Nostradamus predictions for season 2006

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Nostradamus, May 6, 2006.

  1. pineman1962

    pineman1962 First Runs

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    Bh average temp for Perisher for the mth of june was 3.9 with a highest of 8 on tues and wed 20/21 so i dont understand your comment of it not getting over 4c.
     
  2. pineman1962

    pineman1962 First Runs

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    and yes bh it did get to -3.6 at cooma last nite but it also got to -6.6 on sat but climbed to 12.2 during the day also sunday from -2.2 to 10.9 and tues the 4th from -1.5 to 13.5 nearly summer in cooma.
    [​IMG]
     
    #102 pineman1962, Jul 5, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  3. Sago

    Sago Hard Yards

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    Great stats from both.
    I feel that it has been dry and cold with great snowmaking periods compared to last year.maybe not record lows but well into minusus none the less.
     
  4. BH

    BH One of Us

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    Pineman you are plain wrong!!! Every person on this site except you recoginises it was a VERY COLD but dry June. Temps for June were IN FACT BELOW average so I dont know what or where you are looking (you do realise the year is 2006 and you are not looking at something from 2005)- Take the tip chump JUNE was cold. Dont forget the month of July still is only 6 days old- So thats 25 more days to balance up the warmish start to July which I have no doubt it will go close to being an average July for minimum and maximum temps.
    So do everyone a favour Pineman get your fact straights and stop talking out of your *** :fart:


    ******************************

    Moderators note:
    Whether Pineman is right or wrong, Pineman shouldn't be subject to any form of name calling (or abuse)
     
  5. Cuppa

    Cuppa A Local

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    Cooma June Average: Min -1.4 Max 12.0

    Bom Data

    Cooma June 2006 Average: Min -2.5 Max 10.6

    BOM Data
     
    #105 Cuppa, Jul 6, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  6. Cuppa

    Cuppa A Local

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    Cabramurra June Average: Min -0.4 Max 4.9

    BOM Data

    Cabramurra June 2006 Average: -0.2 Max 5.8

    BOM Data
     
    #106 Cuppa, Jul 6, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  7. Cuppa

    Cuppa A Local

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    So Cooma has been colder, but Cabramurra warmer. A quick look at Perisher's data shows that the average minimum to be lower, but the average maximum to be at the average.
     
  8. BH

    BH One of Us

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    Thanks Cuppa- Just the info required to back up what I was trying to get across. :thumbs:

    Cooma maximums for this month are only .8 above average but the minimums are 2c higher then the average but with some super cold air arriving this week I am sure this will adjust. [​IMG]
     
    #108 BH, Jul 6, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  9. tomtankman

    tomtankman Addicted

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  10. BH

    BH One of Us

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    Thanks tankman. I think that make me right and pineman wrong [​IMG]
     
    #110 BH, Jul 7, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  11. tinfoilhat

    tinfoilhat First Runs

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    And I thought anyone who believed in the original Nostradamus was a nonce. This is too funny, thanks for the cheap laughs.

    Prediction model, staggeringly accurate, at least it impressed taipan.

    Here's a prediction, if you want to ski, move to Canada or NZ. Australia = water jump park.

    Or make yourself a hat like mine.
     
  12. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

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    No.
     
    #112 Bugski, Jul 7, 2006
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  13. BH

    BH One of Us

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    So mahtoh you think it was a warm June too??? So basically you think all those figures previously posted are phoney. [​IMG]
     
    #113 BH, Jul 7, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  14. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    This thread has gone WAY off topic.
     
  15. KL.

    KL. One of Us

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    Hi Nosy
    It appears that your snowfall estimates are resonably accurate (off course, not perfect(not yet)). Well done!!

    From some of the posts, it would appear that people are not interested in developing a long range forecast, that is reasonably accurate. Shame??

    Warm temps were a problem last year. It often snows during the day, and, any temps above 0C will result in sleet/rain.

    Lets 'hope' for even cooler temps ...
    rgds
    KL
     
  16. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    as a"general" summary
    bad June - correct
    bad early July with washouts a problem - on target
    reasonable August/Sept to come
     
  17. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Well his summary of 'warm and wet' to first half of the season has now come into line.

    Said this, Noisy did think this would be a late season from the start...and he maybe be looking right! (we all hope :p )

    :cheers:
     
  18. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

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    It was cool at low elevations. But there were few cool air masses. The cooling was from radiative cooling. He was referring to temps at altitude - where radiative cooling has a far less dramatic effect.

