Day to Day Northern Territory

Greysrigging

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Jul 11, 2019
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Another 20mm of good soaking rain this arvo.... April rain is a dead set bonus...
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Greysrigging

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Jul 11, 2019
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Been a cow of a day in Darwin and surrounds today...
But the sea breeze kicking in half an hour ago and she's back down to 32c ish. ( in the northern 'burbs, still 34.8c at the Airport atm )
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Greysrigging

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Jul 11, 2019
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The rain is gone, but still a bit of warm weather around as we head into the 2nd week of May. We need a big kick arse slow moving high in the Bight to get the south easterlies blowing and deliver some sub 20c nights.
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And, the results of two consecutive failed 'Wets'.....note that although we have just come out of the rainy season, the dam storages are at 'end of dry' levels.....and another 5 months of hot and windy seasonal conditions before any chances of replenishment.. A 3rd poor wet could mean water restrictions in the Darwin / Palmerston regions, something that hasn't happened in my 40 odd years here.
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Greysrigging

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Jul 11, 2019
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Anyone else noted the amazing rainfall figures coming from the Gumboot Coast in FNQ in the last 24 hours ? Was listening to the Country Hour earlier this arvo and and the Tully-Innisfail area has picked up +250mm totals in the last 24 hours....some hick joint jagged 330mm ! And us mob get excited with 0.8mm at the Airport, let alone 18mm at Gunn Point....lol
I wonder if the down south weather mobs actually 'get' the significance of the various systems impacting the Australian Continent in the next few days ?. its not just the prospect of unseasonal May rain. it is also the prospect of record cold May maximum temperatures about to descend on vast areas of the Tropics on Friday/Saturday.
Many coastal and inland stations in Queensland will break historic cold records if the forecast max temps come off. Gladstone, Rockhampton, Mackay, Townsville, Cairns, are all gunna have a cold day on Saturday, with 13c in Rocky being Melbourne like in July ! lol !
I daresay the Atherton Tablelands might also need a beanie or 2 on Saturday.
Back in the NT it would appear places like Katherine, Elliot, Tennant Creek etc will also break May cold records.
So a significant cold event for the Tropics, on par with the June 2007 event that saw bitter cold max's of 10c across most of inland North Queensland. Mt Isa was 9.8c on the 20th from memory....
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Greysrigging

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Coming from the Northern Territory....

You might have to break out some socks to go with your thongs?
Darwin forecast is 25c tomorrow.....the rest of May has averaged about 33-34c, so an 8 or 9c drop is gunna be a bit ordinary.
Might have to drag out a flanny shirt...... and socks ;)
 
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Greysrigging

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Rare as rocking horse poo to see midday and 3.00pm temps like this in Darwin and the Rural areas.....
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Greysrigging

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Was brutal after dark yesterday ( in a weather way )...28c, humidity 60% and DPs 20c !
Supposed be in the depths of the 'Dry', and my beer intake is supposed to taper off.....nope, not yet....
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Greysrigging

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A brutal day in the Top End.... all time max temp record for June of 35c..... hot easterly winds, fires out bush, high DP's on the coast.... yeah the last 2 days been pretty ordinary for June.
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Greysrigging

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Gotta love Darwin in the middle of Winter. Today is our first ( of many to come unfortunately ) Total Fire Ban days with south easterlies gusting to 60klm/h and a DP around 11*
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Greysrigging

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And....It's official...the Darwin Airport has broken the record for the hottest July day....35c ( 95f ). Really has been a cow of a day with the DP's up a bit too in the northern suburbs where I'm located.
My son and I have been out laboring in it stripping an old timber deck and loading it all into the trailer for some runs to the dump. I'm pretty well acclimatised to our heat and humidity, but it knocked me around a bit today....
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Greysrigging

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Depths of winter in Darwin this morning
Airport 16.4c ( coldest morning since August last year )
Noonamah ( about 35klm south west ) 9.0c.
Middle Point ( about 40klm south east ) 6.4c !
Both Noonamah and Middle Point districts form part of Darwin's extensive rural areas, and at 12.6*S record surprisingly cold mins for the latitude. Middle point dropped to 4.6c in 1965 and 4.8c only last year. Noonamah has had several different recording locations and these have been as low as 4.8c and 6.5c respectively.

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Greysrigging

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Oh oh.....its as if someone has thrown the switch...... about right, mid August and the 'Dry' is on the way out. Humidity and temps, both max and mins on the rise, and the 'Labelle Cell' making an appearance.
Bradshaw topped out at 37c yesterday
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Greysrigging

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Looks like we’ve had one winter 40C before. Wonder when the next one will be
Still 2 weeks of winter remaining..... and yes, it has happened before....

