp 7 times this month !"

And getting back to Darwin airport obs/forecasts, a whole series of 35's and 36's over the next 7 days will boost the monthly average even further.... unless the models showing a bit of Monsoon activity towards the end of the month actually happen..... ?
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/nt/darwin-daly/darwin
 

Greysrigging

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And to give some 'boots on the ground' perspective of the heat up in the deep north, well I've done a bit of a stint on a bridge demolition job out along the Victoria Highway near Timber Creek since mid October..... brutally hot, between 40c and 45c every day.... but a reasonably dry heat and except for the flies, its sorta doable without too much of a saga.... Been home for a coupla days ( Darwin ) and I sh*t you not, the 35c/36c in suburban Darwin is waaay worse on the human body. Dripping sweat just doing SFA under the shade of my elevated house..... c'mon monsoon you bastard, where are you ?
 

Orebound

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And to give some 'boots on the ground' perspective of the heat up in the deep north, well I've done a bit of a stint on a bridge demolition job out along the Victoria Highway near Timber Creek since mid October..... brutally hot, between 40c and 45c every day.... but a reasonably dry heat and except for the flies, its sorta doable without too much of a saga.... Been home for a coupla days ( Darwin ) and I sh*t you not, the 35c/36c in suburban Darwin is waaay worse on the human body. Dripping sweat just doing SFA under the shade of my elevated house..... c'mon monsoon you bastard, where are you ?

Nice post and agree 100%. The build-up this year has been about as uncivilized as I can remember, truly putrid out there at the moment with conditions not looking set to let off significantly in the short term.

As far as the monsoon goes, unfortunately I'm not seeing any significant influence in the traditional sense of deep-layered vigorous NW flow tearing in squall lines one after the other that's for sure. With the increasing likelihood of a LOW wrapping up the majority of the fetch to the west of Darwin it will only be the crumbs making it onto the Top End coast in my opinion. Should still see a general increase in shower and storm activity however with a fair bit more available moisture.

Accumulated rainfall via EC has downgraded significantly with the lack of strong onshore flow.

Now where is that "Dislike" button? :mad:

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Greysrigging

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Agreed..... and a different December to last year when we had an extended period of dry westerlies from memory....
 
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Greysrigging

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A much anticipated 44mm drop of rain in the last 24 hours in Leanyer, courtesy of a tropical low running across the Top End. And a good steady soaking type rain, that, combined with the 120kgs of Dynamic Lifter spread around the yard between Xmas and New Year, should work its magic on the garden.
The first fall greater than the old 1" since the 5th November ( 46.6mm ). Prior to that the last + inch of rain was on the 5th May last year.
Its been an exceptionally dry 'build up' season in Darwin's northern suburbs, only 135.8mm in Leanyer ( av 478.4mm )
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Greysrigging

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Up over 560mm now.
What a bucketing ! The highest daily record for Dum in Mirrie is 345.6 mm on 20 Feb 2008. The previous highest daily record for NT is 544.6 mm on 15 April 1963 at Roper Valley. Smashed both records......see what the 24 hour figures come in at 9.00am.
 
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Orebound

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Thunderstorms continuing to stream in from the Timor Sea under deep-layered westerly flow that has become firmly established over the past day or so. This flow looks to strengthen a little over the next couple of days with a bit of a surface low developing around the base of the Top End. Expecting some fairly substantial rainfall figures over the course of the week for much of the Northern Territory but in particular the exposed parts of the west coast.

9d99b809-1d4a-4933-b753-69a6b3edca58[1993].gif


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POW Hungry

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Thunderstorms continuing to stream in from the Timor Sea under deep-layered westerly flow that has become firmly established over the past day or so. This flow looks to strengthen a little over the next couple of days with a bit of a surface low developing around the base of the Top End. Expecting some fairly substantial rainfall figures over the course of the week for much of the Northern Territory but in particular the exposed parts of the west coast.

9d99b809-1d4a-4933-b753-69a6b3edca58[1993].gif


pme1to8.png
Looks like that low/trough might wander off Westerward at the stall of the RW, toward the end of the week.
Kimberley cyc looks possible in the long range off the back of it.
 
