Day to Day Northern Territory

Greysrigging

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Jul 11, 2019
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So, La Nina declared....
120107743_3268592309896963_4920845290954813534_n.png

Righti-o....lets have a bit of a look at the big La Nina of 2010-2011. and how it impacted on Katherine and Darwin rainfall wise.....
Tindal - Average yearly-1074.1mm. Median-1085.6mm
2009 - 622.6mm
2010 - 1120.6mm
2011 - 1162.4mm
2012 - 691.6mm
Darwin - Average yearly-1722.8mm. Median-1723.7mm
2009 - 1742.4mm
2010 - 2257.2mm
2011 - 2686.0mm
2012 - 1723.7mm.
Soooo, simply by the numbers you'd reckon a decent Wet period. And, ( no science here ) Three poor Wets in a row ?
Yeah, nah.....
 

Greysrigging

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September at Darwin Airport

The 3rd hottest ( av max since records began in 1941 ) 33.9c ( record 34.1c in 2016 )
The 3rd wettest ( since records began in 1941 ) 86.8mm ( record 129.8mm in 1981 )

Average high - 33.9c ( Long term average 32.6c )
Average low - 23.7c (long term average 23.0c )
Monthly Average - 28.8c ( long term average 27.8c )

Highest maximum - 37.0c on the 8th
Lowest maximum - 31.9c on the 20th
Highest minimum - 25.5c on the 24th
Lowest minimum - 21.1c on the 13th

The maximum exceeded 35c on 8 days during the first half of the month ( also a new record for September )
Top 5 hottest days ( by highest daytime high )
37.0c Sept 8
36.7c Sept 6
35.8c Sept 9
35.6c Sept 15
35.5c Sept 14
Top 5 coolest nights ( by lowest overnight minimums )
21.1c Sept 13
21.7c Sept 12
21,7c Sept 11
21.8c Sept 7
22.0c Sept 6

Total Precipitation - 86.8mm
Total Measurable Precipitation Days - 7
Rainiest Day - 49.8mm ( Sept 20 )
Darwin Airport 1941-2020 Mean Rainfall - 16.5mm on 2.4 days. Median Rainfall 6.1mm.
The daily rainfall of 49.8mm on the 20th was the highest daily Sept recording since 1981.
 

Greysrigging

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Alice Springs has the following forecast

October 3- 37/19- mostly sunny, windy
October 4- 35/22- becoming cloudy, windy
October 5- 14/13- cloudy, rain, possible heavy falls (80% of 15-50mm)
October 6- 14/11- cloudy, rain at times (60% of 1-8mm)
October 7- 20/11- cloudy
October 8- 23/11- sunny
October 9- 25/13- sunny


Record low maximum for October is 11.7C, very unlikely to beat this, but still incredibly impressive range.
 

AshestoAshes

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Alice Springs has the following forecast

October 3- 37/19- mostly sunny, windy
October 4- 35/22- becoming cloudy, windy
October 5- 14/13- cloudy, rain, possible heavy falls (80% of 15-50mm)
October 6- 14/11- cloudy, rain at times (60% of 1-8mm)
October 7- 20/11- cloudy
October 8- 23/11- sunny
October 9- 25/13- sunny


Record low maximum for October is 11.7C, very unlikely to beat this, but still incredibly impressive range.
Was about to post this AHAHA, that's the power of negative IOD imo. This happening last year... absolutely no chance.
 
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Greysrigging

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Preliminary cold records ( October ) in the Red Center. The 9.00am tomorrow reset notwithstanding, there has been, or is going to be, some new records
Alice Springs ?, no, todays 13.0c, despite being Melbourne like, is not an October record....this dubious honour occurred back in 1968 (11.7c ) Even so, today's max of 13 is an astonishing 18.1c below the long term average at the Airport.
And the old Post Office site recorded a 11.1c day way back in Oct 1910 !
Other records today... Kulgera ( most likely sub 11c, but data unavailable atm ) previous record 13.6c
Uluru - 14.0c ( 18.4c below average )
Kintore - 17.2c ( 18.7c below average )
Territory Grape Farm - 16.8c ( 16.5 below average )
Ernabella - 10.7c ( 17.7c below average )

There may well be new records set again tomorrow.
 

