Day to Day NSW / ACT weather

Donza

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Apr 21, 2004
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Yeah wasn't using that image as a comparison of what was going to happen today (because it very clearly won't), just making a point to say this new radar won't be anywhere near as good in a similar scenario IMO. Happy to be proven wrong - we will just have to wait and see in the storm set ups in the coming 10 days!
Have you played with all the layers?
Like .

Sunday may see some heavy rain/storms.
 
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Onboard

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Uzp3gj.png

Latest EPS ens max. Likely its thinking pressure gradient wind.
 

Onboard

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Big swell.
Big erosion.
Pretty much thinking this thing if it does verify off the coast. It will get a decent feed of warm unstable tropical moisture into it while offshore from the north. Time will tell no doubt.
 

Steve777

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Here is the forecast rainfall for the next 8 days (including today), according to the BOM:

18-FF3-E02-23-E1-470-B-BCEE-9-CEBE3-ED95-C0.jpg
.

Widespread rain over the continent, although no particularly big totals, at lesst on this scale.

NAEFS has a distinct cool signal over most of Australia starting in about a week: https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/semaine2_combinee_e.html (link will update). That usually indicates rain.

The long range forecast: wet and cool to mild, even if you add 2° to forecast maxima as I usually do for weather.com: https://weather.com/en-AU/weather/tenday/l/ASXX0112:1:AS. It shall rain for ever and ever…

La Nina is not my favourite part of the ENSO cycle. I hope that the coming summer is more like 2010-11 (tropical) than 2011-12 (Oceanic).
 

Jac0b

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Jul 5, 2019
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La Nina is not my favourite part of the ENSO cycle. I hope that the coming summer is more like 2010-11 (tropical) than 2011-12 (Oceanic).
Exactly I have been hoping for that too, a summer like 2010-11. Humid (although more stormy) and with proper hot weather, but low bushfire risk. This would be an awesome LaNina scenario.

I definitely do not want a repeat of summer 2011-12 or 2020-21. Two weeks in mid-Jan was good but December, February and March felt like mid autumn and were very cool and cloudy.
 
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Donza

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38mm in my rain gauge in Tuggeranong, ACT, today. New solar panels not churning out much power due to heavy cloud cover. Hoping for a break in the weather this Saturday as heading out for a ride then. Rare to see Canberra and surrounds so green ….
Yeah in my years of going to Canberra. Wednesday was the greenest i've seen it.

*my deliveries were around the embassy hill...specially green and lush.
 
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Snowmaker7

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25mm in the last 30 or so hours. radar tells me there's more to come this morning!

Correct me if I'm wrong but the storms on Sunday look like they will be quite slow moving? With no shortage of moisture in this system, there could be a bit of flash flooding around given the now saturated ground.
 

Donza

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25mm in the last 30 or so hours. radar tells me there's more to come this morning!

Correct me if I'm wrong but the storms on Sunday look like they will be quite slow moving? With no shortage of moisture in this system, there could be a bit of flash flooding around given the now saturated ground.
*wanders off to Layers to have a look.
 
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Steve777

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Not a drop of rain here so since I got up. It brightened up late morning with a bit of filtered sunshine that allowed it to reach a humid 25°. It’s like late Summer - in fact that’s how the Synoptic chart looks like for the Eastern Australian region. There’s now a bit of blue sky about.

Most of Sydney received over 10 mm to 9:00 AM, with falls over 25 mm Southwards and Westwards.

EDIT: Richmond has had about 13 mm in the past hour.
 

Homer

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UVoCUh.gif

And that was the fresh eps 00z run. If anything its consistent..

So, do you you have any anticipated opinions on what weather we can expect other than just providing maps?
I'm curious to know what is forthcoming so I can plan my work. Any advice would be appreciated. I certainly wouldn't hold you to any comments/forecasts/opinions you provide. Just trying to get an indication of your thoughts.
 

Donza

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Not a drop of rain here so since I got up. It brightened up late morning with a bit of filtered sunshine that allowed it to reach a humid 25°. It’s like late Summer - in fact that’s how the Synoptic chart looks like for the Eastern Australian region. There’s now a bit of blue sky about.

Most of Sydney received over 10 mm to 9:00 AM, with falls over 25 mm Southwards and Westwards.