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Orebound

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Looks like that low/trough might wander off Westerward at the stall of the RW, toward the end of the week.
Kimberley cyc looks possible in the long range off the back of it.

Yeah that's right, there is certainly some solutions that see it in a position to develop further in the extended time frame and plenty that see a fairly robust LOW wandering around the eastern Kimberley dumping a load of rain. Interesting little set-up.

ecens_2020-01-19-12Z_240_-8.347_108.19_-26.287_136.952_MSLP_Surface_lows.png
 
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Orebound

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Another night of regular squalls rolling in from the WNW with fairly aggressive lightning accompanying them. These squalls are continuing this morning with a strengthening NW flow bringing some hefty winds onto the coasts.

Nice rainfall accumulations about the joint too.

IDD65141.gif


Indicative of a nice deep monsoon flow.

IDS65024.94120.png
 

hotsaki

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Hefty winds for sure.We live by the sea in Coconut Grove and I reckon wind gusts in that last squall
were cyclone strength.One the other day snapped the top off an African oil palm!
 
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Orebound

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Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Weather Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS
For people in Tiwi and parts of Daly and Arnhem districts.

Issued at 4:56 pm Tuesday, 21 January 2020.

SQUALLY MONSOONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE RACING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TOP END

upload_2020-1-21_18-7-51.png

Weather Situation: A developing tropical low over the Gregory District is drawing in a vigorous monsoonal flow across the northern Top End.

DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts of around 90 km/h are developing this afternoon across the Tiwi Islands, northern Daly and Arnhem districts, including Darwin.

Winds are expected to persist into Wednesday as the tropical low slowly moves east towards the Carpentaria and northern Barkly District.

Locations which may be affected include Darwin, Palmerston, Jabiru, Maningrida, Wurrumiyanga and Nauiyu.

The Northern Territory Emergency Service advises that people should:
* secure loose outside objects and seek shelter when conditions deteriorate
* ensure pets and animals are safe
* be prepared in case of power outages, have an emergency kit with a radio, torch, spare batteries and first aid kit
* for emergency help in floods, storms and cyclones, contact the NTES on 132 500. For more safety tips visit www.securent.nt.gov.au


The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 11:00 pm ACST Tuesday.

Euro ensemble is keeping this LOW meandering around in the vicinity of the Top End and Gregory/East Kimberley districts for at least the next week. This will combine with a much stronger monsoon surge next week leading to what appears to be a significant prolonged rain event for much of the Northern Territory and Kimberley.

ecens_2020-01-21-00Z_192_-5.4_112.286_-29.147_146.762_MSLP_Surface_lows.png


From the BoM...

Widespread rainfall for northern Australia this week
Weather models indicate much of northern Australia could see rainfall of between 25 and 100 mm, with some parts of the far northwest of the country likely to see rainfall totals in excess of 150 mm. The predicted rainfall is associated with humid, deep-layer westerly winds over the north of the continent. This wind flow and humidity is likely to combine with surface troughs over the continent to generate significant rainfall, extending from the Kimberley region of Western Australia, across nearly all of the Northern Territory and throughout Queensland.

The current conditions across northern Australia are monsoon-like, based on the humidity and westerly wind flow. However, some characteristics of this environment differ from a typical monsoon, in particular the lack of a well-defined monsoon trough. In addition to widespread rainfall across northern Australia in the coming week, some models predict a low pressure system may develop over the inland Northern Territory or eastern Kimberely region; this could potentially generate locally heavy falls well in excess of 100 mm.
 

Greysrigging

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Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Weather Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS
For people in Tiwi and parts of Daly and Arnhem districts.

Issued at 4:56 pm Tuesday, 21 January 2020.

SQUALLY MONSOONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE RACING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TOP END

upload_2020-1-21_18-7-51.png

Weather Situation: A developing tropical low over the Gregory District is drawing in a vigorous monsoonal flow across the northern Top End.

DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts of around 90 km/h are developing this afternoon across the Tiwi Islands, northern Daly and Arnhem districts, including Darwin.

Winds are expected to persist into Wednesday as the tropical low slowly moves east towards the Carpentaria and northern Barkly District.

