Day to Day NSW / ACT weather

Adaminaby Angler

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October 2021 Summary

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A cool month of somewhat above-average rainfall. In fact, this was the first cool October since 2016; and three of the last four Octobers were strikingly warm, in the order of +2–3 °C by anomaly—a definite trend-breaker.

Anomalies @ Hunters Hill (1993–2020)

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• Mean Maximum: 14.8° C (–1.5° C)

• Mean Minimum: 6.0° C (–1.2° C)

• Precipitation: 99.2 mm (114.6%)

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Onboard

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Still has ensemble support. Forecasts derived from the eps can be of greater benefit than a deterministic forecast produced by the same model.


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Snowmaker7

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Keeping a close eye on the forecast for this weekend in terms of storm chances - especially Sunday.

In other news, the new WZ site will take some time getting used to. I'm not a fan of the radar, looks like it has been "smoothed out" to the extreme looking at the rain band in SA as a test subject. Much preferred the ability of being able to select a specific radar - you can no longer know the true intensity of the rain because you no longer know what radar you're looking at. A bit too much going on all the pages, they have very much unsimplified things imo and there's still quite a few bugs.
 

Snowmaker7

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Thoughts on the new weatherzone?

I like
I have to completely disagree, I think it's quite terrible actually. Radar is useless - no choice of picking what radar you want to look at. Very very artificial and smoothed. Looking at their twitter and fb, they're being absolutely hammered. Higgins Storm Chasing with over 1 million follows also made a post expressing their disappointment - not a good look!
 

Steve777

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Since the WZ changeover, I can only access basic stuff in spite of being a Pro member. I’ve reported it so hopefully fixed soon (signing off and back on again didn’t do it).

It does look like we’re in for a major and widespread rain event across much of Eastern Australia starting in about a week’s time. It’s been on the cards for a few days now. Some places will get storms, high winds and heavy rainfall. Exactly where won’t be clear for another few days.

===

Mild, windy and sunny here after morning cloud dispersed. That NE’ers been around for a couple of days and looks like sticking around.
 

Onboard

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Not the best graphic but you get the drift if you have been following lately. Boms model
is now also sniffing around off the nsw coast in roughly that time window -12/24hrs

UzK0va.png
 

Snowmaker7

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Not the best graphic but you get the drift if you have been following lately. Boms model
is now also sniffing around off the nsw coast in roughly that time window -12/24hrs

UzK0va.png

Pretty impressive looking on the charts. EC also sniffing around with something in 10 days time, still very far away though. This could be the first signs of the probable full La Nina pattern.

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Onboard

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Yeah myself i think we are already in a nina now.
Not expecting any persistent very hot weather to the southern states until around mid December when a mt should form over the arafura sea Hot weather over the southern states is always a precursor for the m/trough.
A bit off topic but yeah i'm hoping the tropics deliver with the rnd 2 nina.
 

davidg

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Keeping a close eye on the forecast for this weekend in terms of storm chances - especially Sunday.

In other news, the new WZ site will take some time getting used to. I'm not a fan of the radar, looks like it has been "smoothed out" to the extreme looking at the rain band in SA as a test subject. Much preferred the ability of being able to select a specific radar - you can no longer know the true intensity of the rain because you no longer know what radar you're looking at. A bit too much going on all the pages, they have very much unsimplified things imo and there's still quite a few bugs.
The radar page just flat out sucks this is what I'm looking at on my 24", 4k monitor.

1635923474371.png
 

Onboard

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UzVYSX.gif

EC is known for a low bias when it comes to moisture. Also worth noting The access G is better with moisture estimates than the much higher res access c.
 

Onboard

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EPS looking tasty as well potentially we are on in the next 10 days,I think we're tracking for an upper-low which sees a very strong inland low with ECL potential.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_aus_fh0-240.gif


Myself i see a forecast for a deep complex low that originates in the Tasman west of tassie.
Looks to me atm a low pressure vort cuts off from within the outta boundry of the complex low.

.
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eps_mslp_disks_ausnz_216.png


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Onboard

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Myself i see a forecast for a deep complex low that originates in the Tasman west of tassie.
Looks to me atm a low pressure vort cuts off from within the outta boundry of the complex low.

.
UzXdKN.png


eps_mslp_disks_ausnz_216.png


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Ukmet 00z has the bulk of the complex low in the Bight @ 9th
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.
 
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Donza

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Tasman lows are a 3 days out proposition.
I don't even bother with ensembles in those scenarios.
 

Onboard

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I'm with pretty much everyone else's opinions on the various interstate threads on ski.com.

The new WZ app, both desktop and mobile sites, are absolutely crappola.
Yeah i agree with you. Al tho other here liked it. The layers when i looked @ it went to
the same format as before nothing new there. Also noticed needed pro account just to look over the sat vapor. Myself i don't use their radar. If it aint broken don't fix it.
 
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Onboard

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GFS on the same page as myself.

