Day to Day NSW / ACT weather

Billy Bob

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We seem to have gone back to a 'warm east, cool west' pattern this week. That has been the default setting for Australian weather since about 2016, though it's been about 50/50 this year. True, deep polar fetches extending to about 55S have still been lacking this winter except over SW WA (like in the current front). The isobars extend south of the BOM chart! Setups like that are very rare at eastern Australian longitudes. Perth had its wettest July in decades, though mean temps were still well above average due to the very warm nights with that rain.

I reckon this weekend just gone will be the peak of the ski season. I think I am allowed to say this here...I'll leave the 'foaming' and wishful thinking to the Alpine/Snow section. The melt will be on big time on Wednesday, especially on the lower slopes. I would expect temps well into the positives even at Thredbo Top with an 18C max (at least) for Bungendore. I see TTS is finally back online!

Time to extend Bluff Knoll to 2000 m and flatten out its plateau a wee bit...
 

Steve777

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Was anyone near Sydney Airport on Sunday? Apparently there were cloudless skies if the records are to be believed - http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/IDCJDW2125.latest.shtml.

Must have been quite a sight to behold whilst the rest of Sydney was under an overcast pall of cloud.
On the other hand the BOM seems to have fixed the dodgy reading for January 18, which was a rare cloudless or near cloudless day for that time of the year. It now shows 12.9 hours.
 
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Billy Bob

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Cooling effect of Botany Bay in a NW'ly as recorded at Kurnell:


Not as significant as I thought to be honest. A max to date of 22.5C at this station, compared with an even 24C at most Sydney sites.

Some warm temps on the South Coast too, Bega and Merimbula both a rounded 26. The airmass seems to be a bit warmer down here than up in Sydney.
 

Wavey

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Cooling effect of Botany Bay in a NW'ly as recorded at Kurnell:


Not as significant as I thought to be honest. A max to date of 22.5C at this station, compared with an even 24C at most Sydney sites.

Some warm temps on the South Coast too, Bega and Merimbula both a rounded 26. The airmass seems to be a bit warmer down here than up in Sydney.
Yeah around 25-26 in this area. I'm sure that extra heat on the far south coast would be helped by the Foehn effect from the Snowies, especially when there was sustained 100+ km/h winds above 2000m!

PS: Hillston radar is showing that front coming through quite nicely :)
 

Billy Bob

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Bear in mind the last negative IOD event (2016) didn’t produce above average rainfall on the coastal strip, though it was around average from memory. West of the GDR it’s a very different story to the dustbowl of 2017-2019.

Horribly windy in the Alps and indeed here right now. All piss and wind and no cold air. Yes- when the westerlies penetrate down to the far South Coast, the highest temps can be down there. There was a seabreeze around Narooma to Tathra in the morning which got shafted in the middle of the day. This area is very seabreeze prone due to the double shielding effect of the Snowies and coastal ranges (but becomes an enhanced or double Foehn in the windiest regimes, as you point out).
 

AshestoAshes

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Getting very dry up here. There has been a lack of east coast lows this winter. It's starting to feel like 2017 - 2019 again.
I think right now we just can't afford an ECL, i've been noting to myself we've been so fortunate to have a great run of weather in this tough time. Any ECL in these parts does mean that we are likely seeing flooding along the hawkesbury-nepean. Although this is my opinion of my region other people definitely have different needs, i've got a full tank (thankfully) will be using it next month for the annual feed and weed and to have a green start to spring.
 
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Snow Blowey

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Well we are getting some light showers this morning in Dubbo and it appears the upper macquarie has had another 5-15mm. Last couple of those falls have seen the creeks run quite well, so i'd say another 5% into Burrendong. Murrumbidgee is one to watch. They are realeasing water before each rainfall event to manage flooding.
 
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Billy Bob

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The storms last night packed a bit more punch than I was expecting. The lightning fizzled out well before Bungendore but I had a brief period of torrential rain and very strong wind. Some power outages in Canberra with that line, too.

Spring is definitely here...aside from a few more strong cold fronts to come. I noticed Perisher had over 40 mm with those storms, all falling as liquid snow by the looks of it. Ouch.
 

warrie

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Was thinking the same.
Seems that everywhere is primed for flooding at the slightest hint of another rain event. Been reading on this forum that dams are full and soil moisture is high.
Both coastal and inland.
Big dry along most of NSW coast. One ECL will just bring things back to average so no harm. Blue and purple only on W of divide hence Blowering and Burrinjuck have spilled. Wyangala 94%, Burrendong 86% and Keepit 95%.

