Nostradamus predictions for season 2006

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Nostradamus, May 6, 2006.

  1. BH

    BH One of Us

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    How many cones did you smoke before posting that Nosey.

    I thought this was a weather forum not a Government conspiracy chat site. Keep it real people!!!!
     
  2. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Well the snowfields are a safe distance from major capital cities, so if something does happen, if your skiing up there, your probably going to be safe. [​IMG]

    To pick apart the "comments" a bit more

    "Your lives will be turned upside down and it will be PLANNED by those IN CONTROL"

    So you can assume that the Government is going to do something. Will it be in Australia or Overseas, who knows.

    I was thinking it could be because Labor will probably win the next election and with Beazley at the fort...enough said.. But the election wont be until August 2007 roughly...

    So lets start the scaremongering:

    Nuke War
    Chemical War
    Oil Crisis/Bans

    Care to add to the list ?
     
    #152 skiflat, Aug 23, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  3. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    BH: I FULLY agree with you, damn that's scary [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] :p :p

    As for the snow predictions, its not that hard to "predict" that roughly every 7-10 days a snowbearing front will generall hit the alps ?

    I think I read that somewhere....
     
    #153 skiflat, Aug 23, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  4. Benn0

    Benn0 Old n' Crusty

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    I think he's talking about recession, but that won't be until mid next year. :p
     
  5. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Let's keep it friendly and on topic.....
     
  6. Recon

    Recon Hard Yards

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    Yup, let's see if we can. I'm waiting for...

    ... your forecast 20-30 cm today. So far there's been 2 cm. [​IMG] The rest of the week isn't looking good either, so good luck with the 28th coming off. The cynic in me thinks that your post today is just a diversion to cover up how your forecasts haven't matched reality - and by forecasts I mean all the specific dates and snow amounts you've posted, not just some generalised statement like "this year will be warm" - you can't have it both ways and say "look I was right" while ignoring the forecasts that didn't work out; luckily the cynical part of me is small (and thus I also won't be preparing for next season by putting on a tin foil hat to avoid those government spies arresting me for Thoughcrime before they destroy my life, or something).

    As for the "season from hell", I can say with honesty that this season has been an enjoyable one for me. This is not the worst season ever and it is possible to have made the most of it (and this is coming from someone who didn't have a choice in when they could go to the snow this year). The doom and gloom scenario is when there's no skiable snow, and that hasn't been the case. Of course, it could have been better; it always can be. [​IMG]

    I do however agree with you about the evilness of forecasters who predict a bumper season months in advance, but only because I don't believe you can determine months in advance how good a snow season is going to be (at least I've seen no conclusive evidence so far).

    So, I think it's time for someone with snowfall records from this month to compare the reality to what was forecast and see how accurate this method is. [​IMG]
     
    #156 Recon, Aug 23, 2006
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  7. choc

    choc One of Us

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    This statement from your first post to me shows how wrong you were. I don't recall any MAJOR rain events and as I see it the major problem this year was the blocking highs f***ing everything up. Many challenges for the snowmakers? With all the highs and cold overnight temps they have had an easy year if you ask me. [​IMG]
     
    #157 choc, Aug 23, 2006
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  8. slog_of_old

    slog_of_old Hard Yards

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    Well, well, well

    "Nostradamus" (and I use that term very loosely) is busy telling us how accurrate has was/is and how the world is going to end or whatever...

    Now lets see...
    Nostradamus prediction for 2006: Warm and wet
    Alpine Weather thus far in 2006: Cold and Dry

    ..........gee, that's close!! [​IMG] [​IMG]

    Ignoring this week's tropical weather, June and July have been exceedingly cold, as was the second half of May. For the first time since 1998, no serious rain events have hit the alpine regions, ignoring some fronts in 2002-2003 that had significant pre-frontal rain before delivering huge dumps of snow.

    This season has been saved in NSW and Hotham/Falls by record snow-making. Talking to the resprt staff, snowmaking conditions this year have been ideal for unprecedented amounts of time- so where's the challenge in that??

    At least he has predicted the end of the world or some other major (cryptic) event, so I can sleep peacefully over the next year or so. [​IMG] [​IMG]

    Boy, I think we may have a schizo here!!! [​IMG]
     
    #158 slog_of_old, Aug 23, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  9. BlueMountains

    BlueMountains First Runs

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    Um, probably skiing New Zealand.
     
