Nostradamus predictions for season 2006

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Nostradamus, May 6, 2006.

  1. Nostradamus

    Nostradamus First Runs

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    Aus snow season 2006 will be warm and wet to begin with but this will change in Aug for reasonable late season which will be a lot better.
    Best dates for snow will be Aug 23 and Sep 17&18

    My predictions are very conservative this year so total snow fall may be on the slightly higher side but I would not bank on it. The problem this year will be wash outs due to rain making base establishment hard. There will be many challenges ahead for snow makers-good luck to them.

    This year will be similar to past seasons years 97 and 98, difficult early but improving.

    Here are the dates and rough snow fall amounts:-

    June
    4Th 10-15cm SNOW
    5Th 5-10cm SNOW
    9Th snow /rain mix
    11Th-13Th Rain tending to snow(10 cm)
    19Th 10-15cm SNOW
    29Th-30Th 10-15cm SNOW

    July
    2nd Rain/snow
    7Th Rain tending to snow
    13Th 5-10cm SNOW
    17Th Rain first then 10-25cm SNOW
    25Th Rain (heavy at times)
    28Th Rain turning to snow 5cm total
    30Th 5-10 cm SNOW

    August
    4Th 10-25cm SNOW
    11Th Rain at first then 10cm SNOW
    14Th 5-15cm SNOW
    23Rd 20-30cm SNOW
    28Th 10cm SNOW
    Sep
    6Th 5-10cm SNOW
    17Th-18Th 10-20cm SNOW
    26Th 5-10cm SNOW

    As I said earlier the problem this year will be maintaining the snow base between snow falls from wash outs. If you’re going this year have a great time.
     
  2. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

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    I'll give you one thing, you don't mind putting your balls on the line. [​IMG]
     
    #2 Bugski, May 6, 2006
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  3. Snow Addict

    Snow Addict Part of the Furniture

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    Nostradamus - do you mind me asking how your previous years' predictions have turned out?
     
  4. Taipan

    Taipan Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nostro has a model that he has been working on. It hasnt been particularly accurate, but you have to admire nostro for the work that he has been doing and trying to do.

    If he gets it right he will jump to the top of the class.

    Good luck Nostro for this years predictions.
     
  5. Nostradamus

    Nostradamus First Runs

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    Snow Addict
    Do a search on actual snow dates,here is what I predicted last year.

    So here is the Nostradamus forecast for the 2005 season: -

    May 18&19Th 5-10 cm total

    June 3&4Th 5-15 cm total
    June 8,9&10Th 20-45 cm total
    June 15&16Th 25-65 cm total
    June 18Th 5 cm
    June 27Th 5 cm
    June 30Th 5 cm

    July 6&7Th 15-30 cm total
    July 13&14Th 5-15 cm total
    July 18Th 10 cm

    July 24Th-27Th R..n first maybe 10cm net

    Aug 3Rd-6Th 20-50cm total
    Aug 25&26Th 15-25cm total

    Sep 1St&2nd 25-60cm total
     
  6. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Thanks Nosey, it will be interesting to see how the season unfolds. Always love your work [​IMG] !
     
    #6 Stratus, May 6, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  7. snowcrazed

    snowcrazed One of Us

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    **************************************
    Moderator's note

    Deleted due to abuse.

    Read the forun guidelines
     
  8. Bato

    Bato One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    God i hope we get more snow than this. A good late season sounds good for me though. Got any more earthquake predictions Nostradamus, i remember you predicted a quake within 12 hours in indo last year.
     
  9. Placebo

    Placebo First Runs

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    Nostradamus, did your model predict these snowfalls we have had in the last month or so?
     
  10. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good to see you back Nosy! I loosely followed your calls in the early half of last year and found them in the paddock so to speak, probably ambitious - a few of the early fronts didnt come off. Will be interested to look more closely this year.

    I can only agree with mahtoh - Cock on block.

    Yeh, gee its looks pretty lean, but then you told us last year to enjoy it while we can because 2006 is gonna be a shocker. Reckon i better get out on the baw baws on tuesday for a thrash while i can. [​IMG]
     
    #10 mr, May 6, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  11. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Add a metre base for May to your projections and we'll be away ha ha ha ha
     
  12. pjs4

    pjs4 One of Us

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    I have been looking forward to your forecast all year. Thanks Nosey!
     
  13. AIT Crew

    AIT Crew First Runs

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    I have done some studies on the weather and would have to go against nosey's prediction (no offence). This year should see above avg falls with little rain if any after June. Season should extend with falls in mid to late Oct. Similar to the winter of 2000. Anyways, let hope it a good season - we are due!
     