Locations which may be affected include Darwin, Palmerston, Jabiru, Maningrida, Wurrumiyanga and Nauiyu.

The Northern Territory Emergency Service advises that people should:
* secure loose outside objects and seek shelter when conditions deteriorate
* ensure pets and animals are safe
* be prepared in case of power outages, have an emergency kit with a radio, torch, spare batteries and first aid kit
* for emergency help in floods, storms and cyclones, contact the NTES on 132 500. For more safety tips visit www.securent.nt.gov.au


The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 11:00 pm ACST Tuesday.

Euro ensemble is keeping this LOW meandering around in the vicinity of the Top End and Gregory/East Kimberley districts for at least the next week. This will combine with a much stronger monsoon surge next week leading to what appears to be a significant prolonged rain event for much of the Northern Territory and Kimberley.

ecens_2020-01-21-00Z_192_-5.4_112.286_-29.147_146.762_MSLP_Surface_lows.png


From the BoM...

Widespread rainfall for northern Australia this week
Weather models indicate much of northern Australia could see rainfall of between 25 and 100 mm, with some parts of the far northwest of the country likely to see rainfall totals in excess of 150 mm. The predicted rainfall is associated with humid, deep-layer westerly winds over the north of the continent. This wind flow and humidity is likely to combine with surface troughs over the continent to generate significant rainfall, extending from the Kimberley region of Western Australia, across nearly all of the Northern Territory and throughout Queensland.

The current conditions across northern Australia are monsoon-like, based on the humidity and westerly wind flow. However, some characteristics of this environment differ from a typical monsoon, in particular the lack of a well-defined monsoon trough. In addition to widespread rainfall across northern Australia in the coming week, some models predict a low pressure system may develop over the inland Northern Territory or eastern Kimberely region; this could potentially generate locally heavy falls well in excess of 100 mm.
Many people are surprised to hear of a Low tracking West to East over the Top End.... while not really common, I've seen it happen before and usually results in a good dump of rain as the lows eventually stall and then drift back west. And if they move over water, potentially 'game on'.
Another 'Çarlos' type system would be nice, stalling over Darwin for a few days....
 

hotsaki

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Many people are surprised to hear of a Low tracking West to East over the Top End.... while not really common, I've seen it happen before and usually results in a good dump of rain as the lows eventually stall and then drift back west. And if they move over water, potentially 'game on'.
Another 'Çarlos' type system would be nice, stalling over Darwin for a few days....
As long as its before I go to Japan.Carlos seriously freaked out Mrs Hotsaki.I was fine.I was skiing!
 

Rabid K9

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Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Weather Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS
For people in Tiwi and parts of Daly and Arnhem districts.

Issued at 4:56 pm Tuesday, 21 January 2020.

SQUALLY MONSOONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE RACING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TOP END

upload_2020-1-21_18-7-51.png

Weather Situation: A developing tropical low over the Gregory District is drawing in a vigorous monsoonal flow across the northern Top End.

DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts of around 90 km/h are developing this afternoon across the Tiwi Islands, northern Daly and Arnhem districts, including Darwin.

Winds are expected to persist into Wednesday as the tropical low slowly moves east towards the Carpentaria and northern Barkly District.

Locations which may be affected include Darwin, Palmerston, Jabiru, Maningrida, Wurrumiyanga and Nauiyu.

The Northern Territory Emergency Service advises that people should:
* secure loose outside objects and seek shelter when conditions deteriorate
* ensure pets and animals are safe
* be prepared in case of power outages, have an emergency kit with a radio, torch, spare batteries and first aid kit
* for emergency help in floods, storms and cyclones, contact the NTES on 132 500. For more safety tips visit www.securent.nt.gov.au


The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 11:00 pm ACST Tuesday.

Euro ensemble is keeping this LOW meandering around in the vicinity of the Top End and Gregory/East Kimberley districts for at least the next week. This will combine with a much stronger monsoon surge next week leading to what appears to be a significant prolonged rain event for much of the Northern Territory and Kimberley.

ecens_2020-01-21-00Z_192_-5.4_112.286_-29.147_146.762_MSLP_Surface_lows.png


From the BoM...

