Day to Day NSW / ACT weather

Donza

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Apr 21, 2004
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Actually looks pretty good after the 25th-26th. Extended GFS has been showing at least a week of westerlies for the last few model runs up until at least June 2nd. Looks like the winds will be pretty strong too which I usually would hate but it's exactly what we need right now to dry things out.
You should see Stuart park at North Gong.

Knee high grass and a swamp. Still water laying around.
 

Long Road Home

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Aug 7, 2020
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The grass certainly getting deep, never seen it like this at dee why park. During dry years this is usually just brown grass and dirt

Screenshot_20220518-160030_Instagram.jpg
 

ShavedBadger

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7 degrees in Newcastle this morning. Felt every one of them lying on the floor of the garage at 6:30 replacing an exhaust mount rubber. So that was fun...
 
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Wavey

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Pretty cold in Albion Park this morning and I was tossing and turning last night because of the cold. Almost time for the doona but mins will warm back up over the coming days. Surprised the wind dropped which resulted in a 5.1°C min.
Also close to first frosts in the Sydney basin with 3.0 and 2.7 at Camden and Richmond respectively.
 
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Steve777

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The BOM has been boosting expected totals for the coming rain event. It is now expecting 55-105 mm for Sydney in the coming week. On recent form that’s more likely to be under rather than over. The next rain-free day looks likely to be Thursday or Friday next week.

Expected totals for Newcastle are a bit less, for Wollongong about the same. Falls drop off rapidly as you move inland with just 15-35 mm at Penrith.

The pattern that started last November continues - rain events on the coast lasting 7-10 days, sometimes longer, separated by breaks of about 4 days.

P.S. Brisbane is “enjoying” 15 consecutive rain days (for 224 mm) and counting.
 

Steve777

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Cookers? Are they “kookas”? Always love to see them.

====

Meanwhile, yet another 7-10 day wet spell got started here around 6:00 AM, with about 4 mm so far (OH) and another 60-100 mm to come. The radar shows red-core cells off the coast. At this stage they’re not penetrating very far inland.

EDIT: agree we’ll smash the forecast totals. Over the past six months we usually have.
 

Donza

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No rain in the Illawarra.

Just a greybird sky and temp locked on 14 degrees.

Heater is still on.
 
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Mcbobbings

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Jul 10, 2019
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I don't exactly know what the evaporation measurement is on the daily summaries by BOM, but year to date we are +756.3mm more rain than evaporation. I don't recall ever seeing a positive value in any month apart from 10-20mm.

I think this explains why I have had to run my dryer every single week this year.
 
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Steve777

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The shower cells over Sydney’s East, especially that now focused on Botany Bay, seem to evaporate as they move inland while back-building just off the coast. Sydney OH has had 21 mm since 6:00, already exceeding this morning's upper forecast total and counting. Little Bay and Bondi have had about 25 mm.

EDIT: rainfall since 9:00 according to the Terrey Hills radar.

1EFDC38D-808C-488A-85B1-7863007B96AD.png
 

Yogurt_FreeZone

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Steve777

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What we urgently need to do is cool down the Tasman sea off the NSW coast, It’s ridiculously warm, a Summer-like 22-23°.

Quick, get the ice buckets!

The NSW coast might be the anti-California. In California, it’s warm dry air meets cold waters —> low rainfall, sea fogs. Here, it’s cool Southern maritime air meets warm seas —> cloud and recurring rain events.
 

Homer

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These showers hitting the coast around sydney are heavy. Go from nothing to torrential in a couple of seconds.

Welcome to our world along the coast!!
They certainly look heavy and the radar isn't lying. I had one come through here this afternoon. Yellow on radar and was indeed torrential.
I'd hate to be under a red atm.
 

Jacko4650

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First post on this thread as a visitor. Gotta say I was pretty impressed with the forecasts over the past 24-36hrs. I'm here at Brou Lake, just north of Dalmeny hearing the forecast of rain from Batemans Bay north. Incredibly precise; as I have watched the dark clouds form almost exactly as forecast along the coast, enjoying sun & scattered cloud accordingly to the south where I am! I wish they could be that precise elsewhere?
 

Wavey

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Grass is absolutely sodden again after 25mm since 9am at Bellambi. The mind boggles at how much the models are underestimating these rain events. The only one that was remotely close a few days ago was GFS
 

Steve777

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Sydney’s maximum for the 24 hours to 9:00 was 14.9°. That’s the coldest day since August 24 and the coldest May maximum in 6 years (old and new sites), although unremarkable on a longer view. It was 3° lower than the BOM had forecast, no doubt owing to persistent showers and thick, unbroken cloud cover. The event rainfall so far is 33 mm.

Today looks a lot better. The showers have stayed away and there are patches of blue with sunny breaks. Whatever was causing the persistent showers yesterday seems to have shifted South and fizzled. Meanwhile, Newcastle is now being targeted.
 
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