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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Nostradamus, May 6, 2006.
It's started early this year.......
I think you need to re-read my post .
Gotta be a record - just past middle of May.
I'm in Perisher on August 28th.
as am i
I'm refering to harbingers of doom.....
Normally the babies start around late June.
I think you have the wrong idea. We are merely discussing Nosy's forecast for this season.
Only at the end of the season can we truly reflect on how accurate or inaccurate his forecast was.
I think it is good that he is sharing it with us, well, especially because of the technique that he is using.
Considering, his forecast is well in advance of last year's season, it was reasonably accurate.
Actually, it would be very interesting if other people dicussed their long range techniques and forecasts, also. Not many people do long range forecasts.
So, I don't know anything about his method, but perhaps he could expand on it a little more for us, who not anywhere near as adept.
What on earth are you talking about???
He posted this season's forecast, and then after that he posted his LAST SEASON'S FORECAST. In response to a variety of posts, I compared his LAST SEASON'S FORECAST with what ACTUALLY happened. I made no value judgement but I just compared the forecast with the actual snow fall, and made an evaluation of its accuracy. What could be fairer than that??
You say you don't know anything about his method, yet, since Nosey DIDN'T post it himself, I COPIED his previous post(about 2 years ago) explaining his method, and posted it in THIS THREAD. I thought that people would appreciate seeing his method again.
Have a good week and ski season
sandy, nosey's forecast for last season was originally posted some time in may or june of last year. his predictions were in the snow forecasting comp, too (entered at the beginning of the comp and then not altered at all).
We already know all of that. Sandy was simply comparing the forecasts he made last season to what actually eventuated to gauge how accurate his forecast was. Seems like a pretty sensible thing to do to me.
sandy was implying that the 05 forecast hadn't been posted before. i figured he would have seen it before and i'm sure he has, i was just clarifying it to people who may not have been around this time last year and might be sitting around going "why would he post last years predictions after they've happened... err derr".
i agree, comparing last years forecast to last years actual seems like a pretty sensible thing to do to me, too.
Huh?! Did you miss Sandy's post on first page of this thread or something?
I don't know how you could think that Sandy was implying that it hadn't been posted, considering that Sandy directly compared Nosey's 05 forecast to what happened:
by "before" i was referring to "before this thread"... i know it's been posted before, i read it last year and paid attention to it. i know sandy has seen it before. he would have surely seen it last year and he posted it himself earlier in this thread.
all i was clarifying to everyone was that the 05 forecast wasn't just pumped out yesterday, it was made and published last year. Someone who is not a regular or a new member could be confused (as it seems klE was).
sorry to confuse you in the process, recon
lets get back on topic.
I am quite interested in the method that you use. If you don't mind, and if it is possible to explain it in a simple way, would you mind providing a detailed explaination of how the method you use, works?
Would it be to complicated for us to understand and try, ourselves.
Sorry guys, I am not interested in arguing. Nosy's method is much more interesting. Besides arguing is trivial, science is not.
I dont really care whether its Nostra or Moore or anyone else. Trying to pick a the whole season is chicken entrails stuff. Maybe as a scientific experiment we should all do a full prediction for the season and see whether a guess is any better or worse than any so called scientific method (and do this over a number of years). Then we can start to say whether its worth a thread or not.
I've only just joined this forum, so perhaps someone has already mentioned this particular article... but if not, there's an interesting article online at SMH regarding the 2006 ski season in Victoria (see below)
According to the article, ski seasons in Australia are meant to be reflective of ski seasons in Europe and North America. I'd like to check out some of past good ski seasons in Australian ski fields to see if they correlate with a similarly good season in the Northern Hemisphere.
If this theory is true, apparently we're in for a great ski season! Woo hoo! arty:
Careful with linking a John Moore article around here, you'll probably get flamed.
Agree with DMZ that no-one over the years has accurately predicted the season ahead. Any link to Northern Hemisphere is a big stretch (although skiing some Niseko pow would be nice after my Jan trip).
Best we can do is look at the charts and models and hope we can predict a week or two out. Like faith healers, clairvoyants and crystal ball readers, snow season predictors live on the same premise "HOPE".
PS: Heres hoping for a great season. Ski mags are out this week.
If our seasons reflect northern seasons, last year should've been kickass as well!
Edit: broken keyboard = h was missing!
Well said dmz.
I largely ignore predictions other than those 1-2 weeks in advance, nobody can predict the weather accurately past that and those that think they can are only star-gazing, there are simply too many factors and too many unknowns. I wouldn't make any holiday decisions based on that premise, its a case of taking as it comes and hope for the best.
One thing that can never be predicted is the X factor, those systems that develop rapidly that only give a couple of days notice and dump big time. Those systems can setup, make or prolong a season, without them you end up with a mediocre season, with them at regular intervals or at critical times a season can be made.
If any body has been watching the History channel on Fox, they have two programmes on the shuttle disasters, esp the first disaster where they launched in conditions where the temperature was well below their lower safety mark.... NASA has spent BILLIONS of dollars on advanced weather forecasting for both the Florida and California regions, and gave up trying to provide long-term (greater than six weeks) weather forecasting because they had scientifically concluded the forecasts were not significantly better than a random guess!!
Maybe Nostra should give them a call and let their experts know how it is really done!!
go back into the archives and have a look at the May 2000 dump- i'm guessing virtually no-one saw that coming until it was virtually on top of us, ie within 48-72 hrs of the event. Bet no-one got near the actual fall of 1m+
I agree with his dates in that article.