Orebound

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11.0mm from three separate showers commencing about 2.30am in Leanyer....yeah, Ill take that in early October for sure !

Yes it's been quite a nice start to the season that's for sure. We were down at Litchfield earlier and I can't recall ever seeing it looking so green at this stage in a season, plenty of water around too.
 
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Greysrigging

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^^ this early in the season too ! they did alright out Byno and Dundee way last month as well.
I've just had my best daily Oct tally ( manual gauge so only preliminary about 60mm ) since 2012.
The Northern Suburbs 'force field' is on the blink this season....
120757750_3980342881982451_4148489155934667377_n.jpg
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Orebound

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Nice one. Looks like we'll come in about 80mm here from that lot, won't surprise me if a couple stations cracked 100 though, McMillans Road was a foot deep in places.

October rainfall average already knocked over easily it appears.
 

Greysrigging

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My Leanyer Heights gauge just now.... still raining, so be interesting to see what it'll be at 9.00am
( I see Marrara has scored 170mm so far ! )
Certainly some daily records will fall around town......
120846587_251969869585590_657224840990851584_n.jpg
 

Greysrigging

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Near-record October rain in Darwin ( Source Weatherzone )
"Darwin just had its wettest October day in 140 years as La Niña helps kick-start the wet season in the western Top End.

An abundance of early-wet season moisture over the Top End has been fuelling showers and thunderstorms during the last few days and nights. While wet weather typically starts to become more frequent in northern Australia at this time of year, this week's rain has been remarkably heavy for this early in the wet season (which runs from October to April).

Darwin Airport's 113mm of rain during the 23.5 hours to 9am on Thursday was the highest daily total on record since the site opened in 1941. The airport's previous October record was 95.5mm from 1969."
Darwin rain 20201008.jpg

Radar showing rain over Darwin and surrounding areas of the western Top End on Thursday morning.

"The now-closed Darwin Post Office site, which ran from 1869 to 1962, only had one day with more rain during October: 116.6mm in 1880. This make's Darwin's latest 24-hour rain total of 113mm its second highest for October in records dating back to 1869. It was also Darwin's wettest day since January 2018, making it wetter than any individual day during the last two wet seasons.

Just over one week into the month, Darwin has already doubled its average October rainfall."




 

Greysrigging

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Just an obscure fact re Darwin Airport monthly mean max temps....
Despite the rain and cooler max temps earlier in the month. The October figures ( so far ) show the Airport running bang on the monthly mean at 33.3c.
If this is trend continues until the end of October, it will maintain the extraordinary run of equal to or above average monthly mean max temps dating back to April 2017.
That's right, April 2017 was the last below average month max temp wise at the Airport !
One would hope/expect that the forecast increased rainfall this coming wet will end this unwanted run.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/nt/darwin-daly/darwin
 

Greysrigging

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Some near record breaking max temps forecast for Tindal early next month.
There are a few 42c's in the projections... the all time Nov record at Tindal is 42.5c back in 2006.
Hard to imagine the last 3 months of the year could be hotter than 2019 ! All three 'build up' months set monthly record mean max temps at the Tindal site.
Oct 2019 - 39.4c including a daily record of 42.7c ( 11 +40c )
Nov 2019 - 40.4c including a max of 42.2c ( rec 42.5c ) [ 20 +40c ]
Dec 2019 - 40.8c including a daily record of 43.1c ( 23 +40c ).
Really was the build up from hell ! ( was working out there between Timber Creek and Bradshaw.... was worse !! haha )
Just a note or 2 on researching Katherine records.... take the Weatherzone/Farmline data with a grain of salt..... they show Tindal as having +46c days in both Oct and Nov 1991..... seems implausible, and there is no data on the BOM Climate Data Online pages for those particular dates.....which usually means a faulty reading. Maybe some BOM staffies could chime in ?
The other thing to do when looking up Katherine records is to check out the 3 or 4 other sites around town that were once official BOM sites. Just type in 'Katherine' on the BOM Climate Data Online search page, and you can see old historical data. A lot longer recording history than Tindal, and generally have both higher and lower extremes.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/nt/darwin-daly/katherine