1628726006688.png
 
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Wavey

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Big dry along most of NSW coast. One ECL will just bring things back to average so no harm. Blue and purple only on W of divide hence Blowering and Burrinjuck have spilled. Wyangala 94%, Burrendong 86% and Keepit 95%.

1628726006688.png
Yes July was quite dry but much of the year before that has been average or above average in eastern NSW, except for April which was extremely dry across NSW. Prolonged dry spells like this are certainly not unusual for late winter. From my experience growing up here, it's pretty normal for it to be mostly sunny, with few rain days at this time of the year. I think it's the random ECL events that push the averages way up for July to September.

Well today was an incredibly nice day. I think it was just about perfect for a winter's day. We reached 21C, very light winds and low humidity. Even a light sea breeze in the afternoon. Tomorrow should be very similar.
 

Donza

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Yes July was quite dry but much of the year before that has been average or above average in eastern NSW, except for April which was extremely dry across NSW. Prolonged dry spells like this are certainly not unusual for late winter.

Well today was an incredibly nice day. I think it was just about perfect for a winter's day. We reached 21C, very light winds and low humidity. Even a light sea breeze in the afternoon. Tomorrow should be very similar.
Besides a little southerly next week.... looks like next 7 days are similar.
 
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Jac0b

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Yes July was quite dry but much of the year before that has been average or above average in eastern NSW, except for April which was extremely dry across NSW. Prolonged dry spells like this are certainly not unusual for late winter. From my experience growing up here, it's pretty normal for it to be mostly sunny, with few rain days at this time of the year. I think it's the random ECL events that push the averages way up for July to September.
Yep I have always remembered late winter being really sunny and super dry air, with only the odd rain event in late July/August every few years. Western Sydney would be no different to the coastal suburbs in Wollongong or Central Coast since winds are all westerly.

You're definitely correct about the averages - one or two really wet months distorts the average, like Aug 1986. For Parramatta, the months from July - September average about 50mm per month, however the medians are only about 30mm which seems more correct.
 
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Jac0b

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I made a graph of the August Rainfall since 1887 at Prospect Reservoir. It shows the percentage of Augusts that had <10mm, 10-20mm, 20-30mm, etc. of rainfall since 1887.

182WZwF.png


We can see that there are only a few very wet Augusts (>100mm), which pull up the average and give the interpretation that it's a wetter month than it usually is, that's why the median is much lower than the average:

Roughly 1/4 of Augusts have less than 10mm of rainfall.
Roughly 1/2 of Augusts have less than 30mm of rainfall.
And roughly 70% of Augusts have less than 50mm of rainfall.
 

Wavey

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Thanks for that Jacob. I'm not too surprised by those results, but it's very interesting to actually see the data and over such a long time period.

For this area at least, I fully agree that the median is the best way to measure rainfall because it's quite often a "feast or famine" situation here with not too much middle ground.
 

Steve777

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Today’s weather picture - Artarmon Oval - looking East.

C3B66215-D229-4E51-98A2-21EA749973F6.png

The grass is very dry. Someone turned off the big tap in the sky four weeks ago. We’ve just had a couple of light, passing showers since. August is normally sunny and dry here, the time of year when maritime influence is at its minimum.

P.S. That’s the old TCN 9 tower in the background, a Sydney landmark since the 1950s, in the process of being dismantled.
 

Billy Bob

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The fog usually stays longer in Tuggers/Molonglo Valley than Gungahlin and Bungendore. There was both a fog and a light frost here this morning with a min of -3.5. The moisture in the fog tends to melt the frost a bit.

I was unaware of this until yesterday:


Lots of weather stations in the wine growing regions. One at Murrumbateman which lacks an AWS as well as at 'Brindabella'. Heaps around the Hunter Valley and Orange as well, and also one at Maragle for the Tumbarumba vineyards. There isn't one for the vineyards atop the Lake George escarpment near Bungendore, though, which are the highest and coolest in the region.

Canberra has both cool climate wines (at higher elevations) and milder climate wines (out towards Yass):


This is an interesting read. Presumably due to the propensity for warm season frosts, the Cooma region is too cold for viticulture. Bungendore's valley is also susceptible to late season frost, which is probably why the vineyards are atop the escarpment.
 

warrie

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B1 wind opposite to B2 as a gentle zephyr. And all that hazard reduction smoke is heading out to sea as far as I can see from a B1 perspective. Last thing 5 million Sydneysiders need is PM 2.5's mixed in with COVID.
Bankstown14/01:50pm19.516.14.0367.3W1113671026.00.03.5
06:07am
19.8
01:18pm
NNE22
12:54pm
12
12:54pm
Bellambi14/01:50pm18.517.211.3633.9E9955-0.09.6
06:11am
18.8
01:45pm
W15
12:00am
8
 
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Billy Bob

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The spring burns aren't so much an issue down this way; we generally only have to put up with one smoke season a year (April/May). August/September usually sees plenty of smoke in the Sydney Basin as it's normally the driest time of year. Usually too much wind in August/September for extensive HR on the tablelands, though the current conditions are quite suitable.