    So before you go slagging off on people, I would ensure you don't go looking like a fool first, if I were you.
     
    #118 Bugski, Jul 17, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  19. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    was waiting for the reply.. [​IMG]
     
    #119 Majikthise, Jul 17, 2006
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  20. frazels

    frazels One of Us

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    I want to steal Nos's crystal ball...

    Couldn't summarise it better.
     
    #120 frazels, Jul 17, 2006
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  21. Piste Again

    Piste Again Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I seem to remember that last year's Nostradamus prediction was that 2005 would be very ordinary and that 2006 would be a shocker.

    Not bad from over 12 months out.
     
  22. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    Was not sure where to ask this one, so I thought predictions about the entire season might be the go.

    Was wondering if there may be any correlation with northern hemisphere temps - currently in a heat wave - London 35C!!!!, plus that of Nth America. As they seem to be passing to this heat phase, is the precipitation situation there easing as they have had some flooding recently? If it is and drier heat is coming in, is there any effect on us in the south? I have heard people mention northern flooding leaves us poorly snowed upon, but I am wondering if there is a trend here and if the heat is replacing the wet up north, then are we in for an Aghast August and see some of those steep snow depth chart peaks?

    Also, is there any monsoon effects applying to the weather correlation created for us with the Himmalayers?

    Anyone see the drought in the Amazon on ABC last night?

    I note there is little to no elnino affect for the west of Sth America as it seems regularly dry, and that Johannesburg minimum temps are higher than one month ago - now getting into positives whereas regular -2 was the go.

    Plus, the vortex circulating Antarctica was apparently drawing closer to the pole when I last read about it some 18mths ago - is there any update info on this, as when I read the article I saw, there was speculation about this vortex actually drawing the low pressure systems further south.
     
  23. Nostradamus

    Nostradamus First Runs

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    Ok it's now time to put the poor side of the season to bed. From now on into Sep Snow falls are going to improve with a very cold mid to late Aug particularly the last week. I’m expecting some really nice snow on the 23Rd Aug.Early Sep to about the 18Th should also see reasonable snow fall for most resorts including Vic resorts which have copped a bit of a beating so far.


    :cheers:
    Nosy
     
  24. phall

    phall Hard Yards

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    I'll agree with that statement for ~20-25th August, looks promising.
    Here's hoping you're right about snowfalls in September, as that is when i'm headed to Hotham.
     
  25. KL.

    KL. One of Us

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    Hi All
    Just thought that I would display Nosy's July forecast and July actuals for perusal/comment

    July - Forecast
    2nd Rain/snow
    7Th Rain tending to snow
    13Th 5-10cm SNOW
    17Th Rain first then 10-25cm SNOW
    25Th Rain (heavy at times)
    28Th Rain turning to snow 5cm total
    30Th 5-10 cm SNOW
    Total 30/50cms - Average 40cms + a bit for 2nd/7th (say 5cms) = 45cms

    July
    05/7 - 2-5cms
    11/7 - 10-15cms + rain
    15/7 - 5-6cms + rain
    18/7 - 1cm
    23/7 - 0-3cms + rain
    24/7 - 0-15cms + rain (Thredbo had 15)
    25/7 - 0-15cms + rain (CP had 15)
    29/7 - 1-5cms (FC had 5)
    30/7 - 5-10-20cms (CP-T-FC had 20)
    31/7 - 5cms
    Total 30/90cms - Average 60cms - a bit for a specific resort (say 5-10cms) = 50/55cms
     
  26. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ok, let's look at it.....
    Remember, because Nosey makes predictions on the day, a call within 3-4 days or an end of month total would not be considered a hit.
    I'd go +- one day. This accuracy should be used because Nosey uses a 654.6 hour cycle(27.275 days, and a location shift)

    July - Forecast
    2nd Rain/snow ***no match
    7Th Rain tending to snow ***no match
    13Th 5-10cm SNOW ***no match(if you swing it +-2 days it might be a match)
    17Th Rain first then 10-25cm SNOW ***no match
    25Th Rain (heavy at times) *** close. I'd give the rain + snow a partial match.
    28Th Rain turning to snow 5cm total *** I'd call it a match
    30Th 5-10 cm SNOW *** I'd call it a match

    NOT forecast(no match):
    05/7 - 2-5cms
    11/7 - 10-15cms + rain
    15/7 - 5-6cms + rain

    Probably around 30-40% match
     
    #126 Sandy, Aug 3, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  27. tomtankman

    tomtankman Addicted

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    IMO a 30 to 40% match is next to useless. You could get better results by just guessing.
     
