Day to Day NSW / ACT weather

Jac0b

Hard Yards
Jul 5, 2019
36
71
68
Western Sydney
The winds are strong but westerly winds. Got me thinking about last Summer so I pulled 10 min obs for Sydney Airport and created a wind rose plot. That is, Dec 20 - Feb 21.
Summer never had a chance really.
Calm conditions are included in the numbers but not shown.
Numbers going from middle to E are the percentages of all observations for the 3 months.
mascot_wind_sum21.png
Really interesting wind rose! That high proportion of S/SSE/SE wind pattern has LaNina written all over it.

The wind rose for Oct 2019 to Dec 2019 would be quite the opposite - all westerly component winds.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Gleno71

Billy Bob

Addicted
Nov 23, 2020
142
352
113
Bungendore

The contrast over a short distance here was quite something. Nothing much settled at Old Adaminaby but a nice settling at Anglers Reach. Around 1180-1200 m there and wrings out enough moisture from the west. Light wind blown flurries were evident as far east as Middlingbank Road (Rhine Falls).

I would be interested to hear how much Adaminaby Angler had at Maragle. Maybe he/she is completely snowed in.
 
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass

Billy Bob

Addicted
Nov 23, 2020
142
352
113
Bungendore
Yes I’m glad I didn’t look at the cam this morning (Old Adaminaby). I based my chase off the EC Windy output, which consistently forecast healthy snow showers for AR. Would be nice to have a camera at AR as well. Nice and quiet with next to nobody around. Even the Monaro Conga Line wasn’t too bad, thanks to the lockdown (plenty of Yogie plates, though). The lack of snow (and tailgaters in said snow) for most of the drive is an advantage over the OP.

The Snowies aren’t much of a range by global standards but they have an outsized effect on the climate in the SE.
 

Homer

One of Us
Ski Pass
Aug 3, 2005
1,597
4,018
363
Castle Hill - Sydney
Dargan BMs. Basically been snowing on and off all day, sometimes heavily and settling. A howling wind all day. Still the same re snow and wind.
Hasn’t got above 1c.
Bitter.

It certainly looked very wintery over the Blue Mountains, from a high point in NW Sydney.

1626511108126.png


1626511192733.png


1626511269836.png
 

Billy Bob

Addicted
Nov 23, 2020
142
352
113
Bungendore
Is that Porter Lookout, Homeboy? The view from there is so good that FM radio from Mount Canobolas can easily be heard. Canberra FM stations are also quite regular from Dural.

Snow in the pine forest is my favourite. May have done OK chasing Laurel Hill today. But I was glad to see the microclimate of Anglers Reach in action.

The OP looks like it will get plenty more tonight.
 

Homer

One of Us
Ski Pass
Aug 3, 2005
1,597
4,018
363
Castle Hill - Sydney
Is that Porter Lookout, Homeboy? The view from there is so good that FM radio from Mount Canobolas can easily be heard. Canberra FM stations are also quite regular from Dural.

Snow in the pine forest is my favourite. May have done OK chasing Laurel Hill today. But I was glad to see the microclimate of Anglers Reach in action.

The OP looks like it will get plenty more tonight.

Not sure if that's what it's called.
It's just the space just before Round Corner on Old Northern Rd, heading up from Glenhaven and just before the shops.
I'm not sure I should even be parking there but it's a great viewing spot.

I posted a few fog photos from there a few weeks ago.
According to Google Earth, it's about 200 mtrs asl.
 

Adaminaby Angler

One of Us
Ski Pass
Snow in the pine forest is my favourite. May have done OK chasing Laurel Hill today. But I was glad to see the microclimate of Anglers Reach in action.
I reckon the state forests at Wee Jasper woulda been your best bet with this system (gets 1,000+ m up to 1,215 m at Tumorrama Mountain). Very close to you too.

Massive amounts of moisture against the Brindabella's western slopes for much of today, confirmed by this station on WU (just 736 m AMSL)—scored a staggering 63.5 (!) mm today https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IWEEJA1
 
  • Like
Reactions: Steve777

Billy Bob

Addicted
Nov 23, 2020
142
352
113
Bungendore
Yes, but how high does the road go? And it’s a pretty dicey road west of Wee Jasper, particularly in heavy snow.

There is a high accessible point east of Tumut (Bondo State Forest) on the Brindabella Road. Around 1200 m and you can walk a bit higher. May have been the go today.

The ACT authorities quickly close the Brindabella Road to 2WD on the Canberra side whenever there’s decent snow, so I don’t even bother with that.
 

Adaminaby Angler

One of Us
Ski Pass
Yes, but how high does the road go? And it’s a pretty dicey road west of Wee Jasper, particularly in heavy snow.

There is a high accessible point east of Tumut (Bondo State Forest) on the Brindabella Road. Around 1200 m and you can walk a bit higher. May have been the go today.

