Day to Day NSW / ACT weather

ShavedBadger

NUKE PENSIONERS
Ski Pass
Apr 30, 2018
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Well putting away the poor weather of November, absolutely perfect summer arvo to start with. 25-27 degrees across the basin with the skies opening up blue and up to about bankstown AP we've got the seabreeze gusting away at 30km/h.

Cloudy all day here in Newcastle, with a nor’easter blowing in off the sea. Only the odd patch of blue sky. Kinda hoping some of this clears by Friday for my drive to Bathurst!
 

Snow Blowey

Old n' Crusty
Ski Pass
Jan 7, 2004
27,319
27,358
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Dubbo NSW
Flooding in the Namoi is clearly visible around Wee Waa this morning:

namoi sat 021221.jpg


I think its floodwater you can see along the Macintyre at Goondiwindi and further west also.

bourke sat 021221.jpg
 

Snow Blowey

Old n' Crusty
Ski Pass
Jan 7, 2004
27,319
27,358
1,063
Dubbo NSW
Clear view over Texas and Inglewood now showing the big pulse of water coming down the Dumaresq and Macintyre Brook into Macintyre. Can also see floodwaters into QLD around St George and Taroom.

Last weeks flooding of Castlereagh can be seen about half way between Coonamble and Walgett.

There is a shit tonne of water flowing along the Macquarie past Dubbo and beyond but it is not showing up. Too much greenery out on the marshes to see it flowing underneath. Floodwater in the lower Laclan also not very visible anymore but it will be spread out in the green growth.
 

Enduro

Early Days
Feb 22, 2021
47
99
18
Sun was out and felt very warm and sweaty on on my run first time in a long while. Been an active runner have been enjoying the unusual cooler temps for this time of year yet at the same time been missing the sun and blue sky
 
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Adaminaby Angler

One of Us
Ski Pass
November 2021 Summary

YrH1njS.jpg


Profoundly cool and wet. Of note are my maxima of just 7.5° C and 7.2° C on the 14th and 15th respectively (8.9° C and 8.1° C @ Hunters Hill); in that event spanning the 11th–15th, 142.6 mm fell, largely as cold rain around 4°–5° C and even a few occurences of 2°–3° C sleet. I also had a daily rainfall of 90.4 mm on the 25th, with an event total of 134.8 mm from the 24th–27th.

Anomalies @ Hunters Hill (1993–2020)

tYUIXjg.jpg


• Mean Maximum: 17.2° C (–2.8° C)

• Mean Minimum: 8.9° C (–1.2° C)

• Precipitation: 217.8 mm (238.8%)

4jpayA7.jpg
 
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Edge72

One of Us
Apr 3, 2020
208
284
163
Sydney
The BOM love to forecast that mythical Sydney thunderstorm don’t they. It would bet it comes of 1 out 5 forecasts. This past 7 days alone there was mention in the forecast of a ‘thunderstorm ‘none have come off.
 
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Donza

Dogs body...
Platinum
Apr 21, 2004
132,226
92,801
3,563
woonona
The BOM love to forecast that mythical Sydney thunderstorm don’t they. It would bet it comes of 1 out 5 forecasts. This past 7 days alone there was mention in the forecast of a ‘thunderstorm ‘none have come off.
Is it possible for you to post without having a go at the BOM?
*as he watches a storm out west on the radar.
 

Long Road Home

One of Us
Aug 7, 2020
104
404
163
Is it possible for you to post without having a go at the BOM?
*as he watches a storm out west on the radar.
Yeah, or to at least be a bit constructive with the argument.

Edge72 said:
"This past 7 days alone there was mention in the forecast of a ‘thunderstorm ‘none have come off."

Can you post the forecast for those 7 days to prove that thunderstorms were forecast? Because I don't recall it as such.
 

Homer

One of Us
Ski Pass
Aug 3, 2005
1,909
5,121
363
Castle Hill - Sydney
The BOM love to forecast that mythical Sydney thunderstorm don’t they. It would bet it comes of 1 out 5 forecasts. This past 7 days alone there was mention in the forecast of a ‘thunderstorm ‘none have come off.

To be fair, the BOM have had a low chance of storms (20 - 30%, mainly for the west), in their forecasts for the past few days.
The storms have been skirting the Blue Mountains the past few days.
It wasn't an impossible scenario that something might have popped up in Sydney's west.
I think you are being a bit harsh on them.
If they don't forecast it, and it pops up, you'd be having a go at them for being wrong as well.
I've said it before and I will say it again. Meteorology is the most inexact and unpredictable science. The variables change by the minute. A two or three sentence forecast cannot, and will not, always be perfect.
 

Jimi

Hard Yards
Sep 10, 2021
58
142
33
Roseville
The rainfall ranges tell you all you need to know about probabilities. That word is in tomorrow's forecast, but with a precipitation range of 0mm - 0.4mm (i.e. 75% likely it'll be less than 0.4mm) the chance of one popping up in a particular spot is pretty low (and by extension, higher but still probably pretty low over a wide area like the Basin).
 

Steve777

One of Us
Ski Pass
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
1,488
4,423
363
Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
Re thunderstorms, there were some interesting convective-looking clouds to the West this afternoon, so there was some development although in the Sydney Basin it didn’t come to much. The radar showed some storm cells on the Central ranges.