Official records for Australia in August
Records valid as of 19 November 2019
Rank Value
(°C)
Date
Station Name
State Station
Number
Elevation
(m)
Latitude
(°)
Longitude
(°)

1 40.0 27 August 1970 Kalumburu Mission WA 1021 23 -14.30 126.64
2 39.7 20 August 2013 Timber Creek NT 14850 20 -15.66 130.48
2 39.7 31 August 2009 Wyndham Aero WA 1006 4 -15.51 128.15
4 39.6 24 August 2017 Mandora WA 4019 8 -19.74 120.84
4 39.6 31 August 1985 Wyndham WA 1013 11 -15.49 128.12
6 39.5 20 August 2013 Warmun WA 2032 203 -17.02 128.22
6 39.5 27 August 1965 Derby Post Office WA 3007 8 -17.30 123.63
8 39.4 29 August 1970 Kununurra WA 2038 47 -15.78 128.74
9 39.3 27 August 1970 Kununurra WA 2038 47 -15.78 128.74
10 39.2 20 August 2013 Argyle Aerodrome WA 2064 164 -16.64 128.45
10 39.2 25 August 1998 Mango Farm NT 14938 15 -13.74 130.68
10 39.2 31 August 1985 Derby Post Office WA 3007 8 -17.30 123.63
10 39.2 28 August 1970 Victoria River Downs NT 14825 89 -16.40 131.01
 

Greysrigging

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Jul 11, 2019
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A preliminary record hot day for August at Tindal RAAF Base ( near Katherine ) 37.7c
Equals a record in Town back in August 1998 at the Aviation Museum.
Near record max temps forecast over the inland Top End, in the next few days, 37c-39c range.
Bye bye dry season, bring on the build up ! ( Storms !! ).
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Greysrigging

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Darwin Airport made a bit of a run for an August record with 36.4c ( record 37.0c ). A real 'down south' summer sorta day with the low DP's and humidity, not to mention the gusty winds and catastrophic fire danger.....
A couple of 37.8c's out in the rural districts ( Humpty Doo and Noonamah
 

Greysrigging

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Jul 11, 2019
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Another 'down south' summer type day in Darwin today with extreme fire danger, low DP's/humidity and gusty south easterlies.
Max temp of 36.7c at the Airport ( Sept record is 37.7c back in 1983 ).
38c-39c out in the Rural Districts, with some out of control fires and some property losses.
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Water bombers in action near friends place at Humpty Doo....
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Greysrigging

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Jul 11, 2019
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So we are 8 days into September and the Airport is running at 35.3c average max temp, a full 2.7c above the long term average for the month The record hot Septembers are in the last decade, 34.1c in 2017 and 34.0c in 2010
Sept 2017 had 8 days +35c, and 3 of those were +36c.
Sept 2010 also had 8 days +35c.
The next 7 days still have 34-36 in the forecast so the first half of Sept 2020 is shaping up to be extremely warm at the Airport.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/station.jsp?lt=site&lc=14015&list=ds
 
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Greysrigging

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Jul 11, 2019
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Past the half way mark for September. Already eight days of +35c temps at the Airport, and the running monthly average of 34.9c is a full 2.3c above the norm for the Airport site ( 80 odd years of records ). Most weather fanatics have short memories ( except stats nerds such as myself haha ), the previous highest record monthly average max is 34.1c in Sept 2017. There 8 days +35c in 2017.
So depending on how the forecast increasing moisture levels and slightly lower temps pan out, we are on track to set a new September heat record average.
As an aside, do we all think the years are hotter than in the past ?
Y'all understand there are lies, damn lies, then statistics ?
Consider this ( Airport )
Since the beginning of 2015, the Airport has recorded above average monthly temps 61 months out of 67 ( to the end of August 2020 )
2 months have been right on the long term average
And only 4 months below the long term average ( last was April 2017 ).
There is a bit of a message in the stats methinks.....

PS, its starting.... bring it on !
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Greysrigging

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Jul 11, 2019
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You'd have to be happy with this mornings effort then!

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Nope, very disappointed again, but it's what one expects in the Desierto de Leanyer ( otherwise known as the Darwin Northern Suburbs ) The Force Field was activated by the Rain Gods.... The Airport received a full on downpour of 49.8mm in the early hours this morning, Nightcliff Pool 39.6mm..... Me in Leanyer ? 8.3mm......( sigh )
Mind you, I'm grateful to have exceeded the monthly average here at home.....lol !
Some Sept stats...

