Day to Day NSW / ACT weather

Steve777

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Showers have been passing over Sydney in the last couple of hours but the yield has been pitifully small, with no more than a millimetre anywhere in the Sydney Basin. There’s a bit more on the way, including storm cells. We might get something as a cold front passes around midnight. There are a lot of sparks West of the Divide? Will the storm cells survive the crossing? Probably not but we’ll see.
 

Steve777

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More rain bands have crossed Eastern NSW, including Sydney, with some decent totals building up:
  • Around 3 - 5 mm across Sydney, with more to come
  • About 10 mm in the Bathurst area
  • About 10-20 mm in the Goulburn area.
Winds have turned Westerly, so that’s probably the cold front marked on the synoptic chart. Lightning is approaching the borders of the Sydney Basin. Can it penetrate the Storm Shield?

EDIT: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued for the Central Tablelands and parts of adjacent districts (damaging winds).
EDIT2: Went out onto the balcony. The stars are out to the East. Saw some distant sheet lightning from cells out to sea. The storms are doing their trick of jumping over the Basin.
 

Sideny

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Jul 16, 2019
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More rain bands have crossed Eastern NSW, including Sydney, with some decent totals building up:
  • Around 3 - 5 mm across Sydney, with more to come
  • About 10 mm in the Bathurst area
  • About 10-20 mm in the Goulburn area.
Winds have turned Westerly, so that’s probably the cold front marked on the synoptic chart. Lightning is approaching the borders of the Sydney Basin. Can it penetrate the Storm Shield?
Penetrating so far here... Not really intresting though just moderate rain. The northern flank looks quite juicy.
 

Joshua Randazzo

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More rain bands have crossed Eastern NSW, including Sydney, with some decent totals building up:
  • Around 3 - 5 mm across Sydney, with more to come
  • About 10 mm in the Bathurst area
  • About 10-20 mm in the Goulburn area.
Winds have turned Westerly, so that’s probably the cold front marked on the synoptic chart. Lightning is approaching the borders of the Sydney Basin. Can it penetrate the Storm Shield?

EDIT: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued for the Central Tablelands and parts of adjacent districts (damaging winds).
EDIT2: Went out onto the balcony. The stars are out to the East. Saw some distant sheet lightning from cells out to sea. The storms are doing their trick of jumping over the Basin.
yeah storms that form on the west of the GDR 95% of the time die/weaken in the basin. storms need to form in eastern blue mountains and the right atmospheric conditions to make it to coast like one event that i will not get into....
 
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Steve777

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A beautiful blue sky morning in Sydney, a little chilly but then it is Winter.

Sydney had a bit more rain overnight from the final rain band. Totals across Sydney since 9:00 range from about 5 mm in the North to 10 mm in the SW. If there was any thunder and lightning I slept through it.

Canberra did very well, with 29 mm.
 

Yowie9644

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Woken at around 5:30am this morning by the vertical blinds flapping about, making a racket and letting in the light. A gust of 50kph was recorded at AP airport at a similar time. Tried to go back to sleep but to no avail - the blinds were going to rattle until I got out of bed, and once I was up, the cat insisted it was breakfast time. :sleep:
 
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Donza

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Saturday mornin for Sydney.. Brrrr.
 

Homer

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It didn’t make the forecast max of 10C here today, topped out at 5.9 but the windchill didn’t get above -3 all day.
It actually felt colder than last Thursday.
The wind, the wind.

When I looked at Mt Boyce's obs sometime this afternoon, the current temp was 5.6 and the app temp was minus 5.
It's only 60 km's away but such a difference to here!!
 

warrie

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When I looked at Mt Boyce's obs sometime this afternoon, the current temp was 5.6 and the app temp was minus 5.
It's only 60 km's away but such a difference to here!!
It's thousand metres higher so 10 degrees cooler when it's a westerly as a rule of thumb. Now Mt B apparent is -6. Ouch
 
Yeh, I know the rule of thumb. Just such a different climate up there compared to the metro, yet it is so close.
As you say, the 1000 metres makes all the difference.
It's really just the accelerated lapse rate over the lee side doing most of the work—elevation is overrated. For example, in a true westerly flow, Eucumbene often maxes out in the order of 6° C cooler than Cooma (sometimes even more), yet there's only a 350–400 m difference between them.

On the wind side however, it takes a lot more elevation to see a notable temp difference—provided the locations in reference are all above the LCL (lifted condensation level). In a westerly flow with standard LCL (approx. 500 m for most systems), there's only a 2° C difference between here and Cabramurra.
 

