GFS showing some low level capping tomorrow PM, a result of the moderate Cross-Onshore flow. If they break that cap and get going they'll be banging like Beirut. Plenty there to work with.
If BOM doesn't put the words 'chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe' in their PM Bulletin, I'll eat my hat.
PWATs in the inch realm, and good Total Totals. Drying layer at 18k, has hail potential written all over it.
Yeah, well BoM 'aint taking the hint. I'll inspect EC & ASX-C closer tonight before I eat anything. I must be overhyping it.
Going to sound predictable but just about a perfect day. More comfortable than yesterday, the sea breeze is divine and sunny. OH almost reached the three zero (29.8). Im no expert here - looks like a southerly change/trough will pass Sydney late tomorrow which will stall around the area. However it won't be like those times when we are stuck on the "wrong side of the tracks" of a trough with cloud and cool southerlies. The E/NE winds are forecasted to return on Friday before a cold front arrives later on Friday pushing the trough north and bringing a little cooler and dry weather with SW winds, similar to mid to late winter weather patterns.
As @Donzah pointed to there's a broad spread of convergent winds and eddies. A pseudo Summer Nor-Easter, The Southerly and some warm dry air out the back of the GDR (ECMWF): AXS-C is suggesting supportive steep TTs and lapse rates: As I say, plenty there to play with.
The problem with Sydney Summers - not enough days like today. Throw in a few pop-up thunderstorms a couple of times a week and we’ll get it right. Get rid of all the dull overcast days that yield a millimetre or two if that. Including today, we've had five consecutive days with 12+ hours of sunshine. After all the crap weather we’ve had to put up with over the last few weeks, we’ve earned it. Tomorrow’s and Friday’s Sydney forecast mention the “possibility” of a thunderstorm in the afternoon or evening. Weatherzone’s outlook says thunderstorms are “likely” tomorrow afternoon for Sydney and much of the coast and tablelands. We’ll see how it goes.
I agree with you. I rate it by how Pool "swimmable" the weather is. Its been a few years since we had a run of consistent days like this .
Rest easy mate. Forget the Bom. Graham Creed mentioned severe this afternoon with possible large hail in his afternoon forecast today on ABC 24.
It's just about to. The Sun's breaking through here. It looks fairly clear for at least the next few hours so there should be plenty of solar heating to boost anything that develops this afternoon.
That cloud had me worried earlier but a quick check of the satellite images and a sacrificial goat ensured no back building or standing wave cloud nonsense. So we are at full sun now and ready to go. There's a certain smell I perceive when the dew points get into the low twenties like now. Not sure what it is from - vegetation or just the atmosphere. I was watering my pot plants just now (yes, they were drying out ) and the breeze was wafting the smell in. It evokes memories of summer on the beach as a kid. Similar to the smell of sun block.
All those low-lev, fertile DP's are coastal (within ~10kms of the coast andin the Basin), so anything worth looking at this arvo will be chiefly coastal/basin-orientated, IMO. DP's out west, BM's and West, aren't looking (nor due to look) fantastic.
I see that OH has passed 30°. Let’s see if it can crash through the 31° barrier for the first time since late November. With the site move, “Sydney” will be recording more 30+ days regardless of whether it is actually getting warmer. In these conditions (sunny and seabreezy), I think that it is likely that 30 is the new 28.
Instability out to the West viewed from Waverton - these were called Folkestone Pillars back in the UK!
The site moves at OH annoy me. Pre 1915 had winters 2c colder than today, and now the last move has summers about 1c warmer than the previous site. Makes traking a changing climate quite difficult
Whilst I agree with you for the most part, climate should only be considered when you have a solid aggregate of historical data, from many local sites. Looking only at one site will never give you climatic continuity. But yep, it’s like your favourite restaurant changing suppliers, never tastes as good after...
Surf at lunch - car said 27.0C on the beach (Mona Vale), 36.0C on approach back home but the breeze has just arrived and probably knocked it back a bit
Yes, I understand your point about it being best to measure climate across multiple sites. I think my main annoyance is you can't even get a like for like comparison with the same site because of all of the changes. BOM still publishes the all year average for OH from 1858, but given the changes in site positioning, the data in 1858 cannot be directly compared to data in 2021. Normally for other sites, they list the old site as closed and the new one as open, but I think for whatever reason this is not done here. Apart from rainfall data, the 1858- ~1915 (first site move with colder winters) was not relevant to site averages from 1915-2019, same as the 1915-2019 data is not relevant to 2020 onwards due to the warmer summers.
Couple of isolated poppers 'jumping the fence' around Lithgow, Mount Vic. Small, but pinging nonetheless.
Sydney’s West has hotted up since the last time I looked. Penrith and Richmond have reached 39.2° and 38.5° respectively, the hottest since November 29. Bankstown’s reached 37.0°. As others have reported, the sky is starting to look interesting: A Southerly change is near Point Perpendicular and Nowra. EDIT. Maybe the change will trigger something when it nears. There’s lightning just off Wollongong.
I've just heard thunder in Pymble from those specs approaching from the west, likely to track just to my north. Surprised by Penrith nearly reaching 40.
I'm surprised by this given how humid it feels here. Is it because they're forming out west where DPs are much lower (eg 10C at Camden)? Contrast with a DP of 22.1C in the City
There's a low-level heat cap in there so it's taking a bit to get things going vertically. DPs aren't amazing until you hit 850-800mb so they're a bit lazy too. Good boyancy beyond that though.
Detailed Severe Thunderstorm warning issued (large hail stones and damaging winds) for the cell near (EDIT) Pymble and the one North of Lithgow. EDIT: there’s been distant rumbling thunder here for half an hour or so but the Sun’s still out and the action seems to be to my North.
