Predictions NSW/ACT - Post Christmas Heatwave Dec 26 to early January

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davidg

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Bouncing around a bit in the weak NW'ly, 45.5c now. All time record of 46.9c doesn't look like its under threat but I wouldn't rule it out entirely.
 

Steve777

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Artarmon a little while ago:

2019-12-31 13.22.53.jpg


Equal car thermometer record. Felt hot as hades outside.

Sydney Olympic Park has maxed at 43.3° so far.
Banjstown 43.6°
Penrith 46.2°
 

PMG

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A fire broke out about an hour ago not far from us. Hope they can get a handle on it.
 
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Rainbow Spirit

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It would make it a lot easier if we all used our real suburb/locality addresses.

Anyway it looks like the southerly change is falling apart around Wollongong, such a pity, I was looking forward to a real Southerly Buster!
 

Homer

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It would make it a lot easier if we all used our real suburb/locality addresses.

Anyway it looks like the southerly change is falling apart around Wollongong, such a pity, I was looking forward to a real Southerly Buster!

Agreed. I'll change mine to reflect that, although when I make a post about current conditions, I always state where I am.
As for the southerly, it looked as though it had a real kick earlier. I still think it will. They always do. Bombala is just 12 deg's atm and has been quite cold all afternoon.
 

Steve777

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Change reached Bellambi 16:48. Maximum gust 61 km/h. It will reach the Sydney CBD around 18:00.

Lots of records broken around Sydney, including long term stations Bankstown, Richmond (old + new sites), Camden and probably Parramatta.
 
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Homer

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Change reached Bellambi 16:48. Maximum gust 61 km/h. It will reach the Sydney CBD around 18:00.

Lots of records broken around Sydney, including long term stations Bankstown, Richmond (old + new sites), Camden and probably Parramatta.

It's still 41.8 here Steve.
Change will probably arrive here around 6.30 - 6.45.

Strangely, the smoke cleared here this afternoon, for a short while and I could see some clouds. Probably the first time in a week or so that I have seen a cloud. Bizarre.
 

Seafm

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It's still 41.8 here Steve.
Change will probably arrive here around 6.30 - 6.45.

Strangely, the smoke cleared here this afternoon, for a short while and I could see some clouds. Probably the first time in a week or so that I have seen a cloud. Bizarre.
Can confirm clouds. At least they are real ones albeit clouds with no rain in them.
 
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rocketboy

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@Jellybeans et al - what's the go with this small rain on the SE coast on monday ish. BOM arvo updated also so so - with yr.no going soft earlier today. but still hanging in there for some precip.
 

Lady Penelope

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Rain WAS predicted in Canberra but didn’t really eventuate. We watched thick acrid smoke roll in from our vantage point on Lake Burley Griffin around 8pm.

Mt Ainslie disappears ....

CAB4AF7D-3621-4685-8567-72D28E976393.jpeg


And Commonwealth Ave bridge is going, going ...

FD6D0D7E-1971-4031-8E5A-12ECFBA566E2.jpeg


... gone.

7E8CA447-D68D-40F0-9E96-C497838B7D60.jpeg


It’s like pea soup fog out there now. Opening windows would be dangerous.
 

Kimski

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Rain WAS predicted in Canberra but didn’t really eventuate. We watched thick acrid smoke roll in from our vantage point on Lake Burley Griffin around 8pm.

Mt Ainslie disappears ....

CAB4AF7D-3621-4685-8567-72D28E976393.jpeg


And Commonwealth Ave bridge is going, going ...

FD6D0D7E-1971-4031-8E5A-12ECFBA566E2.jpeg


... gone.

7E8CA447-D68D-40F0-9E96-C497838B7D60.jpeg


It’s like pea soup fog out there now. Opening windows would be dangerous.

That’s shocking Lady Penelope :(

Sydney got all the publicity for their air quality but nobody seems to care about poor old Canberra. They probably think it’s just for politicians and cashed up public servants but ordinary people live there as well including my cousin and her baby. I’m worried about them.