  28. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nosy to date has picked a trend for the season which is reasonably regular rain / snow events that produce little snow. He had indicated last year that this year was going to be a fizzer. The statistics dont reflect that because they are skewed for date.
     
  29. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Check out Nosy's predictions (or guesses) for August, done in may

    August
    4Th 10-25cm SNOW
    11Th Rain at first then 10cm SNOW
    14Th 5-15cm SNOW
    23Rd 20-30cm SNOW
    28Th 10cm SNOW


    Compare frog done in august
    3rd 5-15cm
    11th no snow but a bit cloudy
    15th-16th no call but looks 20-30cm possible
    he then calls a longer forecast of a fall aug 22
    no further calls
     
  30. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nosey goes in hard .
    To give a date /snowfall prediction is pretty gutsy.
    I just look at the big picture...and he's spot on.

    ie Bad til August then improving.

    To all the Christians ..argue with that.
     
  31. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    And the best thing about Nosy's forecast is my week at hotham 21-26 august.
     
  32. Recon

    Recon Hard Yards

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    #132 Recon, Aug 3, 2006
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  33. Shiraz

    Shiraz Hard Yards

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    the current scores on the snow tipping comp would suggest otherwise: (Note that this is for the top 10 forecasters:

    [​IMG]
     
    #133 Shiraz, Aug 3, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  34. KL.

    KL. One of Us

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    I forgot to say that the actuals incude all resorts in NSW & Vic ... quite a large area.

    So that needs to be considered, also ...
     
  35. KL.

    KL. One of Us

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    Hi All
    Thought that I would try to be more accurate with the actuals for July

    July - Forecast
    2nd Rain/snow
    7Th Rain tending to snow
    13Th 5-10cm SNOW
    17Th Rain first then 10-25cm SNOW
    25Th Rain (heavy at times)
    28Th Rain turning to snow 5cm total
    30Th 5-10 cm SNOW
    Total 30/50cms - Average 40cms + a bit for 2nd/7th (say 5cms) = 45cms

    JULY - T_ PB CP FC H
    05/7 - 05 02 05 02 02
    11/7 - 10 10 10 10 10
    15/7 - 05 06 05 05 05
    18/7 - 01 01 01 01 01
    23/7 - 00 00 00 01 00
    24/7 - 15 10 05 02 07
    25/7 - 05 05 15 01 05
    29/7 - 01 01 01 05 01
    30/7 - 10 05 05 20 07
    31/7 - 05 05 05 05 05
    TOTAL 57 45 52 47 53

    When you look at it in this more accurate light, Nosy was right on the money in terms of the overall trend for the month of July. [​IMG]

    Buller would be about 30 or a little higher [​IMG]

    For a specific day Nosy, as Sandy posted, is probably around a 30-40% match. [​IMG]

    So, just thought I would post this for your perusal and comments. [​IMG]

    I will try to be more accurate next month. [​IMG]
     
    #135 KL., Aug 5, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  36. KL.

    KL. One of Us

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    Hi Nosy
    Looking at the actuals, it would appear that it will be very difficult to forecast over such a large area? What are your thoughts?

    You have done exceptionally well with the general trend for June and July. [​IMG]

    I will try to keep better records for next month [​IMG]
     
    #136 KL., Aug 5, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  37. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    OMG!

    Noisy, was this the doomsday scenario you were talking about!?!!

    [​IMG]
     
  38. slalom pete

    slalom pete Hard Yards

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    If this was a painting it would be worth millions look at blue poles
     
    #138 slalom pete, Aug 6, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  39. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Wait...its all good now. Arh i thought something exciting was going to happen!
     
  40. PowderMadness

    PowderMadness First Runs

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    August
    4Th 10-25cm SNOW
    11Th Rain at first then 10cm SNOW
    14Th 5-15cm SNOW
    23Rd 20-30cm SNOW
    28Th 10cm SNOW

    Compare this to the long rang on Frog's site and what has actually occured this month. The predicutions have remarkable accuracy considering the forescast was in May.

    Friday spot on timing not quite the Volume in NSW but Baw Baw got 8cm+

    Forecast for Fall on Wednesday, Nosy had Thursday - Rain then snow.
    It is very warm in front of the system sugesting pre-frontal rain the turning to snow.


