Day to Day NSW / ACT weather

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Here's that broad area of the lower cold pool, a left hook through the Western (windward) GDR.
The blue is indicative of Freeze Level at around 750m ASL (925mb)
1632014586050.png


Remembering the uppers (500mb) in the same region are SUB -30°C, that's some super cold air. With snow easily falling to ~500m in heavy showers - just a shame there's not much of that in it.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Bit off topic but I thought Lenticular clouds mainly formed over mountain ranges?

Saw one off the coast not long ago and thought it looked a little out of place..
The gradient off the Illawarra Escarp is often underestimated.
You'll find lee side troughing behind the escarpment with some punchy uppers.

It would be better to look at reanalysis, but here's Access C.
Going of Zehr on Satview it's probably sitting about 500mb. Temp and Humidity is bang on with the satellite signature:

500mb AXSC RH & Temp
1632038538681.png


Himawari8
1632038466055.png
 

Homer

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Bit off topic but I thought Lenticular clouds mainly formed over mountain ranges?

Saw one off the coast not long ago and thought it looked a little out of place..

Not off-topic at all. This is a NSW/ACT weather thread with ALL things weather related considered and discussed.
Thanks for asking the the question. The replies to your post have been informative, considered and educational.
 

Donza

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Its almost as they started as a regular lee cloud. Then popped up as they went offshore.
My lenticular knowledge ain't huge however the cloud base looked Altocumulus level.
 
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Snowmaker7

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Still a small chance of seeing a few straggly flakes here in the Southern Highlands tomorrow morning. Temps more than cold enough for snow down to ~700m: -29°C 500s, -3°C 850s, 1°C 925s. BOM even including snow above 800m, possible thunderstorms and possible hail for the Illawarra tomorrow. The real issue with this is the moisture, however more often than not with these really cold systems passing clouds usually drop the odd flake.
 

warrie

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Breezy, warm and sunny, not too much smoke at B1. Enjoy it while it lasts.
Bankstown20/11:30am25.520.82.92311.0NW17309161010.90.07.3
02:36am
25.5
11:30am
NNW33
11:00am
18
11:00am
Bellambi20/11:30am23.418.33.9289.5NNW20331118-0.0-23.7
11:30am
NNW33
11:27am
18
 
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Donza

Dogs body...
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Apr 21, 2004
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Breezy, warm and sunny, not too much smoke at B1. Enjoy it while it lasts.
Bankstown20/11:30am25.520.82.92311.0NW17309161010.90.07.3
02:36am
25.5
11:30am
NNW33
11:00am
18
11:00am
Bellambi20/11:30am23.418.33.9289.5NNW20331118-0.0-23.7
11:30am
NNW33
11:27am
18
About to punch through 26 at B2.

Warm westerly is warm.
Expected this on Saturday.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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IMO there's enough evidence in AXS-C to support possible snowfall to 700m on the CTs tomorrow AM.
Possible above 600m for ST's.
Really at the mercy of what moisture is left, if any.
And there you have it for the CT's on the PM Bulletin:

Tuesday 21 September​

Cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers in the morning and afternoon. Snow possible above 700 metres. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon. Possible small hail in the morning and afternoon. Winds southwesterly 25 to 35 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between minus 1 and 5 above zero with daytime temperatures reaching between 9 and 14.
BoM going for 700m for ST's.
 

Snowmaker7

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Snow still sticking in the Illawarra forecast this afternoon:

Tuesday 21 September​

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers in the morning and afternoon. Snow possible above 800 metres. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon. Gusty winds and possible small hail in the morning and afternoon. Winds west to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h tending south to southwesterly 25 to 40 km/h during the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 2 and 8 with daytime temperatures reaching between 12 and 17

Moisture will definitely be the issue, however with the winds switching straight from the south in the early morning I'm still hopeful of a few wandering showers.

1632121398124.png


Interestingly, Goulburn already down to 4.7°C under showers
 

Steve777

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The change is just arriving here. It apparently passed through Sydney Airport between 6:00 PM (when 23.5°) and 6:17 PM (when 20.9°). At 7:10 PM it was 14.7° and dropping. That’s a strong change, dropping the temperature by 9°. Bellambi had a similar drop when the change arrived a little after 5:00 PM. Bellambi had a wind gust of 76 km/h, the Airport 70.

——

It was a beautiful day here - a bit of smoke early but that dispersed.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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May 28, 2000
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BoM going for 17°C tomorrow. If it gets to 16°C I'll eat my hat.

Finding it difficult to believe 17°C is attainable with -31°C uppers at midday. Evening temps don't even come close.

Looking at AXS-C temps don't even breach 15°C for the Sydney City area.
 

Wavey

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Genuinely cold here this morning. It's cloudy and breezy with a temp of 12 degrees. Not bad for late September.
I definitely can't see it reaching the forecasted 18 here. As Pow said for Sydney, I think the temp will struggle. If the cloud cover lingers, I'm expecting 14 or 15 at best, maybe 16 if it's sunny enough in the afternoon. Albion Park in downsloping SW winds can get surprisingly warm though. But we'll see what happens.
 

Val Desire

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Jul 12, 2018
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Lindfield NSW
BOM showing rainy icons most of today for Sydney but radar of NSW "all clear" curently. Where is this rain expected to come form? Currently cold and sunny, some clouds on Sydney NS - picnic possible!
 
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