Day to Day NSW / ACT weather

Rainbow Serpant

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Nov 5, 2020
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Rockhampton / Gulmarrad NSW
The warmest SSTs on the planet now concentrated directly above Australia. This time last year the West Pacific Warm Pool, north of PNG was still holding 31 Deg over a very large area, it’s 2 deg cooler this season.

3D319619-0772-4B27-B4C0-0A4FE44F6C5F.png
 

Jac0b

Hard Yards
Jul 5, 2019
88
251
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Western Sydney
The last couple of days were in the high 20's, SUNNY, and muggy, felt very very nice!

Today and tomorrow is post-southerly low-20's stuff but thankfully not the drizzly kind.

Tuesday then gets to high 20's before another week of high teens/low 20's with southerlies and rain.
 

Homer

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Aug 3, 2005
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Castle Hill - Sydney
The BOM have ramped up totals for late next week in this afternoons update.
I've seen in the past when models are forecasting something big 7 days out, the BOM slowly gets on board initially, and then ramps up totals as the event approaches. The forecasts can also fade away to almost nothing.
I reckon Tuesday is D-Day for confirmation of the above models.
 

Donza

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Apr 21, 2004
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The BOM have ramped up totals for late next week in this afternoons update.
I've seen in the past when models are forecasting something big 7 days out, the BOM slowly gets on board initially, and then ramps up totals as the event approaches. The forecasts can also fade away to almost nothing.
I reckon Tuesday is D-Day for confirmation of the above models.
Not for Wollongong.
Strangely
 
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Donza

Dogs body...
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Apr 21, 2004
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I really hope it gets scaled back to nothing, we've had more than enough rain. Of course early signs are for it to occur on a weekend.

Also speaking of SST's, I went for a swim the other day and the water was probably the warmest I've felt it in December.
Was keen for a swim friday.

Alas...southerly hit.
 
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Gleno71

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Jul 4, 2019
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Gold Coast, Queensland
The warmest SSTs on the planet now concentrated directly above Australia. This time last year the West Pacific Warm Pool, north of PNG was still holding 31 Deg over a very large area, it’s 2 deg cooler this season.

3D319619-0772-4B27-B4C0-0A4FE44F6C5F.png
You have to wonder how 2 degrees can make a differance? Like i swim in the ocean a fair bit and i dont even notice the change from a 22c to a 24c ocean temp
 

connells

One of Us
Feels like a perverse inverse of Christmas in July today; Winter in December.

I was playing with some stats for Obs Hill. Maximum temps in December.
Out of 5,115 days where Obs Hill has recorded a max temp.

223 failed to reach 20.0
89 failed to reach 19.0
35 failed to reach 18.0
14 failed to reach 17.0
5 failed to reach 16.0

Coldest December max was 15.2 on Xmas Eve 1870. That was in the middle of a horrific stretch of weather - http://www.australianweathernews.com/data/archive/66/1870_12.HTM.
 

Wavey

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Jul 3, 2019
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Wollongong, NSW
Thankfully the early indications on the 16 day GFS are looking pretty good for some lengthy dry weather after this weekend. Looks like mainly light onshore winds so probably no particularly hot weather until maybe around the 19th-20th. I'm sure it will change but general trend is looking reasonable.
 

davidg

Part of the Furniture
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Feb 4, 2009
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Lower BM's
It basically didn't stop raining all afternoon, a positiviley miserable Sunday here in the lower BM's. Finally stopped about 30mins ago :rolleyes:

Looking rather grim this week as well, I shouldn't complain though. I think I made some sort of promise that I would never complain again about it raining after the Summers of 16/17, 18/19 and 19/20 but my resolve is certainly being tested this year!
 

Homer

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Aug 3, 2005
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Castle Hill - Sydney
Max here was 18c at 10am before it dropped to about 15-16c which is where it stayed all arvo. Currently 13c outside and drizzling.

Wasn't much better here. Was around 16-17 (reached 19 during a brief sunny spell) all day due to continual drizzle or showers. It didn't warm up much during the drier spells due to the thick southerly scud cloud cover.
I quite enjoyed it. :)
 

Wavey

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Jul 3, 2019
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Wollongong, NSW
Wasn't much better here. Was around 16-17 (reached 19 during a brief sunny spell) all day due to continual drizzle or showers. It didn't warm up much during the drier spells due to the thick southerly scud cloud cover.
I quite enjoyed it. :)
I'm absolutely loving the days like this when at work- it's a blessing as an outdoor worker in summer as you know, but it's been soooo long since we've had decent weekend weather.
 

Steve777

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Jul 4, 2019
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Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
Here’s Nobby’s Beach at Newcastle today. Conditions were, shall we say, “brisk”, with steely grey skies, but it didn’t rain while I was there. There was a lot of debris on the beach, probably washed down the Hunter River. Here’s a tree that must have been blown over and/or washed away by “inclement weather” in the Hunter Valley in recent days:

327105-E7-6-D54-4-C1-C-8931-9-B605-BB198-A2.jpg
 

Mcbobbings

Hard Yards
Jul 10, 2019
83
196
83
Macquarie Park NSW
Well it has been quite an extended period of gloomy, cloudy weather.

Since the 4th of November, OH has averaged 16.1c min, 23.4 max, and recorded 146.2mm of rain with rain on 21/32 days, and no 1 day with more than 21.4mm. It went 5 days without raining from the 29th of Nov to the 4th of December, and that's probably the longest spell we will have for a while.

