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NSW 2007 Weather Prediction

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by SAL, Jan 11, 2007.

  1. SAL

    SAL Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    Found this on the Weatherzone forums here (also Victoria 2007 prediction to be found there):

    January & February
    Unsettled conditions are likely later in January and early in February. Hot and mainly dry conditions are likely during February, especially later in the month.

    March & April
    With El Nino likely to breakdown during March, I think we may see from mid March a few good ECLs or other events producing heavy rain along the NSW coast. (with the north, central, and south coasts/ranges likely to receive a similar amount of rain, tending a little higher in the north). Regions west of the ranges are likely to receive below average or average rain from fronts and troughs.
    April should be a very wet month across the state (tending wet in the west) with a continuation of 'solid' rain events in NSW.

    May & June
    Then as we head into May we should see a continuation of wet conditions on the coast with similar conditions likely to March/April, though generally weaker the further you head west.
    During June we should start to see NW Cloudbands moving southeast across the country bringing average or above average rain to areas west of the ranges, though as usual NW Cloudbands will not deliver much rain to the coast (generally less than 10mm) so drier conditions are likely during June on the coast though a few strong fronts will bring some rain (but still below average), with less rain likely the further north along the coast you go but these strong fronts are likely to bring very good snow to the Snowys and a few good snow dumps on the southern and central ranges which should please those snow chasers.

    July & August
    Cold and dry with little snow is the name of the game for July in NSW, due to conistant highs moving across southern WA, southern SA, VIC, and southern NSW, which will block or weaken fronts before they hit NSW, with the Snowys likely to only get one decent dump of snow during the month.
    August should start off like July though a wetter period of weather will return with moisture-laden fronts and troughs delivering good widespread moderate falls to the state with average or above average falls likely everywhere in NSW. A few good falls of snow will occur earlier in the month.

    September & October
    September will be dry in northern NSW and a little wet in southern NSW, with nice falls of snow after patchy and sporadic falls of snow in the mid-season. As September ends we should see the first mild outbreak of thunderstorms in NSW with most places likely to receive a thunderstorm by months end.
    October will be very warm (a little above average but nothing overly extreme) and humid, often the two will combine with the right ingredients and bring some nice strong outbreaks of storms across NSW with plenty of potential for severe storms, with average falls likely across most of the state (except SE NSW, where below average rainfall is likely).

    November & December
    November should be wet on the ranges due to a number of days with low wind shear. The west will receive alot of storms too, though wind shear should be a lesser problem. The coast is likely to receive a below average amount of thunderstorm activity but this will be compensated by a few onshore shower events and a heavy rain event (probably associated with a trough producing storms in western parts of the state with moist onshore winds producing heavy showers/rain on the coast, a situation that is probably not too dissimilar to the event that occured as we started this year).
    December will be a mixed bag of hot, cold, stormy, wet, and dry weather. We may see quite a number of "perfect" setups for thunderstorm activity but moisture is likely to be a problem especially before the strong fronts/troughs with the weaker ones likely to have the moisture available and so activity may not be overly severe at first during the month, though two or three severe outbreaks are likely mainly later in the month. There will be below average to above average falls (with these occuring haphazardly, so some areas near each other will receive vastly different monthly totals).
     
    #1 SAL, Jan 11, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  2. Mrstr_Chief

    Mrstr_Chief One of Us

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    who forcasted this? a professional or a wannabe
     
  3. Gimble

    Gimble First Runs

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    Looks like they were both wannabe's and they both state that they could be completely wrong. Hopefully thats true because it doesn't paint a very pretty picture for this years snow season.
     
  4. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    Reading ...it is like an amateur scare mongerer with limited meteorological knowledge which can be very dangerous. Outlining the weather as such at this time is a bit of guesswork....actually I would imagine mostly guesswork. BOM provide 3mth outlooks which could be considered more reliable. It appears as though this could be yet another weather bastard post to a forum as part of the general negative consensus reached in recent times, mostly since the advent of more detailed measurement via the interent. Instead of providing interesting detail, weather stats are more and more being used in a negative sense....not good for anyone. I would like to say best season in years for skiing in 2007.....let us wait and see. The type of weather we get can lead to very unexpected events....say, sea level snow in 2005....now did anyone predict that in late 2004 or in early 2005, so what if we get 109cm in four days at the beginning of August in 2007....can't tell yet....a bit of a gamble.
     
  5. TC

    TC Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    looks like a guess