An addendum to my own advice re researching Katherine town site weather records.
Nov 1962 shows Katherine Council recording 3 consecutive days above 45c ( 14th-16th ) with the highest being 45.6c !
So based on that I suppose +46c is possible at Tindal in 1991.... but I doubt it..... one then looks at nearby sites to see if there were exceptional temps on the same days ....and no, there wasn't.......
 

Greysrigging

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A prolonged heatwave developing right across the Top End....plenty of 35c and 36c temps forecast along the North Coast and into the 40's at inland sites. Jabiru, Katherine, Pine Creek, Borroloola are all within a degree of record breaking over the next few days.
There is a 44c in todays forecast at Dorrisvale ( west of Pine Creek. )

The first 7 days of November forecast to reach 35c at the Airport.
Sorta expected or at least not really commented on so much as historically October and November are the hottest months at the Airport. Both months mean max is 33.3c, so yesterday's max of 36.3c a full 3c above the long term average for November.
The record monthly November mean max was back in 2015.....that was 34.7c and only 84.2mm of rain.... way below the average of 142mm
Nov 2015 had 2 days exceed 36c and another 9 exceed 35c.
Nov 2019 had 2 days exceed 36c and another 7 exceed 35c
Nov last year only had 87.2mm of rain, so one can surmise if November is drier than average, it might well be warmer too ?
As predicted earlier last month, with the drying up of the good storms / rainfalls of October, the temperatures recorded for the month managed to exceed the monthly mean of 33.3c by 0.3c.
This continues the astonishing run dating back to April 2017 of no month recording below the mean maximum !
The Airport Oct 2020 only recorded 3 days of +35c temps
1f44d.png

And the 162mm was bloody fantastic !
147.4mm at the Desierto de Leanyer.....
 

wernerk

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Liking the look of BOM's forecast for Darwin a bit more now as it shows the showers/storm icon for each day from tomorrow through to Thu next week.

However, whether anything actually happens is another story... one can only dream :)

Usually when I come to Darwin, I can't seem to shake off the Great Southern Curse, so I'm hoping it will stay down south this visit and I will get to experience a storm or 2.

Last time I was in Darwin was at the end of Jan/beginning Feb in 2018, I had planned a catchup dinner with an ex work colleague and yes, you guessed it, that was the best night for storms. I think from memory, I was down on the floodplains out on the Jabiru road at sunset one other night and Orebound was there too, although I didn't realise it at the time! It was only after reading a post of his about sending a drone up that I remembered the drone.made the connection.
 
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Greysrigging

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Cow of a day in Darwin ( Airport ) 35.9c ( 96.6f ) and likely 2c warmer out at my son's place in Palmerston ( 20klm inland ) where we were pouring a shed slab.
16.2 cubic meters. 6.30am start ( to beat the heat....lol ).....28c, DPs 24c, RH 80%.....and a 4.00am downpour just to steam the morning up some.....
But a nice cooling storm as I type......
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wernerk

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I'll post my observations & experiences while I'm up in Darwin for the week.

After looking at the BOM's forecast, I decided to go for a drive out to Dundee Beach. On the way, saw some interesting cloudscapes as well as some half-hearted attempts at rain (though it did rain heavier further away from the road!)

When I arrived at Dundee, there was a little rumbler to the south near Finniss River. It slowly drifted out to sea with the clouds changing shape and height.

After most activity appeared to have ceased, I decided to head back to the Cox Peninsula Road driving through thick smoke at times from a fire near Finniss River. The sky was looking dark to the south, but there was no structure, not that I could make out anyway.