Here in Adelaide we just had one day of smoke and it was terrible. It got into my house, even with all the doors and windows closed and as soon as I went outside I started coughing. I can only imagine what it’s like for you.
 
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Lady Penelope

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That’s shocking Lady Penelope :(

Sydney got all the publicity for their air quality but nobody seems to care about poor old Canberra. They probably think it’s just for politicians and cashed up public servants but ordinary people live there as well including my cousin and her baby. I’m worried about them.

Here in Adelaide we just had one day of smoke and it was terrible. It got into my house, even with all the doors and windows closed and as soon as I went outside I started coughing. I can only imagine what it’s like for you.
Thanks for the kind words, @Kimski. It’s awful. Air quality reading in Tuggeranong is over 3000 according to ABC news this morning. We just can’t go outside and smoke is seeping through cracks in the doors. It’s just apocalyptic with the fires. When is it going to rain???

The view from my window right now

12F337DE-AED8-4246-8795-3F734E4CA6F6.jpeg
 

Steve777

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Here's the satellite view over SE NSW and Eastern Victoria. The white is mostly marine layer cloud, while the brown gunk is smoke:

NSW WZ Layers.JPG


The heat goes into recess for a couple of days on the coast, although it continues inland, with Canberra forecast to have 33+ maxima until the 5th and Penrith having ony one sub 30 day (tomorrow) before the 6th.

At this stage Saturday looks like a rerun of yesterday, with temperatures inland nudging records again, after which we switch into a more typical Summer pattern, with a return of rain and thunderstorms and an end to the heat on the coast for the time being. I wouldn't be surprised if, in the Sydney Test, Monday 6th is washed out - but by persistent light showers rather than any deluge.

We shall see.
 

Kimski

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Thanks for the kind words, @Kimski. It’s awful. Air quality reading in Tuggeranong is over 3000 according to ABC news this morning. We just can’t go outside and smoke is seeping through cracks in the doors. It’s just apocalyptic with the fires. When is it going to rain???

The view from my window right now

12F337DE-AED8-4246-8795-3F734E4CA6F6.jpeg

I’ve just had an argument with my mum after expressing concerns about my relatives in Canberra. She told me I should stop worrying about everything and they would be fine because they are ‘smart people’. She also thinks this year’s weather is just an anomaly and everything in the future is going to be ‘fine’.

Full disclosure, I do suffer from depression and take medication but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to be upset and worried about the current situation in this country.

I’ve even contemplated moving to New Zealand because I’m not sure I want to live here anymore. Apparently I’m ‘crazy’ according to her.
 

Steve777

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...I don’t think it’s unreasonable to be upset and worried about the current situation in this country.

I’ve even contemplated moving to New Zealand because I’m not sure I want to live here anymore. Apparently I’m ‘crazy’ according to her.

Your concerns are reasonable and you're not crazy. But we need to think of the problems as challenges that have to be met and overcome.
 

Lady Penelope

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I’ve just had an argument with my mum after expressing concerns about my relatives in Canberra. She told me I should stop worrying about everything and they would be fine because they are ‘smart people’. She also thinks this year’s weather is just an anomaly and everything in the future is going to be ‘fine’.

Full disclosure, I do suffer from depression and take medication but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to be upset and worried about the current situation in this country.

I’ve even contemplated moving to New Zealand because I’m not sure I want to live here anymore. Apparently I’m ‘crazy’ according to her.
I agree with @Steve777 . You are absolutely not crazy, @Kimski ! The conditions here are grim and it’s pretty overwhelming but we WILL get beyond this and it WILL rain. Focus on your trip to Japan, enjoy without guilt, and gather strength as a result. Sorry if slightly off topic, moderators, but these conditions have such an impact upon our mood and sense of hope.
 

Kimski

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I agree with @Steve777 . You are absolutely not crazy, @Kimski ! The conditions here are grim and it’s pretty overwhelming but we WILL get beyond this and it WILL rain. Focus on your trip to Japan, enjoy without guilt, and gather strength as a result. Sorry if slightly off topic, moderators, but these conditions have such an impact upon our mood and sense of hope.
Thanks. Sorry for the off topic.

