Storm NSW/ACT/SE Qld - Showers and Storms January 15 - 21

Discussion in 'Systems & Events' started by Steve777, Jan 14, 2020.

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  1. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    Starting tomorrow January 15, a trough develops over inland Australia, extending from the NT across SW Qld and Western NSW into Victoria. It moves Eastwards, later extending into the Southern Tasman. It is quickly followed by a second trough.

    These toroughs draw in mosture at first from the tropics (ex TC-Claudia?) and then from the Coral and Tasman Seas, generating widespread rainfall across Eastern Qld, NSW and into Victoria. Much of this looks likely to be in the form of thunderstorms.

    Here is the 8-day rainfall outlook for January 14-20 from the BOM:



    So basically falls of 20+ mm over the Eastern half of NSW, NE Victoria (where it's really needed) and Eastern Qld. Widespread falls of 50mm+ in NE and East Central NSW and SE Qld. Normally nothing to write home about but we'll take it.

    The end date is uncertain, the pattern may last longer but at this stage we look to have a break in the pattern early next week (21st-22nd).
     
  2. Wavey

    Wavey One of Us

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    I reckon in some localised areas the falls could be a lot better than predicted, especially because the storms will probably favour certain areas over and over again such as the ranges.

    Here we have the thunderstorm icon in the forecast 5 days in a row starting from Thursday. We don't see that often here, that's for sure.
     
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  3. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler One of Us

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    Bloody unusual to see such persistent summer rain here!

    [​IMG]

    Such relentless cloud and precipitation is a feature of winter, not summer.
     
  4. DaveM

    DaveM One of Us

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    Hoping, hoping, hoping. This will make or break confidence out west of the divide. Quietly hopeful but also a little worried at same time.

    Elton John is playing here in Bx next Wednesday, forecast is sunny but somehow I feel it will suddenly deluge on the outdoor concert :nerd_ubb:
     
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  5. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    Thunderstorms are currently active in parts of the Riverina and Far West of NSW. There have been some good falls: 12 mm at Bourke; 15 mm at Wilcannia; and 36 mm at Delta, about 50 km West of Bourke.

    These seem to be isolated, however, with other falls being a couple of millimetres or less.

    =====

    Here it's smoky skies and a red sunrise, although there's no smoke at ground level.
     
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  6. Rainbow Spirit

    Rainbow Spirit Hard Yards

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    Some interesting storms in Port Phillip Bay, just where you don't want rain...
     
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  7. AshestoAshes

    AshestoAshes Addicted

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    This is going to be huge for the darling river, will be great to see the inflows from the rain event.
     
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  8. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Canberra radar looking promising atm. Hopefuly a good drop for our threatened Alpine Huts.
     
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  9. kylep

    kylep Cage rattler Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some 'strong' weather hitting Melbourne. Alert for our SW

     
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sunday 20th looking solid for instability/Severe TS on latest model runs.
     
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  11. Kazza47

    Kazza47 One of Us

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    We have some solid rain in Kingaroy; better than showers- actual rain.
    No thunder or lightning, gutters on the roads overflowing and all at decent hour (as in we all made it home from work before it started. Rather civilised.
     
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  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  13. Kazza47

    Kazza47 One of Us

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    Happy to report; still pouring , makes it hard to hear the TV but .. meh nothing on anyway lol.
    Airport gauge reading is just 1mm on the other side of town but here, must be a few mm by now
     
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  14. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    My friend said it was raining in berridale. Mum is complaining no rain in Jindy town.
     
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  15. connells

    connells Addicted

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    Big Bash at Manuka - rain stopping play.
     
  16. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wouldn't say huge. There's lots of ground wetting to be done before there is creek bed wetting and farm dam filling. Then there may be some inflow. Huge events spawn from the Darling Downs and upper catchment in northern NSW. Major storages are dry so there'll be no input from the upper catchments.
     
  17. DaveM

    DaveM One of Us

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    Correct SB it needs to be much more to get any decent flow going.

    Around here the Turon is relatively unhindered via hitting the Macquarie then Burrendong. The Fish and Campbell’s are dammed, that only leaves side streams to get the Macquarie back up and flowing,

    You should get rain before me, hope it’s enough to ease the pain for the regions.
     
  18. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    The next week is only 60-100mm, enough to wet the top 50cm of soil, it’ll barely make it into creeks. It’d only take a couple of weeks of heat to dry out again. Need upwards of 400mm (at a guess) before the ground is saturated and we get proper catchment topping up.
     
  19. Rainbow Spirit

    Rainbow Spirit Hard Yards

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    A decent storm cell is approaching from the NW, it has come over Katoomba with falls near 50mm.
     
  20. Wavey

    Wavey One of Us

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    Hearing thunder this morning and its raining reasonably heavy. Was not expecting anything until this arvo, but I have not been following the weather that closely admittedly.
     
  21. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    The storms are now in Western Sydney, moving South-Eastwards. Penrith has picked up 15 mm in under an hour. 36 mm at Faulconbridge.
     
  22. BrightSide

    BrightSide First Runs

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    A thunderstorm just passed over the Sutherland Shire. Not a lot of rain with it, at this stage.
     