I have an air purifier now so am better prepared for any future 'Airpocalypse' events. It's a Dyson that doubles as a heater, but I'm only using it during smoke events. There will be plenty if the current NH summer is anything to go by.

You can see on this streaming webcam how that seabreeze is trapping the smoke:


None at ground level at least in the CBD.
 
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Wavey

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The fog usually stays longer in Tuggers/Molonglo Valley than Gungahlin and Bungendore. There was both a fog and a light frost here this morning with a min of -3.5. The moisture in the fog tends to melt the frost a bit.

I was unaware of this until yesterday:


Lots of weather stations in the wine growing regions. One at Murrumbateman which lacks an AWS as well as at 'Brindabella'. Heaps around the Hunter Valley and Orange as well, and also one at Maragle for the Tumbarumba vineyards. There isn't one for the vineyards atop the Lake George escarpment near Bungendore, though, which are the highest and coolest in the region.

Canberra has both cool climate wines (at higher elevations) and milder climate wines (out towards Yass):


This is an interesting read. Presumably due to the propensity for warm season frosts, the Cooma region is too cold for viticulture. Bungendore's valley is also susceptible to late season frost, which is probably why the vineyards are atop the escarpment.
Speaking of Cooma... -7.4°C (Ap) this morning which is not extremely cold for there but a top of 13.8°C after that is quite noteworthy. I think yesterday morning was similar too.

No bushfire smoke around here today but the air was very slightly hazy due to that sea breeze. Only a very light one though.
 

Wavey

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still no real rain in sight :(
Lucky the Sydney water dams are still at quite high levels. For example Cordeaux is at 93.5%. So I wouldn't worry too much; there's a good chance the rain will pick up again by October anyway. As mentioned before, this is typically the driest time of the year and it's not unusual to have long dry spells occurring. No unseasonably warm windy weather in the forecast for the next couple of weeks either so negligible chance of bushfires too.

Personally I'm enjoying the nice sunny weather while it lasts, because if this summer is like most in this part of the world, there will be plenty of overcast and rainy days.
 

warrie

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Fine and bluebird sunny at B1 . Lets hope it stays that way and it may if the westerly can push out the seabreeze and send the HR smoke to sea. Unlike yesterday when it blew back in. Thanks for .....


Bankstown15/09:40am14.411.25.0534.4WNW1113671026.00.05.2
05:20am
14.5
09:39am
W17
09:29am
9
09:29am
Bellambi15/09:40am18.414.32.3347.3WNW131578-0.012.9
04:40am
18.4
09:40am
NW30
02:53am
16
 

Billy Bob

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Last two mornings have been -5 here. Cold and dry high desert air with high diurnal ranges: a feature of the climate here usually, but definitely lacking so far this winter. I would expect the negative IOD to bring about some further rain and storm events as the continent heats up a bit more. Mother Nature could just be taking a breather; I am preparing for at least one flood event this spring.

Cooma as mentioned is a genuine high semi arid clime, but nowhere in the league of places like Flagstaff or Albuquerque. Flagstaff has a good climate: sunny and dry year round and not too hot in summer thanks to it's 2000 m + elevation. Heat domes there are usually in the low- mid 30s with cool nights. Winters are sunny and cold, punctuated by significant snow events. Bluebird days after heavy snowfall are common.
 

Wavey

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Flagstaff has a good climate: sunny and dry year round and not too hot in summer thanks to it's 2000 m + elevation. Heat domes there are usually in the low- mid 30s with cool nights. Winters are sunny and cold, punctuated by significant snow events. Bluebird days after heavy snowfall are common.
Yeah I would like that climate, a lot of the days in winter are not super cold for its elevation anyway. The UV rays in summer would be insane though, a lot worse than at sea level.

Yes I'm sure that wind will start howling here at some point through the night too.
 