Pretty sure a holiday is exactly what I need right now to be honest :)
 

ecowain

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How many times will the BOM keep forecasting 'the chance of a thunderstorm' for the Sydney area? They keep doing it, yet we don't see any.
I, for one, am really happy that they aren't happening.

Hot and gusty winds in the upper blue mtns today. Broken forecast max by 2+ degrees already today and still on the way up. Mt boyce currently 33.4

Significantly hotter than Penrith for once.

Edit, now +3.3 over the forecast.
Edit, 3pm 35.9 +4.9 over.
 
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Snow Blowey

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I’ve just had an argument with my mum after expressing concerns about my relatives in Canberra. She told me I should stop worrying about everything and they would be fine because they are ‘smart people’. She also thinks this year’s weather is just an anomaly and everything in the future is going to be ‘fine’.

Full disclosure, I do suffer from depression and take medication but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to be upset and worried about the current situation in this country.

I’ve even contemplated moving to New Zealand because I’m not sure I want to live here anymore. Apparently I’m ‘crazy’ according to her.


The air quality thing is not worth worried about unless you have a possible acute health condition. That is, a condition which may kill you if you go out in smokey air. For a healthy person free of respiratory conditions, you are only concerned about chronic health impacts. A relatively short period of very poor air quality is not going to have major health impacts. By all means avoid heavy excercise, but to go hide in a bunker is plain silliness. All the days of excellent air quality over your life time will mean that over a lifetime the air quality is pretty good.
 
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Telemark Phat

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The air quality thing is not worth worried about unless you have a possible acute health condition. That is, a condition which may kill you if you go out in smokey air. For a healthy person free of respiratory conditions, you are only concerned about chronic health impacts. A relatively short period of very poor air quality is not going to have major health impacts. By all means avoid heavy excercise, but to go hide in a bunker is plain silliness. All the days of excellent air quality over your life time will mean that over a lifetime the air quality is pretty good.
I can manage no more than about 45 min outside at the moment before my thought becomes painfully swollen and my eyes become heavily irritated in Berridale today. No respiratory disease just acute symptoms of smoke inhalation.
 

Majikthise

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I, for one, am really happy that they aren't happening.

Hot and gusty winds in the upper blue mtns today. Broken forecast max by 2+ degrees already today and still on the way up. Mt boyce currently 33.4

Significantly hotter than Penrith for once.

Edit, now +3.3 over the forecast.
Edit, 3pm 35.9 +4.9 over.
The models really struggle with our region, some real funky stuff must go on locally
 

ecowain

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The models really struggle with our region, some real funky stuff must go on locally
I think we are high enough that we poke up into a higher level. Often worth a peek at 850mb temperatures and winds to see what is happening just above us (about 890mb), rather than lower level, esp coastal air masses.
 
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rocketboy

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KOSCIUSKO NATIONAL PARK EVACUATION NOTICE

* An evacuation order is applied to all of Kosciuszko National Park and resorts and all other places located within Kosciuszko National Park commencing Friday January 3, 2020 at 10:00am eastern daylight savings time. All people located in Kosciuszko National Park must exit Kosciuszko National Park boundaries before the deadline of 10:00am this Friday. This is an essential measure to protect life
* People outside of Kosciuszko National Park need to monitor advice from the NSW RFS and other fire and emergency service agencies to remain informed as to whether other areas outside of Kosciuszko National Park need to evacuate
* Kosciuszko National Park is closed for entry. Permanent residents and essential staff may enter but must have evacuated by the deadline of 10:00am Friday January 3, 2020
 

Majikthise

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I think we are high enough that we poke up into a higher level. Often worth a peek at 850mb temperatures and winds to see what is happening just above us (about 890mb), rather than lower level, esp coastal air masses.
yep that's what I tend to do..I will be curious if the NW forecasted doesn't show up again... the last three instances have seen it swing WNW at worst and tending W.
 
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