Predictions NSW/ACT - Post Christmas Heatwave Dec 26 to early January

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davidg

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Thanks for the correction. It's true though it was opened at the Olympic Regatta site, is it not?
:thumbs: Yep it's just up the road from my work at the regatta centre. It's generally a bit hotter than the Richmond site although in a strongish Westerly there doesn't really seem to be much difference
 

Untele-whippet

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Tomorrow’s looking tops!
The doomcast up here includes, smoke, raised dust, NW winds, dry lightning, headless horsemen and stupid heat!
Tinder box stuff
7D24A497-8549-4C05-93BD-3C941568D676.jpeg

9781309F-0AD9-4ADD-8A14-A00B0FB65BAA.jpeg

Native flora so heat stressed.
Still active fire nearby.....
 
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Lady Penelope

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This is just awful. Canberra has been over 30 degrees for weeks now and this coming week looks terrible, particularly with the smoke. I can’t remember another summer like this. Like others, I’m putting bowls of water out for the birds. I so feel for our wildlife with creeks and waterholes drying up and no grass to speak of.
 
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jonathanc

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This is just awful. Canberra has been over 30 degrees for weeks now and this coming week looks terrible, particularly with the smoke. I can’t remember another summer like this. Like others, I’m putting bowls of water out for the birds. I so feel for our wildlife with creeks and waterholes drying up and no grass to speak of.
Last summer was far above the Canberra average (and record) temps, and now this one is even hotter so far. Probably looking at well into the second half of January before we get a sustained break from the heat...
 

bengarden

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Last summer was far above the Canberra average (and record) temps, and now this one is even hotter so far. Probably looking at well into the second half of January before we get a sustained break from the heat...
I know right. The margin of departure from the average is so huge that you wonder how it's possible. In fact, I wonder if we're going to see any summers close to or below average anytime again here in Canberra. The trend certainly doesn't suggest it. The amount of trees and vegetation that are absolutely hammered from this makes me think we're going to see longterm changes that won't ever be restored. I get its worse further west obviously but its still shocking. Back on Topic - Once again today the thicker smoke has set in. Haven't opened our house up for about 10 days now with aircon blasting constantly to keep the temp down inside with the relentless heat. Only a mild 39 before our back to back 40+ days end of week. It's a worry when a day at the average max temp of 26 looks like a cool day now.....
 

jish33

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At least one more week for temps near or at 40 degrees.
Some of the gum trees are noticibly dying. Canberra seems to have permanently transitioned into a semi arid climate.
 

Adaminaby Angler

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At least one more week for temps near or at 40 degrees.
Some of the gum trees are noticibly dying. Canberra seems to have permanently transitioned into a semi arid climate.
To be fair, it always was semi-arid or borderline semi-arid (~500 mm annually, on average); likewise the Eastern Monaro. It's just even more semi-arid now.

Much greener out west, especially astride the South West Slopes (Tumut, Batlow, Burrinjuck, etc.). I've managed approximately 900 mm this year, thus far; chiefly from March and July (both >100 mm)—it's really the east that's suffering most at these latitudes, not the west. One word: foehn.

The grass is now somewhat parched and "wheat-like", as opposed to the healthy emerald green back in winter and spring, but that's to be expected here; summer's usually our dry-season down south, and by a long shot.
 

Steve777

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Sydney's East hasn't been that hot. Here's how we're tracking for maxima since Dec 25, wth distance from the sea in km:

Bellambi (0):___ 25, 24, 24, 23, 23
Sydney OH (7):__ 27, 27, 27, 29, 26
Olympic Pk (20): 29, 31, 30, 34, 31
Penrith (55):___ 32, 36, 36, 41, 36
Mt Boyce (98):__ 26, 29, 31, 34, 35. Add 7 or 8 to get sea level equivalent.
Bathurst(166):__ 31, 34, 35, 37, 38. Add 4 or 5 to get sea level equivalent.

On the coast we’ve had a run of fine days with temperatures average by recent year standards, with ugly smoky skies from the afternoon of the 27th. Going by Olympic Park, the experience of most Sydneysiders has been a run of warm but not unduly hot days. Penrith is having a ‘normal’ heatwave with smoke suppressing temperatures on the 28th & 29th. Up on and West of the ranges it’s a different story - hot with a capital H.