Widespread rainfall for northern Australia this week
Weather models indicate much of northern Australia could see rainfall of between 25 and 100 mm, with some parts of the far northwest of the country likely to see rainfall totals in excess of 150 mm. The predicted rainfall is associated with humid, deep-layer westerly winds over the north of the continent. This wind flow and humidity is likely to combine with surface troughs over the continent to generate significant rainfall, extending from the Kimberley region of Western Australia, across nearly all of the Northern Territory and throughout Queensland.

The current conditions across northern Australia are monsoon-like, based on the humidity and westerly wind flow. However, some characteristics of this environment differ from a typical monsoon, in particular the lack of a well-defined monsoon trough. In addition to widespread rainfall across northern Australia in the coming week, some models predict a low pressure system may develop over the inland Northern Territory or eastern Kimberely region; this could potentially generate locally heavy falls well in excess of 100 mm.

Hold my monsoon trough, somebody tell Lockhart River (coast side of Iron Range, Cape York) that those glorified crocodile breeding grounds in the NT & Kimberley are pinching all the rain.

If the gauge is to be believed.

19/01 - 207mm
20/01 - 65.8mm
21/01 - until 2320, 127.8mm

Closing in on 400mm last three days. Certainly wouldn't getting in there by road.
 

Orebound

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Many people are surprised to hear of a Low tracking West to East over the Top End.... while not really common, I've seen it happen before and usually results in a good dump of rain as the lows eventually stall and then drift back west. And if they move over water, potentially 'game on'.
Another 'Çarlos' type system would be nice, stalling over Darwin for a few days....


Yeah this one is probably quite unlikely to spend any time over water but it will serve to intensify the monsoon flow towards the middle of next week as it gets shoved back to the west out of the Barkly by the new ridge. There looks to be a reasonable cross-equatorial surge again next week that should bring more of the same conditions we have been experiencing over the past few days.

ecmwfued---australia_nt-186-C-925windkcounty.png


gfs_rapid---australia_nt-216-C-925windkcounty.png


EC ensemble possible positions for later next week, all of which have the potential to set up a reasonable monsoon trough over the Top End.

ecens_2020-01-21-12Z_192_-4.273_116.286_-27.76_147.238_MSLP_Surface_lows.png


This current surge should back off a bit later today for a few days with the heavier rain tending to focus in the southern gulf while the LOW loiters in the area. Last night however was probably some of the stronger squalls from this event with the Mrs' garden taking a bit of a hiding much to her displeasure LOL
 
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Orebound

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Darwin area rainfall figures for the past couple of days are starting to look more like a traditional wet season, even the AP gauge that for the most part missed most of the bigger falls earlier in the month is approaching 350mm for the MTD.

IDD65141.gif


IDD65141.gif
 
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Greysrigging

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A dry spell in Darwin atm....the BOM criteria for the arrival of the monsoon not quite met last week, despite the 300 odd mm that fell over 5 days. An inland storm or two ( Lake Bennett ) last night
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Rabid K9

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A dry spell in Darwin atm....the BOM criteria for the arrival of the monsoon not quite met last week, despite the 300 odd mm that fell over 5 days. An inland storm or two ( Lake Bennett ) last night
83177932_322764158643922_7902938097510252544_n.jpg

83177932_322764158643922_7902938097510252544_n.jpg
80789430_2555966127950621_5561489199527362560_n.jpg
83149120_651313925404885_2285593634277425152_n.jpg
83149120_651313925404885_2285593634277425152_n.jpg
83336479_726881411171941_4827386452922859520_n.jpg
83849030_1092588847752800_1322366107692040192_n.jpg
83904888_164117491517681_2126643697880662016_n.jpg
84007807_221257365568744_1728134276853006336_n.jpg

First couple of photos look suspiciously like a swimming pontoon?

Or is a that a 'feed yourself to the Swamp Lizards deck'?
 
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Greysrigging

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First couple of photos look suspiciously like a swimming pontoon?

Or is a that a feed yourself to the Swamp Lizards deck?
They are.... no crocs in here, safe for swimming.....mind you there is a baited croc trap on the western end of the lake.
It's there for Justin........ just in case.......
 
