Observations NSW/ACT - a Wet End to Winter

Steve777

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After a lengthy dry spell, a trough forms off the NSW coast on August 26, with Easterlies bringing showers to the coastal parts. After a break on Wednesday, a second trough, possibly with a closed low, develops. This brings heavier showers. Snow is possible East of the Divide with the second trough, including the Blue Mountains and Southern Tablelands.

This event is mostly coastal. Forecast totals are modest and uncertain, but they better than anything most of us have seen since early July. Some forecast precipitation totals for August 26-31 are:

Newcastle: 20 - 55
Sydeny : 30 - 80
Wollongong: 35 - 85
Penrith : 15 - 55
Cessnock : 10 - 30
Bathurst : 3 - 18
 
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Snowmaker7

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Jul 25, 2013
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ACCESSG and EC lining up pretty well this morning in terms of the amount and distribution of rainfall. GFS completely different scenario with the heaviest rain centre some 450km further north up the coast. Will still have to wait another couple days to see where this rain will fall. Looking at Windy, the heaviest rain on EC is around Berry where they have up to 180mm to fall in the next 10 days.

bomm.PNG

ec.PNG

gfs.PNG
 

Trail Blazer

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There is a bit more zest to the Sydney Forecast this afternoon with more rain and now the chance of storms tomorrow Friday and Saturday. At the same time those higher forecast totals down south have backed off.

Edit: must have been another quick update to the south coast - precip upgrades now
 
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rocketboy

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wow these latest mm totals for south coast are noah esque after the last six months.

how much wind is expected over this event.
 

AshestoAshes

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Wow the trough line is almost clear as day looking at the dew points. At mudgee under a westerly influence is at -1.8 degrees meanwhile Merriwa under the easterly is at 8.1 degrees. An 88km difference although, Nullo mountain is close to mudgee although the altitude is incomparable.
 

Wavey

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ECL or any kind of low has flopped on GFS and EC. Weak onshore showers are on the agenda now.

Still a chance if EC is right, but GFS has that high pressure system way too close to allow an ECL to form.
 
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Steve777

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I'm getting light showers on and off tonight. The shower cells are looking a bit more organised on the radar than they were this morning. They are also developing further inland before moving away to the SE. Although most of the action is still out to sea, there might be a few useful totals by morning.
 
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nfip

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ECL or any kind of low has flopped on GFS and EC. Weak onshore showers are on the agenda now.

Still a chance if EC is right, but GFS has that high pressure system way too close to allow an ECL to form.
have been keeping an eye on the H.
4 dayer its hinting it may position to nz and cradle the low.
Tasman sst anoms also leaning in support development.
gut feel tho agree with your comments.
moist onshores.
IDG00074.gif

upload_2019-8-27_1-54-39.png
 
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Wavey

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GFS still looks quite different to BoM there and is quite adamant that there will be no low. In fact today may well be the best day for rainfall with slow moving heavy showers from the NE. Could be quite a surprise for some areas I suspect (ie. Cronulla)

EC still has over 100mm for the next 5 days in this area which would be extremely welcome. Gut feeling tells me that EC will fall closer in line with GFS and drop precip amounts in subsequent runs. I hope I'm wrong tbh.
 

rocketboy

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I take it this Noah forecast is still on. No changce in BOM or Norway forecast. Looks like we have a small window tomorrow to fix our windows. Why don't tradespeople turn up when they say they will. You'd almost think there were doctors the way they leave you waiting ....
 

Steve777

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Well, today's turned out to be a bit of a damp squib, even a damp squid, except that it's not that damp. The roads are dry, it hasn't rained since before dawn, the sun's out and it's a fine, partly cloudy day.

That might change. Showers have been sitting over the Cronulla-Port Hacking area for hours. Cronulla South has picked up 32 mm since 9:00AM. Other showers mostly further South are hardly moving. If a cell does develop overhead, it might stay for a while and deliver a big total.
 
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nfip

Cold 'n Rusty
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Yes , Updates have pushed it further N.
OCF just now come into line with the models with the most of precip Friday.
Must have an odd / alternate update timing.
 

Wavey

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Will be nothing more than moderate rain with isolated heavy showers on Thursday and Friday for the Illawarra, IMO. Might manage 20-30mm out of it all up
 

Steve777

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I saw this event as coming in 2 rounds when I started this thread. Round 1 has mostly failed except in a few localised areas like Sydney's North yesterday and a bullseye around Cronulla today. But we still have round 2 coming after a rest day tomorrow. The BOM is forecasting about 30-70+ mm over the three days Thursday to Saturday for coastal parts from around Newcastle to Jervis Bay.
 

Targus 100

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I saw this event as coming in 2 rounds when I started this thread. Round 1 has mostly failed except in a few localised areas like Sydney's North yesterday and a bullseye around Cronulla today. But we still have round 2 coming after a rest day tomorrow. The BOM is forecasting about 30-70+ mm over the three days Thursday to Saturday for coastal parts from around Newcastle to Jervis Bay.

Mmm Braidwood forecast went from a possible 80mm or so to 9mm...…just a slight downgrade yet again we are so dry here it is beyond a joke, can only see what happens though.
 

AshestoAshes

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I back AXS-R though the only model we can trust to not mess up short-range patterns. The models have really struggled for this event, guess we'll see tonight. GFS has some convergence towards the AXS-R scenario right now.
 
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nfip

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I back AXS-R though the only model we can trust to not mess up short-range patterns. The models have really struggled for this event, guess we'll see tonight. GFS has some convergence towards the AXS-R scenario right now.
They all do struggle with these trough ECL set-ups.
and agree AXS-R is pretty reliable.
* 4 day rule albeit 72hrs
hence Donza is a fan.

Any intel on the lag with OCR it's modelling seems wack in time-scale with the others.. ?
I don't often go there but thought it was dependable thru it's calc of the other models data combined then provides it's own forecast ?
 
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Homer

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I've got 62 concrete piers to pour tomorrow morning.
If the rain could hold off till after midday, it would be much appreciated.
Don't sen it down till after that time, please Huey.
 
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Winterwolf

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Temp in Bowral early Friday forecast to get to 2 with precip. Marginal but might see some sleet, especially in a heavier shower. The Oberon Plateau looks good for a few settled cm.
 
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Wavey

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I'm still not convinced we will get that much here in the Illawarra, although the northern suburbs may do quite well. 20-30mm here still IMO.

Looks much better for Sydney and the Central Coast IMO, particularly the Northern Beaches and southern CC I think.
 
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Steve777

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For what it's worth, 40-95 mm is forecast for Sydney for Thursday --> Saturday, about the same but a bit more for the Central Coast, a bit less in Newcastle and Wollongong.

Round 1 mostly disappointed. There were heavy falls - out to sea, locally coming ashore. Round 2 is forecast to penetrate further inland, with 35-67 mm at Penrith and 30-55 mm at Cessnock.

We'll see how it goes.
 
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AshestoAshes

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Some moderate drizzle out here as per my PWS, temps peaked at 14.6 here at 9:52am. Rain definitely setting in here, bit annoyed that there isn't enough instability to see bands maintain strength after coming ashore.
 
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