The ACT authorities quickly close the Brindabella Road to 2WD on the Canberra side whenever there’s decent snow, so I don’t even bother with that.
Wee Jasper Rd. maxes at just short of 900 m near the Cootamundra-Gundagai Shire/Snowy Valleys Council border (directly south of Burrinjuck), which from experience is already high enough for heavy snowfalls in a westerly. I've worked (and still do) in a seasonal forestry crew up there many times.

But yeah I was thinking more Bondo way—it's literally Black Springs on steroids (i.e., farther poleward). A very underrated and little-known region…part of its charm IMO.
 

Billy Bob

Addicted
Nov 23, 2020
142
352
113
Bungendore
But yeah I was thinking more Bondo way—it's literally Black Springs on steroids

Sounds like my type of place. Will definitely check it out when and if I get another opportunity this season. I do think you underestimate the OP, though. It is somewhat lionised by virtue of its proximity to Sydney, but Shooters is magic on its day.

Surprised at how warm it was overnight; a tropical 7C before sunrise here which would have made work of the low snow at Corin Forest etc. The EC ensembles did pick this overnight warmth a few days ago, though. Unusual to have such a mild day immediately after a significant cold front; I guess it’s the pineapple ahead of the next frontal surge due Mon/Tues.
 

Billy Bob

Addicted
Nov 23, 2020
142
352
113
Bungendore
I would say the developing -IOD is the major cause of the cloud cover, at least at higher levels. There's also a ST of moisture in the soil at the moment, leading to very thick fogs in this part of the tablelands whenever the temp drops. Sometimes it takes until noon to burn off. Today, fog and resulting low cloud gave way to the upper level stuff with even a few light showers. EC predicted a 'zero sunshine' day today and it was right on the money; it's always a brave forecast in a sunny climate like Bungendore.

The CTs as you say have been particularly cloudy. Bathurst was cooler than Goulburn in June and July could go the same way. Usually Goulburn is a little cooler (but not by much; the main difference is in the warmer months).

Makes a change from 2017-2019 when Australia was mostly cloudless (except for smoke and dust...)
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jac0b and Gleno71

tastim

Hard Yards
May 10, 2018
31
63
68
Whats the chances of this weekends event producing some decent snow fall for the CT and OP area. The perfect storm or still way and see.
 

Steve777

One of Us
Ski Pass
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
1,260
3,584
363
Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
Whats the chances of this weekends event producing some decent snow fall for the CT and OP area. The perfect storm or still way and see.
Here is ”peak snow” for the Central Tablelands according to Meteye - 7:00 tomorrow morning:

2CED87E3-13D1-4653-B00D-8940B6DCBE9A.png

The picture looks good but the words aren’t that encouraging:

Central Tablelands area: Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers in the early morning. Snow possible above 800 metres. The chance of a thunderstorm in the west. Winds southwesterly 25 to 35 km/h decreasing to 15 to 25 km/h in the morning then becoming west to southwesterly and light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between minus 1 and 4 above zero with daytime temperatures reaching between 7 and 13.”

Sunday morning looks similar but slightly more extensive (Katoomba gets a pixel). Forecast for Orange July 25:

“Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 25 to 30 km/h tending westerly 25 to 35 km/h during the morning.”
 

Billy Bob

Addicted
Nov 23, 2020
142
352
113
Bungendore
The current system ridges out pretty quickly with a southerly flow developing tomorrow, at least down here. Windy has light snow for Nimmitabel early tomorrow but it clears out even there by late morning. Around Canberra will be fairly warm tomorrow in the Foehn southerlies (Cooma and Bungendore reverse roles in a southerly, with Bungendore getting the warm day and colder night). The higher parts of the OP will likely get a dusting overnight. Winds may remain SW'ly for longer out there so it's possible the snow could stick around into the morning. I don't think there'll be a lot of it, though, as the BOM forecast seems to indicate.

I am not getting that excited for the weekend yet; the next couple of days should provide a clearer picture. These days I don't even bother planning a chase until a couple of days out.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Steve777

Donza

Dogs body...
Ski Pass
Platinum
Apr 21, 2004
127,964
85,066
3,563
woonona
Woke to a sunny and still day.

That didn't last.

Blustery and inky sky with high cloud.
Cold as well.

Quite brutal.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Homer

warrie

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jun 15, 2008
958
865
263
Sydney
Real App
Bankstown20/05:50pm14.39.24.0504.7NW202611141005.80.03.8
03:19am
16.4
11:40am
NNW35
04:28pm
19
04:28pm
Bellambi20/05:50pm15.410.85.6524.7NW19221012-0.010.2
02:44am
17.5
11:53am
W57
04:19am
31


A number of lee clouds west of Blue Mtns of late. Dawooduck is not the only one on the leeward side of a range. LOL. B1 actually windier than B2- just
 

Steve777

One of Us
Ski Pass
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
1,260
3,584
363
Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
The latest forecast has a minimum of 4C for Obs Hill on Thursday morning. When was the last time it got that low? I remember a four-point-something in the last few years but probably nothing in the fours for at least 20 years other than that. Could be wrong though.