I headed West today for the first time in a while. It’s brown skies and weak orange sunshine across Sydney, smokey at ground level West of about Quakers Hill but pretty much smoke free at ground level East of about Parramatta. Not particularly hot, the car thermometer at 11:00 was reading 27°.
 

Kimski

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This is just awful. Canberra has been over 30 degrees for weeks now and this coming week looks terrible, particularly with the smoke. I can’t remember another summer like this. Like others, I’m putting bowls of water out for the birds. I so feel for our wildlife with creeks and waterholes drying up and no grass to speak of.

Do not like :(

It's all so depressing. As sad as it is that people have lost property in the fires I'm probably sadder about the loss of habitat and wildlife in the fires as well as from the drought and high temperatures. I imagine there's also some pretty major mental health issues for those on the land as well :cry:
 
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skichic

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At least one more week for temps near or at 40 degrees.
Some of the gum trees are noticibly dying. Canberra seems to have permanently transitioned into a semi arid climate.
Just rode around the lake. Levels are 1/2m lower than a couple of weeks back.
 

climberman

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Tomorrow’s looking tops!
The doomcast up here includes, smoke, raised dust, NW winds, dry lightning, headless horsemen and stupid heat!
Tinder box stuff
7D24A497-8549-4C05-93BD-3C941568D676.jpeg

9781309F-0AD9-4ADD-8A14-A00B0FB65BAA.jpeg

Native flora so heat stressed.
Still active fire nearby.....
Incredible pics mate
Even here on the coast we’ve trees dying back from heat stress and drought.
 

Snow Blowey

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I know right. The margin of departure from the average is so huge that you wonder how it's possible. In fact, I wonder if we're going to see any summers close to or below average anytime again here in Canberra. The trend certainly doesn't suggest it. The amount of trees and vegetation that are absolutely hammered from this makes me think we're going to see longterm changes that won't ever be restored. I get its worse further west obviously but its still shocking. Back on Topic - Once again today the thicker smoke has set in. Haven't opened our house up for about 10 days now with aircon blasting constantly to keep the temp down inside with the relentless heat. Only a mild 39 before our back to back 40+ days end of week. It's a worry when a day at the average max temp of 26 looks like a cool day now.....

It's people like you that are the problem.

No need for house to be locked up and aircon on. Open the house up at night and let it cool down. Close up again early am. Maybe turn aircon on for a few hours late afternoon before opening back up late afternoon. The way people lived before air conditioners. You may find you body adjusts and you don't need air conditioning so much.
 
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Kimski

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It's people like you that are the problem.

No need for house to be locked up and aircon on. Open the house up at night and let it cool down. Close up again early am. Maybe turn aircon on for a few hours late afternoon before opening back up late afternoon. The way people lived before air conditioners. You may find you body adjusts and you don't need air conditioning so much.

You're assuming it's cool outside overnight. When it doesn't get under 30 degrees overnight it interferes with your sleep patterns.

Not to mention the fact that it used to be that houses were smaller and lawns and gardens were bigger so the heat island effect wasn't nearly as large in urban areas.

For the record, in 'normal' summer heat your suggestion is exactly what I do but this summer isn't 'normal'.
 

skichic

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It's people like you that are the problem.

No need for house to be locked up and aircon on. Open the house up at night and let it cool down. Close up again early am. Maybe turn aircon on for a few hours late afternoon before opening back up late afternoon. The way people lived before air conditioners. You may find you body adjusts and you don't need air conditioning so much.
I’d normally agree, I’m an open the doors person. But we’ve had continuously hazard levels of smoke as well. You can smell the stench as soon as the door is opened. Normally I have the place locked up with aircon from around 4-8, when the sun hits my western facing balcony and living area. Then open it right up. But that would fill the place with smoke the past few weeks.
 

skichic

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And now the 40 km/hr winds have cleared the smoke and I’d love to open up my doors. But it’s 39c and the western sun has just hit the balcony door, so time to pull the blinds.
 

Flowin

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Can't say I can recall seeing so much deep purple tending to black on the enhanced infrared sat image. 1500 AEST. Err, image two post below, as I hit the post button before image was fully loaded.
 

dawooduck

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Jindabyne is shite at the moment, hot, smoky, dusty with a parching wind.