The 49.8mm at the Airport, added to yesterday's 9.6.......
Running total for September 59.4mm.
Since 1941 there have only been 6 wetter Septembers.
!942 - 108.1mm
1947 - 83.8mm
1964 - 70.7mm
1981 - 129.8mm
1984 - 66.6mm
2016 - 64.4mm.
September average is 15.6mm, although the median is only 5.8mm.
The 95th %ile is 64.6mm.
And the 49.8mm fall is is the highest 24 hour Sept tally since 1981 ( 54.2mm ), then a daily figure of 58.7mm in 1965 and the record of 70.6mm in 1942.
Bring It On !!
 

Orebound

Storm Tourist
Jul 4, 2019
342
1,289
263
Darwin NT
Nope, very disappointed again, but it's what one expects in the Desierto de Leanyer ( otherwise known as the Darwin Northern Suburbs ) The Force Field was activated by the Rain Gods.... The Airport received a full on downpour of 49.8mm in the early hours this morning, Nightcliff Pool 39.6mm..... Me in Leanyer ? 8.3mm......( sigh )
Mind you, I'm grateful to have exceeded the monthly average here at home.....lol !
Some Sept stats...

The 49.8mm at the Airport, added to yesterday's 9.6.......
Running total for September 59.4mm.
Since 1941 there have only been 6 wetter Septembers.
!942 - 108.1mm
1947 - 83.8mm
1964 - 70.7mm
1981 - 129.8mm
1984 - 66.6mm
2016 - 64.4mm.
September average is 15.6mm, although the median is only 5.8mm.
The 95th %ile is 64.6mm.
And the 49.8mm fall is is the highest 24 hour Sept tally since 1981 ( 54.2mm ), then a daily figure of 58.7mm in 1965 and the record of 70.6mm in 1942.
Bring It On !!

And there's another 16mm in the can at the airport from tonight's little storm. Still September huh?
 

Greysrigging

One of Us
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Jul 11, 2019
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Darwin
And, for our southern mates, to give some anecdotal perspective on these unusual September rains.....
The Northern Suburbs of Darwin, most years, don't seem to do so well in the early months of the 'build up'. The storms mostly impact the rural outskirts of Darwin, and great big promising looking storms often die a disappointing death on the infamous Northern Suburbs 'Force Field'. Annoys us locals no end....
Averages for Darwin Airport, Sept-15.6, Oct-69.5, Nov-142.7
Averages for Leanyer, Sept-11.7, Oct-65.9, Nov-120.6 *
Averages for CSIRO Berrimah, Sept-12.2, Oct-72.4, Nov-154.0
Averages for Nightcliff Pool, Sept 16.9, Oct-58.7, Nov-121.1*
Averages for Thorak Cemetery, Sept-9.3, Oct-73.3, Nov-158.5
Averages for Humpty Doo, Sept-16.9, Oct 77.0, Nov-170.1
Averages Darwin Hospital, Sept-13.5, Oct-63.4, Nov-125.8 *
Shoal Bay, Sept-14.5, Oct-63.4,Nov-121.8 *
* Denotes coastal or near coastal locations
So to have these consistent showers out along the northern coastal suburbs at this time of the year is very unusual !
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/a-wet-end-for-the-northern-dry-season/532582
 

Greysrigging

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Jul 11, 2019
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Darwin's Wet End To The Dry Season. ( source Weatherzone )
"Darwin just had its wettest September in 39 years, bringing a soggy end to the 'so-called' dry season.
Northern Australia's dry season runs from May until September. During this nearly rainless five-month period, Darwin only averages around 44mm of rain.
By the end of August this year, Darwin had only picked up 2.4mm since the beginning of the season. However, the city then copped a soaking in September and collected more than five times its long-term average for the month.

As of 9am on Monday, Darwin's running monthly total was 86.8mm. This is the city's highest September total since 1981 and its third wettest September on record, with data going back to 1941.
This month's rain brings Darwin's dry season total up to 89.2mm, which is more than double the long-term average and the second wettest dry season of the last decade.

Long-range forecast models have been anticipating a wet end to this year's dry season since June. This outlook was underpinned by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures near northern Australia and a developing La Nina pattern in the Pacific Ocean.
So, does this mean that Darwin and other areas of northern Australia are about to embark on a wetter-than-average wet season?
The broad-scale climate drivers that lead to an early rainfall onset in Darwin this month will still be at play as we head into the wet season proper. In addition to the developing La Nina in the Pacific Ocean, some computer models also suggest that a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could develop later this spring. Both La Nina and the negative IOD typically cause above-average rainfall in northern Australia during the wet season."
 

Greysrigging

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Jul 11, 2019
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During this nearly rainless five-month period, Darwin only averages around 44mm of rain.
Well, I don't take too much notice of 'dry season' averages.... the 'median' gives a far more accurate guide as to the expected rain totals.
For example the dry season median is only 10.6mm at the Airport.
May, 4.8mm, June-August 0, September 5.8mm.
 
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