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Rabid K9

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They are.... no crocs in here, safe for swimming.....mind you there is a baited croc trap on the western end of the lake.
It's there for Justin........ just in case.......

That instills confidence....

Really not that far from the tidal reaches of the Adelaide, not that anyone ever saw a croc in there either.

Looks like a pleasant spot either way. Second nature to double guess every over bath size piece of water north of the Tropic.
 
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Greysrigging

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C'mon 'Wet'....where are you !
The image shows our two staple 'build up' storm systems. 'Hector the Convector' over the Tiwi Islands and the 'Labelle Cell' around the higher country of Litchfield Park.
In Darwin we are suffering the 'Drysoons', westerlies without rain. With the low buggering off over WA and the very weak trough at the base of the Top End weakening, we may get a brief return of an Easterly pattern, so perhaps some shower and storm activity.
84453618_3818870521464222_414659052111396864_n.jpg
 

Greysrigging

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Mother nature is a fair indicator of the change of seasons in my Leanyer Heights garden. One of the key indicators of the impending 'Dry' was reached yesterday.....bloody scary thought ! And it really brings home what an abysmal 'Wet' so far in the Northern Suburbs.
Every April ( usually ) after a long run of rainless days, the earthworms come up out of the drying ground and sorta commit suicide on the concrete driveway and under the house....all the predators love it.... birds, lizards, meat ants etc enjoy the feast.
Well this weekend they are up and about out of the dry garden....8th of Feb ! and the critters reckon that's it for the season....Good Grief, I hope not ( typing away as a storm rumbles overhead and a sprinkle of rain begins to fall.....)
So, here are some stats re rainless days in our 4 wettest months
Leanyer Heights - Jan - Feb - Mar - Dec.
2020 20 3 ( so far )
2019 9 15 15 20
2018 9 4 9 23
2017 8 9 5 17
2016 18 12 16 12
2015 7 6 15 8
2014 8 7 18 19
2013 14 10 6 17
2012 11 13 12 18
2011 5 5 5 17
2010 5 13 15 4

So, there you go.... despite what Southerners ( and locals too ) sometimes think, it doesn't really rain every day in the Wet. The December stats sorta reflect the onset of monsoonal conditions which on average is in the last week of the month..... in reality December is a 'build up' month.
And one can't really link the number of rainy days with rainfall totals......
So getting back to this season's experience in the Northern Suburbs.... crap is an apt description....
71 days since 1/12/19, of which 43 have been rainless !
But spare a thought for our mates over on the Gove Peninsular....the poorest 'Wet Season' on record ( so far ) by a long shot
185mm so far this wet.. and the previous lowest on record for a wet is about 780mm.
Not only abnormally dry, there is an extreme heatwave forecast over the south eastern Top End and Gulf country for the next week or so. Many long standing February heat records may be broken. Borroloola in particular has a string of +44c days ( even a 46c ! ) forecast. Katherine ( Tindal RAAF Base ) expected to exceed 40c for 3 or 4 days next week. These sort of temps in the middle of a northern wet season are just about unheard of !
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/nt/roper-mcarthur/borroloola
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/nt/darwin-daly/katherine
Sometimes looking up/quoting old site records can be misleading. Borroloola Airport only has a short term set of records ( from 1994 )
And the old Post Office site only had digitised records from 1957 to 1978. So it is quite plausible that there are older post Stevenson Screen record temps out there in BOMland.
The All time Airport record is 44.7c in Dec 2019
Feb record is 42.7c in 2002
All time at the Post Office 44.4c in 1965 and 1969
Feb record is 40.6c in 1970.
 
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Greysrigging

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Well the extreme heat has been dialed back somewhat into the 42's at Borroloola.
But the rest of the Top End is looking a bit bleak for mid February....
86295410_3286246394725440_8109203266245492736_n.jpg
 

Greysrigging

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The northern Wet, whilst generally poor this season, is hanging in there. Massive downpour in the industrial area between Darwin and Palmerston this morning.....98mm in an hour or so from one report. This pic is of the Stuart Highway at the 11 mile ( Pinelands )
92639573_246587373131953_1258354756926046208_n.png

Radar still looking good for April.
92117227_518690492371473_4393589958548389888_n.png
 
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