    #159 BlueMountains, Aug 23, 2006
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  10. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    I have finally worked out what Nostra means

    "Your lives will be turned upside down and it will be PLANNED by those IN CONTROL"

    www.ski.com.au will no longer have Forums!!!!

    Ian D and Richard are in control, they have planned it and I know many of us will have lives turned upside down when the Forums close :fishing:


    PS: There are NO actual plans of this [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
    #160 skiflat, Aug 23, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  11. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    And Dee if you look at his 2005 predictions versus 2006 you'll see there is no correlation in the frequency of what he picks so I think we can throw that accusation out.. gawd knows I was very vocal with it years ago.

    emulet as for cold and dry... dry yes ,I think the cold bit was done in another thread somewhere. Cold clear nights yes but overall cold???
     
  12. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    If you are going to criticise Nosey's accuracy, keep it factual and to the point, not personal.
     
  13. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Oh the irony .....
     
    #163 dawooduck, Aug 24, 2006
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  14. susmind

    susmind First Runs

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    Nostradamus knows the future coz a little bird flu in his window & told him to look out for the 3 mad stuffed toys of the whirlpool...

    [​IMG]

    But at least the end of the world doesn't mean the end of sking.
    I hear the snow conditions are fabulous on Neptune & Pluto...
     
    #164 susmind, Aug 25, 2006
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  15. adminvb

    adminvb First Runs

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    Not Pluto, it's no longer one of the Combined Interplanetary Travel Agents favoured destinations. The resort is too small and the infrastructure is very, very basic. It's out until they can get a major cash injection from Spacely Sprockets or PBL.
     
  16. Yardsale

    Yardsale Part of the Furniture Moderator

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    I reckon this crap season has a lot to do with the pool of abnormally warm water sitting off the coast of NSW. Check out the SST anomoloies back to Feb etc. We were having small snowfalls leading up to the season, and then this pool turned up and -blam- end of snowfalls and systems slipping away to the south.

    http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html

    I have to say that I have not had the time to put together any formal analysis of this - I just have not had the time.

    Anyway, Nosy, good on you for sticking your neck out and suggesting other theories.
     
    #166 Yardsale, Aug 25, 2006
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  17. KL.

    KL. One of Us

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    Hi All
    Just posting August results for discussion

    Well, no resorts reached 55cm!!!

    Probably the only thing August actuals indicate was lots of snow making, injuries and a very low amount of natural snowfall?
     
    #167 KL., Sep 1, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  18. michael_bt

    michael_bt First Runs

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    I'd like to congratulate Nostradamus.

    He's been clever in working on a model, bold in posting the predictions and patient in the face of some harsh criticism.

    I personally think he's qctually done qute a reasonable job. Don't get me wrong, i know that the dates and amounts don't line up that great, but he's picked the general trend for the season months in advance. Think about extended GFS - can't be relied on even at +144hrs. At 2 weeks out it's a joke.

    Yes he's not quite on the money when it comes to predicting exact dates and snowfall amounts. But when I compare what's actually happened this season to Nosy's work, it lines up every bit as well if not better than extended GFS (which, remember, has predicted DUMP after DUMP after DUMP at >+144hrs).
     
  19. Recon

    Recon Hard Yards

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    Picked the general trend?

    I wouldn't categorise this season as warm and wet - it's been pretty much the opposite from what I've experienced. As an example, in July the average maximum temperature for Mt Hotham was below the long term average, while receiving only 96.2 mm of rain (as opposed to the long term average of 132.5 mm). In August, 52.6 mm of rain, compared to a long term average of 157.8 mm! That's a third of the long term average - hardly a "wet" season, and hardly a significant positive change in August (taking into account that the peak snow base is usually reached in August/September anyway, so that August will be "reasonable" should be no surprise).

    In fact, as I'm writing this I just noticed the Local News box on the side of the site - the current top headline reads "Driest August on record and driest winter ever for some" - go figure.