EDIT: Richmond has had about 13 mm in the past hour.
I went for a beachside wander 3pm ish.
Was a incredibly fertile sky.
Watching little suburb sized cells pop up offshore.
I think the next two days will have some interesting afternoons.
 
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Onboard

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That's the Boms job full stop. They get big $$$. From monday start looking @ the
deterministic cycles for just a few days. And trust your own judgement.on them.
 

Onboard

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ROFLMAO @'know how to use a reply tab'.Sarcasm = ignore list from herein.
Owe you nothing.
 

Snowmaker7

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ROFLMAO @'know how to use a reply tab'.Sarcasm = ignore list from herein.
Owe you nothing.
You've been here for a week mate. If you'd been here longer you would probably realise that people will very quickly stop listening to you if you're going to be like that

UVoCUh.gif

And that was the fresh eps 00z run. If anything its consistent..

Correct me if I'm wrong but what you've been posting is the ensemble (there's 51 ensembles) maximum value? For me, I'll wait until until there's a bit more model alignment.

The models are in a fair agreeance that the system mid next week has moved more into the realm of an inland low thunderstorm system - but these are usually very complex and usually don't get a fair idea until at least 3 days out

Either way, exciting weather ahead to get us all through the working week next week!LOL
 

Donza

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You've been here for a week mate. If you'd been here longer you would probably realise that people will very quickly stop listening to you if you're going to be like that



Correct me if I'm wrong but what you've been posting is the ensemble (there's 51 ensembles) maximum value? For me, I'll wait until until there's a bit more model alignment.

The models are in a fair agreeance that the system mid next week has moved more into the realm of an inland low thunderstorm system - but these are usually very complex and usually don't get a fair idea until at least 3 days out

Either way, exciting weather ahead to get us all through the working week next week!LOL
On-board has been here (and wz forums) in various forms over time.
Loves a ensemble.

Yup. Big 10 days of weather lined up.
Incredibly muggy this morning.
However a nice seabreeze is helping.
 
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tastim

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May 10, 2018
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Can anyone tell us if the weather on the mts will get to the race? I'm watching the radar but seems to be moving slowly
 

AshestoAshes

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Tomorrow shaping up to be a half decent storm day, a relatively cloudless morning I think is what pushes it along. Some decent temps as well, hopefully November is the month to legitimise this storm season.

 
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tastim

Hard Yards
May 10, 2018
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Ok weather guru's, so tomorrow is other day with the weather a near certainly to a effect the day/night of racing. Sorry for asking so many questions. Not use to the weather in Sydney as in Oberon
 

Donza

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Ok weather guru's, so tomorrow is other day with the weather a near certainly to a effect the day/night of racing. Sorry for asking so many questions. Not use to the weather in Sydney as in Oberon
Tomorrow after 2pm.
Showers.
Heavy at times.
 
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Homer

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Ok weather guru's, so tomorrow is other day with the weather a near certainly to a effect the day/night of racing. Sorry for asking so many questions. Not use to the weather in Sydney as in Oberon

Ask as many questions as you like.
There's plenty of very kind and helpful people on here that will help you out.
Well, maybe. Except one that thinks it's the BOM's job to answer questions, beacuse they get paid the big bucks.
 

Snow Blowey

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Thanks mate, any tips on how to read the weather here as I've moved to the big smoke and it's completely different to what I'm used too
One thing i notice when i visit the coast is that its bloody hard to see what the weather is doing with taller trees and/or buildings and/or hills restricting views of the sky. Out my way you just watch it build and approach as you can see all around.
 

Donza

Dogs body...
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Apr 21, 2004
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That rain band had mostly fallen apart by the time it reached the coast. Falls were mostly under 2 mm.

The updated BOM forecast is still going for 27° and the possibility of a thunderstorm.
AXS-C is picking it like a dirty nose.

As per that model, heaviest rain will be this afternoon 2pm to 8pm for the Basin and surrounds.
Some decent totals on the tablelands as well.
Localised flooding under the slow cells a real chance.
 

Onboard

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UHMqLw.png
UHM2jF.png

For the salt of the earth guy from Oberon.
..........................................................................................................................................

UHMOXu.gif
 
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