Day to Day NSW / ACT weather

filski

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Anybody familiar with the Barrington Tops area here? I'm wondering if there are trees down over the trails from the winds on the weekend.

We have a group that wants to ride to Moonan Flats via Carters Road, Poly Fogal Road, Tomalla, divert via Pheasant Creek Rd onto Barrington Trail to link across to the Barrington Tops Forest Road. Riding sat and sunday.

I'm not worried about the riders, it's more the support vehicle (LR discovery) and getting that through. Sun looks iffy with rain incoming again too, trying to work out if we can get out of the slippery areas in time.

Forecast looks like another low tracking over the SE at some point on the weekend, good support between ECM and GFS.
 

Snowmaker7

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Does anyone know where to find the state observations list on the new weatherzone website? Or did they chop that like they did with all of the marine and swell forecasts (and other stuff too ie. doopler :rolleyes:) ?
 

connells

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Exercise:
Fill in the fronts and label the centre of the pressure systems. 5 points.
Explain your reasoning. 5 points.
Screen Shot 2021-11-16 at 12.57.20.png
 
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AshestoAshes

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GFS hinting at big burst of heat at the start of December, but Access-S doesn't like it one bit neither does CFS. Although it does seem a bit sketchy 40+ temperatures with mid 35mm PWAT (that's La Nina for you tho). My predictions for 35,40 are likely being taken to the cleaners this year :confused:
Screen Shot 2021-11-17 at 11.43.05 pm.png

Screen Shot 2021-11-17 at 11.43.22 pm.png
 
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Steve777

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GFS hinting at big burst of heat at the start of December, but Access-S doesn't like it one bit neither does CFS. Although it does seem a bit sketchy 40+ temperatures with mid 35mm PWAT (that's La Nina for you tho)…
A couple of days ago I noticed that GFS was showing an apparent burst of heat to start Summer, but that’s gone from the latest run. As you say, it wasn’t in the other models. The models are now showing the typical La Nina pattern of frequent / persistent low pressure to the East of the continent and repeated troughs and lows forming over land or in the Bight and crossing the continent. The few periods of NW quadrant winds that will occur on the East Coast this season will tend to be accompanied by extensive cloud plus showers, as is forecast for tomorrow.

Not a brilliant Summer coming up, but maybe a goos storm season plus bushfires probably won’t be a problem (but no excuse for complacency).
 
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Jac0b

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LaNina has really dominated this November.

With the continuation of low-20's showery weather, most weather stations in Sydney including the West are going to end up with average maximums of about 23°C, about 3-4°C below average for the West.

The record low average November max for Parramatta and Bankstown (50+years of records) is just under 23°C, so this may actually be broken by the end of the month, or at the very least it will be very close. For Richmond (since late 1920's) the record is 23.5°C so even that long standing record is a possibility. It will be really close either way.

Most stations (except Penrith) haven't hit 30 and probably won't this entire month. At Parramatta and Richmond, only one November has this distinction, and at Bankstown two Novembers achieved this.

The scarcity of days above even a mild 25°C this November reminds me of Dec 2011. The sunshine hours are averaging 6.6 but that will probably drop to 6 by the end of November. There has also been lots of rain, and plenty more to come.

The next two weeks will continue to be very December 2011-like:

FEuWqwt.png
 
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Steve777

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Solid overcast and light rain here this morning. A rain band has popped into existence over parts of Sydney. Hopefully there’ll be some breaks today before the coming rain event.

The BOM are still going for 28-30° across Sydney but I wouldn't be surprised to see a downgrade soon.

EDIT 11:50 AM. It’s brightening up here, with a bit of blue sky poking through the thinning cloud. It’s warming nicely, Penrith has shot up to 30°, probably under filtered sunshine, while Camden and Campbelltown are on 28°. A NE’er has Sprung up near the coast.
 