Donza

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Warnings out.
Severe Weather Warning for DAMAGING WINDS and DAMAGING SURF, for people in parts of Mid North Coast, Hunter, Metropolitan, Illawarra and South Coast Districts.
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DAMAGING WINDS AND SURF ACROSS THE COAST FOR SATURDAY
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Billy Bob

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It's really just the accelerated lapse rate over the lee side doing most of the work—elevation is overrated. For example, in a true westerly flow, Eucumbene often maxes out in the order of 6° C cooler than Cooma (sometimes even more), yet there's only a 350–400 m difference between them.

On the wind side however, it takes a lot more elevation to see a notable temp difference—provided the locations in reference are all above the LCL (lifted condensation level). In a westerly flow with standard LCL (approx. 500 m for most systems), there's only a 2° C difference between here and Cabramurra.
We need more weather stations out that way, particularly Lake Eucumbene. Eucy (Anglers Reach etc.) is still on the lee side of the Snowies but yes does receive enough precip from classic cold fronts. As you say the difference between there and Cooma can be stark.

Tumbarumba is actually lower than Bungendore but it would receive settling snow at least once a year. There is no AWS out there but I guess you can extrapolate somewhat from Khancoban. Frustrating that Canberra isn't on the other side of the hills, even if it would mean a hotter summer. I need to do a snow chase out that way. I have periodically checked the model output (Windy.com) for Laurel Hill whenever snow down to 1000 is likely; the forecasts on there have been underwhelming and worse than those for the OP so I haven't bothered. I will test your claim that Laurel Hill/Maragle is only 2C warmer than Cabra in a W'ly snowfall. Cabra temp should be 0C or just below to see flakeage at Laurel (1000 m).

I have read that the sheltered position from the (harsher) winter weather in the early 20th Century was a factor in Canberra's placement. I reckon if Canberra was to be founded today, Bombala or Tumbarumba may have been chosen! Or better yet, Cabramurra (the name is somewhat close...). Bombala was a serious candidate for the national capital as was Delegate; not sure about Tumby.
 
We need more weather stations out that way, particularly Lake Eucumbene. Eucy (Anglers Reach etc.) is still on the lee side of the Snowies but yes does receive enough precip from classic cold fronts. As you say the difference between there and Cooma can be stark.

Tumbarumba is actually lower than Bungendore but it would receive settling snow at least once a year. There is no AWS out there but I guess you can extrapolate somewhat from Khancoban. Frustrating that Canberra isn't on the other side of the hills, even if it would mean a hotter summer. I need to do a snow chase out that way. I have periodically checked the model output (Windy.com) for Laurel Hill whenever snow down to 1000 is likely; the forecasts on there have been underwhelming and worse than those for the OP so I haven't bothered. I will test your claim that Laurel Hill/Maragle is only 2C warmer than Cabra in a W'ly snowfall. Cabra temp should be 0C or just below to see flakeage at Laurel (1000 m).
I reckon that Anglers Reach/Providence Portal area @ 1,200 m would be the best spot for an AWS on Eucy. That NW corner of the lake is defo the most exposed to classic frontal systems, mainly due to the more gentle altitudinal gradient from the west. Areas on the SE shores like Buckenderra tend to be a lot more sheltered.

Khancoban's a lot more exposed than Tumba though—Tumba's in a sort of "bowl", akin to Bathurst. Very evident from Tumba's comparitively low precip and warm maxima relative to altitude, and likewise higher diurnal ranges. As for the Laurel Hill/Maragle forecasts…don't even bother with em. Often hilariously wrong due to a severe lack of station coverage in the area; pretty much based on Tumba.
 

Donza

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Showers moving up the coast quite quickly.
Real winter arvo out there looking towards Kiama.
 
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Billy Bob

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Tumba has an annual average temp identical to Bungendore/Goulburn (6-20; 1991-2020 averages) so I guess you're right. Tumba is about a degree warmer in summer than Goulburn and a degree cooler in winter, which is what you'd expect. Goulburn is actually slightly cooler for maxima overall. Tumba is much wetter than Goulburn, though, with a verdant median of 896 mm compared to Goulburn's pitiful 522 mm (1991-2020). Goulburn (and Cooma) would be close to semi-arid climates if not for the relatively cool temperatures. Most sizeable towns on the tablelands are in fact in sunholes/'mini deserts' which goes hand in hand with a valley location. Even Oberon seems to be sunnier than, say, Black Springs. The upper Blue Mountains towns are the notable exception.

Bungendore is potentially even sunnier than Canberra because of the lack of long-lasting fog and westerly cloud. There are no stats to back this up, though. Winter fog dissipates here a lot earlier than Canberra and we get much more wind as well, which helps break up inversions.