Nothing special in so much frying weather
 
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bengarden

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It's people like you that are the problem.

No need for house to be locked up and aircon on. Open the house up at night and let it cool down. Close up again early am. Maybe turn aircon on for a few hours late afternoon before opening back up late afternoon. The way people lived before air conditioners. You may find you body adjusts and you don't need air conditioning so much.
Dude. Hazardous smoke many times the safe level is not when you open your house up. Any other time when we don't have weeks of continuous smoke we ALWAYS open up our house at night to cool it for free. And FYI optimum sleeping temp for proper nights sleep is around 21-22 degrees so if we need to run our Air Con at night to feel properly rested so we're effective at work/gym next day we will, just in our bedroom on a small efficient split system. Our house is properly insulated (walls/underfloor/walls ) and has double glazing/triple cell insulating blinds, we're not in a brick veneer McMansion that needs aircon all the time because the house is crap. We also have panels that offset most of our aircon use so when we need it we won't feel guilty using modern technology. I suppose you'd have a go at us for driving our electric Tesla car as well because maybe "that's not how you think we should power a car" or "thats not how we did it in the old days". I'd also contend that the kinds of weather conditions becoming more common in our summers here are well outside historical norms and what people "used to do" when it didn't get as consistently hot. We're running at 5 degrees above average max temps for this month so I'd forgive a few people that use their air con a bit more than a "normal" year
 

Greysrigging

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Dude. Hazardous smoke many times the safe level is not when you open your house up. Any other time when we don't have weeks of continuous smoke we ALWAYS open up our house at night to cool it for free. And FYI optimum sleeping temp for proper nights sleep is around 21-22 degrees so if we need to run our Air Con at night to feel properly rested so we're effective at work/gym next day we will, just in our bedroom on a small efficient split system. Our house is properly insulated (walls/underfloor/walls ) and has double glazing/triple cell insulating blinds, we're not in a brick veneer McMansion that needs aircon all the time because the house is crap. We also have panels that offset most of our aircon use so when we need it we won't feel guilty using modern technology. I suppose you'd have a go at us for driving our electric Tesla car as well because maybe "that's not how you think we should power a car" or "thats not how we did it in the old days". I'd also contend that the kinds of weather conditions becoming more common in our summers here are well outside historical norms and what people "used to do" when it didn't get as consistently hot. We're running at 5 degrees above average max temps for this month so I'd forgive a few people that use their air con a bit more than a "normal" year

Being acclimatised helps immensely.... 40 years in Darwin and I rarely use the bedroom aircon ( except I succumbed Xmas night 30.2c and humid and not enough beer for the day as I was the nominated 'sober bob' )
 

skichic

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Being acclimatised helps immensely.... 40 years in Darwin and I rarely use the bedroom aircon ( except I succumbed Xmas night 30.2c and humid and not enough beer for the day as I was the nominated 'sober bob' )
And if you couldn’t open windows and doors due to smoke?

BTW 30.2c phht in my day that was spring ;)
 

skichic

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no question.... close her up !
That's 30.2 minimum.... a new all time record for the Darwin Airport site... the humidity and dew points made it filthy....:thumbs:
Yeah I lived in FNQ for some years. The humidity sucks.
 

rocketboy

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on yr.no some rain for early next week is appearing in forecasts for several SE locations.

Not yet in BOM forecast range.

in BOM date range now - looking ok for the coast - maybe a bit over the southern fires now breaking out west of Bega.

meanwhile, this just popped up and I had to screen shot it. one of the many joys of the braidwood - cooma road are the names. And Slap Up Fire Trail at Hell Hole is one of the best.

00070922.jpg
 

Rainbow Spirit

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I've never seen the place around here so dry, and I'm 68. I bought myself a 16L stainless steel bucket to help water my parched plants, and the water just disappears into the ground like a sponge in a few seconds, and we have heavy clay soils here. The weir on the Georges River at Liverpool has stopped flowing and has dropped 20cm below the top of the weir, I've never seen that before.

Let's hope we all get some decent rain soon.
 

climberman

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in BOM date range now - looking ok for the coast - maybe a bit over the southern fires now breaking out west of Bega.

meanwhile, this just popped up and I had to screen shot it. one of the many joys of the braidwood - cooma road are the names. And Slap Up Fire Trail at Hell Hole is one of the best.