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Wavey

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Solid overcast and light rain here this morning. A rain band has popped into existence over parts of Sydney. Hopefully there’ll be some breaks today before the coming rain event.

The BOM are still going for 28-30° across Sydney but I wouldn't be surprised to see a downgrade soon.

EDIT 11:50 AM. It’s brightening up here, with a bit of blue sky poking through the thinning cloud. It’s warming nicely, Penrith has shot up to 30°, probably under filtered sunshine, while Camden and Campbelltown are on 28°. A NE’er has Sprung up near the coast.
Car says 29 in the western burbs of Wollongong and can confirm it does feel pretty hot. When I left the beach 20 mins ago it said 23. Definitely a lot hotter than I was expecting. The southerly is creeping up the coast though so it won't last long.
 
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Steve777

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The Southerly reached Ulladulla around 11:50 AM but had not reached Point Perpendicular by 12:25. It dropped temps by about 5-6°.

The sun’s now shining through thin high cloud. Maybe it will reach 27° in Sydney - normally no big deal at this time of year, but it would be the first time in 3 weeks and it might be another 3 weeks before it gets there again.
 
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Steve777

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Yesterday was the fifth in a run of sunny days (10 hours plus). Today was fairly cloudy but there was enough sun from late morning to allow a number of Sydney sites including OH to pass 30°, unexpected, especially under NNE-NE winds. It was quite muggy, more like late Summer than late Spring.

However, we won’t be seeing 30° or runs of sunny days again in Sydney for a while. A Southerly is just reaching reaching Sydney Airport now. It looks set to drift a little further North and sort of disappear in the succession of troughs and lows set to bombard the State. The models show no end in sight to the troughy pattern about to set in. It shall rain forever and ever…
 

Steve777

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Looking ahead, ACCESS sees a break in the cool, showery pattern for Sydney from the 30th, after another wet weekend, with a sunny start to Summer. There’s even a hint of heat after the end of the 10-day run.

ECMWF starts out similar, with the break starting a day earlier. However, the break is short-lived, with the troughy, showery pattern resuming by the end of the run.

GFS shows a break at the end if the month as well, but with the high pressure belt remaining well to the South and ridging along the NSW coast, winds on the NSW coast remain in the SE quadrant indefinitely, which would mean relatively cool and likely fairly cloudy conditions with showers for the first week of Summer.
 

Gleno71

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Looking ahead, ACCESS sees a break in the cool, showery pattern for Sydney from the 30th, after another wet weekend, with a sunny start to Summer. There’s even a hint of heat after the end of the 10-day run.

ECMWF starts out similar, with the break starting a day earlier. However, the break is short-lived, with the troughy, showery pattern resuming by the end of the run.

GFS shows a break at the end if the month as well, but with the high pressure belt remaining well to the South and ridging along the NSW coast, winds on the NSW coast remain in the SE quadrant indefinitely, which would mean relatively cool and likely fairly cloudy conditions with showers for the first week of Summer.
I noticed over the years , Sydney cannot seem to have a long run of hot days in the Summer months . Im talking weeks of warm-hot weather, maybe with the exception of El Nino years. Be interesting to see what the lowest rainfall record for DEC-JAN-FEB period is for sydney .
 
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Jac0b

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I notice that in summer areas not too far inland like Bathurst do get long uninterrupted strings of 30/35+ temps, so hot weather patterns do stick around for weeks.

But in Sydney (west) we'll get 3 days of mid-high 30's, followed by a southerly for one or two days (low-high 20's) then back to high 30's or 40's, then repeat.

I think the topography between the high GDR and ocean means that southerlies will almost always break up even the biggest heatwaves because they are forced up the coast so easily.

We don't get the completely uninterrupted strings of heat for weeks on end. I think the longest strings we get is maybe ~10 days of 35/40+, like in Jan 1979, Feb 2004, Feb 2009, Feb 2011, Dec 2018 etc. Interestingly LaNina years seem to produce the uninterrupted heatwave vs ElNino where it's in shorter more intense bursts.