The rain is mostly missing here but I'd rather it stop altogether; I'm trying to get some landscaping done here and with the 20+ mm the other night, it's still sodden around here. There is a hint of significant rainfall for the end of next week, too. Last year we made a mockery of that 522 mm median and this year might be the same. June has a habit of featuring lows on the back end of fronts. I have not studied this in detail, but cold upper air interacting with the still warm SSTs in the Tasman may have something to do with it. July usually sees a return to relatively dry conditions, at least in this part of the world.
 

Steve777

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That cloud band moving up from the South has reached here in the last half hour or so. The rain’s a way off, now in an arc from about Kiama to Canberra. Until now it’s been a mostly fine day, sunny in the morning, partly cloudy in the afternoon. It reached about 19° in most suburbs. It’s cold further South, just 10.7° at Jervis Bay Airfield (max there was 14.9°).
 

Billy Bob

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Nov 23, 2020
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For snow starved Canberrans, here are two PWS's worth saving:

Steeple Flat (Brown Mountain/Nimmitabel): https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/ISTEEP5

Anglers Reach: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IANGLE37

Precip down there this afternoon of course, but much too warm for snow (4C at Steeple and 5C at Anglers; Cooma AP is stuck around 6C). Windy.com forecast rain and bottoming out at 4C for Anglers Reach, so it was fairly on the money. There are a few other stations around Eucy but all should read much the same in snowy conditions.

I much prefer snow in non-Alpine settings. Snow falling over the pine forests of the Oberon Plateau/Laurel Hill, over Lake Eucumbene/Jindabyne and especially in towns like Nimmitabel and Oberon, is much more authentic than in a ski resort.
 

Steve777

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Starry at dawn at Bankstown and a little sun till 9 am, now it's cold windy and bleak with a few drops of rain. Radar shows more cloud on the way.
It was similar here - early sunshine but the cloud had closed in by 9:00. It’s now solid overcast and 13-15° across most of Sydney.

It was actually Sydney’s warmest night for a few weeks (minimum 11.0°, so not that warm). Although the radar has been showing showers passing over Sydney’s East for a couple of hours, nothing seems to have registered. There’s been no rain recorded at OH since 11:00 PM.
 
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Donza

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It was similar here - early sunshine but the cloud had closed in by 9:00. It’s now solid overcast and 13-15° across most of Sydney.

It was actually Sydney’s warmest night for a few weeks (minimum 11.0°, so not that warm). Although the radar has been showing showers passing over Sydney’s East for a couple of hours, nothing seems to have registered. There’s been no rain recorded at OH since 11:00 PM.
Just the fraction of a swing to the south and the showers hit the coast in Wollongong.
Bleak as to the south sou east.
Winds gusty at 30 to 35 knots.
 

Steve777

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It’s cold, overcast and windy but there’s only been a small amount of rain, about 5-6 mm on the beach since 9:00 grading to little or nothing West of about Prospect. At the Airport it’s 13° with wind gusts up to 80 kph and an ‘apparent temperature‘ of just 3°. There has been a gust of 106 kph at Wattamolla.

Unusual synoptic chart for this part of the world. Watch out for the purple thing just off the coast!

6D2C67FC-A7C8-462A-8902-55E3F311D18F.png
 
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Homer

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It’s cold, overcast and windy but there’s only been a small amount of rain, about 5-6 mm on the beach since 9:00 grading to little or nothing West of about Prospect. At the Airport it’s 13° with wind gusts up to 80 kph and an ‘apparent temperature‘ of just 3°. There has been a gust of 106 kph at Wattamolla.

Unusual synoptic chart for this part of the world. Watch out for the purple thing just off the coast!

6D2C67FC-A7C8-462A-8902-55E3F311D18F.png

I can vouch for that apparent temp. Standing in the light rain (light being the operative word, but big drops at times) at my sons soccer game this afternoon was freezing. Hands in pockets and my fingertips were still numb!
I felt the Sydney radar was over reading today. Totals were quite low compared to the radar echoes.

Also, can you clarify what you expect with the purple thing?
 
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Steve777

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…can you clarify what you expect with the purple thing?
It was a good day to stay indoors. It’s still windy outside with the temperature stuck around 13-14° where it’s been all day. The radar was certainly over-reading. Sydney has had just 2.6 mm in 12 hours.

Re the purple thing, I was just being jocular. It is an occluded front. The cold front marked on the map caught up with a warm front and pushed the warm air between the two aloft, so it marks a transition between one lot of cold air and another, with the air behind the cold front probably cooler and drier than that ahead of the warm front. On the ground I think it would be like a cold front, with rain and squalls, maybe storms. WZ ‘layers’ lightning near Forster this afternoon.
 

Steve777

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The Sun was threatening to come out earlier but now we're back to stygian gloom. There are showers marching Northwards, mostly offshore but impacting the coastal fringe. Overnight, there was falls over 50 mm in the Forster area inland to the Barrington Tops. In the Sydney area, falls were mainly coastal with 10 mm or more East from the CBD and little or none West of about Blacktown and Liverpool.
 