    Quote: "A weak change will bring some light snow and sleet to the higher areas on the 13th and this trend looks like continuing into the 18th with wet weather on the lower slopes and snowfalls up high likely.

    Looking long range I see around the 22nd-23rd of August and the 27th-28th as showing good signs for late a season falls of snow."

    Frog now has 13th Nosy had 14th albeit frog has the system continuing for a few days.

    Nosy has a big dump on the 23rd, frog has the 23rd showing signs of a good late season fall.

    Nosy had a fall on the 28th, frog now has a fall on the 28th.
     
  41. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Let's hope they're both right!
     
  42. Doonks

    Doonks Let's cook! Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    love this post from Page 1 !
     
    #142 Doonks, Aug 7, 2006
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  43. Recon

    Recon Hard Yards

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    See Mt Mayon recently? [​IMG]
     
    #143 Recon, Aug 7, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  44. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    Yeah - let's hope, because after the warm weather coming, there will be no real base after what I saw last weekend - so we will need it all.
     
  45. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Nosy, what the hell is that supposed to mean ?!

    Are you predicting bigger problems now as well as the weather ?!
     
  46. Nostradamus

    Nostradamus First Runs

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    Hi All
    Thought I'd stick my head up for a few more pot shots re my forecast of a WARM season this year that I posted back at the beginning of MAY.
    NO takers but where are all my DETRACTORS???
    Seriously I have taken a lot of CRAP over the years from the “UPPER ESHOULON of TRADITIONAL SCIENCE “nothing wrong with that as that is expected when one " CHALLENGES THE SYSTEM" with an alternative theory or approach to a problem.
    So why do I persist against the SYSTEM simple I'm on the side of the BATTLER not the Elite that controls the resorts or the $1000 a day accommodation. I will always keep my forecasts FREE no matter what and against all ridicule, harassment put downs etc etc.
    I made known last year that season 2006 was not going to be a very good year for snow and encouraged those that may listen to make full use of season 2005 and save their money for a better year. I was laughed at and put down big time for this comment, I took those comments on the chin because I really knew what was going to happen this year and so far that has come to fruition---
    UNFORTUNATELY for boarders and skiers.
    Some one asked me what 2007 would be like and I replied that the season 2007 would be the last thing you would be worried about. The thing is that I was not JOKING. Your lives will be turned upside down and it will be PLANNED by those IN CONTROL please be aware of that. How do I know what the future holds? Good question but then again I make it my business to look down the road a bit. [​IMG]
    My detractors will espouse that I’m LUCKY, I have used the odds i.e. A BAD season had to come eventually etc etc but the acid test to all those who attempt to make fun of me now or in the future is why did they not make a bet that I was wrong BEFORE THE EVENT????????????
    By that why did they not predict a BUMPER season 2006 when I was predicting a rather sombre season?
    Hmmm go back and have a good look at the ones having a go at me earlier this season where have they disappeared to???
    Please do not take me the wrong way I have absolutely no pleasure in gloating over a bad season so far, I realise some peoples livelihoods are on the line here and I do understand the hardship some will face because of it, most people don't give a rats about the people that make their ski holiday a worthwhile event but these people have to make a years income in a few months and that has been basically been culled to nothing.
    What annoys me more than anything is some of the BLOOD SUCKER forecasters that PREDICT a BUMMPER season to the mums and dads KNOWING FULL WELL it is going to be a DISASTER!!!!
    Frog I'm not talking about you ok.

    Alright let’s see if we can get a few cm of nice DEEP stuff to end the season from hell with.
    If you went to the snow this year I hope you had a good time anyway.
    : cheers:
    Nosy
     
    #146 Nostradamus, Aug 22, 2006
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  47. Benn0

    Benn0 Old n' Crusty

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    Hmmm, are we talking economic here?
     
    #147 Benn0, Aug 22, 2006
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  48. Bato

    Bato One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Alright Nosy lets us know whats ganna happen here, those in control hey, so i assume you mean government. what are they going to do. drop a nuke lol.
     
  49. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    nosy happy to verify that late september 2005 you made comment that season 2006 would be tres ordinaire.. you also suggested your market mate predicted a stock market crash by years end 2005..

    so i figure he owes you a beer. [​IMG]
     
    #149 Majikthise, Aug 23, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  50. Squidly

    Squidly One of Us

    Joined:
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    So is his snow prediction for the end of August still relevent? ie for the 23 Aug (Now 24/25 Aug, give 1/2 days grace) and the 28 Aug.