Day to Day NSW / ACT weather

Steve777

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Jul 4, 2019
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Nice to feel some warmth in today’s sunshine and breeze. It was the first day over 20° in three weeks.

Today was it, however. Tomorrow will be cooler but mostly fine. After tomorrow the models show SE winds persisting on the NSW coast indefinitely - out to the end of their runs. Troughs with lows and heavy rain develop but stay North then get pushed out to sea. Even so, cloud and showery conditions hang about on the coast. GFS hints at significant rain on the NSW Coast near the end of its run, but hopefully that doesn’t come off.
 

Ken Kato

A Local
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Jul 13, 2019
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Brisbane
This may interest those who use Meteologix or its affiliate weather.us - they've recently added a multimodel option. You'll have to select the "All" option under the Model Run subsection, not just Model Comparison.

That multimodel option allows you to view new multimodel maps such as thunderstorm risk expressed as probabilities, a flash flood index (not sure what the values on their scale stand for though... maybe it's runoff or something), precip (I'm assuming they're using a multimodel mean for the amounts although the probability ones use the percentages of the models going for X scenario), and various other parameters similar to those from the EC ensemble that are already available on there.

No idea which models they use for that multimodel option though.
 
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Fozzie Bear

Where's my flapping ears gone.....
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Jun 2, 2014
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Was a magic morning. Walked to the gym at 6:30 wearing a short sleeved vest. Walk past beach (Manly) afterwards and had a very summer feel, though the B & B water temp chalking said 16.3c in the briny. Wind now whipping across the harbour keep the temps down.
 
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Long Road Home

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Aug 7, 2020
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The first lot of showers starting to form on and off the Illawarra along a change (southerly meets westerly). Water temps are still fairly warm so plenty of energy there to work with. The model consensus is 25-50mm although like previous events isolated falls of 100mm not out of the question.
 
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Wavey

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Jul 3, 2019
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Wollongong, NSW
The first lot of showers starting to form on and off the Illawarra along a change (southerly meets westerly). Water temps are still fairly warm so plenty of energy there to work with. The model consensus is 25-50mm although like previous events isolated falls of 100mm not out of the question.

Yep and looks like the models yet again are grossly underestimating the rainfall that will occur tonight.

Also GFS is has got snow icons showing up for later tonight around Robertson. It's 8°C in Nowra right now and I have seen snowflakes before at Kangaloon when it was 8°C with rain at Nowra. Would not even take much for some snowflakes at Moss Vale with 4°C and 0°C dew point right now, meaning the temp could probably drop a couple of degrees with any shower activity. That difference between the temp and dew point also allows snow to fall at higher temps than if the air was more saturated.
 

Sean G

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Aug 8, 2019
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Lithgow
Another still, fairly clear night in Lithgovia. Big jacket needed for the stroll home from night shift.

3C87DA48-B8E3-4F94-9128-D1FFD4F34676.jpeg
 

Yogurt_FreeZone

Two of them
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Dec 28, 2020
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St George, Sydney Metro
How is the eroded sand-dune/cliff face supporting the ground in front of the Tower going to come back?

Bob was very busy this morning at both North Cronulla and Wanda Beaches (road onto beach) installing the new sea walls/buffers to replace the Dunes, and safeguard against further beach and dune erosion, and infrastructure behind the dunes, erosion, damage and destabilisation.

The natural return of the sandy beach is off to a very rocky start.

North Cronulla Rocks!

IMG_1833.jpeg
IMG_1819.jpeg
IMG_1818.jpeg
IMG_1817.jpeg


IMG_1821.jpeg
 
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Fozzie Bear

Where's my flapping ears gone.....
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Jun 2, 2014
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Bob was very busy this morning at both North Cronulla and Wanda Beaches (road onto beach) installing the new sea walls/buffers to replace the Dunes, and safeguard against further beach, dune, and infrastructure behind the dunes, erosion, damage and destabilisation.

The natural return of the sandy beach is off to a very rocky start.

North Cronulla Rocks!

IMG_1833.jpeg
IMG_1819.jpeg
IMG_1818.jpeg
IMG_1817.jpeg


IMG_1821.jpeg

Dunno. Thought the idea behind taking all the sand away was to turn Kurnell back into an island?
 
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Yogurt_FreeZone

Two of them
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Dec 28, 2020
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The temp is back down to 11C near the Sydney Coast after struggling to reach much more than 13C across much of the Eastern flank of Greater Sydney today.

With waves of light showers from the SE crossing the coast but not getting very far inland.
With fresh to strong S-SW winds in most near the coast locations.
 
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Homer

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Aug 3, 2005
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Castle Hill - Sydney
The question remains, how long is this continuation of weekly rainfalls going to continue?
Thankfully, I worked an 11 hour day yesterday, just to get a roof on a semi-detached house in Rosebury, so now I can finally work unhindered by the weather as there is shite loads to do inside.
These weekly wet spells however are really doing my head in.
As I type, steady rain has again began falling in Castle Hill. The showers don't last long, but, I'm so over the constant damp.
 

Steve777

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Jul 4, 2019
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Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
There was a bit of sunshine this morning. Given the minimum of 7.2°, it must have been reasonably clear overnight. However, it‘s been dismal light, persistent rain since early afternoon. The car thermometer was showing 10° at 3:00 PM.