A “courageous” forecast. The OH site doesn‘t seem to be allowed to go below 5° but it happens very occasionally. The last time was 16/7/2018 when it dropped to 4.6° at the old site and 4.0° at the new one. The new site is slightly cooler for minima at all times of the year, so it might happen more often.

Before 2018, the last time it dropped beflow 5° at OH was 30/6/2010 when 4.3°, the time before that July 2007 when 3.7°.

Another thing July this year looks like having in common with July 2018 - a warm finish. The last 5 days of the month looks like having a run of 20+ maxima before a cold change to start August.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Trail Blazer

Untele-whippet

beard stroker
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2006
19,366
41,498
813
60
Blue Mtns, 1100M.
A bitterly windy day, with intermittent horizontal showers. 4C max with winds gusting up to 70 k.
Had to climb over the absent Sydney neighbours fence to secure their new, empty 15000 litre water tank that took off and ended up 50 metres from its home embedded in our fence.
4 police arrived answering a tip off about an intruder climbing over a fence!!!!
Ho hum.
2C outside now and howling.
Fire purring.
Dargan BMs
 

Jac0b

Hard Yards
Jul 5, 2019
36
71
68
Western Sydney
A “courageous” forecast. The OH site doesn‘t seem to be allowed to go below 5° but it happens very occasionally. The last time was 16/7/2018 when it dropped to 4.6° at the old site and 4.0° at the new one. The new site is slightly cooler for minima at all times of the year, so it might happen more often.

Before 2018, the last time it dropped beflow 5° at OH was 30/6/2010 when 4.3°, the time before that July 2007 when 3.7°.

Another thing July this year looks like having in common with July 2018 - a warm finish. The last 5 days of the month looks like having a run of 20+ maxima before a cold change to start August.
That run of low 20's will feel warm! After all the mid-teens we've had so far plus for the forecast rest of the week.

After a quick look, July 2018 (and 2019) actually had almost half the days in the low 20's at Parramatta, but the freezing mornings offset them a bit.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Trail Blazer

AshestoAshes

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 3, 2019
443
1,047
263
21
Voyager Point NSW
That run of low 20's will feel warm! After all the mid-teens we've had so far plus for the forecast rest of the week.

After a quick look, July 2018 (and 2019) actually had almost half the days in the low 20's at Parramatta, but the freezing mornings offset them a bit.
I was just going to post about upcoming warmth. It appears July 31st will be the first warm day with long-fetch north-westerlies dragging some warm air over. But after that is a front before a high moves over, SAM looks like it going negative over that period. Hopefully we can get it moving over Queensland for some North Westerlies again, would hate for it to get stuck over NSW will leave us with some very frost nights with not much to show for it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jac0b and whether

Snow Blowey

Old n' Crusty
Ski Pass
Jan 7, 2004
26,732
25,785
1,063
Dubbo NSW
NSW is primed for a major flood event. Have been traversing the western slopes last couple of weeks and the ground is sodden and running water after small rain events. All major storages filling, most about 70%. Murrumbidgee storages are all but full.

Some more good water heading toward the darling out of Macintyre.
 

warrie

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jun 15, 2008
958
865
263
Sydney
NSW is primed for a major flood event. Have been traversing the western slopes last couple of weeks and the ground is sodden and running water after small rain events. All major storages filling, most about 70%. Murrumbidgee storages are all but full.

Some more good water heading toward the darling out of Macintyre.
A repeat of 2016 with IOD, La Nina etc. Trouble with Oz that 2 years later the heavens shut, so will 24/25 match 19/20 with dead fish in Darling and fires?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jac0b

Jac0b

Hard Yards
Jul 5, 2019
36
71
68
Western Sydney
From what I understand LaNina can also be two ways - if it's a strong LaNina you get cool wet summers in East Aus but if it's a weak LaNina you get prolonged heatwaves and dry weather, 2016-17 was a very weak LaNina (recognized by NOAA but not BOM), and there were some hefty heatwaves in that summer. The big dry started with that summer and finished in 2020.

2008-2009 was same story with weak LaNina (recognized by NOAA but not BOM) and big heatwaves in Jan and Feb 2009, although this was followed by wet years 2010-2012.

So 24/25 may go either way.
 

warrie

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jun 15, 2008
958
865
263
Sydney
realApp
Bankstown21/11:50am14.89.0-0.1366.3SW202811151015.00.08.5
04:21am
15.1
11:42am
SSW43
11:18am
23
11:18am
Bellambi21/11:50am15.16.54.8504.8SSW39432123-0.011.3
07:02am
15.3
11:33am
SSW63
10:35am
34
10:35am


B2 apparent nearly 9*C below actual. Chilly. At B1 the stratocumulus is edging inland with 4/8 of sky cover in E half an hour ago but now back to 2 octas and sunny.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Steve777
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass

Log in

or Log in using
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass