Day to Day NSW / ACT weather

Enduro

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Feb 22, 2021
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A band of thundery rain is approaching from the west this morning and should be in the metro within the next hour.
BOM still going for storms this afternoon, possibly severe.
I went for my morning run at 6am it was mainly clear but very humid. Absolutely bucketing down by the time I got home 1hr later caught me by surprise as I wasn't expecting rain till this arvo. Looking like it's trying to clear up now
 

Jellybeans

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Aug 24, 2015
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Some very cool shots from the Capital last night:
897DE0B4-854C-4DF6-9A98-8A50B7A7C0FA.jpeg

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83FC003A-5BCF-46C0-9A94-2E572628A1CC.jpeg
 

AshestoAshes

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Anyone got an extra 5 degrees in their backpocket, the fact that we're so behind temperature forecast does worry me. EC has pegged my area at 25 degrees right about now, so about 2.5 degrees off. Prediction was also 33% clouds before storms kicked in.
 

Homer

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For those interested, there is an event thread which has been started here....

 
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Wavey

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For those interested, there is an event thread which has been started here....

Thanks mate, I have not logged on in a few days so did not see that.
 
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Adaminaby Angler

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Using Yr.no's Buddong Falls forecast (directly 20 km N of here @ 1,002 m AMSL and on the same ridge line)—continually matches observations I find, moreso than WZ's Hunters Hill.

Strikingly cold for Nov next week: maxima as low as 7° C on both next Sat and Mon with 110+ mm and possible sleet (down to 1° C); and 10° C, 11° C maxes on Sun and Fri. 9–13° C below average on four consecutive days!

lG1rP3W.jpg

RnXjp64.jpg
 
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Jac0b

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Jul 5, 2019
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To add to the above post, there seems to be a significant cold spell coming up for mid-November for southern Australia. Even inland areas like Alice Springs down to low-20's.

Adelaide
Thur 16
Fri 17
Sat 18
Sun 17
Mon 18

Melbourne
Fri 17
Sat 15
Sun 16
Mon 15

Canberra
Sat 14
Sun 15
Mon 14

Sydney is not forecast to be that cold due to the winds being westerly, low-mid 20's. It's identical to an August pattern where the southern states and GDR are very cold and wet and the east coast is warm and dry. Interesting for November for sure.

I'll note that the Northwest heat engine is also very cool for this time of year, Marble Bar averages 41 in November yet currently it's average is sitting below 38 and the next week is all mid-30's.

I think we're going to have a very late start to proper hot summery weather.
 

Homer

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To add to the above post, there seems to be a significant cold spell coming up for mid-November for southern Australia. Even inland areas like Alice Springs down to low-20's.

Adelaide
Thur 16
Fri 17
Sat 18
Sun 17
Mon 18

Melbourne
Fri 17
Sat 15
Sun 16
Mon 15

Canberra
Sat 14
Sun 15
Mon 14

Sydney is not forecast to be that cold due to the winds being westerly, low-mid 20's. It's identical to an August pattern where the southern states and GDR are very cold and wet and the east coast is warm and dry. Interesting for November for sure.

I'll note that the Northwest heat engine is also very cool for this time of year, Marble Bar averages 41 in November yet currently it's average is sitting below 38 and the next week is all mid-30's.

I think we're going to have a very late start to proper hot summery weather.

Great observations. Thanks for posting.
I have a gut feel that we will have this wet, cooler spell (according to averages), for a bit, and then summer will hit with a vengeance, off and on. Although, not quite as bad as if the NW of the continent had had time to heat up and transfer extreme heat to the East like the Black Summer.
Moister periods, occasional bursts of heat and back to moister periods again. A true La Nina.
With the increased moisture available atm, it's going to be
 

Jac0b

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Great observations. Thanks for posting.
I have a gut feel that we will have this wet, cooler spell (according to averages), for a bit, and then summer will hit with a vengeance, off and on.
Actually the LaNina of 1998-2001 produced 3 years of very cold Novembers.

1998-99 LaNina had a very cold November with huge stretches of low 20's, followed by a summer exactly as you described with stretches of mid 30's and short periods of cooler in between. No extreme heat and no week long south-easterlies.

1999-2000 LaNina had a very cold November, very cold December and very cold January with huge stretches of low 20's, then February suddenly went high 30's with a bang.