There were a couple of cauliflowers bubbling away to the east, but inspection of them on the radar suggested they appeared to hit a brick wall and died off.

Got some reasonable photos of cloud structure, so quite happy with the first day in the Top End
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I may post some pics when I return home.
 

Greysrigging

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Well, seems we topped out at 36.4c, the 5th day ( out of 10 this Nov above 36c ). Seems as if every 'build up' in recent years has managed to top previous ones for 'filthyness' !
Was 33.1c at 10.00am ffs ! and actually dropped a bit by 10.30am.
124186787_4082558415094230_5793972984829070371_o.jpg
 
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Greysrigging

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You know how I've been doing a bit of grizzling about the heat in Darwin this November ?
Well, Katherine 300klm south has been atrocious, with only 2 days of the first 12 days of November below 40c ! And one of those was 39.9c and t'other 39.4c. No rain so far this month.
So consider this.....
Nov 2019 was the hottest Nov by mean average maximums ( and not just Tindal, all the other Katherine sites where BOM data is available historically )
2019 - 40.4c
2020 - 41.0c ( so far ). Now this is a full 3.5c above the long term average, a huge departure from the norm, especially for a site deep in the tropics where large departures are rare.
Here's another way to look at it ( the first 12 days of November )
2019 - averaged 39.9c by 12/11
2020 - averaging 41.0c by 12/11 !
A quite remarkable run of heat !
 

wernerk

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What a bust of a week as far as decent stormchasing went
icon_e_sad.gif
.

There were some nice Hector anvil clouds on most days bar one from the Tiwi Islands storms. I think on Tuesday, Hector's cousin also made an appearance as there were 2 massive anvil clouds visible to the north.

On Tuesday evening I watched a distant storm south of Finniss River light up the clouds with an occasional embedded anvil from Stokes Hill Wharf. Too far away for any photos, also quite a lot of stray light about as well.

On Wednesday, nothing around at all, so I decided to investigate this really loud noise which drowned out the TV. Grabbed the camera and went to the airport fence near the control tower to see a couple of fighter planes do a touch and go. Absolutely saturated the sound on the video as they roared back up in the blue yonder, well would have been blue if it was daytime!

After work on Thu the sky was looking promising to the east so I went out near the eastern end of the airport just to watch it all fall apart.

In the early hours of Friday morning (may have been Thu morning) I did witness a storm which passed to the south of Darwin. It was already receding away to the SW of the airport when I woke up, but I did see a few interesting faint crawlers. I tried to video the lightning, but I don't think much of anything showed up as my video camera is not very light sensitive.

On Friday, I was able to finish work by 330pm, so I went for a drive down to Adelaide River ( a few of the brains trust suggested this location) stopping for a short time about 10km to the north of Adelaide river to watch a storm cell between Adelaide River & Batchelor. There appeared to be a decent rain shaft and I did hear some thunder and see 2 CG's.

I continued on to Adelaide River where there were some promising clouds to the west. I parked at the eastern end of the oval only to watch those cells to the west disintegrate. Small consolation was that it made for some reasonably interesting sunset photos.

Had a nice dinner at the pub, then consulted the radar. Seeing as the storms far beyond Katherine were not moving northwards, I drove home quite disappointed. I had a flight home to catch on Sat morning so couldn't afford to be late or delayed on the drive back to the airport.

To add insult to injury, I had missed out on the best storms for a number of years at home. Ah well, that's the way the cookie crumbles...
 

Orebound

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Jul 4, 2019
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Back in Darwin after spending much of the last week chasing further south in the Katherine, VRD and Barkley regions. This season is already well and truly overachieving from our perspective with probably some of the best storms we've seen in years, granted however we do spend much more time than the average person travelling around the joint making sure we find them so I can also understand how others perhaps don't see it that way.

Anyway, here's a couple shots from a pretty little coastal storm that was whacking away off Nightcliff right before I was about to go to bed tonight!

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