Richmond during this time has been colder and wetter than OH, which is crazy for this time of year. It has averaged 15.1c min, and 23c max. 256mm of rain and rain on 22/32 days, with a 7 day dry spell in Mid Nov. It has not yet recorded a 30c temp, while OH has had 2 in that time period.
 

Steve777

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Jul 4, 2019
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Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
I’ve been looking in the models on WZ for a break in the current pattern of alternating Southerlies and cloud bands.

The threat / promise of an extreme rain event seems to have dissipated, although the cool, cloudy and sometimes wet pattern continues for another 5-6 days, with maybe a brief respite tomorrow if the mid-level cloud can give us a break. Things next improve from early next week with a couple of fine, warm days before another trough arrives.

Going further ahead, GFS is now showing a significant heatwave around the 20th-21st with 850 temps over Sydney around 22-24° rather than single figures, a high rather than a trough in the Northern Tasman and 850/700 humidity both under 90%, so not overcast. That will likely change as we get closer but hopefully not back to the recent usual. It’s just good to see something different.
 

Donza

Dogs body...
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Apr 21, 2004
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I’ve been looking in the models on WZ for a break in the current pattern of alternating Southerlies and cloud bands.

The threat / promise of an extreme rain event seems to have dissipated, although the cool, cloudy and sometimes wet pattern continues for another 5-6 days, with maybe a brief respite tomorrow if the mid-level cloud can give us a break. Things next improve from early next week with a couple of fine, warm days before another trough arrives.

Going further ahead, GFS is now showing a significant heatwave around the 20th-21st with 850 temps over Sydney around 22-24° rather than single figures, a high rather than a trough in the Northern Tasman and 850/700 humidity both under 90%, so not overcast. That will likely change as we get closer but hopefully not back to the recent usual. It’s just good to see something different.
EC still has 300mm over the next week for Narooma area.
Solid falls.
 
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connells

One of Us
Going further ahead, GFS is now showing a significant heatwave around the 20th-21st with 850 temps over Sydney around 22-24° rather than single figures, a high rather than a trough in the Northern Tasman and 850/700 humidity both under 90%, so not overcast. That will likely change as we get closer but hopefully not back to the recent usual. It’s just good to see something different.
The blue blob has finally gone from our area for the first time since forever on your fav chart https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/semaine2_combinee_e.html.

What we now deserve for the rest of Summer is for the 5760 thickness line to be smothering us. Perhaps out into the south Tasman.
Plus a stalled trough in a NW-SE angle that intersects Mallacoota.
A stationary high pressure around Lord Howe Island.
And Homer whinging like a little girl. ;)

That should balance out the past 6-7 weeks.
 
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Wavey

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Jul 3, 2019
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Wollongong, NSW
I would not be surprised to see a very warm week or two in late summer. The heat engine is building quite strongly in the NW so even though we're in a La Nina, all it takes is the right synoptic setup.
 
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Steve777

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Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
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Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
Sydney has just had a total of 12 minutes of sunshine over a period of three days (Saturday to Monday) for a total of 2 mm of rain - can definitely do better. And I would like to think that Sunday was Sydney's last sub-20 maximum until April or May although I'm not hopeful.

Regarding heat late in Summer, it should at least get warmer. The Summer of 1999-2000, which this season seems to resemble, came good in February, with an earlier three day burst of heat in January. After the cold December of 2011, it warmed up to about a degree below average for the rest of the season, with no real heat (e.g. Bankstown hottest was 36 degrees, the only day over 35 there that Summer).

===

Just hearing cicadas at home for the first time this Summer. I heard them for the first time this season in nearby bushland on Friday morning when it was sunny. It's not yet the raucous chorus of recent years. I was thinking maybe they crawled out, had a look around and though "Nah! we'll wait another year"
 

piolet

Better make it three
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May 27, 2004
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Sydney has just had a total of 12 minutes of sunshine over a period of three days (Saturday to Monday) for a total of 2 mm of rain - can definitely do better. And I would like to think that Sunday was Sydney's last sub-20 maximum until April or May although I'm not hopeful.

Regarding heat late in Summer, it should at least get warmer. The Summer of 1999-2000, which this season seems to resemble, came good in February, with an earlier three day burst of heat in January. After the cold December of 2011, it warmed up to about a degree below average for the rest of the season, with no real heat (e.g. Bankstown hottest was 36 degrees, the only day over 35 there that Summer).

===

Just hearing cicadas at home for the first time this Summer. I heard them for the first time this season in nearby bushland on Friday morning when it was sunny. It's not yet the raucous chorus of recent years. I was thinking maybe they crawled out, had a look around and though "Nah! we'll wait another year"
Beaut and sunny here rn.
Decent build ups west inbound alas
 

Steve777

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Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
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Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued for coastal areas and ranges from Bega to Inverell for DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAILSTONES and HEAVY RAINFALL. The warning area includes Sydney West of Parramatta.

Detailed warning for cells near Wollongong, Penrith and Cessnock.

EDIT. Penrith received 10 mm in about 30 minutes.
 
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Undies

Superspreadin the lurve
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May 15, 2002
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Lots of big flangs and big rain drops here in Drummoyne. Strikes about every 5-10 seconds on a very dark sky.

Is nice!
 
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