Then 2000-01 LaNina was different yet again, with a very cold November followed by a summer with prolonged stretches of mid/high 30's and 40's.

I really hope that the 1999-2000 pattern does not repeat this year. The 30-day period from mid December to mid January had 1 day above 28°C at Parramatta. The average for this period is about 28°C-29°C, so that was an insane stretch of abnormally cold weather.
 

Steve777

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The Millennium Spring and Summer were quite cold. As the big Odometer in the sky was about to click over, the weather was so crap that I was glad that I had deferred my holidays (I was involved in systems support for Y2K). That Summer suddenly ‘came good’ in February, although there had been a three-day heatwave in an otherwise cool January.

In 2011, the season went into reverse on December 1. December was a very cool and wet month, but in compensation, quite stormy. Christmas was mild and sunny. That season improved from mid January, with temperatures returning to near average, but there was no real heat that season.

So with La Nina about to be declared, we’ll see how this Summer works out.
 
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Wavey

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To add to the above post, there seems to be a significant cold spell coming up for mid-November for southern Australia. Even inland areas like Alice Springs down to low-20's.

Adelaide
Thur 16
Fri 17
Sat 18
Sun 17
Mon 18

Melbourne
Fri 17
Sat 15
Sun 16
Mon 15

Canberra
Sat 14
Sun 15
Mon 14

Sydney is not forecast to be that cold due to the winds being westerly, low-mid 20's. It's identical to an August pattern where the southern states and GDR are very cold and wet and the east coast is warm and dry. Interesting for November for sure.

I'll note that the Northwest heat engine is also very cool for this time of year, Marble Bar averages 41 in November yet currently it's average is sitting below 38 and the next week is all mid-30's.

I think we're going to have a very late start to proper hot summery weather.

Yeah and plenty of snow for the Alps as well.
 

Billy_Buttons

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Actually the LaNina of 1998-2001 produced 3 years of very cold Novembers.

1998-99 LaNina had a very cold November with huge stretches of low 20's, followed by a summer exactly as you described with stretches of mid 30's and short periods of cooler in between. No extreme heat and no week long south-easterlies.

1999-2000 LaNina had a very cold November, very cold December and very cold January with huge stretches of low 20's, then February suddenly went high 30's with a bang.

Then 2000-01 LaNina was different yet again, with a very cold November followed by a summer with prolonged stretches of mid/high 30's and 40's.

I really hope that the 1999-2000 pattern does not repeat this year. The 30-day period from mid December to mid January had 1 day above 28°C at Parramatta. The average for this period is about 28°C-29°C, so that was an insane stretch of abnormally cold weather.
Christmas 1999 in Jindabyne was freezing. Wood fire burned all week and snow up the mountains.
 
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Jac0b

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Jul 5, 2019
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Western Sydney
Today felt very cool, maxing at 19°C across Sydney under overcast stratus and breezy southerlies.

Classic LaNina hallmark when post-southerly days like this occur when the preceding days were also cold without any NW winds and heat.
 
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Steve777

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Jul 4, 2019
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Well today was a bit of a downer. Temperature stuck around 18-19° for 24 hours, gloomy, grey dome skies and persistent, annoying misty rain, apparently not enough to register. No more days like today please!

It’s raining properly now, with 2.4 mm this evening at OH and 10 mm at Penrith. The radar and the satellite map seem to be showing the rain shifting Southwards, so Sydney might not get much more tonight. We shall see.

The Synoptic map is unusual, showing a warm front across the North of the State. The short-term forecast map shows it being chased down by the cold front cold front behind it and the occluded system passing Sydney by about mid-morning tomorrow. Hopefully we’ll see some sun tomorrow afternoon. The forecast maximum (24°) suggests that we will.
 

Jac0b

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Some impressive stats from a huge area in Southern Australia. What's even more impressive is the constant well-below average temps continuing well after.

Kalgoorlie had it's coldest November day on record on the 9th with 13.5°C, beating 13.9°C in 1939 (records back to 1939).

Adelaide (West Terrace + Kent) had it's fourth coldest November day on record on the 11th with 14.1°C, coldest was 13.0°C in 1994 (records back to 1887).

Coober Pedy had it's coldest November day on record on the 11th with 15.4°C, beating 16.7°C in 1970 (records back to 1965).