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warrie

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Very nice conditions at B1 on day 53. No smoke - maybe no burns and yesterday the wind blew it to NZ
Bankstown16/12:00pm20.516.31.9298.5WNW13207111018.40.04.9
06:29am
20.6
11:56am
WNW32
11:44am
17
11:44am
Bellambi16/12:00pm22.016.32.7289.1W22391221-0.014.4
12:04am
22.1
11:59am
WNW48
09:44am
26
 
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Donza

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Very nice conditions at B1 on day 53. No smoke - maybe no burns and yesterday the wind blew it to NZ
Bankstown16/12:00pm20.516.31.9298.5WNW13207111018.40.04.9
06:29am
20.6
11:56am
WNW32
11:44am
17
11:44am
Bellambi16/12:00pm22.016.32.7289.1W22391221-0.014.4
12:04am
22.1
11:59am
WNW48
09:44am
26
I'm going to wander down to B2 a little bit later.
Will take a pic.
 
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Billy Bob

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B2 hasn’t got out of its warm pyjamas: still seems to be over reading by 1-2C.

Copping the top of the front here but it’s all sun and wind and no substance. No precip even in the ski fields and Cabramurra perhaps only drizzle or snizzle. Typical of a front that affects only Tasmanian latitudes. Mount Boyce max warmer than here so far, further indicating that the front is squished to the SE.
 
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Wavey

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B2 hasn’t got out of its warm pyjamas: still seems to be over reading by 1-2C.

Copping the top of the front here but it’s all sun and wind and no substance. No precip even in the ski fields and Cabramurra perhaps only drizzle or snizzle. Typical of a front that affects only Tasmanian latitudes. Mount Boyce max warmer than here so far, further indicating that the front is squished to the SE.
Car temp concurs. Went to do some shopping at Fairy Meadow just earlier (about 30mins ago). Car said 22 when I left there and then dropped down to 21 as I was approaching home where it's hilly and a bit higher. It lines up pretty nicely with Albion Park butbelow Bellambi's rounded 23.

I've noted the car temps a few times while near Albion Park AWS and it is surprisingly accurate- either right on or a degree higher than the station.
 
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warrie

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I'm going to wander down to B2 a little bit later.
Will take a pic.

Very nice conditions at B1 on day 53. No smoke - maybe no burns and yesterday the wind blew it to NZ
Bankstown16/12:00pm20.516.31.9298.5WNW13207111018.40.04.9
06:29am
20.6
11:56am
WNW32
11:44am
17
11:44am
Bellambi16/12:00pm22.016.32.7289.1W22391221-0.014.4
12:04am
22.1
11:59am
WNW48
09:44am
26
Same time today. Only 3 degrees cooler at B1. Deep blue sky - a good day to ride out pathogens
Bankstown17/12:00pm17.413.91.0337.2W913571021.00.08.2
06:55am
17.8
11:58am
WSW32
01:39am
17
01:39am
Bellambi17/12:00pm17.412.23.3396.5SSE20241113-0.012.3
06:44am
18.5
11:09am
WSW48
12:39am
26
12:39am
 
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Billy Bob

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Yes the constant westerlies have pushed up temps at Obs Hill and more generally on the coast. I have a saying that westerlies are much like blue jeans at this time of year: the default setting.

Mean 24 hour temp around 6C here which is average for August at the moment thanks to some cool nights. Days have been mild without any exceptionally warm days (above decile 9). There is a chance of a more wintry front next week but this could easily die in the ass. So I expect the mean temp has a chance of reaching 7C by the end of the month which would be +1C on recent averages. September's mean temp rises to 9C and October's around 12.5C (matching the annual average temp).

For the trivia buffs: the overseas climate that most resembles Bungendore in terms of annual temperatures is located in southern France (can't remember where). Some parts of inland Spain at a moderate elevation would come close as well and are probably a better match in terms of precipitation patterns, winter temps and sunshine hours.

I like the Bankstown v Bellambi comparison. Bankstown is usually one of the warmer sites in Sydney in a westerly wind. Given that Bellambi has been much warmer lately, it's almost certain there's something going on there. May be an instrument error as hinted at by someone previously (can't recall who). So the two most seabreeze prone sites in Greater Sydney are now over-reading.
 

Steve777

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I don’t have numbers to back it up but I think that both the old and new OH sites are warm in a Southerly or SE’er, especially if it’s sunny. It seems to sheltered from that quarter. Winds today at OH were light SE’ers from about 1:00 PM. On the other hand Sydney Airport is fully exposed to the SE with only the Kurnell peninsula between it and cold Southern seas.

OH also tends to be warm in light conditions. That might have something to do with lack of inversions and a head-start from warmer minima.

===

Winter seems to have left the building, although mornings are still a bit chilly. It left around July 26 - since then it’s been mostly day after day of clear, sunny weather, with just a couple of light showers in the past month, mostly maxing above 20°.