  14. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Nosy: Basically a 50cm natuarl base til August, then maybe 1metres by the end!!!

    This year hope your totally wrong !! [​IMG]
     
    #14 skiflat, May 9, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  15. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    figure the only thing that can make Nosey horribly wrong is if that volcano in Indonesia does a pinatubo ASAP.
     
  16. AIT Crew

    AIT Crew First Runs

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    No volcano's in indo china necessary, winter will produce plenty of cherry. So much that the snow gods will want to come down and make their own snow angels. Faith my friends is what you need!
     
  17. Cliff-jumper_2000

    Cliff-jumper_2000 First Runs

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    AIT Crew you base your pridictions on what?
     
  18. AIT Crew

    AIT Crew First Runs

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    Current world weather trends, forecasts and all the rest. Not saying that I am the going to be right, but from what I have heard, read and studied its my prediction. Either way, we are currently off to a good start with early falls, although too early as such, and wont count for any base what so ever, by the time june hits, the weather has been doing what we want and only get colder and heavier as time goes (well I hope)
     
  19. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is the current forecast for a la nina situation this season? If so then on the back of the warmest years on record you'd have to back Nosy's prediction for rain. I don't need any model to tell you that.
     
  20. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    but you would have looked at a model to determine that it was not only the 'warmest years on record' but also to determine whether or not it was a la nina or not [​IMG]
     
    #20 Vermillion, May 9, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  21. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Having some of the warmest years on record has no correllation with bad seasons......

    2004 was the 4th warmest on record, but it was one of the best in the last 20 years.
     
    #21 Sandy, May 9, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  22. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    Nosy - I remember around this time last year you called that 2006 would be a shocker.

    Judging from your post, you have moderated this slightly. Can you elaborate on what trends/data have caused to you change your outlook?

    :cheers:
     
  23. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Here is Nosey's predictions for 2005, and what actually happened:

    June 3&4Th 5-15 cm total
    June 8,9&10Th 20-45 cm total
    June 15&16Th 25-65 cm total
    June 18Th 5 cm
    June 27Th 5 cm
    June 30Th 5 cm

    July 6&7Th 15-30 cm total
    July 13&14Th 5-15 cm total
    July 18Th 10 cm

    July 24Th-27Th R..n first maybe 10cm net

    Aug 3rd-6Th 20-50cm total
    Aug 25&26Th 15-25cm total

    Sep 1St&2nd 25-60cm total

    ---------------------------------
    Actual
    13-14 June 40cm
    20 June 20cm
    22 June rain
    1-2 July 10cm
    9-18 July 70cm
    5 August 5cm
    8-12 August 43cm
    16 August 11cm
    21-22 August 11cm
    31 August – 1 September 32cm
    11-13 September 28cm
    15-18 September 22cm

    Or if we superimpose them chronologically, with bold being the actual falls of snow:

    June 3&4Th 5-15 cm total
    June 8,9&10Th 20-45 cm total
    June 13-14 , 40cm
    June 15&16Th 25-65 cm total
    June 18Th 5 cm
    June 20 , 20cm
    June 22 , rain
    June 27Th 5 cm
    June 30Th 5 cm
    July 1-2 , 10cm
    July 6&7Th 15-30 cm total
    July 13&14Th 5-15 cm total July 9-18 , 70cm
    July 18Th 10 cm
    July 24Th-27Th R..n first maybe 10cm net
    August 5 , 5cm Aug 3rd-6Th 20-50cm total
    August 8-12 , 43cm
    August 16 , 11cm
    August 21-22 , 11cm
    Aug 25&26Th 15-25cm total
    August 31 – September 1, 32cm
    Sep 1St&2nd 25-60cm total
    September 11-13 , 28cm
    September 15-18 , 22cm


    Comments:

    June 8-16 matches if we take the low side of Nosey's prediction (40cm vs 45cm) but not the upper side (40cm vs 110cm)

    June 20, no match

    June 30- July 1-2, probably a match.

    July 6-7 no match

    July 9-18 I wouldn't call this a match (70cm in 9 days vs 5-15cm on 13-14th + 10cm on 18th)

    July 24-27. Maybe a match. There was rain around that time.