Mildura had it's second coldest November day on record at 14.2°C, coldest was 13.6°C in 1955 (records back to 1946).

This is a huge contrast to Nov 2020 and 2019. I'm interested to see temperatures with this super cold airmass in more eastern areas (Canberra, Bathurst, etc)
 

Untele-whippet

beard stroker
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Jul 13, 2006
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EC is a recipe for cold and blustery conditions again tomorrow.
UL1yBR.gif


ULInIg.gif


...................................................................................................................................................
That's enough for me until the next interesting weather pattern arises.
Has been cool, occasionally damp and blustery all day.
676C0193-E0DD-4DD6-A29C-C96FC7FFBDF0.jpeg
 
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Donza

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No comment. The mods have been on to it.
Yeah. Was odd. Anyway.

A few light showers embedded in a cool southerly here in the Illawarra.

My fb memories are full of pool days this weekend.
I'm cosy in a jumper after a deep pot of nabe.
 
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beard stroker
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Jul 13, 2006
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Got down to 6.6°C under that blustery shower here in Bowral - odd pea sized hail mixed in too. Good chance of some snow showers on the highest peaks tonight on the CTs IMO. BOM including it in this afternoon's forecast update also!
D358013B-0684-4A46-A3BD-F2D8A38FACAB.jpeg

Really windy today with intermittent rain.
Wintry.
Tonight looks very, very windy.
Upper BMs.
 

Steve777

One of Us
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Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
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Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
Sydney’s forecast now includes the ‘T’ word: “Mostly clear. Medium (40%) chance of a light gusty shower or thunderstorm. Winds westerly 30 to 45 km/h.”

I’ve had a couple of “gusty showers “ here. The wind really blew hard around 5:30 PM. I note that Fort Denison and Sydney Harbour had gusts close to 70 kph around 5:45 PM and the temperature at OH dropped by around 5° about that time.

====

Another mild day, a bit warmer then recent days, still a bit blowy with a mix of sun and cloud:

A4532088-CF6-D-46-C7-A064-219-B204-F4851.jpg
 

Joshua Randazzo

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Jan 1, 2021
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Sydney’s forecast now includes the ‘T’ word: “Mostly clear. Medium (40%) chance of a light gusty shower or thunderstorm. Winds westerly 30 to 45 km/h.”

I’ve had a couple of “gusty showers “ here. The wind really blew hard around 5:30 PM. I note that Fort Denison and Sydney Harbour had gusts close to 70 kph around 5:45 PM and the temperature at OH dropped by around 5° about that time.

====

Another mild day, a bit warmer then recent days, still a bit blowy with a mix of sun and cloud:

A4532088-CF6-D-46-C7-A064-219-B204-F4851.jpg
is that lake parramatta?
 

Homer

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Aug 3, 2005
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Castle Hill - Sydney
Sydney’s forecast now includes the ‘T’ word: “Mostly clear. Medium (40%) chance of a light gusty shower or thunderstorm. Winds westerly 30 to 45 km/h.”

I’ve had a couple of “gusty showers “ here. The wind really blew hard around 5:30 PM. I note that Fort Denison and Sydney Harbour had gusts close to 70 kph around 5:45 PM and the temperature at OH dropped by around 5° about that time.

====

Another mild day, a bit warmer then recent days, still a bit blowy with a mix of sun and cloud:

A4532088-CF6-D-46-C7-A064-219-B204-F4851.jpg

Steve, I mentioned before that Richmond had 70 km/h gusts as the change came through.
It's amazing how often you repeat the same conditions that have already been posted by others, but just for your area.
Thanks though for the update of the T word in BOM's forecast issued at 7.51 pm. Looks highly unlikely though.

Surprisingly cold outside for this time of year, but not completely unusual for November. We occasionally get these colder outbreaks at this time of year.
13.2 deg's with still gusty westerlies making the wind chill quite savage for Sydney at this time of year.
 

Wavey

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98 kph gust up here at 6.00 am.
Howled all night.
3C atm, wind chill - 10C
Part of the neighbour’s shed has blown away.
Surprised at the amount of wind there given the winds were only very light all night at home. Usually in Wollongong the gusts are pretty similar to the BMs in a westerly. Seems to very much be favouring the higher ground.

I reckon we'll get the big winds tonight, while it eases on the ranges. Seems to happen often enough at the back of a cold front.
 
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