    Again, this doesn't really match what happened. Record amounts of snow making were done - conditions have actually been pretty good for it. You only have to look at Falls Creek and other resorts to see how much snow making has helped and how amazingly successful and productive they've been. There haven't been major rain events like there were last year, in fact there's been a lot less moisture overall.

    If those predictions were conservative I'd love to see the optimistic versions. In summary, I see no evidence to suggest that the model is useful or accurate. The predicted snow days and amounts don't match and the general season prediction was wrong. Forecasting months out, although "bold", has no purpose if the predictions don't hold true.

    And just for the record, I'm not trying to attack Nosey - I'm just looking at the facts and comparing them to his prediction, and not seeing a correlation.
     
    #169 Recon, Sep 2, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2013
  20. KL.

    KL. One of Us

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    Hi Nosy, I will try and keep accurate figures for September.
    It appears that I have made a mistake with CPass
    ... 26/8 25cms = 79cms should be 26/8 0cms = 54cms

    Actually, your comments on the actuals would be excellent ...
    thanks
    KL
     
  21. keefy

    keefy First Runs

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    Hate to say it, but Nosey was right on the button, give or take a couple of centimetres and days (although the latter are rather meaningless with such a shocker.

    Mind you I still managed 6 or 7 days of real enjoyment out of my 15 day's thus far (and unlikely to increase!).
     
  22. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    #172 MisterMxyzptlk, Sep 4, 2006
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  23. churchy

    churchy One of Us

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    the problem we face are open statements. One sentence does not a season make.

    while it was colder than the average, the colder temps can largely be attributed to high pressure, calm inversion events not cold fronts.

    we did have below average rainfall in many areas but when it was wet it was too warm more often than not. we've had several significant rain events with freeze levels at 1800M+

    the problem is trying A) describe a season with 1 sentence and B) trying to critique a prediction model based on 1 sentence of its output.
     
  24. Recon

    Recon Hard Yards

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    OK, let's have a look at what's happened recently. According to Nosey's model things were to be wet and warm to begin with but "this will change in Aug for reasonable late season which will be a lot better". Looking at Mt Hotham's snowfall recordings (as these are the only ones I have on hand), I'm not sure I'd agree that this was correct.

    August opened at 46 cm snowbase and ended at 40 cm (with a peak 53 cm that lasted two days). I'd hardly call this "a lot better". It was essentially a flat line.

    Let's take a look at how August and September have matched reality:

    <table><tr><th style="text-align: left; width: 100px;">Date</th><th style="text-align: left; width: 100px;">Base (cm)</th><th style="text-align: left;">Details</th></tr><tr>
    <td>Aug 1</td><td>46</td><td>(nothing predicted, but 11 cm of snow overnight)</td></tr><td>Aug 2</td><td>46</td><td>(nothing happened)</td></tr><td>Aug 3</td><td>46</td><td>(nothing predicted, but 1 cm of snow overnight)</td></tr><td>Aug 4</td><td>MISSING</td><td>(10-25 cm of snow predicted; never received an e-mail from Mt Hotham but evidently there must have been a couple of cm as the next day shows 47 cm base - still nothing like the 10-25 cm predicted, plus there was rain, so no match)</td></tr><td>Aug 5</td><td>47</td><td>(nothing happened)</td></tr><td>Aug 6</td><td>45</td><td>(nothing happened)</td></tr><td>Aug 7</td><td>43</td><td>(nothing happened)</td></tr><td>Aug 8</td><td>43</td><td>(nothing happened)</td></tr><td>Aug 9</td><td>41</td><td>(nothing happened according to the e-mail, but something must have as the next day shows the base up a couple of cm)</td></tr><td>Aug 10</td><td>44</td><td>(nothing happened)</td></tr><td>Aug 11</td><td>43</td><td>(rain first then 10 cm of snow predicted; nothing happened)</td></tr><td>Aug 12</td><td>43</td><td>(nothing happened)</td></tr><td>Aug 13</td><td>43</td><td>(nothing happened)</td></tr><td>Aug 14</td><td>43</td><td>(5-15 cm of snow predicted; nothing happened)</td></tr><td>Aug 15</td><td>41</td><td>(nothing happened)</td></tr><td>Aug 16</td><td>41</td><td>(nothing happened)</td></tr><td>Aug 17</td><td>41</td><td>(nothing happened)</td></tr><td>Aug 18</td><td>43</td><td>(nothing predicted, but 6 cm of snow overnight)</td></tr><td>Aug 19</td><td>47</td><td>(nothing predicted, but 5 cm of snow overnight)</td></tr><td>Aug 20</td><td>46</td><td>(nothing happened)</td></tr><td>Aug 21</td><td>44</td><td>(nothing happened)</td></tr><td>Aug 22</td><td>43</td><td>(nothing happened)</td></tr><td>Aug 23</td><td>45</td><td>(20-30 cm of snow predicted; 2 cm of snow overnight + rain - too far off to be considered a match)</td></tr><td>Aug 24</td><td>45</td><td>(nothing predicted, but 7.4 mm of rain)</td></tr><td>Aug 25</td><td>43</td><td>(nothing predicted, but 2 cm of snow overnight + rain)</td></tr><td>Aug 26</td><td>53</td><td>(nothing predicted, but 11 cm of snow overnight)</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 27</td><td>53</td><td>(nothing happened)</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 28</td><td>48</td><td>(10 cm of snow predicted; nothing happened)</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 29</td><td>46</td><td>(nothing happened)</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 30</td><td>42</td><td>(nothing happened)</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 31</td><td>40</td><td>(nothing happened)</td></tr><tr><td>Sep 1</td><td>38</td><td>(nothing predicted, but 21.2 mm of rain)</td></tr><tr><td>Sep 2</td><td>25</td><td>(nothing happened)</td></tr><tr><td>Sep 3</td><td>18</td><td>(nothing predicted, but 36.8 mm of rain)</td></tr><tr><td>Sep 4</td><td>9</td><td>(nothing predicted, but 9 mm of rain)</td></tr></table>