    August 5. no match (5cm actual vs 20-50cm)

    August 8-12. no match (43cm actual vs 0cm)

    August 16. no match (11cm actual vs 0cm)

    August 21-22. no match (11cm actual vs 0cm)

    August 25-26. no match (0cm actual vs 15-25cm)

    Aug 30-Sept 1. That's a match (32cm actual vs 25-60cm)

    September 11-13. no match (28cm actual vs 0cm)

    September 15-18. no match (22cm actual vs 0cm)
     
  24. Cliff-jumper_2000

    Cliff-jumper_2000 First Runs

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    very intersting stuff that sandy :cheers: for that
     
  25. Adsa

    Adsa First Runs

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    I can vouch for that rain in late july, prolly 24th-30th. Pretty sure the 10cm net is inaccurate though...maybe 2cm @ falls.
    I was the guy skiing with the umbrella.
     
  26. snowcrazed

    snowcrazed One of Us

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    Its just stabbing in the dark, moving on...

    Besides, all Noseys predictions are is ~10cm snow about once a week, sometimes he adds a little more to spice things up. Anyone can predict that.

    And the other thing is he doesnt say where the prediction is for! Vic? NSW? Tasmania...?
     
  27. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    nosey, total champ.

    although i hope for my own sake that some of your forecasts are wrong, some more snow in july would be beneficial mate [​IMG]

    :cheers: anyway, no one since fools would put their balls on the line the way you do.
     
    #27 Vermillion, May 10, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  28. AIT Crew

    AIT Crew First Runs

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    So thus far everyone is doubting everyone prediction. haha funny as.... be postitive peoples and pray to the snow gods. Offer them a beer and salted nuts and if they do not accept it within the 1st 2 minutes, that means they want you to have it and that plenty of snow will fall this winter (its an ancient customs practiced many moons ago by pioneers of skiing) ! I kid you not, i read it on the lid of the spring valley juices,
     
  29. Snowies

    Snowies One of Us

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    ~ a 1 in 4 hit rate for 05...
     
  30. slog_of_old

    slog_of_old Hard Yards

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    Thanks for the info, Sandy. No doubt mathematical analysis would show Nostradamus "forecasts" are statistically no better, and possibly worse, than an average random guess.
     
  31. Squidly

    Squidly One of Us

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    Anyone with a reasonable grasp of the weather, knowledge of historical patterns and cycles can make a stab at snow forecasting.

    Long range forecasting can be entertaining but its not informative, the best it can do is determine trends. Computer modelling is not reality, its at best a weak attempt to model a very complex system (weather) with multitudes of known and unknown variables.

    One person's informed snow guess is as good as the other I'm afraid.
     
  32. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    one point is - no matter the overall season, it is what conditions are like each and every time you go. As in 1981, heaps of snow, heaps of blizzards hence not too good for skiing, and, in contrast, 2005 was poor season for depth, but one of my best for years, e.g., heavy snow in Jindy all the way from Bredbo - let's wait and see, but also retain anticipation of that first slide....
     
  33. churchy

    churchy One of Us

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    yeah, i had a better season last year than in 04 because i did more weekend trips in 05. i spent most of my 04 time in one big chunk when conditions were quite good, but not the best of the season. 05 i was picky, only went the good weekends and scored better for it.


    still, nosy deserves kudos for putting his nuts on the block...
     
  34. Nostradamus

    Nostradamus First Runs

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    LOTTO is for people that can't do the Math....

    What do I mean by that welllll some think that picking snow fall dates is 1 in 5 or 1 in 3 i.e. we get average snowfall of 1 day in 7, that is a piece of cake to guess correctly.
    " Besides, all Noseys predictions are is ~10cm snow about once a week, sometimes he adds a little more to spice things up. Anyone can predict that."

    So let us do some VERY BASIC MATH - CHANCE

    Let's assume we are talking about June which has 30 days. Let us further assume we will have 4 days of snow in June. Say we have an opportunity of Guessing 4 dates out a possible 30 days.
    How many guess do we have to have to cover EVERY POSSIBLE combination????
    Some think it is 1 in 4 or even 1 in 16 or even 1 in 30.
    This is the real odds:-
    30x29x28x27/4x3x2x1 =27,405 to 1
    In other words to cover every possibility would take 27,405 guesses NOT 30 Guesses.
    That is why Lotto is so successful for the people that run it. 6 numbers out of 45 EASY PEASY.....
    Yeah right....

    Now if we are receiving 4 days of snow for each month and we have 30 days in June ,31 days in July ,31 days in August,30 days in Sep and 4 guesses for each month then the odds for each month are multiplied, we have a net chance of 1 in 743,558 THOUSAND BILLION.
    Of course if we pick a higher number than 4 for each month the ODDS are moderated but they still are not 1 in 4 or 1 in 16 or even 1 in 30 or even 1 in 864,900.
    I am very sure there are highly qualified Maths teachers or professional Actuaries here on this forum that will back up my calculations.
    :cheers: Nosy
     
  35. Snowies

    Snowies One of Us

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    So it really was a guess or am I missing the point. :p

    Actually the point was you were correct ~ 1 in 4 times. 25% skill or luck depending on who the reader of such a 'statistic' is.
     