Plenty of notice time for hazard managers with possible insidious weather along the coastline. Beach erosion and inundation in low lying coast areas maybe on the cards if it verifys 3 working days notice (24 hrs) is insufficient notice to plan for a possible event.
 
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Donza

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Weekend Looks like a inland trough and associated cold pool lays along the GDR.

While a moderate tasman low spins up off the South coast.
Fetch on the low doesn't favour much rainfall North of say Moruya.
Looks too south to me.
 

davidg

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WZ Radar seems to have improved its rendering this morning.
Rendering definitely better. Scaling is still absolutely stuffed though, on the 20" (1080p) monitor at work, its not really any better.

Theyve got the basics so fundamentally wrong i cant understand how they could get it so wrong. For instance, the time-slider is positioned on the actual radar map (that is already way too small) and covers up probably 1/8 of the map. Also when you zoom out it doesn't give you the composite radar, it only zooms out to the extent of the radar you have selected.

The location page for each AWS is a miriade of click throughs where the info used to just be displayed there on the page. No bookmarks anymore either.

They've really done a number on it.
 

Snowmaker7

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UzEcjP.gif


GFS on the same page as myself.

Plenty of notice time for hazard managers with possible insidious weather along the coastline. Beach erosion and inundation in low lying coast areas maybe on the cards if it verifys 3 working days notice (24 hrs) is insufficient notice to plan for a possible event.
Doesn't look quite that extreme in my opinion, even on GFS. The far south coast/more so the south eastern coast of Victoria will cop some weather. Winds are far too southerly, and really not that much rain forecast on GFS in my opinion.

Quite an impressive cold system though for early/mid Nov, snow possible down to 1000m in the snowies and snow possible on the CTs the way it stand right now
 

Snowmaker7

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Rendering definitely better. Scaling is still absolutely stuffed though, on the 20" (1080p) monitor at work, its not really any better.

Also when you zoom out it doesn't give you the composite radar, it only zooms out to the extent of the radar you have selected.

The location page for each AWS is a miriade of click throughs where the info used to just be displayed there on the page. No bookmarks anymore either. They've really done a number on it.
The radar is slightly better this morning, however I can't see how with this completely excessive smoothing it will be of absolutely any use in isolated storm/heavy rain/supercell scenarios, and the doppler doesn't even exist from what I can see.

Put it this way, we will not be seeing any more radar images on Weatherzone that look even remotely as detailed and amazing as this:
1634188391757.png


Took me ages to find the state wide observations list, and when I did find it, it is basically completely useless and doesn't even load.

I sent an email 2 days ago expressing my disappointment in the new website, and the radar in particular (as a paying member), and they basically said "sorry".
 
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Onboard

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Doesn't look quite that extreme in my opinion, even on GFS. The far south coast/more so the south eastern coast of Victoria will cop some weather. Winds are far too southerly, and really not that much rain forecast on GFS in my opinion.

Quite an impressive cold system though for early/mid Nov, snow possible down to 1000m in the snowies and snow possible on the CTs the way it stand right now

Pretty much was showing where the GFS thinks the low comes from.
And also saying 3 day rule is not enough when ens point to something. Never wait
until the minute.
 
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Donza

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The radar is slightly better this morning, however I can't see how with this completely excessive smoothing it will be of absolutely any use in isolated storm/heavy rain/supercell scenarios, and the doppler doesn't even exist from what I can see.

Put it this way, we will not be seeing any more radar images on Weatherzone that look even remotely as detailed and amazing as this:
1634188391757.png


Took me ages to find the state wide observations list, and when I did find it, it is basically completely useless and doesn't even load.

I sent an email 2 days ago expressing my disappointment in the new website, and the radar in particular (as a paying member), and they basically said "sorry".
In fairness. The radar is pretty meh at the moment (compared to the above) as the Wx is pretty flat. Its just light showers.
This looks pretty good, to me. I was watching that heavy shower to the E/NE of Blackheath.
wz radar.png
 
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Snowmaker7

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In fairness. The radar is pretty meh at the moment (compared to the above) as the Wx is pretty flat. Its just light showers.
This looks pretty good, to me. I was watching that heavy shower to the E/NE of Blackheath.
wz radar.png
It does seem to have a better resolution when you access the radar through a location's observations page than accessing it through the nation wide radar!

However it very much exaggerates what is normally just easily identifiable radar intensity blips/feedback/glitches. Refer to the orange glitch pixels between Blackheath and Colo Heights:

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What is really just glitches in the radar, clearly now show up mistakenly as maximum intensity storm cells
 
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Snowmaker7

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Yeah agree today atm its garden stuff. Not compassion to a supercell image.
Yeah wasn't using that image as a comparison of what was going to happen today (because it very clearly won't), just making a point to say this new radar won't be anywhere near as good in a similar scenario IMO. Happy to be proven wrong - we will just have to wait and see in the storm set ups in the coming 10 days!
 
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