    So to recap...

    August... Aug 1 failed to predict (11 cm of snow), Aug 3 failed to predict (only 1 cm, who cares), Aug 4 predicted 10-25 cm but only a couple of cm fell plus rain - no match, Aug 11 predicted 10 cm but nothing happened, Aug 14 predicted 5-15 cm but nothing happened, Aug 18 failed to predict (6 cm of snow), Aug 19 failed to predict (5 cm of snow), Aug 23 predicted 20-30cm but a couple of cm plus a little rain - no match, Aug 24 failed to predict rain, Aug 25 failed to predict (only 2 cm, who cares anyway; plus rain), Aug 26 failed to predict (11 cm of snow), Aug 28 predicted 10 cm of snow but nothing happened.

    September... Sep 1 failed to predict substantial rain (21.2 mm), Sep 3 failed to predict substantial rain (36.8 mm), Sep 4 failed to predict rain (9 mm).

    Now if the model he is using is accurate, it definitely should have indicated the rain in the first days of September... especially considering that more rain fell in Mt Hotham over the first 4 days of September than in the entire month of August. Excusing all the other false positives and false negatives, how did the model miss that?

    This is why I think the model is totally inaccurate - looking at the actual figures, nothing add ups.

    But now we wait and see what happens in the rest of September. Nosey's model shows 5-10 cm of snow on the 6th - indicators are good for this! Further ahead the predictions are for 10-20 cm on the 17/18th (could happen - fingers crossed) and 5-10 cm on the 26th; we'll wait and see.

    Looking even further ahead, let's not forget this one: "Your lives will be turned upside down and it will be PLANNED by those IN CONTROL please be aware of that."

    OK. [​IMG]
     
    #174 Recon, Sep 5, 2006
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  25. Nostradamus

    Nostradamus First Runs

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    This season is NOT OVER just yet. I did say that the season would change in Aug for a reasonable late season well as they say watch this space.
    We are only in the BEGGINING of Sep.I would not quite give up on this season, things may well change on the 6Th Sep lets keep watching with interest. The 17Th and 18Th of Sep should also give us a nice fall of up to 20cm.
    As far as your lives being turned upside down well we will have to wait and see [​IMG]
     
    #175 Nostradamus, Sep 5, 2006
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  26. Recon

    Recon Hard Yards

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    Yup, I agree - anything can (and does) happen in September. Although the rain in the first few days of the month has done some real damage, history has proven that it can all turn around in just a couple of days (and as I've mentioned before September is often when the peak snow base is reached).