Anyway, we have more perfect Summer weather tomorrow morning before a change around Noon brings us more cloud, possible but unlikely storms and not much rain. Saturday looks like a mixed bag - do your outdoor stuff early. Then it’s stygian gloom from Saturday afternoon, cool, cloudy and windy, although not much rain. There’s a brief respite Wednesday before a stonking great high plants itself at about 50°S below the Bight and crawls across to the longitude of NZ over the following week.

Maybe things improve after that. We shall see.
 

Snow Blowey

Old n' Crusty
Ski Pass
Jan 7, 2004
27,319
27,358
1,063
Dubbo NSW
This is the gauge at Burrendong on Sunday when we went up to look at the spill. I few weeks back it was at about 345m (i think thats 100%). Hard to comprehend how much water is sitting on top. I was imagining a 7m thick slab across the whole lake (lots of which extends 10's of kilometers from where this photo was taken). Based on the storage level figures that equates to about 500GL.

IMG_20211128_153551745.jpg
 

Snow Blowey

Old n' Crusty
Ski Pass
Jan 7, 2004
27,319
27,358
1,063
Dubbo NSW
As reported on the news last night downstream is in a bit of trouble if we get another decent event in the next week. Current releases just shy of 40GL/day are about all that can go without causing major flooding downstream of Dubbo, but have only lowered the level about 7% over the past week. They managed to get away with similar in 2016 over about a 3 month period of managed releases and a short three years later it was at 1%!
 

Edge72

One of Us
Apr 3, 2020
208
284
163
Sydney
Is it possible for you to post without having a go at the BOM?
*as he watches a storm out west on the radar.

I have done so many times.

My post has fact to back it up and was just a general observation. In my part of the Sydney Basin we have had the ‘chance’ or ‘risk’ or ‘possible’ thunderstorm in our forecast for the past 7 days.

What’s wrong with mentioning that?

Sure ur not being payed to be head of ‘making sure the BOM only are seen in a good light and that they not be shown to make a mistake EVER’
in here ?

You would just love this forum to be ur own little ‘boys club’ wouldn’t you. So you wouldnt have to read posts like mine be it accurate, incorrect, stupid, misinformation or otherwise.

Lighten up ! Life’s too short!
 

Joshua Randazzo

One of Us
Jan 1, 2021
355
297
163
near sydney CBD.
IMO its very hard to almost impossible to be 100% right with weather like on new years day 1947 the forecast was "a local thunderstorm but mostly fine and warm" but we all know what happened on that day.
 

thechapo

Hard Yards
Oct 31, 2020
25
41
68

Detailed Severe Thunderstorm Warning​

for DAMAGING WINDS and LARGE HAILSTONES​

For people in parts of Maitland/Cessnock and Wollondilly/Wingecarribee areas.
Issued at 2:52 pm Friday, 3 December 2021.
1638503427970.png
1638503427970.png

The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 2:50 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on the weather radar near Oakdale, Yerranderie and Wollombi. These thunderstorms are moving towards the east to northeast. They are forecast to affect Camden, Picton and Cessnock by 3:20 pm and Branxton, Kurri Kurri and Lochinvar by 3:50 pm.
Damaging winds and large hailstones are likely.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move your car under cover or away from trees.
* Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
* Keep at least 8 metres away from fallen power lines or objects that may be energised, such as fences.
* Report fallen power lines to either Ausgrid (131 388), Endeavour Energy (131 003), Essential Energy (132 080) or Evoenergy (131 093) as shown on your power bill.
* Unplug computers and appliances.
* Avoid using the phone during the storm.
* Stay indoors away from windows, and keep children and pets indoors as well.
* For emergency help in floods and storms, ring the SES (NSW and ACT) on 132 500.

The next warning is due to be issued by 3:55 pm.
A more general severe thunderstorm warning is also current for parts of the Hunter, Metropolitan, Illawarra, Central Tablelands and Southern Tablelands districts.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
 

Steve777

One of Us
Ski Pass
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
1,488
4,423
363
Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
Here’s the satellite view (visible) of Sydney and surrounds at 12:15 today. The Southerly, which passed through Sydney around 11:00, appears to be extending SSE’wards from Broken Bay, marked by a line of cloud (a roll cloud?). The marine layer is established South of Kiama and is starting to form over coastal Sydney.

E9-A8172-B-C914-4-E9-B-92-BA-E2-CDBA30-B025.jpg


The Southerly had a bit of a punch on the coast. The Airport dropped from 28° to 22° between 11:00 and 12:00 and is now below 20°.

It’s got pretty gloomy in the last hour or so, but the scud cloud that closed in earlier hides any view.

A solid black core storm is heading for Penrith.

EDIT: hearing a few rumbles.
 

Steve777

One of Us
Ski Pass
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
1,488
4,423
363
Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
This afternoon was strange. It was dark (lights on during the day) with rumbling thunder for an hour or so but little or no rain. WZ Layers showed lightning symbols across Sydney’s NW and North to the coast, but only very light rain. The actual storm cells stayed well to the West.

Anvil cloud?
 
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