The pattern reminds me of August 1995, Sydney’s warmest every August and its only rainless month, although the warmth occurred in the second half of the month after an average first half. September 1995 was cold and wet.
 
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Donza

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Yes the constant westerlies have pushed up temps at Obs Hill and more generally on the coast. I have a saying that westerlies are much like blue jeans at this time of year: the default setting.

Mean 24 hour temp around 6C here which is average for August at the moment thanks to some cool nights. Days have been mild without any exceptionally warm days (above decile 9). There is a chance of a more wintry front next week but this could easily die in the ass. So I expect the mean temp has a chance of reaching 7C by the end of the month which would be +1C on recent averages. September's mean temp rises to 9C and October's around 12.5C (matching the annual average temp).

For the trivia buffs: the overseas climate that most resembles Bungendore in terms of annual temperatures is located in southern France (can't remember where). Some parts of inland Spain at a moderate elevation would come close as well and are probably a better match in terms of precipitation patterns, winter temps and sunshine hours.

I like the Bankstown v Bellambi comparison. Bankstown is usually one of the warmer sites in Sydney in a westerly wind. Given that Bellambi has been much warmer lately, it's almost certain there's something going on there. May be an instrument error as hinted at by someone previously (can't recall who). So the two most seabreeze prone sites in Greater Sydney are now over-reading.
Bellambi isn't over reading.
In a strong offshore pattern its often the warmest place in Wollongong.
Oddly.
We've had more offshore winds than I can ever recall here in Wollongong since 2018 on..
 

ben0

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Has anyone seen an data on rainfall in Sydney over August? Feeling very dry again. Parks turning brown. Reminding of 2019
 
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Donza

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Yeah feeling dry on the south coast as well. Brief shower mid last week.
Yeah its baked mud around here.
Dry from the wind, however the sun doesn't have enough ooomph yet to really dry the vegetation
 

ben0

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Ohh yeah I feel that it has far too much ooomph in it on the northern beaches for this time of year. Vegetation getting very crispy. Have t been able to find much reporting on this though and or the outlook for the near term.
 

Adaminaby Angler

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The overseas climate most similar to Maragle appears to be Ceasars Head, SC (980 m @ 35° N—the exact same elevation and similar latitude to Hunters Hill, and exposed to the windward side of the Appalachians).

However CH has pitifully low snowfall relative to temps and precip, likely due to the frequency of warm fronts over cold fronts; most winter precip in the US tends to fall with above average temps, as opposed to below average.
 
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Steve777

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Regarding rainfall -

Bankstown has had 21 mm since the beginning of July (47 days), including just 3 mm in August so far. The average over that period would be about 71 mm and the median about 43 mm. So it has been dry, even for a dry time of year.

Nearer the coast OH has had 47 mm since the start of July against a 30-year average of about 121 mm and median of about 86 mm. Of note is the fact that the big tap in the sky has been mostly shut down since July 12, with just 14 mm in the 36 days since then.

The other thing is that it’s been sunny, with the Airport averaging 8.7 sunshine hours a day for August so far, 15 of the 17 days having a least 8 hours and eight of them 10 hours+.
 
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Billy Bob

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OH also tends to be warm in light conditions.

Any station with poor exposure in a built up area will over-read in light wind conditions. That's painfully obvious when looking at Wunderground PWS's in built up areas.

The patterns are similar to August 1995 (endless high pressure) but the temps aren't a patch on that year, so far. Goulburn was regularly clocking 20C days in that heatwave, with a peak of 23-24. The warmest so far this month has been 18, equal to the Decile 9 max for August (1991-2020).

I think something is up at Bellambi. It is true that it may receive a bit of compressional (downslope) warming from the escarpment in westerly winds, but the same is true of almost anywhere in the Illawarra, especially Albion Park. Albion Park AP is itself warm in a westerly.

The Carolinas are a good match for NSW in terms of annual average temp (Myrtle Beach is also the same as Sydney) and even rainfall, but the eastern US is generally much more continental in flavour with proper tropical summers- even inland- and the odd severe cold snap in winter. Southern Brazil is more like coastal NSW.
 

warrie

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Barium v Beryllium. - just to relieve the lockdown lethargy. Hey Donz, what happened to your Monday pic? Ba now has 3 octas of Cu slowly from the north. It may clear to be able to see 5 planets +moon at 6 pm.
Bankstown18/12:40pm17.816.75.1436.1CALM00001024.10.06.4
06:50am
18.5
12:23pm
NNE26
12:28pm
14
12:28pm
Bellambi18/12:40pm18.016.010.1604.2E111367-0.010.8
05:03am
18.1
12:40pm
E17
12:07pm
9
 
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