00070922.jpg
I’ve ridden the Slap Up.
Good country. Not good for fires.
 

Steve777

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Here are sea surface tempertures about 10 km off Sydney's Northern Beaches over the past week. Even at the end of December, sea temps haven't yet consolidated above 21°.

Sydney SST.JPG


I haven't swum in the ocean this year but I believe that the water's are still quite chilly, probably colder than the above chart, even though 25° water reaches Sydney's latitude about 100 km off-shore. There's a clear pattern in the above chart, upwelling brought about by North Easterlies that basically haven't stopped since Christmas Eve. The cold waters probably strengthen the sea breeze, which would cause a sort of upwelling feedback loop until major changes like a Southerly overwhelm it.

----

It's pleasantly cool here, feeling a bit damp, with a smokey sky. Beach cams show it foggy or smokey on the beach with a red sun. The Sydney Harbour Bridge flags show a light NW'er. I can't smell smoke here, although it was a bit smokey yesterday evening.

Stay safe everyone in the hot, severe/extreme fire danger day ahead.
 
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teleroo

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Strong NNW'er has been blowing across Bald Hill and has been blowing for a few hours now. Humidity still high but dropping. Temps warm. Will take a bit for a sea breeze to displace that lot.
Screenshot_20191231-080925~2.png
 
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Steve777

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Sydney has just completed its driest December on record, with just 1.6 mm from light showers overnight Christmas Eve / Christams morning. It's a similar tale across the Metro, Hunter and Illawarra, with most sites clocking up under 5 mm for the month. Penrith and Richmond, possibly other sites, haven't recieved a drop of rain for the month. Normally at thiis time of year onshore winds and thunderstorms (remember them?) guarantee regular rain East of the Divide.

---

Sydney sites are now mostly up into the low 30s, with a sea breeze trying to get going on the coast. Unlike recent days, there is now a distinct smokey smell here this morning. Not the burning rubbish tip smell but fresh burning bushland. Either way, it's not good. Visibility is down, with hazy skies and distances.
 

skichic

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So strange to wake to mild weather and clear skies in Canberra. Still clear but the wind has picked up, so I’m sure the smoke will roll in at sometime.
 

Donza

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Sydney has just completed its driest December on record, with just 1.6 mm from light showers overnight Christmas Eve / Christams morning. It's a similar tale across the Metro, Hunter and Illawarra, with most sites clocking up under 5 mm for the month. Penrith and Richmond, possibly other sites, haven't recieved a drop of rain for the month. Normally at thiis time of year onshore winds and thunderstorms (remember them?) guarantee regular rain East of the Divide.

---

Sydney sites are now mostly up into the low 30s, with a sea breeze trying to get going on the coast. Unlike recent days, there is now a distinct smokey smell here this morning. Not the burning rubbish tip smell but fresh burning bushland. Either way, it's not good. Visibility is down, with hazy skies and distances.
Wollongong is hot. The westerly is winning up to around 100 metres from the coast.
Windy and smokey.
 
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Rainbow Spirit

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I'll be watching the Captains Flat radar today, and I'll keep an eye on the smoke plumes as they appear to be a good indicator of the winds and the approach of the change.
 

Steve777

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Richmond has just cracked 40°. Most Sydney sites are in the mid 30s. A sea breeze is up and running on the coast.The change passed through Montague Island (off Narooma) a little while ago.
 

skichic

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Smoke has returned to Canberra along with 55km/hr winds.
 

Rainbow Spirit

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The change came through Moruya Airport around 11:25am, and dropped the temp from 37.9c to 23.1c in 30 minutes, winds were gusting 63kmh from the SSE at 11:30am. At that rate the change should pass through Sydney around 5pm +-.
 
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Luke_Up

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Full on bushfire weather now - 44 degrees here in Rouse Hill - North West Sydney with constant gusty winds. I see Penrith has reached 44.9 so far and the 850hpa temps are ‘only’ 27 degrees from what I can find.

Makes you wonder what the temp could have reached on 21st December when 850hpa temps rose to 31 degrees - but ground level temps in the Sydney basin were suppressed by thick bushfire smoke. 49 degrees? o_O
 
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