Looking at the radar on WZ “Layers” over a duration of 2-3 hours, the showers are again concentrating on the Central Part of the coast between Seal Rocks and Jervis Bay. The radar shows them oozing out of the Ocean a little offshore and heading WNW, evaporating well before they reach the Divide.
 

davidg

Old n' Crusty
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Feb 4, 2009
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It's absolutely pouring here, very surprised about that. Looks like the models have slightly more rain for most of the other days this week as well. Hoping I should escape the rain tomorrow as I'm working in Western Sydney and it's all outdoor work.
I don't like your chances unless you're all done by about 11am
 

Steve777

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Jul 4, 2019
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Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
The question remains, how long is this continuation of weekly rainfalls going to continue?
Thankfully, I worked an 11 hour day yesterday, just to get a roof on a semi-detached house in Rosebury, so now I can finally work unhindered by the weather as there is shite loads to do inside.
These weekly wet spells however are really doing my head in.
As I type, steady rain has again began falling in Castle Hill. The showers don't last long, but, I'm so over the constant damp.
The Elders 28 day forecast suggests a return to something like a more normal pattern from early next week. My interpretation of the probabilities is measurable rainfall on 6 or 7 of the 22 days July 26 to August 16, although we now early in yet another 7+ day rainfall event.


But don’t look at the 12 month forecast.
 

Mcbobbings

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Jul 10, 2019
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Macquarie Park NSW
There has been less rain than I thought today so far, which is good. But showers look like moving their way onshore by the radar for later this afternoon.

I have done a quick look at Sydney Monthly Rain Records, particularly how "strong" or "weak" a record is. This year there have been two record rainfall months at OH, March and July. I had never really looked at the records before, but July is the weakest record OH has. The previous record of 336mm was only 3.5x the monthly average, which is the lowest for any month. November's record of 517mm is the strongest, at 6.2x the monthly average.

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecAnnual
Average
101.2​
119.3​
131.6​
126.5​
117.4​
133.1​
96.3​
80.2​
68.1​
76.7​
83.8​
77.1​
1213.4​
Record
387.1​
630.6​
554​
622.1​
585​
642.7​
336.1​
482.6​
355.8​
285​
517.2​
401.9​
2194​
x of Avg
3.8​
5.3​
4.2​
4.9​
5.0​
4.8​
3.5​
6.0​
5.2​
3.7​
6.2​
5.2​
1.8​
 

Steve777

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Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
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Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
Mostly cloudy today with periods of annoying light rain. OH received 5.2 mm since 9:00, mostly in 15 minutes around 3:00 PM.

There were sunny periods in the afternoon. For posterity, here’s a picture of what was briefly an OK-looking day (if you pointed the phone in the right direction).

3-DEDABE2-C556-4-E73-9-DFE-A98-DB3-DB47-FE.jpg


The BOM are forecasting another 18-40 mm for Sydney over the coming week. Its “event total“ so far is 18 mm.
 

Long Road Home

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Aug 7, 2020
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Big grin on my face when i opened OCF and saw 0mm forecast for sydney next week. Oh can it finally be....the light at the end of the tunnel?
All it takes is one upper trough to rear its ugly head and we're back to this again. But I feel the pattern may be changing at last.
 
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Homer

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Aug 3, 2005
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Castle Hill - Sydney
Big grin on my face when i opened OCF and saw 0mm forecast for sydney next week. Oh can it finally be....the light at the end of the tunnel?
All it takes is one upper trough to rear its ugly head and we're back to this again. But I feel the pattern may be changing at last.

I really hope you are right.
We had a beautiful weekend, but now we are back to 5/6 days of rain (including the past 2).
Building sites are a quagmire and the rain has seriously killed progression.
 

Eddy

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Jul 4, 2019
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Port Stephens
It's quite mild and humid here with that Easterly blowing and mostly sunny too.
Took a chance and did some weed spraying this morning, so hoping it stays dry for at least another couple of hours.
Currently 19c.
 
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Homer

One of Us
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Aug 3, 2005
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Castle Hill - Sydney
Didn't get much rain while working at Rosebury today. Just some occassional showers, although some could be considered heavy. They didn't last long though. Maybe 10 mins max.
Meanwhile, back here at Castle Hill it has been extremely damp this evening since I arrived home around 3.30.
 
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Homer

One of Us
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Aug 3, 2005
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Castle Hill - Sydney
@Steve777 suggested the other day that the BOM would under-estimate totals for this small event.
Well, they didn't even get close today.
I accept it's a difficult job to forecast where and when showers will develop. It's just impossible.
Maybe, just maybe, they need to refine their percentage range forecasts for such uncertain events.

10-15 was forecast for OH today and most of the metro. Even less in the west.
Current totals are....

1658483545943.png
 
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Donza

Dogs body...
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Apr 21, 2004
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woonona
@Steve777 suggested the other day that the BOM would under-estimate totals for this small event.
Well, they didn't even get close today.
I accept it's a difficult job to forecast where and when showers will develop. It's just impossible.
Maybe, just maybe, they need to refine their percentage range forecasts for such uncertain events.

10-15 was forecast for OH today and most of the metro. Even less in the west.
Current totals are....

1658483545943.png
Yet for us in Wollongong.
15 to 25 was forecast.
We are on 6mm since midnight
 
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