Not for Wollongong.The BOM have ramped up totals for late next week in this afternoons update.
I've seen in the past when models are forecasting something big 7 days out, the BOM slowly gets on board initially, and then ramps up totals as the event approaches. The forecasts can also fade away to almost nothing.
I reckon Tuesday is D-Day for confirmation of the above models.
Was keen for a swim friday.I really hope it gets scaled back to nothing, we've had more than enough rain. Of course early signs are for it to occur on a weekend.
Also speaking of SST's, I went for a swim the other day and the water was probably the warmest I've felt it in December.
You have to wonder how 2 degrees can make a differance? Like i swim in the ocean a fair bit and i dont even notice the change from a 22c to a 24c ocean tempThe warmest SSTs on the planet now concentrated directly above Australia. This time last year the West Pacific Warm Pool, north of PNG was still holding 31 Deg over a very large area, it’s 2 deg cooler this season.
Max here was 18c at 10am before it dropped to about 15-16c which is where it stayed all arvo. Currently 13c outside and drizzling.
I'm absolutely loving the days like this when at work- it's a blessing as an outdoor worker in summer as you know, but it's been soooo long since we've had decent weekend weather.Wasn't much better here. Was around 16-17 (reached 19 during a brief sunny spell) all day due to continual drizzle or showers. It didn't warm up much during the drier spells due to the thick southerly scud cloud cover.
I quite enjoyed it.
EC still has 300mm over the next week for Narooma area.I’ve been looking in the models on WZ for a break in the current pattern of alternating Southerlies and cloud bands.
The threat / promise of an extreme rain event seems to have dissipated, although the cool, cloudy and sometimes wet pattern continues for another 5-6 days, with maybe a brief respite tomorrow if the mid-level cloud can give us a break. Things next improve from early next week with a couple of fine, warm days before another trough arrives.
Going further ahead, GFS is now showing a significant heatwave around the 20th-21st with 850 temps over Sydney around 22-24° rather than single figures, a high rather than a trough in the Northern Tasman and 850/700 humidity both under 90%, so not overcast. That will likely change as we get closer but hopefully not back to the recent usual. It’s just good to see something different.
The blue blob has finally gone from our area for the first time since forever on your fav chart https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/semaine2_combinee_e.html.Going further ahead, GFS is now showing a significant heatwave around the 20th-21st with 850 temps over Sydney around 22-24° rather than single figures, a high rather than a trough in the Northern Tasman and 850/700 humidity both under 90%, so not overcast. That will likely change as we get closer but hopefully not back to the recent usual. It’s just good to see something different.
Beaut and sunny here rn.Sydney has just had a total of 12 minutes of sunshine over a period of three days (Saturday to Monday) for a total of 2 mm of rain - can definitely do better. And I would like to think that Sunday was Sydney's last sub-20 maximum until April or May although I'm not hopeful.
Regarding heat late in Summer, it should at least get warmer. The Summer of 1999-2000, which this season seems to resemble, came good in February, with an earlier three day burst of heat in January. After the cold December of 2011, it warmed up to about a degree below average for the rest of the season, with no real heat (e.g. Bankstown hottest was 36 degrees, the only day over 35 there that Summer).
Just hearing cicadas at home for the first time this Summer. I heard them for the first time this season in nearby bushland on Friday morning when it was sunny. It's not yet the raucous chorus of recent years. I was thinking maybe they crawled out, had a look around and though "Nah! we'll wait another year"