  36. Nostradamus

    Nostradamus First Runs

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    No Not guessing at all but some are saying that and quoting odds of 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 of getting it correct with a guess.
    I have explained the method I use in past threads over the years, GUESSING is NOT one of them.

    What has been stated is you will get it right every month by simply guessing 4 lots of 4 days, that is A LOAD OF RUBBISH.
    In other words some are saying "I could do better by using the old sure fire method of guessing which has a chance of 1 in 4 of being correct"
    The odds of getting 4 days correct out of 30 days by selecting 4 random days is 1 in 27,405 NOT 1 in 4.
     
  37. Recon

    Recon Hard Yards

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    It's a common joke that statistics can be manipulated to make things seem better or worse than they really are.

    For example... let's take the opposite spin on things:

    If there are 4 days of snow in every 30, then the probability of any given day having snow is 1 in 7.5 (30/4).

    So if I randomly pick one day in a month and say there will be snow on that day, I have a 1 in 7.5 chance of being right - not too bad.

    If I randomly pick 4 days in a month and say they will have snow, I have a greater than 50% chance of being right for one of those days (1/7.5 becomes 4/7.5, or about 53%).

    See what I mean? [​IMG]
     
    #37 Recon, May 11, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  38. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nosey for the benefit of those who are newer in the Weather Forum, can you expalain your method again. I was trying to find that the other day for the benefit of some the newer people, but I couldn't find it.(I suspect it was 1-2 years ago and the thread would have been deleted)
     
    #38 Sandy, May 12, 2006
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  39. slog_of_old

    slog_of_old Hard Yards

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    "nostradamus".... your mathematics is about as flawed as your snow forecasting.
     
  40. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    I dont think there would have been this much critism to him if more snowfall days appeared on his predicts :p
     
  41. gjp2003

    gjp2003 First Runs

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    I think it's pretty poor form these people critisizing him for having the courage to have a go a alternate form of forcasting which could well be on the right track to more accurate weather forecasting. By the same token I'm sure some of these people were looking forward to his predictions, yet being he predicting a poor season these same people are now upset he didn't give the outlook the were after.
     
  42. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well, it doesn't look like Nosey's posting his "model" so here it is(thanks to shark for achiving it, from a year or two back)

     
    #42 Sandy, May 13, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  43. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Even if you don't like Nosey's "model", keep your posts friendly, otherwise don't post.
     
  44. Recon

    Recon Hard Yards

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    OK, so (simplifying here) the method is based on magnetic field changes... If so, given that the earth's magnetic field has weakened, do you think this will have an impact on snowfalls long-term? What about the South Atlantic Anomaly, how does this play into things?
     
  45. KL.

    KL. One of Us

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    Hi Nosy
    I appreciate your forecasting. I used it last year and found it to be reasonably accurate. Mind you not perfect, but then who's perfect. Certainly, not your critics. Maybe, they're perfect at being critical, hehehe.

    According to your forecast the end of the season looks reasonable. So not all is lost. Just won't be the best of seasons. Considering 2005 had 4metres of snowfall it was a very up and down season, also.

    rgds
    KL
     
  46. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    nosey , you are fantastic ,
    i think your predictions last year were pretty close given what you were trying to predict ,
    after all if people bothered to add up the amount of snow fall you predicted with the actual per month you were pretty close .
    well done
    also what people forget to remember is that you did this months in advance ..
     
  47. churchy

    churchy One of Us

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    2 weeks ago i was feeling like this couldn't be right, but looking at the charts for the next few weeks i'm seeing something in it - nosey, you smug bastard, you better not be right this time [​IMG] :out:
     
    #47 churchy, May 18, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  48. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    i've been a pretty strong nostradamus critic for sometime, however I think he's got this year pretty well sussed. I'm expecting a fair degree of SDS angst building up over the next 6-8 weeks.
     
  49. churchy

    churchy One of Us

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    with some pretty arbitrary melt rates and some big assumptions of rain damage (ie -5 or -10) here it is. it doesn't look pretty, does it?

    max depth = 117cm on august 28.

    2004 is shown in pink for reference of what a good season is...

    [​IMG]
     
    #49 churchy, May 18, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  50. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    As long as there is going to be snow i'm happy [​IMG] .
     
    #50 Stratus, May 18, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013