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  23. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    The storms are now moving across Western and Southern Sydney and the Illawarra. There have been a few falls around 5 mm and some heavier ones.

    There's no rain here. Winds are Westerly with a faint smell of smoke. I've heard a couple of rumbles.
     
  24. kylep

    kylep Cage rattler Ski Pass: Gold

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    Rain across the harbour is setting in. Slightly sparse but big drops. Bit of lightning about, happened to be looking in exactly the right spot as a CG hit about 500m away
     
  25. Winterwolf

    Winterwolf Early Days

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    7mm a good start in Bowral. Nice entree for the main course tonight.
     
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  26. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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  27. DaveM

    DaveM One of Us

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    A big noisy storm here just before 4 am heaps of thunder and plenty of huge heavy drops. They made a racket hitting the cars.

    The airport said bugger all for the time but I reckon we had at least 5mm or more, my gutters were overflowing etc. I really need to find a decent place to install my rain gauge!!

    A second set came in (more quietly) around 6 or so and has been gentler rain and nice. Hopefully more to come.

    Such a lovely thing to have storms and rain :D
     
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  28. AshestoAshes

    AshestoAshes Addicted

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    Did this system set off-early, because I'm not too sure if we can reach 30 degrees which is the forecast at my place.
     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    10mm for Lucas Heights.

    Gobal models didn't put that much on the ground until tonight.
    AXS-C however has it pretty- much bang on:

     
  30. kylep

    kylep Cage rattler Ski Pass: Gold

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    Rainfall to 9am (as at 0838hrs)
     
  31. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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  32. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    Getting some deep rumbles of thunder here in Carindale on the southside of Brisbane now with lots of big dark heavy looking clouds around. Something I haven't seen for awhile. Above radar image via Weatherzone.
     
  33. ManlyMan

    ManlyMan First Runs

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    Not a drop in Manly. Cloudy but no rain.
     
  34. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thunder in the nations capital.
     
  35. connells

    connells Addicted

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    So either clear up or drop some stormy action.

    This smoky, overcast misery is driving me nuts ffs. :mad:
     
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  36. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler One of Us

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    A whopping 0.0 mm here today. :headbang:

    Give me F, I, Z, Z, E, R...what does that spell?
     
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  37. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    The radar looks juicy to our south. Hopefully this propagates north this afternoon.
     
  38. Rainbow Spirit

    Rainbow Spirit Hard Yards

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    Not much action for us atm, and only 6.5mm in the gauge so far, I think I'll leave it to see how much we get overall for the event.
     
  39. Rainbow Spirit

    Rainbow Spirit Hard Yards

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    A nice little blob hanging around west of Wollongong, might be good for the Cataract and Cordeaux dams.
     
  40. sillybanter

    sillybanter Early Days

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    Suspense is killing me! Not one drop in South Toowoomba over the last 3 days. 3mm for the year so far. Get on with it!
     
  41. Rainbow Spirit

    Rainbow Spirit Hard Yards

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    Running my mouse through the weather radar sites, it looks like Moree has had 49mm so far today, and next best that I came up with was Nowra AP with 27mm, I heard on the radio today that someone NW of Bathurst had 64mm in their gauge, so as expected a real hit and miss affair atm.
     
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  42. AshestoAshes

    AshestoAshes Addicted

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    STW warning extended for Sydney, but guess who's in the firing line for the Severe Cell, me :D. Hailstones sacked from the warning telling us how warm the air is.
     
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  43. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    A detailed Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been issued for the cell over Wollongong, moving NNE: heavy rainfall and damaging winds.

    EDIT: after that low-intensity thunderstorm early this morning, it’s been a bit of a nothing day here, another dull overcast day which refuses to rain. It’s brightened up and warmed in the last hour or so, that might help storm chances.

    EDIT2 - rainfall forecasts for next 5 days:
    Sydney: 30 - 85 mm
    Penrith: 25 - 70 mm
     
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  44. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lots of rumbling happening in Canberra, windy and some awesome clouds. Bring it!
     
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  45. AshestoAshes

    AshestoAshes Addicted

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    Hopefully we see some red on the rainfall chart by 9am tomorrow, best storm activity to come.
     
  46. kylep

    kylep Cage rattler Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM loading up the warnings this arvo. General warning covering most of the state, detailed for the southern Sydney cell and also a slippery road warning for the eastern suburbs? :p
     
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  47. Rainbow Spirit

    Rainbow Spirit Hard Yards

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    AtA, it is looking like that storm will split and miss both of us, no rumbles just yet, and I tend to start hearing them at 9km distance
     
  48. ManlyMan

    ManlyMan First Runs

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    I can just picture the warning for Sydney's Northern Beaches. Warning: Same old. Same old.
     
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  49. Rainbow Spirit

    Rainbow Spirit Hard Yards

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    We all tend to think that we have no hope of a decent storm, then out of no where we get smashed...
     
  50. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    Funny that the BOM thinks that people in a small area on the Central Coast (centred on about Doyalson) need not worry about Severe Thunderstorms. Obviously that’s what’s popped out of a computer. You would think that a human would have intervened to fill in such a tiny gap.

    EDIT: those storms on the Sydney Metro Area’s Southern outskirts are creeping ever so slowly North.
     
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