I skied in Austria in Jan 1964,65,and 66
The Olympics in 64 at Innsbruck required the Austrian Army to truck in snow for the downhill and it didnt snow once in the last 2 weeks of jan
the 1964 season was one of the best ever for Australia. My recollection of 65 and 66 is that they were good in Austria but poor in Australia
Not a good sample but to me it looks like good in Europe means not so good in Australia and vice versa
29-30th June Nosy made the call.
Not far off at all !
It has'nt snowed yet...
OK, well let's look a that. There unlikely to be a big fall between now and midnight, so:
Nosey's prediction for June:
4Th 10-15cm SNOW
5Th 5-10cm SNOW
9Th snow /rain mix
11Th-13Th Rain tending to snow(10 cm)
19Th 10-15cm SNOW
29Th-30Th 10-15cm SNOW
Totals for June are between 45cm-65cm.
And falls are apparently on the "conservative side"...But dont bank on it...
Despite which methods are used (scientific or otherwise) the random fluctuations make it pretty much guesswork more than a week or so out. Even then, as we've seen this season in almost every model there have been up-grades and down-grades almost on an hourly basis. Nossy, thankyou for your predictions and sharing your method with us once again.
We all enjoy Nosey's pre-season predictions.
However, there is no further debate needed on the 2006 model.
In his opening gambit, Nostradamus predicts "season 2006 will start warm and wet, changing in August". (See initial submission)
Well, it's been cold, bloody cold, and dry.
The model is flawed and is 100 per cent wrong to date. As has John Moore's model/guesswork.
I guess we're back to listening to meteorologists.
First things First
Far from being warm and wet, things have been cold and dry so far to kick off the season.
Wash outs aren't as much of a concern as loss from daytime heating and below average re-accumulation from fronts.
Very conservative Nosy, but I bet your on the money.
100% wrong hey? how did your predictions go??
Nosey, you can't have it both ways....
You clearly specified from 1st June to 28th, not 20cm-25cm, but 35cm-50cm.
You specified dates, not total for the month.
19Th 10-15cm SNOW
29Th-30Th 10-15cm SNOW
Falls creek 28cm
Which system was this system? Was it the 19th delayed by 4 days, or the second system early by 6 days?
Valid Point Sandy.
Nossy your model is for cyclic magnetic anomolies that have a period of 654.6 hours. Arguing that a given system will be a few days late or a week too soon is a bit like looking at a lotto ticket with six numbers on it that only missed by 1. The model certainly is interesting, but it doesn't seem to work.
I'm not praising nor pasting the accuracy of Nosey's method, I'm just laying the numbers down on the table.
Well well how ever you look at it its been a shocker so far.living in the pines 60 k/ms from selwyn the weather has been very mild so far except for a few frosts so far.as we live on tank water even the rains have been well below average for this time of the year.its 3.00 am in the morning and i just was outside getting some wood from the pile and not even a sign of a frost this morning.very mild for july.we are at about 980 metres and so far their has not even been a sign of sleet from the rains we have had so far.so everyone who has been saying its been a cold start i have to say no its been warm this winter so far compared to the last 3 or 4 winters.
Hmmmm dont agree with you at all pineman- I think it says it all that you were getting wood at 3am in the morning?? I live in Berridale and its been bloody cold especially June. Just about every morning in June we had a frost and going by the Cooma airport weather station our minimum temps were well down on average and our high temp was just about spot on. PS we had a frost this morning so I dont know how you didnt get one.
I'd love if we ended up with Nosey's predictions - we'd at least get rain, at least hints of moisture... right now we have NOTHING!
Bh which rock in berridale are you hiding in you have got to be kidding so what a frost in the mornings have a look at the day time temps.like today in tumba -3 to 14 not very cold for july bh i think you should go out side during the day and you will find the temps are very very mild for this time of the year.
PS BH some of us go to work at 3.30am in the morning while you is tucked away in you bed in these very mild temps.also BH if you live on tank water only like us the lack of mositure is not real great when you normally get good rains in winter.
By the way BH if you are going to work at 3.30am how does it say it all if you are collecting wood for the family before you go to work.and yes believe or not their was bloody no frost this morning and YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSS it is not cold.
Hey pineman do some reaserach and you will find June was indeed very cold. June was exceptionally cold with mornings of -7 and day temps not getting over 4c. So I dont know what rock you have been hiding under or is it that this warmish weather we have been having since the start of July (5 days) frying your short term memory !!!!!!!
Hey Pineman just so you no FROST is that crispy often white stuff that on the grass etc. It turns up when we get subzero temps which by the way if you did some reasearch you will find it actually got to -2c at cooma airport last night.
Bh yes it was -3 here yesterday morning and if you care to put your head outside right now it is very mild for the first week of july and we are at 980 metres and guess what their is no white crispy stuff outside and i will say again very mild for this time of the year.
And yes we got -6 and -7 last week but it got to 10-12 during the day very very mild.
nothing would make our household happy then to see white fluffy stuff coming from the sky but its a bit hard when its mild.Some rain would even be nice.
Just for your info Bh last year on the weather obs for the month of july the temps so far this winter have been 3-4 dgrees warmer than this time last year.
Bh which rock did you info come from on this side of the mts the average temp was 12.2 dgrees with the highest being 16.6 straight from the weather bom site you clown.even cabramurra average was 5.8 with the highest being 10.5 on tues the 20th.
Bh have a look at the weather bureau site for cooma for the mth of june average daytime temp 10.6 with the highest being 18.4 average low temps being -2.5 not that cold.