Without the GDR we would probably get more Bathurst-style strings of heat (but hotter and more humid) because there would be no southerlies affecting the coastline, but this is just a guess.
 

Adaminaby Angler

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I notice that in summer areas not too far inland like Bathurst do get long uninterrupted strings of 30/35+ temps, so hot weather patterns do stick around for weeks.

But in Sydney (west) we'll get 3 days of mid-high 30's, followed by a southerly for one or two days (low-high 20's) then back to high 30's or 40's, then repeat.

I think the topography between the high GDR and ocean means that southerlies will almost always break up even the biggest heatwaves because they are forced up the coast so easily.

We don't get the completely uninterrupted strings of heat for weeks on end. I think the longest strings we get is maybe ~10 days of 35/40+, like in Jan 1979, Feb 2004, Feb 2009, Feb 2011, Dec 2018 etc. Interestingly LaNina years seem to produce the uninterrupted heatwave vs ElNino where it's in shorter more intense bursts.

Without the GDR we would probably get more Bathurst-style strings of heat (but hotter and more humid) because there would be no southerlies affecting the coastline, but this is just a guess.
The heat in Sydney without the GDR will also be a lot less extreme, because the GDR is the reason Sydney's record maxima are so high compared to inland areas (i.e., downwinds). Compare Penrith to, say, Griffith—the latter has notably milder extremes despite the average being significantly greater.

Without the GDR, Penrith would be lucky to pass even 45° C (let alone 49° C) and Sydney would virtually never exceed 40° C.

Down here in the Riverina, the pattern is largely 'Bathurst-style' but also with the occasional westerly cold front.
 

corneym

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When developing software mlsdev.com/services/web-development, the first step is to write a user story. User stories are a raw description of how the software is going to work. This is a critical part of the software design process because it helps you understand how to create a useful product. Moreover, a user story is easy to change and adapt, so the whole process can proceed much more quickly. If you've ever used a computer program, you'll know how important the user experience is to a user.
 
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Steve777

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I understand that our inland agricultural areas, especially for wheat, want most of their rain in Winter and early Spring, not Summer.

EDIT: and while I'm here, just a quick whinge.
<begin whinge> One of my least favourite features of La Nina is this constant barrage of cloud bands from the West and North West, many of them unproductive. Let's have some Sun before the rain returns.<end whinge>
 

Wavey

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Sun has been out for a while here and the wind is not a fresh southerly originating from south of 60 degrees latitude!

Amazing how nice it feels when conditions allow it to be sunny, warm and humid.
Don't get too excited, the weekend is looking decidedly Antarctic. Max of just 17 expected here on Saturday.

We haven't been so lucky down here. We had maybe an hour of sunshine before the cloud made a return.
 

Steve777

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Yes it’s been a reasonably sunny afternoon here, mostly filtered through thin high cloud, but still allowing Sydney sites to reach 26-27°. It was quite humid as well, feeling like late Summer.

The Sydney radar’s filling up, with storm cells in the Blue Mountains and Hunter. These are moving to the SSE, so unless cells develop later in the Sydney Basin, we won’t see anything much here.

Rain is on the way, however, starting tomorrow. I thought that I’d get into the outdoors before it arrives:

5-CC358-F3-20-E1-47-EE-A0-F0-EF9-A47-AF9-CE6.jpg
 

connells

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Don't get too excited, the weekend is looking decidedly Antarctic. Max of just 17 expected here on Saturday.

We haven't been so lucky down here. We had maybe an hour of sunshine before the cloud made a return.
Not just the weekend. Friday is looking putrid as well with an early arrival of the southerly.

I guess a code red ice cream vendor alert should be issued post haste.

Used to hate these weekends when I did surf live saving patrols. Cold, wet and windy all day with nothing to do and the bastard duty lifeguard wouldn't close the beach so we could go home.
 
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