    Your prediction for tomorrow could end up only being half or less of what actually falls, and if that's the case then things are far from over. I'm hoping for a huge dump that will give September 1992 conditions [​IMG]

    If that happens, and your prediction for the 17/18th comes off, then things should be sweet :cheers:
     
    #176 Recon, Sep 5, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2013
  27. keefy

    keefy First Runs

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    Recon...

    Slight issue with August snowfalls....

    17th August, 17CM's at PB, nothing daytime of 18th....

    other than that scenario looks (unfortunately correct).

    As for whether the season is over or not, depends on where or how you want to Ski, and whether the progs become fact and can repair damaged, as long as the heart hasn't been knocked out of the resort operations.

    Humbly hoping I am wrong.
     
  28. BH

    BH One of Us

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    Nice one nostra- Yep there was a change in late August we had the hottest day in the alps on record for August and the beginning of a rather large rain event. That is not the begining of a reasonable late season. I am sorry but some people on this site think your opinion has some cred. NOT ME!!! Just bring out that dart board and keep guessin mate.
     
  29. slog_of_old

    slog_of_old Hard Yards

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    No point going on with it, BH.

    Any sensible person can see his "predictions" based on his "secret model" are no more than a guess, and a pretty bad one at that.

    My guess is that it's just one of the regulars here having a bit of fun.
     
  30. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    No, Nosey has been around for about 3 years, and he's dead set fair dinkum about his "model".

    Judge as you may, as to whether it works or not....
     
  31. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Well he did say "in for a better half of the season"...maybe the next half of the season has just begun today!

    He did say last year in October...2006 is going to be shocking...it was. Just that...warm and wet for June was a bit wrong. Also a lot of his dates and predictions are not on track.

    I'll beleive his 'general outlook', but not precision dates.
     
  32. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nosey's model relies on a 654.6 hour cycle and a lattitude shift, so precision dates are the basis of his predictions.....
     
  33. Look2Windward

    Look2Windward First Runs

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    Nosey,
    should we all still hold on for that 'reasonable late season'? The snow has started to fall, unfortunately the resorts are closing.
     
  34. TC

    TC Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    didnt happen
     
    #184 TC, Jan 16, 2007
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  35. Alex.C

    Alex.C One of Us

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    October:
    [​IMG]

    November:
    [​IMG]

    December:
    [​IMG]

    That didn't happen?
     
    #185 Alex.C, Jan 16, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  36. Recon

    Recon Hard Yards

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    Was the snow still there a couple of days later in each of those?

    Three snow days make not a "reasonable late season".

    That's just playing the Selective Photo Game. For example, Nosey made a "very conservative" prediction of 10-25 cm of snow for 4 days before this photo was taken. For the record, no snow fell at all.

    [​IMG]

    After two years of holding the model's predictions up against the real data I'm entirely unconvinced. Everyone's entitled to an opinion however [​IMG]
     
    #186 Recon, Jan 17, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2013
  37. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    Actually, Nosey wimped out at the beginning of 2006. I vividly remember him posting at the end of 2005 that 2006 would be an absolute stinker.

    He softened his comments in the lead-up to last season.. maybe he let the optimism around here get to him.

    Not sure if the forum database will go back to 2005, but in my mind Nosey is worth paying attention to. Sometimes I can't quite figure out if he's taking the p*** or not... but he's quirky and inventive (he?) and I'll always read his posts.
     
  38. TC

    TC Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Gulmarg Resort Kashmir
    sheer brilliance
    we ski in JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER
    snow outside these months are not counted
     
    #188 TC, Jan 17, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  39. Piste Again

    Piste Again Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
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    I can vouch for that. He may not have gotten dates and quantities right, but he was as close (or closer) than most of the pundits with the overall assessment of the season, and that was a few months in advance too.

    I always read his posts with interest, and only a small grain of salt.
     
    #189 Piste Again, Jan 18, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  40. Alex.C

    Alex.C One of Us

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2003
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    Location:
    Canmore
    sheer brilliance
    we ski in JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER
    snow outside these months are not counted </strong></font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Speak for yourself. [​IMG]
     
    #190 Alex.C, Jan 18, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013