Eddy

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The Sun was threatening to come out earlier but now we're back to stygian gloom. There are showers marching Northwards, mostly offshore but impacting the coastal fringe. Overnight, there was falls over 50 mm in the Forster area inland to the Barrington Tops. In the Sydney area, falls were mainly coastal with 10 mm or more East from the CBD and little or none West of about Blacktown and Liverpool.

Wallis lake recorded 127mm in the 24 hours to 9am, Nelson Bay 78mm, Bungwahl 99mm.
Here at home I recorded 114.1mm.
 

Steve777

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Wallis lake recorded 127mm in the 24 hours to 9am, Nelson Bay 78mm, Bungwahl 99mm.
Here at home I recorded 114.1mm.
That would be thread-worthy if it were more widespread.

Here in Sydney, the City has recorded 21 mm for this event (since 9:00 Friday, including 8 mm since 9:00), Bankstown 6 mm, Penrith 2 mm. Stations near Pittwater (Northern Beaches) have recorded over 25 mm since 9:00 today.

It was another bleak, wintry day. A few sunny breaks in the early afternoon allowed the temperature to briefly sneak above 15°. At least the crazy wind has abated.
 
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Eddy

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That would be thread-worthy if it were more widespread.

Here in Sydney, the City has recorded 21 mm for this event (since 9:00 Friday, including 8 mm since 9:00), Bankstown 6 mm, Penrith 2 mm. Stations near Pittwater (Northern Beaches) have recorded over 25 mm since 9:00 today.

It was another bleak, wintry day. A few sunny breaks in the early afternoon allowed the temperature to briefly sneak above 15°. At least the crazy wind has abated.

Absolutely. I ended up recording a total of 136.8mm for this isolated event, may even get another 5mm overnight into to the morning.
I certainly didn't see or expected that much rain for the weekend. Half the year has gone and I have already reached my annual average rainfall.
 

Steve777

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Sydney’s “event” total is now 23 mm, Bankstown 6 mm, Penrith 2 mm. Meanwhile, the weather station at what must be Sydney’s soggiest golf club (Mona Vale) has received just under 50 mm.

There was a bright waxing gibbous Moon out earlier this evening after another cool and mostly cloudy day with a couple of light showers. After a third sub-16° maximum, things should improve for the remainder of the week.

Here’s the view mid-afternoon on the Winter Solstice 2021.

FC768-CCD-EE38-45-B1-ABBE-EBE3-AF17-C3-B7.jpg
 

Donza

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Sydney’s “event” total is now 23 mm, Bankstown 6 mm, Penrith 2 mm. Meanwhile, the weather station at what must be Sydney’s soggiest golf club (Mona Vale) has received just under 50 mm.

There was a bright waxing gibbous Moon out earlier this evening after another cool and mostly cloudy day with a couple of light showers. After a third sub-16° maximum, things should improve for the remainder of the week.

Here’s the view mid-afternoon on the Winter Solstice 2021.

FC768-CCD-EE38-45-B1-ABBE-EBE3-AF17-C3-B7.jpg

It was a miserable and cold day in wollongong with part cloud and a biting breeze.

This morning hasn't dawned much better. Grey, flat light and light winds.
Its been a decent amount of time since we've had so many cold cloudy days in june.

Looking forward. Tomorrow seems to be another so so day until the rain sweeps across from the NW on thursday.
 

AshestoAshes

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Definitely the most interesting July,August set ups we've seen in some years. A likely IOD set up could incredibly powerful if SAM starts playing ball if negative, big for west of GDR but maybe a decent drop for coasties. With recent cloudbands stretching across AUS the heat engines have effectively been killed, but cloudiness probably points to warmer night times. Interestingly BOM is going for above average Max temps as well suggesting that the coldest maxs are past us, although one thing for sure July/August winds await us and an eventual warm up.
 
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menthurae

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May 14, 2020
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Saw this cloud structure on my way home this afternoon, near Narrabeen on the Northern Beaches of Sydney. Kind of looked like mammatus? Just didn't seem very well formed compared to when I've seen it (once) before...

20210623_164750.jpg
 

DerekHV

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Dec 14, 2019
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Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Running just below average for June, with 6 days left, and some more cold weather on the way after on the weekend - which is normal seeing as we are heading into the coldest time of the year.
I should point out there are no long term averages for Maitland, as the Maitland Airport station only came into being in July 2016, after previously recording at Maitland Information Centre.
So I am going on Tocal long term averages.
Tomorrow hitting 20C, will see how long it takes to get back up to that again, assuming we get to the forecast.
 
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